Roster speculation XVIII - We're getting closer to things happening!

[joshjull]

But isn't this what the Girgensons talk boils down to? Regardless, your inference that the organization is at fault for his off season due to rushing him into the line up doesn't hold water when viewed in the expanded 2 season analysis that has been put forth on this board.

Your response to my post made no sense in the context of what I said. Which tells me you either didn't understand it or didn't care to understand it because of your Girgs' bashing crusade. I was talking about his development path to date. That he hasn't had much of a chance to take a step back and work on his game due to being rushed along in his development. Thats not about blaming its about laying out his development path so far and its impact on his growth as a player.

I don't think you understand how difficult a jump he made going from the USHL to the AHL. He understandably struggled in the AHL trying to adjust. It wasn't until later in that season that he finally got his legs under him and his game started to look decent down there. Instead of him building on that end of the season play with another year in the AHL (or at least starting there) he was in the NHL. He basically jumped 3 leagues in one year. To state the obvious, after jumping leagues like that it would take time for his overall game (offense/defense) to catch up to the league he was in. But instead of getting a chance to catch his breath after his 1st NHL season, he became our #1 center one month into his 2nd NHL season. Little was done to shelter him nor was he allowed to take a step back and work on his game much during his first two NHL seasons. It couldn't really be helped with the situation we were in trying to tank and be the worst team in the NHL. It was what it was.

Last season with the influx of talent and the change in focus from tanking to developing a winning team. Girgs was able to play a lesser role (take a step back if you will) and was tasked with working on his game. The result was noticeable growth in his defensive game with Disco making that focus for him. He was one of our better defensive players. But the negative side was his offensive game suffered. Now next season we will see if he can take the next step and grow his offensive game while keeping the defensive game strong.

Girgs was drafted as a very talented but raw player. One that already had great strength and speed but needed his game developed and fine tuned. The biggest step in that process was taken this past season. It will be built on next year. He's a young player with more development ahead of him. That you're dismissing him as being a finished product at this point is crazy to me.

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[Yatzhee]

Your response to my post made no sense in the context of what I said. Which tells me you either didn't understand it or didn't care to understand it because of your Girgs' bashing crusade. I was talking about his development path to date. That he hasn't had much of a chance to take a step back and work on his game due to being rushed along in his development. Thats not about blaming its about laying out his development path so far and its impact on his growth as a player.

I don't think you understand how difficult a jump he made going from the USHL to the AHL. He understandably struggled in the AHL trying to adjust. It wasn't until later in that season that he finally got his legs under him and his game started to look decent down there. Instead of him building on that end of the season play with another year in the AHL (or at least starting there) he was in the NHL. He basically jumped 3 leagues in one year. To state the obvious, after jumping leagues like that it would take time for his overall game (offense/defense) to catch up to the league he was in. But instead of getting a chance to catch his breath after his 1st NHL season, he became our #1 center one month into his 2nd NHL season. Little was done to shelter him nor was he allowed to take a step back and work on his game much during his first two NHL seasons. It couldn't really be helped with the situation we were in trying to tank and be the worst team in the NHL. It was what it was.

Last season with the influx of talent and the change in focus from tanking to developing a winning team. Girgs was able to play a lesser role (take a step back if you will) and was tasked with working on his game. The result was noticeable growth in his defensive game with Disco making that focus for him. He was one of our better defensive players. But the negative side was his offensive game suffered. Now next season we will see if he can take the next step and grow his offensive game while keeping the defensive game strong.

Girgs was drafted as a very talented but raw player. One that already had great strength and speed but needed his game developed and fine tuned. The biggest step in that process was taken this past season. It will be built on next year. He's a young player with more development ahead of him. That you're dismissing him as being a finished product at this point is crazy to me.

And again, no one is bashing him. I wouldn't look to move him if he's a "fit" on this team, something he's struggled mightily with since the formation of the new roster. He's a good player to be sure, just not a fit on this team IMO.

