Roster turnover

[Hammettf2b]

One thing that people seem to overlook is that UFA's have to actually WANT to sign here. Why would Krug come to this dumpster fire? Just because he's from Michigan originally? C'mon. A few years ago when we were starting our downward decline, Anton Stralman refused to sign here and I think he was public about it. Top UFA's don't want to sign with bad teams

We don't have Babcock holding us down from big UFA signings anymore! Of course players will want to sign here!!!

 

[TCNorthstars]

This roster is actually pretty good! The sonofabitch pulled it off!

Pulled off putting us right back where we were just prior to the streak ending when everybody was screaming for a rebuild? You know, bubble playoffs and empty prospect cupboard.

 

[Frk It]

Pulled off putting us right back where we were just prior to the streak ending when everybody was screaming for a rebuild? You know, bubble playoffs and empty prospect cupboard.

Having Zadina, Lafreniere, and Seider on the roster would be right back where we were....? Hmm...

 

[TCNorthstars]

Having Zadina, Lafreniere, and Seider on the roster would be right back where we were....? Hmm...

Yes. While I like our guys, that roster is playoff bubble mediocrity. They aren't competing for cups. Maybe we get lucky when we barely miss the playoffs and win the lottery and get another superstar so who knows.

 

[Retire91]

This roster is actually pretty good! The sonofabitch pulled it off!

Good for what purpose? and for how long? Krug and Suter both take up massive cap space and move our draft position out while simultaneously aging out of effectiveness when the young guys are playoff ready and crowding out cap space for post bridge contract periods and other more badly needed UFA when the time comes. Congratulations you have taken up almost 20% of our cap with two guys who are not in our top pairing when the team starts seeing the playoffs.

If we can get Lehner we should but I seriously doubt that Vegas doesn't resign him.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

This roster is actually pretty good! The sonofabitch pulled it off!

Except I doubt Suter can be had for 2 2nd's + prospect, some team will outbid that. Also who is this "prospect"? Veleno?...Heck No!

 

[Frk It]

Yes. While I like our guys, that roster is playoff bubble mediocrity. They aren't competing for cups. Maybe we get lucky when we barely miss the playoffs and win the lottery and get another superstar so who knows.

In a sense... but...

Being a bubble team where your best players are < 25 and being a bubble team where your best players are > 35 are NOT the same thing... like at all.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

In a sense... but...

Being a bubble team where your best players are < 25 and being a bubble team where your best players are > 35 are NOT the same thing... like at all.

The LAST thing I want right now is to be a bubble team. The depth of maturing prospects and the total absence of a clear 1C and 1D PMD is obvious right now. The surest way to get there is with Top 5 picks. We are just not at the point yet where we need to be "putting it together" and knocking on the playoffs. Last thing we need is to overachieve and end up with midteen picks until we close the talent gap in our main club and in the system

 

[Frk It]

The LAST thing I want right now is to be a bubble team. The depth of maturing prospects and the total absence of a clear 1C and 1D PMD is obvious right now. The surest way to get there is with Top 5 picks. We are just not at the point yet where we need to be "putting it together" and knocking on the playoffs. Last thing we need is to overachieve and end up with midteen picks until we close the talent gap in our main club and in the system

The original post I quoted was under the assumption we have Lafreniere. I would be OK with overachieving with a #1 pick under our belt, personally.

With the old lottery system, I would agree with everything you say here... but with the new lottery? Different ball game.

 

[TCNorthstars]

In a sense... but...

Being a bubble team where your best players are < 25 and being a bubble team where your best players are > 35 are NOT the same thing... like at all.

A bubble team is a bubble team regardless of the age of its best players. The fact is we are still a bubble team with bare cupboards as far as prospects go after these deals. What does age matter if you are stuck in that bubble team rut?

 

[Retire91]

The original post I quoted was under the assumption we have Lafreniere. I would be OK with overachieving with a #1 pick under our belt, personally.

With the old lottery system, I would agree with everything you say here... but with the new lottery? Different ball game.

We need more than 1 top 5 pick, this team is too short stocked to think we can without it. I mean unless Lafreniere is McDavid or Ovechkin level.

I am not saying you gun for that top 5 pick but what is the point of UFA'n your way to bubble when your core is bare. It does nothing but spin tires.

 

[Hammettf2b]

We need more than 1 top 5 pick, this team is too short stocked to think we can without it. I mean unless Lafreniere is McDavid or Ovechkin level.

I am not saying you gun for that top 5 pick but what is the point of UFA'n your way to bubble when your core is bare. It does nothing but spin tires.

