Roster speculation XVIII - We're getting closer to things happening!

[joshjull]

I don't even know if that's "best case" because opportunity distribution between those pairings is going to be a giant headache. There probably isn't an available defenseman who can turn Risto into a net positive in his current role, and then you're giving the choicest offensive minutes to a bottom four who's best offensive player is... Bogosian? Eventually McCabe? Ehhhhh. Plus, however you split things up, you're gonna have to deal with Gorges-Bogo never having the puck.

I guess you'd have to do something like:

X-Risto (High minutes, ~50% OZS, High QoC)
Gorges-Bogo (Med Minutes ~45% OZS, med-low QoC)
McCabe-Pysyk (Low minutes ~55% OZS, med-low QoC)

But we have a coach who wants to use his best players to stop the bleeding rather than drive play, and values physique and style of play over actual impact soooooooo...

This cracked me up and made all sorts of creepy ideas pop into my head as to how Disco checked on this.

 

[TehDoak]

McCabe and Pysyk is a better pair than Gorges and Bogosian.

Potentially sure. I'd love to see McCabe and Pysyk surpass a healthy Gorges/Bogo, that would mean our defense is much improved based on the improvement of your young d-men.

I don't even know if that's "best case" because opportunity distribution between those pairings is going to be a giant headache. There probably isn't an available defenseman who can turn Risto into a net positive in his current role, and then you're giving the choicest offensive minutes to a bottom four who's best offensive player is... Bogosian? Eventually McCabe? Ehhhhh. Plus, however you split things up, you're gonna have to deal with Gorges-Bogo never having the puck.

I guess you'd have to do something like:

X-Risto (High minutes, ~50% OZS, High QoC)
Gorges-Bogo (Med Minutes ~45% OZS, med-low QoC)
McCabe-Pysyk (Low minutes ~55% OZS, med-low QoC)

But we have a coach who wants to use his best players to stop the bleeding rather than drive play, and values physique and style of play over actual impact soooooooo...

Gologoski was able to do this to some extent with Klingberg in Dallas.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Gogo is a weird one for me. His splits from Dallas are stupendous, but I remember Stars' fans talking all types of **** until Klingberg got there and really solidified their blueline. He was also ehhhhhh in the playoffs. I think Demers is going to be the best UFA Dallas D, but I'm apparently alone in that opinion.

Also also, Goligoski didn't/doesn't have any experience in Risto's current role. He's always played with Dallas' best forwards in neutral to offensive territory.

 

[sabrebuild]

Most view him as a 2nd pairing dman. Not sure how that fits with what your saying about expectations

If by second pairing you mean the 4th guy who needs to be protected, sure. But that's not someone who is important or will be top 4 in the sense they actively help tilt the ice for you.

Maybe it's a semantic disconnect for me, but in a world where hammer and bogo are both "top 4" guys, the term itself is pointless.

 

[1972]

If by second pairing you mean the 4th guy who needs to be protected, sure. But that's not someone who is important or will be top 4 in the sense they actively help tilt the ice for you.

Maybe it's a semantic disconnect for me, but in a world where hammer and bogo are both "top 4" guys, the term itself is pointless.

Please........

When Bogosian is actually healthy he doesn't he is more then capable in a big role. I love how everyone brings up Hammer, who plays on a stacked team with great forwards and Keith/Seabrook on the blueline. You don't think Bogosian would absolutely flourish behind those two? Ofcourse he does.

 

[dkollidas]

Put this on the main board, just reasoning for Hampus Lindholm becoming available, to me he will be this year's version of Saad/Hamilton... And if I'm right, I highly expect Tim Murray to be front and center on a trade before July 1st, hopefully it'll be Friday night.

I feel bad for the fact that Anaheim fans believe all of these things simultaneously...

1. Lindholm's trade value is enormous, like Jack Eichel or McDavid enormous.
-it's big, but not that big. He's good, he's got top pair ability and potential, but he's not a legit #1 yet.