 

[Heraldic]

According to Friedman Coyotes are open to shop Hanzal if they cannot get into an agreement about his extension. I know Hanzal, as a center, is far from being a piece we should use our assets into.

But I just cannot help myself envisioning Hanzal being the third-line center and Larsson the fourth-line center.

But Hanzal, even as a pending UFA, likely is going to command a relatively hefty return, and he likely won't re-sign cheap (and perhaps not at all if he is a third-line center at best).

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

And again, no one is bashing him. I wouldn't look to move him if he's a "fit" on this team, something he's struggled mightily with since the formation of the new roster. He's a good player to be sure, just not a fit on this team IMO.

Because he hasn't been settled into one position or one line (yet, or as far as any player can under Bylsma) doesn't mean he doesn't have a fit on the team. Kane, Foligno, and Reinhart got moved around a lot. Girgensons is versatile, good defensively, a strong forechecker, and that's a good thing...not bad. Any player like that fits on any team.

 

[Yatzhee]

Because he hasn't been settled into one position or one line (yet, or as far as any player can under Bylsma) doesn't mean he doesn't have a fit on the team. Kane, Foligno, and Reinhart got moved around a lot. Girgensons is versatile, good defensively, a strong forechecker, and that's a good thing...not bad. Any player like that fits on any team.

Not necessarily.

 

[Heraldic]

Because he hasn't been settled into one position or one line (yet, or as far as any player can under Bylsma) doesn't mean he doesn't have a fit on the team. Kane, Foligno, and Reinhart got moved around a lot. Girgensons is versatile, good defensively, a strong forechecker, and that's a good thing...not bad. Any player like that fits on any team.

Yeah, I have no idea how a player who is big, fast, plays hard, is defensively good, can be slotted into any forward position and has good leadership qualities "doesn't fit on to this team".

This talk revolving around Girgs has been absolutely astonishing the whole season.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Not necessarily.

Huh? Please explain this one. Tell me how teams around the league don't have room for a player like Girgensons.

 

[sabrebuild]

And again, no one is bashing him. I wouldn't look to move him if he's a "fit" on this team, something he's struggled mightily with since the formation of the new roster. He's a good player to be sure, just not a fit on this team IMO.

Girgs not being a fit is hysterical nonsense talk.

 

[haseoke39]

It's like if Larsson learned to play wing effectively, all of a sudden we'd go "can't see where he has a role anymore."

 

[Chainshot]

Reminds me of conversations about Hecht from 5-10 years ago. He fits everywhere and does whatever is asked of him, but people gotta hate.

 

[Jame]

Yeah, I have no idea how a player who is big, fast, plays hard, is defensively good, can be slotted into any forward position and has good leadership qualities "doesn't fit on to this team".

This talk revolving around Girgs has been absolutely astonishing the whole season.

I agree. The Girgs talk has been astonishing, on both sides. There are the homer extremes and the hater extremes. Neither side gets it right.

Girgs absolutely "fits" on this team, for the time being. He checks all the boxes from a natural ability perspective (as you mentioned, speed/strength/versatitlity).

But the understanding of Girg's game and where it's at is lost in the narrative of praising or ******** on him. Girgs speed, is not offensive ability. But some people see what they want. His physical strength is not developed forechecking skill, but some people see what they want. His effort/motor is not defensive acumen and positioning. His traits, are not yet developed hockey skills. He doesn't seem to have particularly good Hockey IQ, and his development has not shown growth (not his fault at this time)

Joshjull is very correct in referring to his development path. But it's not that he was rushed, it's that he was raised in a ******/non existent system. This was his first season in a professional system. A structured game. And it showed... a lot.

He's got twice the athletic talent of Joel Ward, but the complete opposite development path that Ward had... the question is whether he can still get there. The confused narrative is those that think he's already there/assured to get there... and those that think he will never get there/can't get there.

I want Girgs to develop in to what a lot of people already think he is or can't be. But I'm not married to either outcome.

