Speculation: Roster Speculation Part VI: The Trade Deadline Approaches

[Sabresfansince1980]

I'm genuinely curious. Considering that most late first rounders, let alone later round picks can take on average anywhere between 2-5 years to even become a NHL rookie, what kind of time frame are you expecting that the Sabres should just stay with being patient and developing internally? Do you expect this current roster, depending basically on internal player growth/development and maybe 1-2 rookies from Rochester, random FA signings to fill out roster to be playoff bubble competitive?

I'm not hoping for just internal draft and development, nor do I expect that to be the only route. One of the big problems I had with the Kane trade was that he was only under contract during transition years that the team was still going to be bad and building. Even if he turned out well, knowing Kane's style it would be a gamble to hope he re-signed when the team actually needed him for playoffs.

So for right now, I fail to see the point in trading for players that are under contract for only another 1-3 years. Problem is, that eliminates the vast majority of (good) players that are even available in trade. Before people say Skinner only had one year...yes, but Botterill gave up minimal assets and that scenario leans toward Skinner wanting to stay in the area. So not only should a GM start digging out of a re-build through the draft first, draftees 1) need time anyway 2) are more valuable when you hit the pick 3) are under team control for longer. Then when you form a strong foundation you can look for trades knowing the strengths/weaknesses you have left.

So I would look at roughly one or two more drafts to hopefully acquire future foundational players. Same time, right now they need a checking C and top-pair RHD, and there aren't very good internal options for C, and NONE for a top-pair RHD. They're getting by with Bogosian but he's not who you're winning a Cup with in the top-four. ERod, Asplund, moving Larsson up, are all maybe solutions but it'd be nice to have a better player. I would look for those players through big trades starting a year or so away when Bogosian is set to be traded, and one of the maybe solutions proves a failure. That's when the timing is better to give up futures or prospects when you have a better grasp of your pipeline, and the roster is close enough to make a Cup run.

So I'm not all about just drafting, but right now and this summer is not the time to blow futures.

Edit - I'm definitely on board with a UFA signing, considering the good looking group coming out this summer. Pominville and Moulson coming off the books is huge, and a ton more cap space opens up the summer after.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Offer sheet Andreas Johnsson or Kapanen.

 

[truthbluth]

Offer sheet Andreas Johnsson or Kapanen.

f***’n both. Why not?

 

[jc17]

****’n both. Why not?

Probably don't have the necessary picks

 

[Zip15]

Offer sheet Andreas Johnsson or Kapanen.

Been saying it since July 2, 2018 re: Johnsson.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Describe "substantial". Mid-to-late first round picks typically are outside Dahlin and Mitts ELC before they even debut.

More than a first.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

This team is in a serious need for trades like getting an Adam Mair, or a Jochen Hecht, or a JP Dumont. Not necessarily high on the wow factor but reliable players that can be on the roster for years providing roles.

Come on. These are pre salary cap deals.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I’d be on board with offer sheeting Point. Gets two birds stoned at once.

 

[ZZamboni]

Maybe times are changing ... maybe this is the future ... but until then, I’ll predict i’ll count on two fingers how many offer sheets actually happen (not just rumors). This season.

But for fun discussion sake ... let’s offersheet like 10 different players

 

[Team Cozens]

Do we still need a 2/3C or are you satisfied with our current players development. Who would you want to replace/upgrade from this hypothetical lineup?

Skinner - Eichel - Olofsson
Sheary - Mittelstadt - Reinhart
CJ Smith - ERod - Thompson
Girgs - Larsson - Okposo

 

[kenfury]

If only we had a reliable 2 way, 2C that could shelter Mitts against tough quality of competition and transition to a 3C in a few years.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

Do we still need a 2/3C or are you satisfied with our current players development. Who would you want to replace/upgrade from this hypothetical lineup?

Skinner - Eichel - Olofsson
Sheary - Mittelstadt - Reinhart
CJ Smith - ERod - Thompson
Girgs - Larsson - Okposo

Stone would look good replacing Sheary.

 

[Chainshot]

I'm so F***ing tired of waiting for NEXT YEAR.

I'm sure not as tired as the guys on the team are.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

If only we had a reliable 2 way, 2C that could shelter Mitts against tough quality of competition and transition to a 3C in a few years.

..shut up. Please, it hurts.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

..shut up. Please, it hurts.

We do..sobotka...lmao..sorry but its so pathetic its funny.Our coach loves him..Question for you old-timers like me..Has there been a forward in the top 6 of ANY team who gets 18 min a game who has produced less than Sobotka?I honestly can't think of anyone was pondering that yesterday

 

[OkimLom]

Come on. These are pre salary cap deals.

