Salary Cap: Roster-building thread Part XXXVII : Why can't we always play like that?

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm watching a team that is a few adjustments and a healthy D from being back amongst the best teams in the league.

Oh.

Well... I respect your wildly optimistic opinion. But I can't agree.

If they actually do the right thing and scrap the bloat they created last Summer this Summer... then I'll consider a partial-rebuild that can lead to great things within the realm of possibility. Maatta also has to continue working miracles and come back next season as good as ever. Malkin has to get healthy (lol!) and needs help on his line. The depth lines need an almost full rebuild... especially since most are on one year deals. And the cap is likely going to stay about the same or even be reduced. THEN there is Letang and whatever his situation is.

On top of everything else... the team MUST bring the right people in to make these decisions. None are currently employed by the team and to say that the Penguins have been HIGHLY resistant to meaningful change and quick to find excuses would be a bit of an understatement. AND THEN you have to consider that in order to get a lot of this done... they will have to do some trading. But... with what assets, exactly? And have you seen the FA winger crop? **** City.

So you can at least see where I'm coming from, I hope.

 

[IcedCapp]

I'm watching a team that is a trimming of fat and a healthy D from being back amongst the best teams in the league. Even with this group, with a decimated D, we have played four 1-goal games and are losing the series 9 goals to 7 against one of the best teams in the league.

yea, the same team that has been "trimming of fat and health" away from winning for like 3 or 4 years now.

It's easy to say. It's hard to do. Especially when the people in charge have NO INTEREST in trimming the fat.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

I'm not saying he isn't injured at all. I'm saying I don't think that's the main reason he is sitting right now. I'm certainly open to being wrong about it and it's just speculation on my part anyway.

I mean...I don't necessarily disagree. There's a possibility he could play through but they just decided to hold him out instead and give Wilson a chance. (For whatever reason.) That doesn't change the fact that he's likely genuinely injured and that's the main reason he's out.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Hmm really? Good on you for being positive I guess.

if you put Letang and Maatta into this series on this current team, you don't think they could have been the difference in at least one of the three 1 goal losses this series?

 

[Coastal Kev]

I'm watching a team that is a trimming of fat and a healthy D from being back amongst the best teams in the league. Even with this group, with a decimated D, we have played four 1-goal games and are losing the series 9 goals to 7 against one of the best teams in the league.

Wow.... I wish I could visit FANTASYLAND sometime soon. It sounds like a swell place.

 

[IcedCapp]

re: trimming the fat -

Rob Scuderi is averaging 2 minutes-per-game more than Sidney Crosby.

 

[Ogrezilla]

yea, the same team that has been "trimming of fat and health" away from winning for like 3 or 4 years now.

It's easy to say. It's hard to do. Especially when the people in charge have NO INTEREST in trimming the fat.

oh, them actually doing it is a completely different story. But this roster is not far from being really freaking good if handled correctly.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Oh.

Well... I respect your wildly optimistic opinion. But I can't agree.

If they actually do the right thing and scrap the bloat they created last Summer this Summer... then I'll consider a partial-rebuild that can lead to great things within the realm of possibility. Maatta also has to continue working miracles and come back next season as good as ever. Malkin has to get healthy (lol!) and needs help on his line. The depth lines need an almost full rebuild... especially since most are on one-way deals. And the cap is likely going to stay about the same or even be reduced. THEN there is Letang and whatever his situation is.

On top of everything else... the team MUST bring the right people in to make these decisions. None are currently employed by the team and to say that the Penguins have been HIGHLY resistant to meaningful change and quick to find excuses would be a bit of an understatement. AND THEN you have to consider that in order to get a lot of this done... they will have to do some trading. But... with what assets, exactly? And have you seen the FA winger crop? **** City.

So you can at least see where I'm coming from, I hope.

trust me, I see it. I half expect Scuds and Lovejoy to start next season on our 2nd D pairing. I expect Dupuis and Kunitz to be firmly entrenched on the top lines. Management sucks at identifying the problems. Or they don't care. I don't know.

My point is that the actual roster is really not far from being great. I think a few healthy D-men could have been the difference in this current series. That's how good our good players are imo.

 

[MtlPenFan]

re: trimming the fat -

Rob Scuderi is averaging 2 minutes-per-game more than Sidney Crosby.