 

[Chainshot]

Joel Ward? At 22 he was in his second season in the CIS. Maybe as a modern comparable, but he's 35. This Girgensons conversation is Hecht v2.0.

 

[Jame]

Joel Ward? At 22 he was in his second season in the CIS. Maybe as a modern comparable, but he's 35. This Girgensons conversation is Hecht v2.0.

I am waning on the Hecht compare. Hecht had elite hockey IQ, in all areas of the ice, w/puck and w/o puck, wing or center. I would say this season introduced doubt in Girgs natural Hockey IQ. Could it be the system/change etc? Yea. Could it also be that he's not naturally hockey smart? Yea. It could be that too. I don't know yet, and I expect it will be a strong topic for this coming season.

Hecht was a glue guy through his hockey smarts. His natural ability to adjust to role/linemate/position... seamlessly. That's not what we saw from Girgs this year.

I went with Ward, simply because he meets the versatility (up and down the lineup), scoring depth, physical play, special teams, etc.... but he gets it done through more of that natural physical talent that Girgs seems to have (motor, effort, strength), more so than Hechtian Hockey IQ.

 

[FamilyGuy716]

Not necessarily.

I 100% disagree with this statement. Girgensons is exactly the type of player I want on our team. Big, fast, good forechecker and plays a two way game.

 

[Heraldic]

But the understanding of Girg's game and where it's at is lost in the narrative of praising or ******** on him. Girgs speed, is not offensive ability. But some people see what they want. His physical strength is not developed forechecking skill, but some people see what they want. His effort/motor is not defensive acumen and positioning. His traits, are not yet developed hockey skills. He doesn't seem to have particularly good Hockey IQ, and his development has not shown growth (not his fault at this time)

Speed alone, is neither offense or defense, and is both offense and defense.

With our totally inept play transition wise, not even Evander Kane was able to use his speed offensively.

But speed enables Girgs to execute the forechecking system better than players like Reinhart or Larsson, because he can get faster on to the guy with the puck and intercept their transition - giving time and opportunities for the defenders to pinch succesfully - leading to the regain of possession on offensive zone. And his speed allows him to backchek a lot more effective compared to smaller players.

Defensive game is not alone positioning. I have no idea where this belief is coming from. Girgs is not elite positionally, but we also witnessed Larsson several times blowing his coverage, being totally late etc. Even ROR on some occasions.

But despite that, Girgs still was the team's best player goal prevention wise - despite the role he played in. I have still have failed to see how that is explained. And for some reason I saw a single attempt on the other thread to support this "Larsson is significantly better defensively" argument. I see some vague comments here and there, but for some reason there seems to be clear reluctance to actually dig into it.

Girgs definitely has shown improvement. He was a lot more consistent defensively, and was able to produce possession better than last season. Sure, he didn't have the confidence and calmness on o-zone, but I cannot really see that having too much of a difference.

Joshjull is very correct in referring to his development path. But it's not that he was rushed, it's that he was raised in a ******/non existent system. This was his first season in a professional system. A structured game. And it showed... a lot.

So you're saying Girgs had a bad year or what?

 

[Husko]

The real question is why did Josh choose to did up a post 6 pages back in the last thread to start off this one?

 

[Heraldic]

I am waning on the Hecht compare. Hecht had elite hockey IQ, in all areas of the ice, w/puck and w/o puck, wing or center. I would say this season introduced doubt in Girgs natural Hockey IQ. Could it be the system/change etc? Yea. Could it also be that he's not naturally hockey smart? Yea. It could be that too. I don't know yet, and I expect it will be a strong topic for this coming season.

Interesting. Because it was specifically you, who started this narrative of Girgs being overrated, defensively significantly worse than Larsson, and him having low hockey IQ before the season started.

Now you say that this season introduced it...

I don't think anyone is saying that Girgs has elite hockey IQ. But he has hockey IQ enough to do a great job defensively, and support his offensively more capable linemates. He has hockey IQ good enough to generate possession, get the puck out of the d-zone after breaking the possession and keeping the game alive on o-zone. Girgs is not a playmaker or guy who is able to produce the offense by himself. His IQ/creativity is not enough for that, eventhough he might have the skillset for it.

