Salary Cap: Roster-building thread Part XXXVII : Why can't we always play like that?

[Crosberry87]

Why do so many rosters continue to have Lovejoy on them? If he's on your roster it automatically sucks.

 

[Waffle Fries]

Why do so many rosters continue to have Lovejoy on them? If he's on your roster it automatically sucks.

Probably because he's (unfortunately) signed for one more season.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

As I posted before, there are a lot of quality coaches on the market who I think would be much more attractive names for the teams who are currently without a coach. I also think what he did in the Olympics scared a lot of hockey people.

Yeah but what some of the other experienced coaches did could scare people too...

McLelland couldn't handle his players with their bitter resentment with the GM.
Carlyle lost his team and couldn't get it back, they tuned him out and everyone knew.
Wilson lost his cool a lot and called out his guys, his team didn't like that.
Whats his face from Edmonton had a bit of the Carlyle and Wilson issue.
Byslma largely kept winning despite key injuries, had a bad Olympics but still got his team to the playoffs regularly with all the injuries.

I think a team will look at that and think, ok well this guy can coach a team, maybe he doesn't get the best results but he has a cup win and wins even when his big stars are out.

Plus, Bylsma has been away from coaching in the NHL for a full season now, I think that could definitely change a guy. I would be surprised if Buffalo doesn't get him.

Buffalo, Philly, and San Jose have coaching vacancies, Detroit maybe too and of course Toronto.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Why do so many rosters continue to have Lovejoy on them? If he's on your roster it automatically sucks.

Because he has no trade value, isn't expensive enough to warrant a buyout, and is still signed through next season.

I'm with you though, anything with Lovejoy in the top 6 is an issue. Bury that guy in the press box as the 7th.

 

[Waffle Fries]

Yeah but what some of the other experienced coaches did could scare people too...

McLelland couldn't handle his players with their bitter resentment with the GM.
Carlyle lost his team and couldn't get it back, they tuned him out and everyone knew.
Wilson lost his cool a lot and called out his guys, his team didn't like that.
Whats his face from Edmonton had a bit of the Carlyle and Wilson issue.
Byslma largely kept winning despite key injuries, had a bad Olympics but still got his team to the playoffs regularly with all the injuries.

I think a team will look at that and think, ok well this guy can coach a team, maybe he doesn't get the best results but he has a cup win and wins even when his big stars are out.

Plus, Bylsma has been away from coaching in the NHL for a full season now, I think that could definitely change a guy. I would be surprised if Buffalo doesn't get him.

Buffalo, Philly, and San Jose have coaching vacancies, Detroit maybe too and of course Toronto.

So there's 5? coaching vacancies with Babcock, McClellan, Julien, Deboer, Boucher, Bylsma, Carlyle, Wilson and a myriad of assistants available to fill them. If St. Louis is eliminated this round, I can see Hitchcock being fired. Same with Boudreau.

 

[Shady Machine]

Why do so many rosters continue to have Lovejoy on them? If he's on your roster it automatically sucks.

He's signed for one more season and he is a good bottom pairing safe and reliable Dman. He's not a number 2 guy or an anchor on a second pairing (depending on your definition of anchor I suppose).

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

Because the following coaches are or may be available:

Tippett
Babcock
Julien
McClellan
DeBoer
Boucher

probably missing a few others. Bylsma may get a job this year, but if he'd prefer to sit on his couch making 2MM for next year over 1.5MM for the Oilers or Coyotes, then he will have to wait another year.

All of those coaches have warts as big as Bylsma's, with the exception of Babcock. He might get a job, he might not. Being subject to compensation penalties might scare teams away more than his actual record.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

So there's 5? coaching vacancies with Babcock, McClellan, Julien, Deboer, Boucher, Bylsma, Carlyle, Wilson and a myriad of assistants available to fill them. If St. Louis is eliminated this round, I can see Hitchcock being fired. Same with Boudreau.

Well Julien hasn't been fired yet, but I think he might be on the chopping block, pulling the whole JR-Bylsma thing.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I was reading the score about how Malkin has an undisclosed injury (duh?) and reading Sid's comments, it seems like he's not going to make excuses for him, be basically says everyone is dealing with something around this time, it's normal.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Why do so many rosters continue to have Lovejoy on them? If he's on your roster it automatically sucks.

Well...he's a what, 1.2m cap hit for 1 more year? He's ok as a 6th/7th guy, basically replacing where we see Scuderi. I'd like him gone too, but then we're looking at some over paid veteran coming.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I am going to bet Bylsma ends up in San Jose....Book it!