I would hardly call the proposed bare imo.

 

[Retire91]

I would hardly call the proposed bare imo.

We still need to stock the top pairing, we still need a number one goalie, we still don't have a number 1 center. We are still missing two top 6 wingers.

We have people in the pipeline that could 'potentially' fill some of these spots. However goalie and top line center are still missing even in our cupboard.

We looking at the same roster?

 

[Winger98]

Oh no doubt if its 2-3 seasons I would jump on it, but I struggle to think of Krug signing a 2-3 year contract at the peak of his career with his track record and I don't think this team is going playoff in 3 years. I know some people are optimistic. Abby's contract is still with us in 3 years and we need more top 5 picks than just this season, this team is not as far out of the woods as some people hope.

Oh, we still sign Krug to that six or seven year deal, it's just what it would take. But it's worth it if we're actually a decent team for half of it.

I'm more where I think @Frk It and a few others are, though, who just don't trust the draft lotto to not routinely screw us. I mean, it's essentially built to knock teams down the draft order while randomly rewarding a couple of teams every year. And even if we sign Krug, I think we are still comfortably within the lotto for the next couple of years - especially if we slow roll the prospects from GR into Detroit.

I mean, to guarantee a top5 pick, the Wings have to be one of the two worst teams in the league. I'm just not sure it's worth it to the organization to ice a team that's basically guaranteed of that. And whether we're the 31st team or the 26th team, I don't think any of us would be surprised if we ended up picking third under either scenario. The draft lotto is just screwed up.

But not being able to rely on the lotto means we probably need to be more...adventurous?...in pursuing a guy like Krug. at least if Yzerman thinks three years is doable. I think he sees the window a bit further out, though.

One thing that people seem to overlook is that UFA's have to actually WANT to sign here. Why would Krug come to this dumpster fire? Just because he's from Michigan originally? C'mon. A few years ago when we were starting our downward decline, Anton Stralman refused to sign here and I think he was public about it. Top UFA's don't want to sign with bad teams

I think Stralman wasn't a fan of other aspects of the team than where it was in the standings. It's been awhile, that's what I remember. and, yeah, being the home town team doesn't hurt. neither does being able to offer term, cap, and preferential IT.

 

[Hammettf2b]

We still need to stock the top pairing, we still need a number one goalie, we still don't have a number 1 center. We are still missing two top 6 wingers.

We have people in the pipeline that could 'potentially' fill some of these spots. However goalie and top line center are still missing even in our cupboard.

We looking at the same roster?

I think
Bert-Larkin-Mantha
Lafrenière/Fabbri-Strome-Zadina
is a pretty decent top 6 pair of wingers? which 2 would you replace?

 

[Retire91]

We don't have Strome, Zadina still has a lot to prove. Lafreniere isn't even an NHL player yet. So I guess the 1 I replace or, more accurately, draft some insurance on is Zadina. And as for Lafrenière Strome let's actually have them first before penciling them in

 

[ShelbyZ]

What if Krug signs for a discount because he wants to play for Jeff Blashill again?

 

[Hammettf2b]

We don't have Strome, Zadina still has a lot to prove. Lafreniere isn't even an NHL player yet. So I guess the 1 I replace or, more accurately, draft some insurance on is Zadina. And as for Lafrenière Strome let's actually have them first before penciling them in

I think you are confusing what the original post was about. I never said these players are penciled in. As a matter of fact I specifically stated it wouldn't happen. It was basically for entertainment purposes.

 

[Frk It]

A bubble team is a bubble team regardless of the age of its best players. The fact is we are still a bubble team with bare cupboards as far as prospects go after these deals. What does age matter if you are stuck in that bubble team rut?

All bubble teams are definitely not equal. There are some on the upswing vs some on the down swing. Towards the end of the streak it was very clear we were a bubble team on the down swing.

Most of the legit contenders were bubble teams before arriving. Hell,I think the Kings were a 10 seed with 1 month left in the season in 11-12 where they won the Cup led by a 24 year old Kopitar and 22 year old Doughty.

 

[Retire91]

I feel like its okay to be a bubble team when you have that 20-26 year old core established and that core is really starting to kick into gear for playoff mode. The definition of established might be where oppinions differ. I don't count players like Seider, Hronek, Zadina in our core yet until they show the same kind of consistency as Bert Larkin Mantha. If we UFA all our top positions with 28-32 year olds and players like Seider, Hronek, Zadina don't pan out and this years lottery pick busts then we are in a world of hurt. Because the UFA's take away our lottery picks when we had the chance.