2. If he is offer sheeted, Anaheim fans believe it will be matched up to $8/$9 Million annual cap hit.
-I personally think anything above $6M aav will be difficult for them to match.

3. Despite the fact he hasn't re-signed with the Ducks, and that GM Bob Murray has stated that negotiations could go until August/September, with this good of a player, Anaheim fans think the idea of another team offer sheeting Lindholm is ridiculous.
- I believe that if he is not re-signed or traded by July 1st, he will sign an offer sheet.

4. Anaheim's internal budget doesn't limit them from putting so much money on one player on the back end.
-This is a team with almost 10 NHL ready(or near ready) defensemen in the organization, NOT including Lindholm (Fowler, Vatanen, Manson, Bieksa, Theodore, Despres, Holzer, Montour, Larsson, Stoner).

5. That an organization, without an analytics department, will recognize the value of a player who's value is most visible when looking at advanced statistics...

6. That this can all be solved simply by "dumping contracts", the main contracts being Stoner/Bieksa/Despres.
- The only teams that need to take on cap dumps are New Jersey, Carolina, and Arizona. Both New Jersey and Carolina have taken on their presumptive dumps. Arizona can find more than a few dumps of "higher quality" and, more importantly, shorter term. Stoner is still valued by Ducks management, and has two years left on his deal. Bieksa has a no movement clause and wants to play for a winner, not a cap dump team. Despres has concussion issues and a ton of term left on his deal...


I'm sorry Ducks fans...

I'm not trying be a jerk, or a pessimist, or insult your intelligence... As a Sabres fan (sorry I know Weve pissed you guys off pretty badly with this whole thing), I've seen an off season where we lost our two best players (Drury and Briere) and our 3rd best player (arguably) get signed to an offersheet (Vanek). This is real. It happens. There are limited finances in the organization and that is evident.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Please........

When Bogosian is actually healthy he doesn't he is more then capable in a big role. I love how everyone brings up Hammer, who plays on a stacked team with great forwards and Keith/Seabrook on the blueline. You don't think Bogosian would absolutely flourish behind those two? Ofcourse he does.

What about Chris Tanev, who doesn't have the whole "stacked team around him" thing, a more difficult role, and still utterly destroys Bogosian in viewing and on the spreadsheet?

 

[AustonsNostrils]

What about Chris Tanev, who doesn't have the whole "stacked team around him" thing, a more difficult role, and still utterly destroys Bogosian in viewing and on the spreadsheet?

How did Tanev enter this debate, who was saying Bogosian is equal to Tanev? Tanev is a terrific dman, if he had some offensive talent he'd be among the best in the league.

 

[1972]

What about Chris Tanev, who doesn't have the whole "stacked team around him" thing, a more difficult role, and still utterly destroys Bogosian in viewing and on the spreadsheet?

Umm he's a better player then Bogosian?

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

It was an example of a player who's Hjalmarsson's equal being way better than Bogosian without all the fancy teammate help.

Also, Brent Seabrook was not good this season, and the less-spry version of him is pretty comparable to Bogo. So it's not like "playing for the Blackhawks" really does anything.

 

[Jame]

If you're not a top 30 defensemen and you've played enough NHL games for the word "potential" to no longer be part of your narrative... Then you apparently just aren't good.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Put this on the main board, just reasoning for Hampus Lindholm becoming available, to me he will be this year's version of Saad/Hamilton... And if I'm right, I highly expect Tim Murray to be front and center on a trade before July 1st, hopefully it'll be Friday night.

I feel bad for the fact that Anaheim fans believe all of these things simultaneously...

1. Lindholm's trade value is enormous, like Jack Eichel or McDavid enormous.
-it's big, but not that big. He's good, he's got top pair ability and potential, but he's not a legit #1 yet.

2. If he is offer sheeted, Anaheim fans believe it will be matched up to $8/$9 Million annual cap hit.
-I personally think anything above $6M aav will be difficult for them to match.