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Power forward Milan Lucic, 26, 6-foot, 3-inch, 230-pounds, is on the trading block, according to Bruins insider Joe Haggerty of Comcast. “You continue to hear he’s probably going to be moved,” Haggerty said to his broadcaster partner Mike Giardi this week.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...is-on-the-block-what-should-the-oilers-offer/


I don't even know if this team has anything to offer them at this point. But I would love to have Lucic on Malkin's LW.


Lucic, Malkin, Perron - Let's see someone try something now.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Man, would I LOVE to get Lucic. It would be a hard trade to make with Boston, as neither team would likely want to trade with the other.

Lucic works with either center, but I would first try him with Crosby. Crosby's the one with the head issues in the past. He's the one who needs protection more imo. If Crosby had knee issues and Malkin had a concussion history, I would go with the opposite. And of course, chemistry would settle the issue eventually.


OK can someone fill me in on this rumor of 3rd round pick compensation if someone hires Bylsma or Shero??? Is it a 3rd rounder for each?

I'm getting a ***** here, pardonnez-moi.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

I despise Lucic and I'd be really hesitant to give up a lot for him, especially if the big pieces are futures and the Penguins aren't getting any additional pieces back.

The pick compensation is a second if the hire happens during the season season and a third if it's during the offseason. The hiring team gets to choose within a three year window when the pick will be received.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I despise Lucic and I'd be really hesitant to give up a lot for him, especially if the big pieces are futures and the Penguins aren't getting any additional pieces back.

The pick compensation is a second if the hire happens during the season season and a third if it's during the offseason. The hiring team gets to choose within a three year window when the pick will be received.

And why are we eligible to get compensated? Does every team that fires somebody get compensated as such? Will the Leafs get a pick if somebody hires Dave Nonis? The Flyers for Craig Berube?

Why is this a thing, as beautiful as it is?

 

[billybudd]

Seems improbable that Lucic would be moved to a team in the East. Even if he was, the assets it would make sense to trade for him have all been traded for Winnik, Perron and Lovejoy.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

And why are we eligible to get compensated? Does every team that fires somebody get compensated as such? Will the Leafs get a pick if somebody hires Dave Nonis? The Flyers for Craig Berube?

Why is this a thing, as beautiful as it is?

I believe it's only because they're still under contract?

 

[Crosberry87]

He's signed for one more season and he is a good bottom pairing safe and reliable Dman. He's not a number 2 guy or an anchor on a second pairing (depending on your definition of anchor I suppose).

I literally laughed out loud.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I believe it's only because they're still under contract?

Yeah but virtually all coaches and GM's are under contract when canned.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

Yeah but virtually all coaches and GM's are under contract when canned.

Right. I don't think people would be so interested in the rule if it only applied to currently working guys, so I kind of assumed that if a guy still had a contract he'd be subject to compensation. I might be wrong, though.

Otherwise it's only of interest if someone tries to poach Hynes or some member of the front office.

 

[crawz87]

That's what you call depth. The caps just won the game 5-1 and Ovechkin didn't even get a point. The pens could really use secondary scoring like that. When will I ever see a pens team with strong secondary scoring... probably never.

 

[WayneSid9987]

I don't wanna trade what it would take to get Lucic.
JR and these AGM's need to shed contracts/money and supplement the offense with young guys leaving the KHL (ex. Panarin).

Top priority:

-dump Scuds. at worst, play a youngin'.
-trade Kunitz and Sutter. at worst. play Sundqvist 3C and Kapanen top 6 wing.
-let Martin walk. at worst. play a youngin'.

 

[drpepper]

Finding UFA wingers:

5v5 data from 2013-14 and 2014-15 regular season for all wingers and looked at players with above average points per 60 min (>1.24) and corsi for (>48%) with greater than 20 games played. (Chris Stewart is the exception that I added due to the number of times his name comes up.) (Source)

