Salary Cap: Roster-building thread Part XXXVII : Why can't we always play like that?

[Shwag33]

I am surprised no one is making that big of a deal about this. If that was our team in front of Lundqvist in overtime, Crosby probably would have gotten popped in the head and the play would have been over. And yet, we still don't want to get any tougher.
When will Mario figure it out?

The guys that scored aren't physical in the least.... A couple of good bounces coupled with both defensmen playing terrible is what scored that goal. Had nothing at all to do with physicality.

 

[sexyllama]

I am surprised no one is making that big of a deal about this. If that was our team in front of Lundqvist in overtime, Crosby probably would have gotten popped in the head and the play would have been over. And yet, we still don't want to get any tougher.
When will Mario figure it out?

No one is making a big deal of this because 3/4 of the board think Lovejoy is actually a hockey player...

Without Despres we have no physical hockey players. Martin is soft. Lovejoy is actually made of tissue paper, Scuderi has no idea he was even playing hockey....

Forget physical, look up the analytics of how bad the passing is. Lovejoy and Scuderi can't make one that's a bigger issue

 

[Shady Machine]

Finding UFA wingers:

5v5 data from 2013-14 and 2014-15 regular season for all wingers and looked at players with above average points per 60 min (>1.24) and corsi for (>48%) with greater than 20 games played. (Chris Stewart is the exception that I added due to the number of times his name comes up.) (Source)