During this series???

 

[Ogrezilla]

re: trimming the fat -

Rob Scuderi is averaging 2 minutes-per-game more than Sidney Crosby.

Ya, Scuds and Kunitz situations are just strange. I really think the organization sees them as strengths. I don't get it.

 

[IcedCapp]

During this series???

yes


Paul Martin, D 4 0 2 2 -2 2 23:43 0 0 0 0 4 0.0
Ian Cole, D 4 0 2 2 -1 8 22:29 0 0 0 0 6 0.0
Ben Lovejoy, D 4 0 2 2 -2 0 22:18 0 0 0 0 9 0.0
Rob Scuderi, D 4 0 0 0 -1 0 21:10 0 0 0 0 2 0.0
Sidney Crosby, C 4 2 1 3 1 0 19:11 0 0 0 0 8 25.0

 

[Ogrezilla]

Wow.... I wish I could visit FANTASYLAND sometime soon. It sounds like a swell place.

would you say we are completely outclassed by the Rangers right now? I don't know how you can watch these games and not think that simply adding Letang and Maatta could at least have made this a 2-2 series up to this point. I mean, we've lost three 1-goal games and we are missing our top pairing, another top 4 puck moving D and our best puck moving 3rd pairing guy.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

My point is that the actual roster is really not far from being great. I think a few healthy D-men could have been the difference in this current series. That's how good our good players are imo.

Of course I can see HOW this team could be good again without completely blowing it up and waiting another ten years or more. But it's a matter of making that a reality. And I have no hope for that.

Why would I? Seriously. What has this team done to make me EVER believe that?

I'm not bitter, at all. I've just been watching them do business for six years+ of this "new era" and know what to expect. If I make it sound like a constant, depressing ****-show... well... that isn't on ME.

 

[Shady Machine]

if you put Letang and Maatta into this series on this current team, you don't think they could have been the difference in at least one of the three 1 goal losses this series?

I guess that's a different question but sure I do. The problem is that they made this lineup knowing Maatta was out for the season. They weren't a contender when they traded 2 picks for Winnik and Despres for Lovejoy. So now all those role players will be more expensive to re-sign and they are without the picks.

I look at the re-tool (and I don't have all the specific moves figured out yet) as a 2 year plan. Cut the fat this summer, trade for 1 young top NHL ready top 6 winger, try to sign Panarin for a low risk high reward move and let the youth play. Maybe they are successful, maybe they aren't. Then you have learned a lot about your youth and can make decisions the following summer to solidify your roster.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Of course I can see HOW this team could be good again without completely blowing it up and waiting another ten years or more. But it's a matter of making that a reality. And I have no hope for that.

Why would I? Seriously. What has this team done to make me EVER believe that?

I'm not bitter, at all. I've just been watching them do business for six years+ of this "new era" and know what to expect. If I make it sound like a constant, depressing ****-show... well... that isn't on ME.

fair enough. Can't really argue with what to expect. Just holding out hope I guess. I still think JR moved in the right direction over the last year, aside from the Despres trade being awful. But the Scuds and Kunitz' situations really don't leave much room for positive expectations.

 

[drpepper]

It's better than not having a solution.

I told you my solution but you automatically point out all negatives without recognizing the positives.

My point was you have to cut the fat and be willing to let players to develop. You know, it's possible to make the playoffs with youth in prime roles on your team. You are assuming the D will suck. Why is negativity the default option?

Your proposal seems incomplete. To borrow an internet meme:

1. Cut the fat
2. Play youth
3. ????
3. Profit

What is step 3? What are the Pens saving cap space for? If a "re-tool" is what you are doing, then how are the Pens "retooling"?

EDIT: You elaborated that Year 1 would be play the youth and see. I think it would be more productive to put the youth into the best position to succeed and see (which I don't think your lineup does). Year 2 would be fix whatever the youth doesn't do well? I think it would be more realistic to expect the young and inexperienced players to make mistakes and to have nonlinear, doesn't-stick-to-a-year-schedule development


I disagree that blindly "cutting the fat" and playing young or inexperienced players is an intrinsically positive thing.

I don't see throwing young or inexperienced players into major roles without support as development. I don't think sink or swim development of young players is a positive.