Do you see him occasionally making positioning mistakes, bad passes etc? Of course. But that's the case with pretty much every player. He's still relatively young, and considering that he has switched between winger and center, gaining more experience will polish those flaws to some extent.

 

[Chainshot]

The real question is why did Josh choose to did up a post 6 pages back in the last thread to start off this one?

Because it's easier to copy into a new thread as a starting point. Moving on.

 

[Chainshot]

I am waning on the Hecht compare. Hecht had elite hockey IQ, in all areas of the ice, w/puck and w/o puck, wing or center. I would say this season introduced doubt in Girgs natural Hockey IQ. Could it be the system/change etc? Yea. Could it also be that he's not naturally hockey smart? Yea. It could be that too. I don't know yet, and I expect it will be a strong topic for this coming season.

Hecht was a glue guy through his hockey smarts. His natural ability to adjust to role/linemate/position... seamlessly. That's not what we saw from Girgs this year.

I went with Ward, simply because he meets the versatility (up and down the lineup), scoring depth, physical play, special teams, etc.... but he gets it done through more of that natural physical talent that Girgs seems to have (motor, effort, strength), more so than Hechtian Hockey IQ.

Both players have versatility and plus skating ability. Result vs. style -- I'm not big on direct player comparisons because it gets into this sort of thing.

If Murray decides to trade him, fine. If not, then they need to figure out what sort of player they want him to be and work with him to fill that role.

 

[Jame]

Speed alone, is neither offense or defense, and is both offense and defense.

With our totally inept play transition wise, not even Evander Kane was able to use his speed offensively.

But speed enables Girgs to execute the forechecking system better than players like Reinhart or Larsson, because he can get faster on to the guy with the puck and intercept their transition - giving time and opportunities for the defenders to pinch succesfully - leading to the regain of possession on offensive zone. And his speed allows him to backchek a lot more effective compared to smaller players.

And this is where we need to differentiate between getting in on the forecheck via speed (Strength for Girgs), and sustaining possession through that forecheck (not a strength of his). As well as, the speed to backcheck, and the IQ to take the correct line, player, lane (dubious choices throughout the season).

Defensive game is not alone positioning. I have no idea where this belief is coming from. Girgs is not elite positionally, but we also witnessed Larsson several times blowing his coverage, being totally late etc. Even ROR on some occasions.

Probably because you just invented it as a straw man argument

But despite that, Girgs still was the team's best player goal prevention wise - despite the role he played in.

And he was 8th out of 10 forwards with 40 games in QOC.

I have still have failed to see how that is explained.

a wide variety of usage/roles/QOC muddy the overall picture, especially within a small sample size.

And for some reason I saw a single attempt on the other thread to support this "Larsson is significantly better defensively" argument. I see some vague comments here and there, but for some reason there seems to be clear reluctance to actually dig into it.

Larsson is significantly better defensively. That hasn't changed. It's been validated.

Girgs definitely has shown improvement. He was a lot more consistent defensively, and was able to produce possession better than last season. Sure, he didn't have the confidence and calmness on o-zone, but I cannot really see that having too much of a difference.

Did he show improvement? Something materially more than not playing in a non existent Nolan system? We talked about his speed to get in on the forecheck, I wouldn't call that an improvement, that's his game. We've talked about his effort/motor/backcheck... improvement? No, those are attributes and abilities we knew he had. Did his playmaking improve? Nope. Did his ability as a center improve? Nope, he lost that spot. Did his scoring improve? Nope. Did his work around the net and below the goalline imprve? Nope.

Do I think that's the final word? No. I expect development from young players. And a lack of particular development at his age in a new system is concerning, but not the end of the story by any means.

So you're saying Girgs had a bad year or what?

I'm not dealing in back and white, that's a track that homers/haters take...

I am saying that his development was impacted by moving to a structured system from an unstructured system.