We need much more insurance on our core then some people are thinking. If you start plugging UFA's now then those UFA's are a huge negative if your core misfires. Pretty much exactly what happened to Holland except even Holland's UFA's misfired.

I really can not even comprehend the notion of beefing up this team with UFA right now just to get bubble hockey for a few seasons at the risk of an entire decade of mediocrity. It so totally defies logic I want to get up and walk off my balcony.

If you want to see someone trying to UFA accelerate to the cup just look at Brian Burke's Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

[TCNorthstars]

All bubble teams are definitely not equal. There are some on the upswing vs some on the down swing. Towards the end of the streak it was very clear we were a bubble team on the down swing.

Most of the legit contenders were bubble teams before arriving. Hell,I think the Kings were a 10 seed with 1 month left in the season in 11-12 where they won the Cup led by a 24 year old Kopitar and 22 year old Doughty.

I'll give you that there are the upswing and downswing differences. And I wasn't saying the roster construction would be anywhere near the same. I was saying that we would be a constant bubble team and not legit contenders.

Kings are a horrible example though. With that constructed roster we barely have a Jeff Carter let alone a Kopitar. We don't have a Doughty. We don't have a Quick. We don't have any high draft pics that can become those guys. With that roster we would be super lucky to be the 03-04 to 13-14 Sharks. Unless we missed a couple of times and God smiled on our lottery balls.

I don't want to be in the "just get in and anything can happen" camp for the next 10 years.

 

[Henkka]

If you want to see someone trying to UFA accelerate to the cup just look at Brian Burke's Toronto Maple Leafs.

I think it's the exact opposite. This team needs generally more talent and also UFAs to play with kids. Talent needs talent to learn.

Also, comapring to Brian Burke Leafs -eara UFAs is just not comparable and stupid. UFAs are now younger than ever, and for 27-year-old, you pretty much get 5 prime years and if the deal is 6-7 years, it's a fine deal. Signing 31-year olds maybe was the kiss of death in the past.

UFAs will carry the team first and kids take the torch later. Kids need elite talent to play with and learn how to play with elite talent. Kids playing with scrubs won't become elite.

That's the way it goes.

 

[Frk It]

Kings are a horrible example though. With that constructed roster we barely have a Jeff Carter let alone a Kopitar. We don't have a Doughty. We don't have a Quick. We don't have any high draft pics that can become those guys. With that roster we would be super lucky to be the 03-04 to 13-14 Sharks. Unless we missed a couple of times and God smiled on our lottery balls.

I don't want to be in the "just get in and anything can happen" camp for the next 10 years.

Yeah that part... I can't debate lol. I get where you are coming from there.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Also, comapring to Brian Burke Leafs -eara UFAs is just not comparable and stupid. UFAs are now younger than ever, and for 27-year-old, you pretty much get 5 prime years and if the deal is 6-7 years, it's a fine deal. Signing 31-year olds maybe was the kiss of death in the past.

Ummmm... The default UFA age has been 27 since the offseason before Burke was hired as Leafs GM....

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Some quick normalized data: taking points per 82 games - averaged over the last three years - with a slight boost (10% year over year improvement due to any factor like player development, conditioning, etc.) - our top looks like - Player (age, pts):

Mantha (26, ~65pt) - Larkin (24, ~73pt) - Bertuzzi (26, 53pt)

Assuming the same for our next line, except a -10% product for Filppula given age - and baselining Lafreniere to a general comparable (Last 5 season point leading wingers in their rookie years: Nylander, Laine, Keller, Tkachuk, Kubalik)

Lafreniere (18, 60pt) - Filppula (36, 32pt) - Zadina (21, 48pt)

The painfully obvious gap here in terms of value/age/point production here is our 2C. Now I'm continuing to keep Val here because of his ice time, FO's, etc. as a Center but again, our need for a legit Top 6 Center is noticeable even with our core. Now we have three great options again:

1) Wait for Veleno and hopes he becomes that guy but it feels we are a few years out
2) Sign a Free Agent but a quality C will be hard to come by and will most likely be the wrong age as the core as well as being quite expensive
3) Draft a Center with our 1st Rd

I know it sounds painful to have to live through another weak season but the chance of securing a high quality Rookie C's that are taken int he Top 10 picks who can in their first year get north of 60 points isn't terrible. It's another year of rough sledding, acquiring and stockpiling picks. Restocking the farm, and pressing a high quality 1st Rd pick into our Top 6 and I like where we are in the 2o22 Season