Rielly vs. Hyman

[MMMOOOWWW]

I am praying we trade Rielly after this season. He is not worth the money he makes now and we are supposed to give him a raise. He's lost on the defensive side of the game. Can't run a power play , has a muffin of a shot that almost always gets blocked. I would get as many second assists on the power play as he does. There are better options out there to spend that money on. We need a D-man that can shoot and run the power play.

 

[cgc83]

rielly shoudnt get a dime over 6m on his next contract with the leafs .
what has happened to this guys offense in the last couple of years ?!?
A big contributing factor to their pp being so bad a lot of this season .

 

[Mess]

Is keeping both and letting the current GM walk and then having the new guy re-sign both?

 

[francis246]

rielly shoudnt get a dime over 6m on his next contract with the leafs .
what has happened to this guys offense in the last couple of years ?!?
A big contributing factor to their pp being so bad a lot of this season .

shitty PP, uhm Matthews and Marner just too dominant LOL, we don’t use the stretch pass anymore as well.

 

[Twine Tickler]

this may be a hot take, but f*** it. Zach Hyman is the next Brad Marchand. Brad took his game to the next level in his 28 year old year (circled below), and really cemented himself as more than just a pest. He added a layer of skill and started putting up serious points. He became a legit NHL superstar

But prior to that 2016-17 season, he was very much in the same boat as Zach. Highly skilled grinder. As we have seen this year, Zach has way more skill than we ever gave him credit for when he broke into the league. Not only is he a pain in the ass for opponents, he can finish, and he can make plays 1 on 1. Their career trajectories are not all that dissimilar.

last year Zach was producing at a 59pt pace over an 82 game season, and this year he is on pace for a 62 pt pace over an 82 game season. Very similar paces, however Zach has spent about half of his ice time this year outside of the top 2 lines whereas last year he spent the majority if not all of his time in the top 6. So the progression may appear minimal, but its not at all. Zach got his start in the NHL later in life in comparison to Brad, but if we compare the 2 careers they are not all that far off. If we neglect Zach's 1st "season" (16 game, 2015-16) and Marchand's 1st "season" (20 game, 2009-10) and then look at the years that follow, they are relatively close. In fact, Brad actually only produced at a 45pt pace in his 5th full season, which is Hymans current season. It's a super hot take, but I really think Zach has a similar skillset. Obviously Brad has a better shot, and better hands for sure. But those things were not always present in his game. It took him years to develop that ability and confidence. I can easily see Zach add another dimension to his game and become the next Brad Marchand. Especially if we cement him on the top line with Mitch and Auston where he belongs. And even if Zach doesn't take that next step and become the next Brad Marchand, He is our version of Brad Marchand. Invaluable

Sign the kid to 8 year x 4.25mill deal, and make him a career Leaf. Deal will be worth every penny

 

[keonsbitterness]

Is keeping both and letting the current GM walk and then having the new guy resign both?

re-sign

 

[tmlms13]

Middle 6 wingers are easier to find than #2 defenseman.

But it does ultimately depend on cap hit and length of deal as everything in the NHL depends more on a player's cap hit than it does on if he is actually a good player or not. It's why I am really starting to hate the NHL the cap has ruined the game. You get punished for being too good at your job.

 

[zeke]

Both will be signed longterm.

 

[frizzer1]

They can’t replace a d man who gets close to 25 minutes a night.
No one else can move the puck uo the ice like him.
Love hyman but at his age and injuries he is a risky long term bet.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I'm not one to nitpick Rielly's defensive game because he's excellent and what he does well, and that's move the puck out of the zone, but I do wish he had a clapper a la Jeff Petry. It would really complete his offensive arsenal and add another dimension to the Leafs PP.

I want to say Hyman is easier to replace but I'm not sure that's necessarily true either. Hyman is a quite literally a poor man's Crosby and he adds a dimension that's often lacking in the top-6--a willingness to go to the dirty areas to go along with a great motor.

I refuse to pick one or the other. I'd try to re-sign both if Hyman accepts 5.5m or less and Rielly 7.5m or less.

 

[horner]

Rielly gets points playing with our top two lines and pp time.
He's not great in his own end,
His point shot doesn't hit the net but opposition players.
He will never have a slap shot from the point.
2 yrs ago was his top game since then he doesn't even carry the puck with his speed.
If anything his game has regressed alot since that season.

 

[Menzinger]

I won't blink if both are resigned. I don't think it will take as much manouvering as folks think - Rielly won't be getting near what people think he will (ie he will be earning less than Pietro).

I'd give Hyman to have the higher probability of being resigned if forced to choose one

 

[Clark4Ever]

Hyman.

Sandin can fill the void left by Rielly if necessary at a fraction of the cost.

 

[hamzarocks]

We will keep them both

Rielly will get 7 years 6.5M (1.5M increase which he is easily worth),

Hyman 6 years 3.5M (he's going to be worth 1.5M more than that, but will give us a true steal).

Getting our 1D (15th-25th best d-man in the league) along with our 1 LW( a top 15 LW) for 10M is very fair.

Rielly gets 1.2M from Kessel retention coming off +300k

Hyman gets 1.3M from Andersen savings, with 3.7M going to 1A guy in either Raanta, Andersen(if he is willing to take a two year 3.7ish deal), Ulmark,

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Rielly has defensive issues but he's still priority #1.

Replacing a top 2 D is difficult and even harder with the Leafs' lack of cap space.