Not sure if being snarky, but if not, these are deals you see teams perform every year to cycle in/out role players. They don’t cost much.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

We do..sobotka...lmao..sorry but its so pathetic its funny.Our coach loves him..Question for you old-timers like me..Has there been a forward in the top 6 of ANY team who gets 18 min a game who has produced less than Sobotka?I honestly can't think of anyone was pondering that yesterday

Seriously, if the rest of the NHL only knew.. the 18 minutes are what kill me. Depth player, fine I guess, but the dude has 3 goals, 10 points in infinity opportunities. Has any NHL forward ever produced so little in so much ice time? Legit question.

 

[Team Cozens]

We do..sobotka...lmao..sorry but its so pathetic its funny.Our coach loves him..Question for you old-timers like me..Has there been a forward in the top 6 of ANY team who gets 18 min a game who has produced less than Sobotka?I honestly can't think of anyone was pondering that yesterday

Our coach loves him so our GM needs to trade him. Or waive him. Anything but keep him available. Bump Mitts up to 15-17 minutes.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

Our coach loves him so our GM needs to trade him. Or waive him. Anything but keep him available. Bump Mitts up to 15-17 minutes.

Agree 100%

 

[Baccus]

I'm not hoping for just internal draft and development, nor do I expect that to be the only route. One of the big problems I had with the Kane trade was that he was only under contract during transition years that the team was still going to be bad and building. Even if he turned out well, knowing Kane's style it would be a gamble to hope he re-signed when the team actually needed him for playoffs.

So for right now, I fail to see the point in trading for players that are under contract for only another 1-3 years. Problem is, that eliminates the vast majority of (good) players that are even available in trade. Before people say Skinner only had one year...yes, but Botterill gave up minimal assets and that scenario leans toward Skinner wanting to stay in the area. So not only should a GM start digging out of a re-build through the draft first, draftees 1) need time anyway 2) are more valuable when you hit the pick 3) are under team control for longer. Then when you form a strong foundation you can look for trades knowing the strengths/weaknesses you have left.

So I would look at roughly one or two more drafts to hopefully acquire future foundational players. Same time, right now they need a checking C and top-pair RHD, and there aren't very good internal options for C, and NONE for a top-pair RHD. They're getting by with Bogosian but he's not who you're winning a Cup with in the top-four. ERod, Asplund, moving Larsson up, are all maybe solutions but it'd be nice to have a better player. I would look for those players through big trades starting a year or so away when Bogosian is set to be traded, and one of the maybe solutions proves a failure. That's when the timing is better to give up futures or prospects when you have a better grasp of your pipeline, and the roster is close enough to make a Cup run.

So I'm not all about just drafting, but right now and this summer is not the time to blow futures.

Edit - I'm definitely on board with a UFA signing, considering the good looking group coming out this summer. Pominville and Moulson coming off the books is huge, and a ton more cap space opens up the summer after.

Fair enough.

I personally feel that Botts *REALLY* needs to be far more active during the season. Especially poor seasons. Even more especially seasons that had such a gift wrapped opportunity with the win streak they had.

For the second season in a row, he's done basically nothing during the season, and I don't mean TRADE ALL THE FIRSTS. A GM should always be working the edges of his roster, either low level trades, AHL call ups to see what players are or are not in the NHL, especially when a team clearly starts heading off a cliff.

Several solid low level players have moved during this season, maybe Botts was in on trying to get them and couldn't make it work, but I certainly get no sense of that from his commentary or actions, since if he couldn't make a trade, he hasn't utilized his AHL options enough.

Yes sometimes low level moves are just rearranging the deck chairs, but there's several teams this year that seem ripe for that type of dealing (The Ducks & Oilers for example) but nothing has happened. For the second year in a row.

The team has been floundering around for too long to just be this idle.

I won't even bother getting into the coaching situation, Housley needs to go. I don't see any real growth from him from last year, and I don't see him suddenly blossoming.

 

[Baccus]

Our coach loves him so our GM needs to trade him. Or waive him. Anything but keep him available. Bump Mitts up to 15-17 minutes.

While I agree with the sentiment that Sobotka shouldn't be on the team (or have been traded for..), if our GM & coach relationship is a shitty version of the Moneyball movie scene where he has to trade players to keep the coach from playing them constantly, we should just nuke the front office.

 

[OkimLom]

Our coach loves him so our GM needs to trade him. Or waive him. Anything but keep him available. Bump Mitts up to 15-17 minutes.

Our GM is the one that brought him here in the first place. Not only that, but is Housley’s boss as well. If he wanted Mitts to get more minutes to help him develop, them he’ll tell him to play Mitts more and Sobotka less. Or better yet, if the GM is worried about the overuse of Sobotka and not getting the production, then he can do something about it to bring someone better in.

 

[hizzoner]

Our GM is the one that brought him here in the first place. Not only that, but is Housley’s boss as well. If he wanted Mitts to get more minutes to help him develop, them he’ll tell him to play Mitts more and Sobotka less. Or better yet, if the GM is worried about the overuse of Sobotka and not getting the production, then he can do something about it to bring someone better in.