Name | Height | Weight | Prev AAV | Age (Oct 2015) | Pos | 5v5 pts/60 | 5v5 goals/60 | 5v5 Corsi For% | 5v5 individ Scoring Chances/60 | Fenwick Against/60 | Scoring Chance Against/60 | Hit/60 | Pen Drawn/60 | Notes
Jay Beagle | 6.03 | 215 | 0.900 | 30 | RC | 1.21 | 0.65 | 47.39 | 7.70 | 38.11 | 24.99 | 7.37 | 0.32 | re-sign WSH
Matt Beleskey | 6.00 | 204 | 1.350 | 27 | L | 2.03 | 1.17 | 51.92 | 9.54 | 39.97 | 24.04 | 11.91 | 0.82 | 5Mx5yrs?
Sean Bergenheim | 5.10 | 201 | 2.750 | 31 | L | 1.59 | 0.84 | 54.39 | 10.31 | 38.14 | 22.18 | 6.45 | 0.84 |
Erik Cole | 6.02 | 205 | 4.500 | 36 | LR | 1.71 | 1.03 | 50.13 | 8.52 | 41.75 | 28.03 | 6.95 | 1.07 | retire?; injuries
Blake Comeau | 6.01 | 202 | 0.700 | 29 | RL | 1.73 | 0.75 | 53.02 | 7.90 | 37.65 | 23.9 | 14.42 | 0.63 |
Erik Condra | 6.00 | 190 | 1.250 | 29 | RL | 1.24 | 0.48 | 52.18 | 6.87 | 41.69 | 23.4 | 2.04 | 1.00 |
Andrew Desjardins | 6.01 | 195 | 0.750 | 29 | LC | 1.13 | 0.33 | 48.09 | 5.01 | 38.63 | 23.43 | 9.56 | 0.50 |
Steve Downie | 5.11 | 191 | 1.000 | 28 | RL | 1.51 | 0.40 | 49.63 | 5.43 | 40.36 | 26.33 | 6.78 | 1.11 |
Patrick Eaves | 6.00 | 200 | 0.650 | 31 | RL | 1.40 | 0.59 | 53.21 | 8.71 | 39.26 | 26.42 | 7.67 | 0.96 |
Martin Erat | 6.00 | 196 | 4.500 | 34 | RL | 1.40 | 0.26 | 51.89 | 4.82 | 38.56 | 26.09 | 5.10 | 0.48 |
Eric Fehr | 6.04 | 212 | 1.500 | 30 | RC | 1.67 | 0.82 | 49.75 | 8.44 | 40.24 | 25.35 | 4.61 | 0.72 | re-sign WSH
Tomas Fleischmann | 6.01 | 192 | 4.500 | 31 | LR | 1.48 | 0.46 | 51.63 | 7.71 | 40.25 | 23.75 | 3.48 | 0.62 |
Michael Frolik | 6.01 | 200 | 3.300 | 27 | R | 1.78 | 0.67 | 54 | 8.39 | 37.81 | 24.87 | 2.56 | 0.56 | re-sign WPG
Cam Janssen | 6.00 | 210 | 0.575 | 31 | R | 1.50 | 1.50 | 51.28 | 5.01 | 31.06 | 17.54 | 16.03 | 0.00 | re-sign NJD
Tyler Kennedy | 5.11 | 185 | 2.350 | 29 | RL | 1.41 | 0.50 | 53 | 8.91 | 39.99 | 26.49 | 5.19 | 1.01 |
Shawn Matthias | 6.04 | 223 | 1.750 | 27 | LC | 1.55 | 0.99 | 47.83 | 8.36 | 40.85 | 27.37 | 5.04 | 0.56 |
Mike Santorelli | 6.00 | 189 | 1.500 | 29 | RC | 1.65 | 0.58 | 48.83 | 8.03 | 42.78 | 28.6 | 2.57 | 0.45 |
James Sheppard | 6.01 | 215 | 1.300 | 27 | LC | 1.24 | 0.40 | 49.8 | 5.90 | 38.96 | 23.32 | 8.06 | 0.66 | injuries
Martin St. Louis | 5.08 | 180 | 5.625 | 40 | R | 2.04 | 0.86 | 49.13 | 7.11 | 42.55 | 28.36 | 0.80 | 0.70 | retire or re-sign NYR
Lee Stempniak | 5.11 | 196 | 0.900 | 32 | R | 1.53 | 0.75 | 48.79 | 7.85 | 40.68 | 26.19 | 5.34 | 0.52 |
Chris Stewart | 6.02 | 231 | 4.150 | 28 | R | 1.45 | 0.66 | 42.59 | 6.67 | 45.71 | 30.75 | 6.01 | 0.36 |
Jiri Tlusty | 6.00 | 209 | 2.950 | 27 | LR | 1.53 | 0.70 | 52.72 | 7.80 | 39.38 | 25.3 | 5.15 | 0.66 |
Scottie Upshall | 6.00 | 200 | 3.500 | 32 | RL | 1.50 | 0.66 | 51.41 | 6.50 | 38.2 | 22.72 | 8.87 | 1.21 |
Joel Ward | 6.01 | 226 | 3.000 | 34 | R | 1.58 | 0.75 | 48.76 | 6.75 | 40.73 | 26.6 | 2.96 | 0.75 |
Justin Williams | 6.01 | 189 | 3.650 | 34 | R | 1.62 | 0.72 | 58.95 | 8.40 | 34.93 | 21.55 | 1.93 | 0.83 | 5Mx5yrs?
Daniel Winnik | 6.02 | 207 | 1.300 | 30 | RL | 1.73 | 0.40 | 49.41 | 5.86 | 40.91 | 26.88 | 5.61 | 0.62 |