I am saying he didn't do enough to lock down one of the many open roster spots that he was given a chance to lock down (3C, RORWing, EICHWing PK, PP).

And he will be under the same microscope next year. I'd like to see him lock down a spot on Eichel's line. That's where he was far and away at his best.

He's a winger, not a center.
He's a starter, not a finisher.

The remaining question is whether with the experience he gained this year, and the right opportunity next year (Eichel Wing), will he show enough development that will convince the objective observers that he's something more than a Darren Helm.

There's nothing wrong with Darren Helm (I'd like to sign him). But he's a 4th liner who can step up the lineup in short windows. However, if Girgs is going to be closer to Darren Helm than a key top 9 forward, than cashing in on his perceived trade value (if it exists) would be a move of foresight.

I want Girgs to play with Eichel. I want him to use his speed to the forecheck and continually generate possession and scoring opportunities for his significantly more talented linemates. I want him to be the defensive consciousness of his line, which will require a significant improvement in his offensive zone awareness. Because the speed to get to the backcheck is one thing, but on ice awareness is another. I want him to pot 20 goals... I want most of them to be dirty, net front, 2nd chance opportunities.

I think he can get there. But he's not close based on this year.

I want him to be a 40ish point power/speed/motor element for the more talented guys he should be surrounded with. I want him to be a top 6 pain in the ass.

 

[Jame]

Both players have versatility and plus skating ability. Result vs. style -- I'm not big on direct player comparisons because it gets into this sort of thing.

I agree... although when someone picks out my Ward comparison, and suggests a better one... then it's time to go a level deeper

If Murray decides to trade him, fine. If not, then they need to figure out what sort of player they want him to be and work with him to fill that role.

Totally agree. Right now, Girgs and Pysyk are likely our most valuable NHL assets to trade, that don't create roster holes. I'm open to trading either one or both in pursuit of LD.

Ironically, I've held Girgensons in pretty high regard since we drafted him, and that's waned over the last 12 months. While Pysyk (and Armia) were picks I hated, and ragged on for years... but Pysyk has actually grown on me (even though Bylsma and Murray seem to not value him at all.

 

[OkimLom]

Interesting. Because it was specifically you, who started this narrative of Girgs being overrated, defensively significantly worse than Larsson, and him having low hockey IQ before the season started.

Now you say that this season introduced it...

I don't think anyone is saying that Girgs has elite hockey IQ. But he has hockey IQ enough to do a great job defensively, and support his offensively more capable linemates. He has hockey IQ good enough to generate possession, get the puck out of the d-zone after breaking the possession and keeping the game alive on o-zone. Girgs is not a playmaker or guy who is able to produce the offense by himself. His IQ/creativity is not enough for that, eventhough he might have the skillset for it.

Do you see him occasionally making positioning mistakes, bad passes etc? Of course. But that's the case with pretty much every player. He's still relatively young, and considering that he has switched between winger and center, gaining more experience will polish those flaws to some extent.

Maybe one can see that the root of Nolan's system is "effort". Girgs is without a doubt a hard worker and provides that effort. However, some people on the boards confused good defensive play and effort as one in the same, which is not 100% true.

Under Bylsma's system, Girgensons had to stick to skating lanes, learning how to "funnel" guys toward one side of the ice or the other to force a pass where they want him to, or if he wasn't the first one in, learn how to read where the puck was going.

Now that he had some direction of where to go with and without the puck he faltered consistently trying to understand that, as was evidenced by the multiple times he ran into either his own guys or covered the same ice as some of his teammates even though as a winger he needed to be somewhere else. He was showing signs of a player who was very slow in NHL standards in THINKING the game and decision making. He performed very well with Eichel because Eichel is more of a "off the cuff" type of player. Girgensons was able to get to play a more "reaction" to the play kind of game that effort was the key to the play.

When he had a role that called for him to stick to the system and make decisions whether it was skating lanes or staying with this man in an area of the ice , he faltered. When he could "just play hockey" and didn't worry about making decisions based on the system, he thrived.