3. Despite the fact he hasn't re-signed with the Ducks, and that GM Bob Murray has stated that negotiations could go until August/September, with this good of a player, Anaheim fans think the idea of another team offer sheeting Lindholm is ridiculous.
- I believe that if he is not re-signed or traded by July 1st, he will sign an offer sheet.

4. Anaheim's internal budget doesn't limit them from putting so much money on one player on the back end.
-This is a team with almost 10 NHL ready(or near ready) defensemen in the organization, NOT including Lindholm (Fowler, Vatanen, Manson, Bieksa, Theodore, Despres, Holzer, Montour, Larsson, Stoner).

5. That an organization, without an analytics department, will recognize the value of a player who's value is most visible when looking at advanced statistics...

6. That this can all be solved simply by "dumping contracts", the main contracts being Stoner/Bieksa/Despres.
- The only teams that need to take on cap dumps are New Jersey, Carolina, and Arizona. Both New Jersey and Carolina have taken on their presumptive dumps. Arizona can find more than a few dumps of "higher quality" and, more importantly, shorter term. Stoner is still valued by Ducks management, and has two years left on his deal. Bieksa has a no movement clause and wants to play for a winner, not a cap dump team. Despres has concussion issues and a ton of term left on his deal...


I'm sorry Ducks fans...

I'm not trying be a jerk, or a pessimist, or insult your intelligence... As a Sabres fan (sorry I know Weve pissed you guys off pretty badly with this whole thing), I've seen an off season where we lost our two best players (Drury and Briere) and our 3rd best player (arguably) get signed to an offersheet (Vanek). This is real. It happens. There are limited finances in the organization and that is evident.

Heres my response from that thread

1) Those valuations aren't what we think he's worth in a bubble, that's the type of price it would take to pry him out of our cold dead hands. We are trying to win right now, and he's our best defenseman. You don't trade a Dman like that for anything short of a franchise center, and even that isn't a present need given what we have down the middle. You cannot come up with any realistic trade for Lindholm that makes sense for the Ducks from a pure hockey perspective.

2) Yes it would be difficult to match anything over 6M, but when it comes to your 22 year old best defenseman with elite potential, you match anyway and figure it out from there. The Ducks have movable money and they have the right pieces in place to go very cheap in parts of their roster. You keep your top guns and decide who needs to be kept from the next tier.

3) Other fans may have said differently, but I don't see the idea of him signing an offer sheet as being impossible by any means. I just don't think there's any chance in hell the team would let him leave for anything remotely reasonable, nor is there any precedent to suggest it.

4) Irrelevant point. The young depth behind him doesn't change the fact that Lindholm is the only young player we have with true elite potential. We are a team trying to contend, you dont win in this league without a true horse on the back end, and while we have other guys with star potential, no one has the same upside.

5) Analytics are far from the only reason to value Lindholm. If our management is unable to see the studly things he does on a nightly basis in all corners of the rink, they have completely lost their marbles. No defenseman on this team has shown the same ability to take over a game since Scott Niedermayer retired, and they would be foolish not to recognize how good he is even without ever glancing at a statistic. The analytics just happen to have caught up to his ever present ability.

6) Bieksa and Stoner are just the pure cap dumps we would hope to be rid of. There are other pieces with significant trade value if our situation calls for it. Fowler can land us a cheap young NHL forward (+) and save $3M+ in the process. You do that all day before ever considering letting go of your best Dman.

 

[sabrebuild]

Please........

When Bogosian is actually healthy he doesn't he is more then capable in a big role. I love how everyone brings up Hammer, who plays on a stacked team with great forwards and Keith/Seabrook on the blueline. You don't think Bogosian would absolutely flourish behind those two? Ofcourse he does.

I disagree. Show me when he is capable in a big role. Show me when he is capable in a medium role.

Bogo struggles with regular season decision making, playoff speed would be even worse. I sincerely doubt that bogo would excel in hammers role. That role is to steady the boat for big minutes while the Keith rests. That's not Bogosian's forte even at his best.