Name | Height | Weight | Prev AAV | Age (Oct 2015) | Pos | 5v5 pts/60 | 5v5 goals/60 | 5v5 Corsi For% | 5v5 individ Scoring Chances/60 | Fenwick Against/60 | Scoring Chance Against/60 | Hit/60 | Pen Drawn/60 | Notes
Jay Beagle | 6.03 | 215 | 0.900 | 30 | RC | 1.21 | 0.65 | 47.39 | 7.70 | 38.11 | 24.99 | 7.37 | 0.32 | re-sign WSH
Matt Beleskey | 6.00 | 204 | 1.350 | 27 | L | 2.03 | 1.17 | 51.92 | 9.54 | 39.97 | 24.04 | 11.91 | 0.82 | 5Mx5yrs?
Sean Bergenheim | 5.10 | 201 | 2.750 | 31 | L | 1.59 | 0.84 | 54.39 | 10.31 | 38.14 | 22.18 | 6.45 | 0.84 |
Erik Cole | 6.02 | 205 | 4.500 | 36 | LR | 1.71 | 1.03 | 50.13 | 8.52 | 41.75 | 28.03 | 6.95 | 1.07 | retire?; injuries
Blake Comeau | 6.01 | 202 | 0.700 | 29 | RL | 1.73 | 0.75 | 53.02 | 7.90 | 37.65 | 23.9 | 14.42 | 0.63 |
Erik Condra | 6.00 | 190 | 1.250 | 29 | RL | 1.24 | 0.48 | 52.18 | 6.87 | 41.69 | 23.4 | 2.04 | 1.00 |
Andrew Desjardins | 6.01 | 195 | 0.750 | 29 | LC | 1.13 | 0.33 | 48.09 | 5.01 | 38.63 | 23.43 | 9.56 | 0.50 |
Steve Downie | 5.11 | 191 | 1.000 | 28 | RL | 1.51 | 0.40 | 49.63 | 5.43 | 40.36 | 26.33 | 6.78 | 1.11 |
Patrick Eaves | 6.00 | 200 | 0.650 | 31 | RL | 1.40 | 0.59 | 53.21 | 8.71 | 39.26 | 26.42 | 7.67 | 0.96 |
Martin Erat | 6.00 | 196 | 4.500 | 34 | RL | 1.40 | 0.26 | 51.89 | 4.82 | 38.56 | 26.09 | 5.10 | 0.48 |
Eric Fehr | 6.04 | 212 | 1.500 | 30 | RC | 1.67 | 0.82 | 49.75 | 8.44 | 40.24 | 25.35 | 4.61 | 0.72 | re-sign WSH
Tomas Fleischmann | 6.01 | 192 | 4.500 | 31 | LR | 1.48 | 0.46 | 51.63 | 7.71 | 40.25 | 23.75 | 3.48 | 0.62 |
Michael Frolik | 6.01 | 200 | 3.300 | 27 | R | 1.78 | 0.67 | 54 | 8.39 | 37.81 | 24.87 | 2.56 | 0.56 | re-sign WPG
Cam Janssen | 6.00 | 210 | 0.575 | 31 | R | 1.50 | 1.50 | 51.28 | 5.01 | 31.06 | 17.54 | 16.03 | 0.00 | re-sign NJD
Tyler Kennedy | 5.11 | 185 | 2.350 | 29 | RL | 1.41 | 0.50 | 53 | 8.91 | 39.99 | 26.49 | 5.19 | 1.01 |
Shawn Matthias | 6.04 | 223 | 1.750 | 27 | LC | 1.55 | 0.99 | 47.83 | 8.36 | 40.85 | 27.37 | 5.04 | 0.56 |
Mike Santorelli | 6.00 | 189 | 1.500 | 29 | RC | 1.65 | 0.58 | 48.83 | 8.03 | 42.78 | 28.6 | 2.57 | 0.45 |
James Sheppard | 6.01 | 215 | 1.300 | 27 | LC | 1.24 | 0.40 | 49.8 | 5.90 | 38.96 | 23.32 | 8.06 | 0.66 | injuries
Martin St. Louis | 5.08 | 180 | 5.625 | 40 | R | 2.04 | 0.86 | 49.13 | 7.11 | 42.55 | 28.36 | 0.80 | 0.70 | retire or re-sign NYR
Lee Stempniak | 5.11 | 196 | 0.900 | 32 | R | 1.53 | 0.75 | 48.79 | 7.85 | 40.68 | 26.19 | 5.34 | 0.52 |
Chris Stewart | 6.02 | 231 | 4.150 | 28 | R | 1.45 | 0.66 | 42.59 | 6.67 | 45.71 | 30.75 | 6.01 | 0.36 |
Jiri Tlusty | 6.00 | 209 | 2.950 | 27 | LR | 1.53 | 0.70 | 52.72 | 7.80 | 39.38 | 25.3 | 5.15 | 0.66 |
Scottie Upshall | 6.00 | 200 | 3.500 | 32 | RL | 1.50 | 0.66 | 51.41 | 6.50 | 38.2 | 22.72 | 8.87 | 1.21 |
Joel Ward | 6.01 | 226 | 3.000 | 34 | R | 1.58 | 0.75 | 48.76 | 6.75 | 40.73 | 26.6 | 2.96 | 0.75 |
Justin Williams | 6.01 | 189 | 3.650 | 34 | R | 1.62 | 0.72 | 58.95 | 8.40 | 34.93 | 21.55 | 1.93 | 0.83 | 5Mx5yrs?
Daniel Winnik | 6.02 | 207 | 1.300 | 30 | RL | 1.73 | 0.40 | 49.41 | 5.86 | 40.91 | 26.88 | 5.61 | 0.62 |

Based on a top 6 including Crosby, Malkin, Perron, Hornqvist and with internal options of Kunitz (possible trade), Dupuis (LTIR), and Bennett (possible trade) and Kapanen (future option) in the AHL, the Pens are likely looking to sign at least one UFA winger that can play in the top 6.

Beleskey is arguably the best UFA winger available. Based on his age and production, I would expect him to pull a large contract with term (>$5M per 5 years). However, based on his shooting percentage (2 percentage points above his next best year (lock out year) and almost 6 percentage points above his career average in all situations), I wouldn't expect his production to be sustainable. In addition, Beleskey appears to have had injury problems causing him to miss on average 25% of games over his career (healthy for 60 games out of 82), and he has similar numbers averaged over the past two seasons.