 

[Jame]

Interesting. Because it was specifically you, who started this narrative of Girgs being overrated, defensively significantly worse than Larsson, and him having low hockey IQ before the season started.

Now you say that this season introduced it...

Different systems. Different questions about IQ.

And yes, Girgs was overrated going in to this year. You can dig the threads up yourself projecting his 50 and 60 point seasons to come.

Yes, Larsson is significantly better defensively. I think that is plain obvious at this point. But I understand there are some data points uncontextualized for role variation, time of season, etc that support the opposite argument. I'll play the long game on this one. Larsson will continue to grow as an already fantastic defensive/checking line center. Girgs will either make it as a top 6 glue/chem guy... or top out as a Helm-ish bottom 6 forward.

I don't think anyone is saying that Girgs has elite hockey IQ. But he has hockey IQ enough to do a great job defensively, and support his offensively more capable linemates.

I'm not sold on those statements... yet.

He has hockey IQ good enough to generate possession, get the puck out of the d-zone after breaking the possession and keeping the game alive on o-zone.

I would disagree with the bolded. Post possession, cycle were not good this year. his ability to win the boards and gain possession is definitely a strong suit.

Girgs is not a playmaker or guy who is able to produce the offense by himself. His IQ/creativity is not enough for that, eventhough he might have the skillset for it.

but probably not

Do you see him occasionally making positioning mistakes, bad passes etc? Of course. But that's the case with pretty much every player. He's still relatively young, and considering that he has switched between winger and center, gaining more experience will polish those flaws to some extent.

Yes. I do. And yes, all players make these mistakes. It's the frequency that is concerning.

Yes, I am looking for him to polish those mistakes this coming season, and a consistent role that suits his best skills will certainly help (Eichel's wing).

 

[Jame]

Maybe one can see that the root of Nolan's system is "effort". Girgs is without a doubt a hard worker and provides that effort. However, some people on the boards confused good defensive play and effort as one in the same, which is not 100% true.

Under Bylsma's system, Girgensons had to stick to skating lanes, learning how to "funnel" guys toward one side of the ice or the other to force a pass where they want him to, or if he wasn't the first one in, learn how to read where the puck was going.

Now that he had some direction of where to go with and without the puck he faltered consistently trying to understand that, as was evidenced by the multiple times he ran into either his own guys or covered the same ice as some of his teammates even though as a winger he needed to be somewhere else. He was showing signs of a player who was very slow in NHL standards in THINKING the game and decision making. He performed very well with Eichel because Eichel is more of a "off the cuff" type of player. Girgensons was able to get to play a more "reaction" to the play kind of game that effort was the key to the play.

When he had a role that called for him to stick to the system and make decisions whether it was skating lanes or staying with this man in an area of the ice , he faltered. When he could "just play hockey" and didn't worry about making decisions based on the system, he thrived.

Spot on.... and is exactly why he is a winger going forward and not a center...

 

[Chainshot]

I agree... although when someone picks out my Ward comparison, and suggests a better one... then it's time to go a level deeper



Totally agree. Right now, Girgs and Pysyk are likely our most valuable NHL assets to trade, that don't create roster holes. I'm open to trading either one or both in pursuit of LD.

Ironically, I've held Girgensons in pretty high regard since we drafted him, and that's waned over the last 12 months. While Pysyk (and Armia) were picks I hated, and ragged on for years... but Pysyk has actually grown on me (even though Bylsma and Murray seem to not value him at all.

Eh, has Ward ever shown the ability to fill in at multiple forward positions, namely center? He's always seemed like a RW in my memory.

Perhaps it is time to swing back around to the comments made by members of the personnel dept. when Zemgus was drafted, that some see him more as a pro style winger. In a middle-6 role? Sure. Focus him on that, work on what they want from him in those situations and let others deal with playing in the middle now that they have a couple more options.

Or trade him. Whichever path, I'm fine with it.

My short-list of "do not moves" is four players at the moment. Everything else could be in play.