Based on a top 6 including Crosby, Malkin, Perron, Hornqvist and with internal options of Kunitz (possible trade), Dupuis (LTIR), and Bennett (possible trade) and Kapanen (future option) in the AHL, the Pens are likely looking to sign at least one UFA winger that can play in the top 6.

Beleskey is arguably the best UFA winger available. Based on his age and production, I would expect him to pull a large contract with term (>$5M per 5 years). However, based on his shooting percentage (2 percentage points above his next best year (lock out year) and almost 6 percentage points above his career average in all situations), I wouldn't expect his production to be sustainable. In addition, Beleskey appears to have had injury problems causing him to miss on average 25% of games over his career (healthy for 60 games out of 82), and he has similar numbers averaged over the past two seasons.

Justin Williams is another top winger that is likely available; however at 34 next October, he's likely not worth the term his next contract should have (~$5M per 5 years). Out of the best of the rest, I would expect several to re-sign including Frolik, MSL (possibly retire), and Fehr where Frolik (point production & shot differential) and Fehr (size & goal scoring) might be of interest if they don't re-sign.

Therefore, I would hope that the Penguins attempt to re-sign Comeau who has high point and goal production, decent defense and physicality, and chemistry with Malkin. I would hope the Pens could sign him for between $2-3M at a shorter term 2-3 years.

Other than Comeau, Bergenheim has intriguing point production and shot differential numbers, and he adds an energy option. However, his size and injury history are deterrents; he might be a good option for a injury depth tweener. Tlusty has good shot differential numbers and decent goal-scoring; however in spite of adding weight he's not very physical making him another potential tweener signing.

TL;DR: Pens should re-sign Comeau to a reasonable contract. Beleskey and Williams are going to get overpaid. Frolik, Tlusty, Bergenheim, and Fehr are other options although I expect Frolik and Fehr to re-sign with their current teams.

Additional stats notes: Players are in alphabetical order by last name. I focused on 5v5 as the powerplay is already overcrowded with forward and defense choices. Individual scoring chances were listed as a measure of offensive talent. Fenwick and scoring chances against were used as a metric for defense. Hits and penalties drawn were used as metrics for physicality and agitating.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I don't wanna trade what it would take to get Lucic.
JR and these AGM's need to shed contracts/money and supplement the offense with young guys leaving the KHL (ex. Panarin).

Top priority:

-dump Scuds. at worst, play a youngin'.
-trade Kunitz and Sutter. at worst. play Sundqvist 3C and Kapanen top 6 wing.
-let Martin walk. at worst. play a youngin'.

I don't see the angst others have with Sundqvist being the third pivot going into next season.

He's played against men already for the last few years and he's just as NHL ready as Hayes was last season. The Rags lost their bottom two pivots and went into camp with Hayes penciled in as their third pivot. He started slow and had 15 points or so in his first 40, then as he learned the league, he got better.

Hayes quote is going to blow some minds so I'm posting this quote with a warning to read at your own risk:

"I wouldn't say the beginning of my season was a failure, but it was just kind of learning the ropes," Hayes said. "I wasn't playing scared, but I didn't want to make any mistakes for the coach to lose faith or for the guys to lose faith. Every game, I was trying not to make any mistakes, I wasn't really trying to make plays.

"Once I got over that hump, even though I made a mistake, it will be all right with the coach and with the guys. For my confidence it was big. I was never really too worried about getting points. I've been an offensive guy my whole life, and luckily it started to come."

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I don't wanna trade what it would take to get Lucic.
JR and these AGM's need to shed contracts/money and supplement the offense with young guys leaving the KHL (ex. Panarin).

Top priority:

-dump Scuds. at worst, play a youngin'.
-trade Kunitz and Sutter. at worst. play Sundqvist 3C and Kapanen top 6 wing.
-let Martin walk. at worst. play a youngin'.

Love it.