Justin Williams is another top winger that is likely available; however at 34 next October, he's likely not worth the term his next contract should have (~$5M per 5 years). Out of the best of the rest, I would expect several to re-sign including Frolik, MSL (possibly retire), and Fehr where Frolik (point production & shot differential) and Fehr (size & goal scoring) might be of interest if they don't re-sign.

Therefore, I would hope that the Penguins attempt to re-sign Comeau who has high point and goal production, decent defense and physicality, and chemistry with Malkin. I would hope the Pens could sign him for between $2-3M at a shorter term 2-3 years.

Other than Comeau, Bergenheim has intriguing point production and shot differential numbers, and he adds an energy option. However, his size and injury history are deterrents; he might be a good option for a injury depth tweener. Tlusty has good shot differential numbers and decent goal-scoring; however in spite of adding weight he's not very physical making him another potential tweener signing.

TL;DR: Pens should re-sign Comeau to a reasonable contract. Beleskey and Williams are going to get overpaid. Frolik, Tlusty, Bergenheim, and Fehr are other options although I expect Frolik and Fehr to re-sign with their current teams.

Additional stats notes: Players are in alphabetical order by last name. I focused on 5v5 as the powerplay is already overcrowded with forward and defense choices. Individual scoring chances were listed as a measure of offensive talent. Fenwick and scoring chances against were used as a metric for defense. Hits and penalties drawn were used as metrics for physicality and agitating.

So basically, the Pens are going to blow again next year?

 

[Shady Machine]

Two wrongs don't make a right re: Kassian/Beleskey. Kassian, while big, doesn't play big, and is lacking possession-wise. Bennett has played well in the past with Malkin, and I'd rather put him at 2RW than Kassian. Other than that, pretty solid roster (I would also keep Spaling and just play him at 3C)

It doesn't really matter what we think about Bennett. The org has made up their mind. Wilson is playing over him right now. Bennett will be traded in the off season.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

It doesn't really matter what we think about Bennett. The org has made up their mind. Wilson is playing over him right now. Bennett will be traded in the off season.

Wilson isn't "playing over" him. Bennett is hurt.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I am surprised no one is making that big of a deal about this. If that was our team in front of Lundqvist in overtime, Crosby probably would have gotten popped in the head and the play would have been over. And yet, we still don't want to get any tougher.
When will Mario figure it out?

not only aren't we getting tougher, we seemed to be actively removing the toughness from the D this year.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I agree we should re-sign Comeau, but it should be to play in the bottom 6. If he isn't cheap enough to do that, then don't sign him. He is a good bottom 6er, and is a solid guy to have around as a backup top 6er when people get hurt. Basically, use him how I thought we should have been using Dupuis the last few years. Which means they will likely both be pencilled into the top 6 next year.

Dupuis-Crosby-Hornqvist
Perron-Geno-Comeau

boom, top 6 solved. Sign some old overpriced d-men with experience.

PS: I wish this was sarcastic, but I really wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

 

[Shady Machine]

Wilson isn't "playing over" him. Bennett is hurt.

Do you actually believe that?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Dupuis-Crosby-Hornqvist
Perron-Geno-Comeau

boom, top 6 solved. Sign some old overpriced d-men with experience.

PS: I wish this was sarcastic, but I really wouldn't be shocked if it happened.

I'm at the point where I'd be relieved if that happened.

At least I still see the names "Crosby" and "Malkin" there.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Do you actually believe that?

I know I want to believe that

 

[sexyllama]

Do you actually believe that?

Bennett is gone.

 

[drpepper]

So basically, the Pens are going to blow again next year?

Right, because re-signing one of the most cost-effective UFA wingers is going to cause the Pens to blow and like this year's problems weren't mostly injuries particularly on defense and coaching.

Do you see anyone in the list worth signing?

This is the best of the UFA wingers.

Reality is that the UFA market is ******. The Pens have few valuable trade pieces and Rutherford isn't a very good bargain hunter. The Pens also don't have very many draft picks and few forward prospects.