Look, I think Bogo looks like an impact nhler. But the problem is, like kane, he is all tools and a limited tool box, the difference being he plays a position that demands the tool box to be an impact player.

I'm open to being convinced, but I need to be shown why I should believe other than he hits and fights occasionally, which I enjoyed.

 

[Beerz]

I disagree. Show me when he is capable in a big role. Show me when he is capable in a medium role.

Bogo struggles with regular season decision making, playoff speed would be even worse. I sincerely doubt that bogo would excel in hammers role. That role is to steady the boat for big minutes while the Keith rests. That's not Bogosian's forte even at his best.

Look, I think Bogo looks like an impact nhler. But the problem is, like kane, he is all tools and a limited tool box, the difference being he plays a position that demands the tool box to be an impact player.

I'm open to being convinced, but I need to be shown why I should believe other than he hits and fights occasionally, which I enjoyed.

He played awesome for us as soon as he got here for the 30 or so games he played to close out the season...he took Myers minutes and was getting 25 + a night.

He came back this year and played like poop for 1st half of year..whether it was from injury or not ..he played crappie. Then he closed out the year pretty good.

He doesn't have the elite iq that top pairing dma have but I think you are exaggerating his dumbnes . He's a solid second pair guy

 

[Samsonite23]

This whole Bogo-Hjarmalsson comparison is bonkers. The 2 aren't even in the same stratosphere.

 

[Beerz]

This whole Bogo-Hjarmalsson comparison is bonkers. The 2 aren't even in the same stratosphere.

I don't think they are either..I think Hammer is a top pair dman playing in the 2nd pair...because it works for Chicago.

 

[sabrebuild]

If you're not a top 30 defensemen and you've played enough NHL games for the word "potential" to no longer be part of your narrative... Then you apparently just aren't good.

No. If you are not particularly good, but get the benefit of the doubt because of draft status and fun hits, it becomes a false narrative.

Since I won't do the work, vacation time, and we disagree on the eye test, could you show why you think bogo will drive a second pair in a deep playoff run?

Because I have no need or expectation of him to be a top 30 guy, hammer or tanev level. But we do need him to be top 60 level.

I love the physical play and speed of foot for a playoff run, but I see tons of bad decisions that will cost a series if he plays big minutes.

 

[Samsonite23]

I don't think they are either..I think Hammer is a top pair dman playing in the 2nd pair...because it works for Chicago.

Alright, maybe I misread some positions in this. It seems like that was what 1972 was saying.

 

[Beerz]

No. If you are not particularly good, but get the benefit of the doubt because of draft status and fun hits, it becomes a false narrative.

Since I won't do the work, vacation time, and we disagree on the eye test, could you show why you think bogo will drive a second pair in a deep playoff run?

Because I have no need or expectation of him to be a top 30 guy, hammer or tanev level. But we do need him to be top 60 level.

I love the physical play and speed of foot for a playoff run, but I see tons of bad decisions that will cost a series if he plays big minutes.

The false narrative is you thinking bc he makes bad decisions he can't be an impact 2nd pair guy on a playoff team.
They all are prone to bone headed decisions ....I even see Suter making bone headed decisions.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Heres my response from that thread

1) Those valuations aren't what we think he's worth in a bubble, that's the type of price it would take to pry him out of our cold dead hands. We are trying to win right now, and he's our best defenseman. You don't trade a Dman like that for anything short of a franchise center, and even that isn't a present need given what we have down the middle. You cannot come up with any realistic trade for Lindholm that makes sense for the Ducks from a pure hockey perspective.

2) Yes it would be difficult to match anything over 6M, but when it comes to your 22 year old best defenseman with elite potential, you match anyway and figure it out from there. The Ducks have movable money and they have the right pieces in place to go very cheap in parts of their roster. You keep your top guns and decide who needs to be kept from the next tier.