I have a feeling they will try to sign both depending on the cap hit and go from there. If it becomes one or the other then it will likely come down to their performances in the playoff.

 

[Budz]

If we choose Rielly over Hyman I would question my fandom.

 

[Gallagbi]

Rielly has defensive issues but he's still priority #1.

Replacing a top 2 D is difficult and even harder with the Leafs' lack of cap space.

I have a feeling they will try to sign both depending on the cap hit and go from there. If it becomes one or the other then it will likely come down to their performances in the playoff.

I expect we'll find a way to keep both, but I do wonder if Mo is easier to cover with Sandin and Lilj around when both can run a PP. Add in the fact we have Holl, Muzzin and Brodie around, possibly Dermott as well and we may not be looking for a top 2 D.

 

[cupcrazyman]

No way Dubas let’s Hyman walk but I bet he tries his best to resign both

Dubas has drafted so many Reilly clones that it makes even more sense to sign Hyman if push come to shove.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Hyman then find a solid all-around partner for Brodie. Hyman's ability to play up and down the lineup is too valuable, and he'll come cheaper.

Rielly's offense isn't replaceable at our budget but his defence is, and Brodie is capable of playing more of an offensive role than he has with Rielly as his partner.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

You could make the poll cap space vs. Rielly and I’d vote cap space.

 

[Havoc]

Hyman. I see him aging like Bergeron. As in, he will be a core piece until about 36

 

[seanlinden]

this may be a hot take, but f*** it. Zach Hyman is the next Brad Marchand.

No, Zach Hyman is not the next Brad Marchand. There are 2 MASSIVE differences.

1. Brad Marchand is one of the league's biggest pests/agitators, he's a little dirty, and always engaging in physicality and confrontation. Zach Hyman is not that kind of player. He hits simply as a means to try and obtain puck possession. He's a clean player who doesn't really impose fear or concern on the defencemen who line up against him. Zach Hyman works hard, Brad Marchand plays hard.

2. Brad Marchand is a substantially more skilled offensive player than Zach Hyman is. In his mid through late 20s, Marchand led the B's in goalscoring over numerous years.
2014-15, Age 26: 24 Goals (1st), 42 Points (5th to Bergy with 55)
2015-16, Age 27: 37 Goals (1st), 61 Points (4th to Bergy with 68)
2016-17:, Age 28: 39 Goals (1st), 85 Points (1st, with Pastrnak at 75 then Krejci & Bergeron in the 50s)
2017-18, Age 29: 34 Goals (2nd to Pastrnak who had 35 in 14 more games), 85 Points (1st, with Pastrnak at 80 and Bergeron at 64)

In his 3rd year at age 25, Zach Hyman established himself as a 40 point player with 15 goals and 25 assists in 17-18. It's important to remember though, that the 17-18 team was REALLY good offensively. Hyman's 40 points made him the 8th highest scoring forward on the team.

Come 18-19, hockeydb will tell you that he surpassed the 20 goal mark in an impressive 71 games while pacing at 48 points -- what's missing in that info though, is that 6 of those were into empty nets. Hyman didn't really become a "20 goal guy" in the traditional sense of somebody who's goalscoring becomes an integral part of you team's offence. He racked up a chunk of goals solely as a result of his defensive ability. It's also important to consider that he spent a good chunk of that season riding shotgun with John Tavares (47 Goals) & Mitch Marner (94 points). Was he an important part of that group? absolutely, but it wasn't for his offensive skills -- and it shows when you had roughly half the number of points as your 2 linemates.

Has he taken steps forward in the last 2 years? absolutely.... but those steps forward have to be considered in relation to who he's playing with; which are typically Mitch Marner & Auston Matthews. These are two of the best offensive players in the league. Yeah, he's making space for them to create chances, and racking up production by being with him, but he's not the one creating chances.

Don't get me wrong, I love Hyman's game and recognize that he's an extremely important cog of this team.... players like Iafallo, Toffoli, and Laughton are very important to their teams as well.... but he's not on the same level as a Brendan Gallagher or Brad Marchand.

As other posters have mentioned, guys who's game relies on hard work tend to not age as well, especially after they get long term security. I'm less concerned with Hyman because he's always had long term security, and still works like he does. He comes from a wealthy family, has other business interests, and his father owned every team he played on until he went to Michigan.

The negotiation over AAV really shouldn't be that difficult... somewhere between $4 and $4.5m; as anything really beyond that, and the Leafs really should be looking elsewhere. The question / challenge is, does he demand a 5+ year deal to keep the AAV in that range? and if signing a 5 or 6 year deal, what kind of trade protection are the Leafs willing to give him?

 

[weeweeballs]

can't wait til we're free of Rielly's contract

 

[Swervin81]

Hyman, but be careful with him. He takes a lot of abuse and that game he plays will not age well at all, especially since he's turning 29. If some other GM wants to give him something like $5.5M+ with term, you let them make that mistake.

His contract may very well end up being yet another in a long line of Okposo, Ladd, Clarkson, Horton, Lucic, Clowe, Backes type of "physical guy takes long term deal and his body falls apart". Hell, the only long term contract on a physical 2 way type I can think of that has aged even remotely decently lately is Dustin Brown. And that comes with the huge caveat of him having several awful seasons in between those renaissance years, to the point where he got stripped of the C.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Much more likely to boil down to a choice of Hyman vs. Nylander.