 

[Shady Machine]

I know I want to believe that

I want to as well and I don't doubt he's banged up (he likely has been all year). That said, I doubt Wilson is playing over him primarily because he's hurt.

 

[Shady Machine]

Right, because re-signing one of the most cost-effective UFA wingers is going to cause the Pens to blow and like this year's problems weren't mostly defense and coaching.

Do you see anyone in the list worth signing?

This is the best of the UFA wingers.

Reality is that the UFA market is ******. The Pens have few valuable trade pieces and Rutherford isn't a very good bargain hunter. The Pens also don't have very many draft picks and few forward prospects.

I didn't say re-signing Comeau was a bad idea. I want him re-signed as well, just ideally not in the top 6. Your analysis was pretty solid. It was just a very sobering reality that this team likely isn't getting the solutions up front that most of us want.

I'd hope and pray Frolik is available and that's still just a decent signing. But yeah, the list is pretty bad (as it usually is).

 

[drpepper]

I didn't say re-signing Comeau was a bad idea. I want him re-signed as well, just ideally not in the top 6. Your analysis was pretty solid. It was just a very sobering reality that this team likely isn't getting the solutions up front that most of us want.

I'd hope and pray Frolik is available and that's still just a decent signing. But yeah, the list is pretty bad (as it usually is).

The reality is that over the past three seasons (even if due to a boost with Malkin) Comeau has produced like a second liner. He's one of the best available.

Frolik sounds like he wants to re-sign in WPG.

It's also why signing Ehrhoff may not have been a bad signing, but in context spending 4 million on defense when there was a better crop of UFA (and European and college) forward talent available last season wasn't smart.

This year the Pens might have more open cap space, but there is no one really worthwhile to spend it on.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I'm at the point where I'd be relieved if that happened.

At least I still see the names "Crosby" and "Malkin" there.

There is no way we move Crosby or Malkin. They will be here next year.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

There is no way we move Crosby or Malkin. They will be here next year.

Here's to hoping, man.

Though I don't even know if that's what I want anymore, TBH. My heart does. My head is conflicted. I haven't even watched the team for 10+ games, aside from "highlights" (lol) here and there. I've gathered that I haven't missed anything.

Been a nice Spring so far, though.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The reality is that over the past three seasons (even if due to a boost with Malkin) Comeau has produced like a second liner. He's one of the best available.

Frolik sounds like he wants to re-sign in WPG.

It's also why signing Ehrhoff may not have been a bad signing, but in context spending 4 million on defense when there was a better crop of UFA (and European and college) forward talent available last season wasn't smart.

This year the Pens might have more open cap space, but there is no one really worthwhile to spend it on.

If Comeau is one of the best guys available in free agency, we need to make a trade.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I didn't say re-signing Comeau was a bad idea. I want him re-signed as well, just ideally not in the top 6. Your analysis was pretty solid. It was just a very sobering reality that this team likely isn't getting the solutions up front that most of us want.

I'd hope and pray Frolik is available and that's still just a decent signing. But yeah, the list is pretty bad (as it usually is).

Sutter has to be shopped. Even if they can get back a good third liner for him that is good on the boards and has some offensive abilities, I'd be happy with that. Assuming said player has a good contract and can take over Sutter's PK duties.

As I mentioned yesterday, there is no reason they can't pencil Sundqvist in as their third line pivot. The Rags did that with Hayes, and after a couple of months, he settled in nicely. I see no reason Sundqvist can't do the same.

I think having Sundqvist centering the third line is the first step to having a good puck possession line. Add in a big body with some offensive talent in a trade for Sutter, a guy like Rust, and your bottom six will be much more difficult to handle than the current crop, and cheaper as well.

That's how you start to build a good team from the bottom up.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Here's to hoping, man.

Though I don't even know if that's what I want anymore, TBH. My heart does. My head is conflicted. I haven't even watched the team for 10+ games. I've gathered that I haven't missed anything.

Been a nice Spring so far, though.