3) Other fans may have said differently, but I don't see the idea of him signing an offer sheet as being impossible by any means. I just don't think there's any chance in hell the team would let him leave for anything remotely reasonable, nor is there any precedent to suggest it.

4) Irrelevant point. The young depth behind him doesn't change the fact that Lindholm is the only young player we have with true elite potential. We are a team trying to contend, you dont win in this league without a true horse on the back end, and while we have other guys with star potential, no one has the same upside.

5) Analytics are far from the only reason to value Lindholm. If our management is unable to see the studly things he does on a nightly basis in all corners of the rink, they have completely lost their marbles. No defenseman on this team has shown the same ability to take over a game since Scott Niedermayer retired, and they would be foolish not to recognize how good he is even without ever glancing at a statistic. The analytics just happen to have caught up to his ever present ability.

6) Bieksa and Stoner are just the pure cap dumps we would hope to be rid of. There are other pieces with significant trade value if our situation calls for it. Fowler can land us a cheap young NHL forward (+) and save $3M+ in the process. You do that all day before ever considering letting go of your best Dman.

Good points! He's a core piece, you don't get rid of a player like Lindholm under any circumstances. Everything else is irrelevant.

Which means if I were a Western Conf team, I'd offer sheet him for $8.5M AAV, longterm deal, just to screw them over and make life under the cap very difficult for them for a long time. Serves them right for hoarding defensemen.

 

[sabrebuild]

He played awesome for us as soon as he got here for the 30 or so games he played to close out the season...he took Myers minutes and was getting 25 + a night.

He came back this year and played like poop for 1st half of year..whether it was from injury or not ..he played crappie. Then he closed out the year pretty good.

He doesn't have the elite iq that top pairing dma have but I think you are exaggerating his dumbnes . He's a solid second pair guy

Ya this is just gonna be a disagreement of quality, which is fine.

I don't think he played awesome at all when he came back from the trade last year. He absolutely played a lot of minutes. And he threw some big hits.

But he also got lost in coverage a lot. Was over aggressive and got burnt. And the offense is not there to balance out these errors. I would categorize his play for that stint as ok, but with red flags considering the context of an awful team, no pressure and the typical big push by a traded player to show the new team. I understand if ppl think that is unfair.

I agree he was horrible to start this year, but give him the injury pass.

But I didn't see pretty good play to end the season. I saw some good offensive plays, but still a lot of mistakes.

I see a liability for a lot of money.

 

[Beerz]

Ya this is just gonna be a disagreement of quality, which is fine.

I don't think he played awesome at all when he came back from the trade last year. He absolutely played a lot of minutes. And he threw some big hits.

But he also got lost in coverage a lot. Was over aggressive and got burnt. And the offense is not there to balance out these errors. I would categorize his play for that stint as ok, but with red flags considering the context of an awful team, no pressure and the typical big push by a traded player to show the new team. I understand if ppl think that is unfair.

I agree he was horrible to start this year, but give him the injury pass.

But I didn't see pretty good play to end the season. I saw some good offensive plays, but still a lot of mistakes.

I see a liability for a lot of money.

That's what you see. Fair enough. I just happen to disagree with your overall assessment while acknowledging what you described did happen from time to time and is something I see happen with majority of dmen on a consistent basis.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

The false narrative is you thinking bc he makes bad decisions he can't be an impact 2nd pair guy on a playoff team.
They all are prone to bone headed decisions ....I even see Suter making bone headed decisions.

So, oh grand talent evaluator, what does he do well enough to offset this?

Pretty much all you've done in this thread is outright dismiss people's eyes and mock stats. And sure, every player makes mistakes, but Bogosians are consistently more frequent and/or costly than his peers.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Bogosian looked good in a system where he could do whatever he wanted and the results didn't matter. That's not translatable to winning teams.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

and would u prefer Myers over Bogosian?

we aren't ready for a deep run in the playoffs, if u can trade Bogosian for an upgrade, great.