Oilhawks
Oden's Ride Over Nordland
- Nov 24, 2011
- 27,029
- 47,148
I see a lot of similarities to the 2017 team. A largely mediocre side being propped up by elite goaltending and the best player to enter the league in 30 years. This years squad has better special teams but somehow even worse depth players.
That team made the playoffs comfortably but then it fell apart pretty quickly after that.
They didn't just make the playoffs, they won a round and should have won two really.
They fell apart quickly after that because Chia kept making poor trades, the guys who had career years regressed (predictably) and probably the biggest factor, Klefbom played injured the year after and the team fell apart the moment he was injured the year after that.
The difference with this team is that I don't see anybody playing at an unsustainably high level outside of Koskinen perhaps and Neal to an extent and I see players who are relatively underachieving like Nuge, Larsson and some of the bottom 6 guys so I don't see this team falling off a cliff necessarily as long as the top guys and Klefbom remain healthy. The one big X factor as is the case with most teams is goaltending. If Koskinen regresses so will the team.
With that said, I doubt they keep up this 17-9 pace the rest of the season. The games will get harder in the second half and that's where they'll need others outside of the top guys to step up, namely Nuge who needs to push the play more at even strength.
I don't think their record is a reflection of their true ability, but I'm enjoying the wins while they come. Whatever will be, will be.
Even fighting for a wildcard spot is more than most people expected out of this group. Most had or have them pegged to miss again. This team was never going to go from last year to instant playoff contender in one season. The process was always going to take a few years regardless of whether or not they overachieved.I'm scared.
In most areas of my life, certainly, but for these purposes I'm specifically referring to the Oilers.
Every person that roots for the team must be thrilled with the Oilers current position in the standings, blown away by the production of McDrai, more than satisfied with goaltending, happy with the new coach and GM, and still shocked (like really, really... really shocked) that our new GM traded a very expensive boat anchor to our division rival for a player that is currently tied for 10th in the league in goals.
The powerplay is currently first in the league at 32.5%, and the penalty kill is second in the league at 87.1%. I've heard coaches say the goal is to have the sum of those percentages be greater than 100%. The Oilers are currently at 119.6%
The team is 17-9-3, good enough for first place in the Pacific Division, which looks to be quite easily the worst division in the league. We've also just passed US Thanksgiving, which historically is somewhat of a significant predictor of playoff teams for the season.
But.....
For some reason, maybe it's just Oilers hockey PTSD... I can't help but also be waiting for the other skate to drop, and can't help be concerned that at some point, we'll be fighting for a wild card spot.
Surely things can't go this smoothly, can they?
This is what I'm trying to caution against. Management putting their feet up and spending the summer on the Yacht because of one unsustainably good season.
As for regression, both McDavid and Draisaitl(by extension also Kassian) are rocking a 105 PDO and shooting percentages multiple points above their averages. They are gonna slow down some and I'm not sure the rest of the group can pick up the slack long term. That's not even mentioning Koskinen who is easily the third most important piece on the team so far and has never in his career demonstrated an ability to play at this level for an entire season.
Look, maybe I'm just coming across as a debbie downer even though that's not what I'm trying to do. I'm enjoying the wins as much as the next guy and I definitely think we're playoff bound at this point, but this roster needs more help. Good news is some of the cavalry is coming internally, especially on defense.
If previous management simply put their feet up and spent summers on The Yacht, they'd be in much better shape today. I'm not saying that Holland should do nothing but he needs to be careful to not do too much for the sake of making a one season run.
This is what I'm trying to caution against. Management putting their feet up and spending the summer on the Yacht because of one unsustainably good season.
As for regression, both McDavid and Draisaitl(by extension also Kassian) are rocking a 105 PDO and shooting percentages multiple points above their averages. They are gonna slow down some and I'm not sure the rest of the group can pick up the slack long term. That's not even mentioning Koskinen who is easily the third most important piece on the team so far and has never in his career demonstrated an ability to play at this level for an entire season.
Look, maybe I'm just coming across as a debbie downer even though that's not what I'm trying to do. I'm enjoying the wins as much as the next guy and I definitely think we're playoff bound at this point, but this roster needs more help. Good news is some of the cavalry is coming internally, especially on defense.
EDIT:
Basically this is my position in fewer words than I'm vomiting onto the screen.
They didn't just make the playoffs, they won a round and should have won two really. It just illustrates how mediocre the Pacific was and still is.
They fell apart quickly after that because Chia kept making poor trades, the guys who had career years regressed (predictably) and probably the biggest factor, Klefbom played injured the year after and the team fell apart the moment he was injured the year after that.
The difference with this team is that I don't see anybody playing at an unsustainably high level outside of Koskinen perhaps and Neal to an extent and I see players who are relatively underachieving like Nuge, Larsson and some of the bottom 6 guys so I don't see this team falling off a cliff necessarily as long as the top guys and Klefbom remain healthy. The one big X factor as is the case with most teams is goaltending. If Koskinen regresses so will the team.
With that said, I doubt they keep up this 17-9 pace the rest of the season. The games will get harder in the second half and that's where they'll need others outside of the top guys to step up when they inevitably have a rough stretch, namely Nuge who needs to push the play more at even strength. Interestingly enough, the 2nd line which seemingly was a lot better in '16-'17 really wasn't contrary to what some think. RNH and Eberle were thoroughly underwhelming most of that season at even strength.
can't wait till we get in the late season and get that "magic number" neededThe team still loses to bottom 5 teams.
If they were actually good, they wouldn't have so many losses against them. Very inconsistent effort.
I'll be scared the whole season until the playoffs are clinched.
Out of the 12 losses we have and only 4 are against non playoff teams. Any team on any givin night can lose a game to a bottom team but this year there not going on long losing streaksThe team still loses to bottom 5 teams.
If they were actually good, they wouldn't have so many losses against them. Very inconsistent effort.
I'll be scared the whole season until the playoffs are clinched.
You are right to be afraid. This team is not as good as their record suggests. Schedule, luck, and just finding ways to win has been the story as much as all the good things you mention.
No things can't go this smoothly and I will be shocked if they do.
Oilers need to capitalize on a very weak schedule in 2019 and be prepared for bumpy roads in 2020.
Just look at similiar teams in Vancouver, Montreal, and Buffalo. We are one extended losing streak away from being in the same boat.
That's actually been a very bright point this season.Out of the 12 losses we have and only 4 are against non playoff teams. Any team on any givin night can lose a game to a bottom team but this year there not going on long losing streaks