I don't think "cut the fat" without a plan for replacing them particularly in terms of the forwards where the Pens don't have a Kunitz or Dupuis developing is a positive.


It's possible to have a team succeed with youth and inexperience, but how many teams do it with potentially four or five forwards (Panarin - has he played on NA ice?, Wilson, Sundqvist - also hasn't really played on NA ice, Malkin's unknown winger, and potentially Rust, Farnham, whoever) and four or five d-men (Dumoulin, Cole, Pouliot, Chorney who while not young doesn't have NHL experience, and Maatta who only has one full season in the NHL)?

On a roster of 23 that is anywhere from 35-43% of the players who have either have limited experience, are playing brand new roles, and/or aren't proven.

What reason do you have to believe that the D will be successful?

I can look at the performance and stats of the defense at the NHL level and see that none of them were particularly successful with high minutes.

But I agree that the Pens have defensive depth to develop.

On the forward side, what makes you think that bottom 6 will be successful?

 

[Ogrezilla]

I guess that's a different question but sure I do. The problem is that they made this lineup knowing Maatta was out for the season. They weren't a contender when they traded 2 picks for Winnik and Despres for Lovejoy. So now all those role players will be more expensive to re-sign and they are without the picks.

I look at the re-tool (and I don't have all the specific moves figured out yet) as a 2 year plan. Cut the fat this summer, trade for 1 young top NHL ready top 6 winger, try to sign Panarin for a low risk high reward move and let the youth play. Maybe they are successful, maybe they aren't. Then you have learned a lot about your youth and can make decisions the following summer to solidify your roster.

I mostly agree, though I think even with that plan we could be as good next year as we are this year. Better if the right players are healthy.

As for this year, replace Maatta with Ehrhoff and I still think this series is tied. Hell, likely even just Letang.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

And, no offense Ogre... but that's exactly the same thing management will say this Summer when it comes time to look inward. "Well... if we just had Letang, things would have been completely different! All those injuries. Better to just get healthy and try again next year. We believe in this group!"

 

[Coastal Kev]

would you say we are completely outclassed by the Rangers right now? I don't know how you can watch these games and not think that simply adding Letang and Maatta could at least have made this a 2-2 series up to this point. I mean, we've lost three 1-goal games and we are missing our top pairing, another top 4 puck moving D and our best puck moving 3rd pairing guy.

Yes, that's exactly what I am saying. I have seen enough terrible teams in my day to know not to be fooled by close results.


The Rangers know that scoring 2 goals against the Pens will most likely end in a win. If they needed to score more, they would.

Could the Pens make some moves to make a quick turnaround next season, Yes.

But how do I trust this team to make those right decisions? I lost all hope of things getting better with this current Front Office when they made the Despres trade for Lovejoy. It only gets worse next year if the Pens keep the band of 9 together.

 

[SEALBound]

We absolutely have to get more physical.
So anyways, my final roster is:
Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist: With more experience together, hopefully improvement comes.
Belesky-Malkin-Frolik: Finally get Malkin two wingers again, total cost: 9 mil but should be a huge improvement.
Bergenheim-Sutter-Etem: Replacing Winnik and Bennett with Bergenheim and Etem. May be rotating similar chairs, but the previous two haven't been working out so a mix up is in order.
Sundqvist/Rust/Farnham-Spaling-Downie: Give the young guys a chance, hopefully they play with an edge. Spaling, while mediocre, can tie it all together.

Letang-Maata: Need to stay healthy, could be best pairing in the league.
Petry-Pouliot/Lovejoy: Lovejoy may be trusted more earlier on, but Pouliot should really grow into the number four role this year. His offense needs to take over some games.
McQuaid-Cole: There are plenty of young guys waiting to fill in too, but this is what I start the year with. I've liked Cole as a bottom pairing guy so far, and McQuaid adds the toughness we need and can play a PK role as well.

No we don't. The team we are icing is matching the physicality of the Rangers right now and it's not making a difference. Clearing the front of the net =/= "physical play". Not to mention that line up is only as physical as the one we have.

That isn't going to magically win us games. Montreal and Chicago are not physical teams by any stretch and they are killing it right now.