There are some unrealistic expectations here. It is my opinion and don't get too hot and bothered by that, that Botterrill is looking at a longer range plan which unfortunately for many posters, excludes immediate gratification. This team still has no real identity and has so many new players who are in their first year together. Remember these new guys are from different clubs with different coaches. This is not a situation where they came through the farm system with drills and systems imposed by the NHL team. Not only that Botterrill needs to see what he has. With free agency, cap hits, upcoming expansion, waiver restrictions and players who have been slow to develop or just have not--Guhle, Nylander, Bailey, Baptiste et al-players have necessarily been in and out of the lineup. Our number one goalie this year is turning out to be a guy in his rookie year. Our top defence man is an 18 year old rookie. Many of our more experienced D have had long lasting injuries--maybe not all stars but at least guys who managed to stick it to be nhl vets and might have helped.
Housley has to give everyone a good look so Botterill can assesss and plan going forward. I watch all the games and even tape the ones I attend to see how the eye test survives a second look. I see brain farts and inexperience. I see a left side with skill and heart but little size or physical toughness--think Sheary, Skinner, Pilut, Dahlin. When the puck is in our end those guys have a lot of trouble on the boards.
I do not disagree that we need a someone who can replace ROR. We do not have anything we can afford to give up yet--and maybe Mittelstadt will become that-but not this year or maybe next. True to that we need a D man with size, experience and toughness to help out in our end--most teams do--and JB hoped Hunwick would help there while we developed someone younger and/or we got so fast with so much chemistry that we could survive anyway.
I still get totally p....d off with careless stupid plays--the Detroit breakaway at the end of the game that could have been costly if not for a great save by Ullmark. But this team is a LOT better individually and as a team than in previous years and I do see growth in our younger players.
So Sabres fans all just sit back and enjoy the roller coaster and try not to vomit. This too will even out and all will be well. (fingers crossed)

 

[OkimLom]

There are some unrealistic expectations here. It is my opinion and don't get too hot and bothered by that, that Botterrill is looking at a longer range plan which unfortunately for many posters, excludes immediate gratification. This team still has no real identity and has so many new players who are in their first year together. Remember these new guys are from different clubs with different coaches. This is not a situation where they came through the farm system with drills and systems imposed by the NHL team. Not only that Botterrill needs to see what he has. With free agency, cap hits, upcoming expansion, waiver restrictions and players who have been slow to develop or just have not--Guhle, Nylander, Bailey, Baptiste et al-players have necessarily been in and out of the lineup. Our number one goalie this year is turning out to be a guy in his rookie year. Our top defence man is an 18 year old rookie. Many of our more experienced D have had long lasting injuries--maybe not all stars but at least guys who managed to stick it to be nhl vets and might have helped.
Housley has to give everyone a good look so Botterill can assesss and plan going forward. I watch all the games and even tape the ones I attend to see how the eye test survives a second look. I see brain farts and inexperience. I see a left side with skill and heart but little size or physical toughness--think Sheary, Skinner, Pilut, Dahlin. When the puck is in our end those guys have a lot of trouble on the boards.
I do not disagree that we need a someone who can replace ROR. We do not have anything we can afford to give up yet--and maybe Mittelstadt will become that-but not this year or maybe next. True to that we need a D man with size, experience and toughness to help out in our end--most teams do--and JB hoped Hunwick would help there while we developed someone younger and/or we got so fast with so much chemistry that we could survive anyway.
I still get totally p....d off with careless stupid plays--the Detroit breakaway at the end of the game that could have been costly if not for a great save by Ullmark. But this team is a LOT better individually and as a team than in previous years and I do see growth in our younger players.
So Sabres fans all just sit back and enjoy the roller coaster and try not to vomit. This too will even out and all will be well. (fingers crossed)

I get what you’re saying, but all of that reasoning of development purposes and not to “sacrifice” the long term gains for short term gains, is no excuse to not to put together a competitive roster, one that competes every night and is consistent. We are not that, and we continue to not be that.

We should not be expecting to wait for our 2018-2021 prospects to be pieces of our “first wave” of a competitive roster. We should have in place players that would be forced out of spots because of our young and upcoming guys kicking them out. Those guys should not be coming in and learning how to win at the same time as Eichel, Dahlin(I know he was a 2018 pick), Reinhart and Mittelstadt. They should be coming in, with Eichel and the gang showing them how to win and be professionals and hold them to the same standards. 2018 should be our last year to not structure and not fielding a competitive team.

 

[Beerz]

Seriously, if the rest of the NHL only knew.. the 18 minutes are what kill me. Depth player, fine I guess, but the dude has 3 goals, 10 points in infinity opportunities. Has any NHL forward ever produced so little in so much ice time? Legit question.

Ville Leino