I'd say you've missed our best play of the year despite having a completely wrecked defense.

Trading Malkin or Crosby would be stupid. Not just on the ice, but in the owners wallets. They aren't doing it.

Sutter has to be shopped. Even if they can get back a good third liner for him that is good on the boards and has some offensive abilities, I'd be happy with that. Assuming said player has a good contract and can take over Sutter's PK duties.

As I mentioned yesterday, there is no reason they can't pencil Sundqvist in as their third line pivot. The Rags did that with Hayes, and after a couple of months, he settled in nicely. I see no reason Sundqvist can't do the same.

I think having Sundqvist centering the third line is the first step to having a good puck possession line. Add in a big body with some offensive talent in a trade for Sutter, a guy like Rust, and your bottom six will be much more difficult to handle than the current crop, and cheaper as well.

That's how you start to build a good team from the bottom up.

Ya, Sundqvist needs to be on this team next year. I'd be happy to keep Laps for the 4 line center spot too. That's the start of a pretty hard to play against bottom 6.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'd say you've missed our best play of the year despite having a completely wrecked defense.

How extraordinarily sad, considering their position and how they got there.

Trading Malkin or Crosby would be stupid. Not just on the ice, but in the owners wallets. They aren't doing it.

Perhaps they don't have a choice. We shall see.

And Sundqvist starting on the third line next season! You guys are adorable. I'll eat my cursed 93 Patrick Division Champs shirt that smells like decades-old laundry if that happens.

 

[Riptide]

Pens could get 3rd round draft picks for Shero and/or Bylsma if they get jobs this summer

https://twitter.com/Pensburgh/status/591276930512617472

Even after firing them? I have a hard time believing that.

 

[Ogrezilla]

How extraordinarily sad, considering their position and how they got there.

Yeah, with even two of the four injured D, I think this is a very different series. We just can't move the puck right now.

Perhaps they don't have a choice. We shall see.

What makes you think that's even a remote possibility?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

What makes you think that's even a remote possibility?

Because everyone has their limits.

Neither of these guys are stupid. Far from it. They can utter as many brave words as they want to. But there's always the chance that they feel the team's position is untenable and want to actually do something productive with the rest of their careers. I don't think it's especially likely... but this team has consistently found ways to out-do itself when it comes to crushing disappointment. So I'm preparing for it.

 

[Shady Machine]

The reality is that over the past three seasons (even if due to a boost with Malkin) Comeau has produced like a second liner. He's one of the best available.

Frolik sounds like he wants to re-sign in WPG.

It's also why signing Ehrhoff may not have been a bad signing, but in context spending 4 million on defense when there was a better crop of UFA (and European and college) forward talent available last season wasn't smart.

This year the Pens might have more open cap space, but there is no one really worthwhile to spend it on.

Agreed which is why I would make the necessary changes this summer even if it means a full transition year where they don't go all in to try and win.

I truly believe if the organization told fans "we realize we need to take a step back and re-tool to go forward and be a real contender for the next 5-7 years" that fans would embrace it and the business would be more successful in the long run. Enough with the quick fixes and hoping Sid and Geno can mask the team's faults.

Take a shot at Panarin. He's cheap and skilled. Low risk high reward.
Re-sign Comeau if he's cheap.
Give Sundqvist and one of Rust, Wilson a full time spot.
Trade Kunitz, trade or dump Scuds, Trade Sutter and Bennett (Bennett trade is inevitable in my mind).

Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist
Panarin-Malkin-Winger Trade for Sutter, Bennett
Wilson-Sundqvist-Comeau
Spaling-Lapierre-Bernier/Rust/Farnham/whoever

Maatta-Letang
Dumoulin-Cole
Pouliot-Lovejoy
Chorney

That lineup may be better than this year, it may be worse. But it would preserve cap space for the future and fully allow our youth on D to develop. Sign another Chorney type or 2 in the minors that can be called up in the even of injuries. If they lose, they lose but it would be a step in the right direction for this team.