The physicality thing...is fine. Now would it be nice to add a Lucic, yes. But not because we are soft. Do it because that fits the mold of what you want on a line.

 

[MtlPenFan]

I don't want to see Kapanen with the big club next year or frankly, the year after. He's our one prospect at forward, I don't want them destroying his development because they were too stupid to find a single winger in 8 years.

 

[Ogrezilla]

And, no offense Ogre... but that's exactly the same thing management will say this Summer when it comes time to look inward. "Well... if we just had Letang, things would have been completely different! All those injuries. Better to just get healthy and try again next year. We believe in this group!"

That's definitely what worries me. This team when healthy and playing like they are right now is good enough to beat most anybody, but not good enough that they should be favored against the best teams in the league. Going that route and getting lucky with health puts us in the middle of the pack of playoff teams imo. Extra retooling with guys like Scuds, Sutter and Kunitz could take us from good to great in a year or two.

 

[Shady Machine]

Your proposal seems incomplete. To borrow an internet meme:

1. Cut the fat
2. Play youth
3. ????
3. Profit

What is step 3? What are the Pens saving cap space for? If a "re-tool" is what you are doing, then how are the Pens "retooling"?

I disagree that blindly "cutting the fat" and playing young or inexperienced players is an intrinsically positive thing.

I don't see throwing young or inexperienced players into major roles without support as development. I don't think sink or swim development of young players is a positive.

I don't think "cut the fat" without a plan for replacing them particularly in terms of the forwards where the Pens don't have a Kunitz or Dupuis developing is a positive.


It's possible to have a team succeed with youth and inexperience, but how many teams do it with potentially four or five forwards (Panarin - has he played on NA ice?, Wilson, Sundqvist - also hasn't really played on NA ice, Malkin's unknown winger, and potentially Rust, Farnham, whoever) and four or five d-men (Dumoulin, Cole, Pouliot, Chorney who while not young doesn't have NHL experience, and Maatta who only has one full season in the NHL)?

On a roster of 23 that is anywhere from 35-43% of the players who have either have limited experience, are playing brand new roles, and/or aren't proven.

What reason do you have to believe that the D will be successful?

I can look at the performance and stats of the defense at the NHL level and see that none of them were particularly successful with high minutes.

But I agree that the Pens have defensive depth to develop.

On the forward side, what makes you think that bottom 6 will be successful?

These are all good questions and some of them I can't answer. I can spend a lot of time defending my solutions but even if I do: 1.) you won't be satisfied and will have further critiques many of which may be valid, 2.) you still won't propose an alternative.

Let's face reality here. It's very difficult to understand how this team goes from where they are now to a successful lineup that can compete next year and into the future. I have proposed a plan that sets them up well from a cap perspective and gives ample opportunities for the young players with talent to prove themselves. I didn't build this terrible forward prospect pool. I didn't trade Despres for Lovejoy. As you pointed out the UFA forward market is terrible. So I will ask you again. What is your alternative roster?

 

[Ogrezilla]

Yes, that's exactly what I am saying. I have seen enough terrible teams in my day to know not to be fooled by close results.


The Rangers know that scoring 2 goals against the Pens will most likely end in a win. If they needed to score more, they would.

Could the Pens make some moves to make a quick turnaround next season, Yes.

But how do I trust this team to make those right decisions? I lost all hope of things getting better with this current Front Office when they made the Despres trade for Lovejoy. It only gets worse next year if the Pens keep the band of 9 together.

If you think the team has been terrible in this series, then we don't even have a starting point for a conversation. I just don't know how you could have watched these 4 games and come to that conclusion.

 

[rightwinglock]

I mostly agree, though I think even with that plan we could be as good next year as we are this year. Better if the right players are healthy.

As for this year, replace Maatta with Ehrhoff and I still think this series is tied. Hell, likely even just Letang.

Without Lovejoy and Scuderi in the lineup, while missing all 3 of them, we are ahead in this series. Dumo and Chorney are holding their own playing their first minutes in the playoffs and yet we have these two lugs to kill every offensive momentum (Scuderi) we gain and make amateur mistakes on the defense (Lovejoy) at just the wrong time. God forbid we played Pouliot and Harrington, guess they couldn't do better than that. This infatuation Pens have with their soldiers of time past is really mind numbing.