Real Talk. I'm scared. Are you?

[Oilhawks]

Who woulda thought Lucic wouldn’t have five goals by now?

 

[fancy dan]

the edmonton oilers from 1991-2019 are who hurt me.

 

[tellermine]

I am scared.
Edmonton is the only NHL team I have real family connection and so it has place in my hearth. I do like many NHL teams but Oilers are special.

I am scared. Every year.

 

[replacement]

Ya man... We are truly damaged.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

It's only fair to be pessimistic or at the very least doubtful of our success due to the last 15 or so years. We've learned to come in with low expectations because anytime we came in with high expectations, we were burned very badly. And outside of our last playoff run, the only other time we were led to believe that we could make it "mid-season" was the lockout year with Wreck it Ralph, and we all saw what happened there.

It's natural at this point to be paranoid of an 'eventual crash,' and right now every game to me until we reach the 30 win mark is a must win.

 

[RipsADrive]

I'm always trying to keep my preseason expectations in mind while watching this year and it has helped a lot.

Such a nice change for a roster to be playing above the sum of its parts for once and I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts instead of waiting for it to end.

 

[CupofOil]

I see a lot of similarities to the 2017 team. A largely mediocre side being propped up by elite goaltending and the best player to enter the league in 30 years. This years squad has better special teams but somehow even worse depth players.

That team made the playoffs comfortably but then it fell apart pretty quickly after that.

They didn't just make the playoffs, they won a round and should have won two really. It just illustrates how mediocre the Pacific was and still is.

They fell apart quickly after that because Chia kept making poor trades, the guys who had career years regressed (predictably) and probably the biggest factor, Klefbom played injured the year after and the team fell apart the moment he was injured the year after that.

The difference with this team is that I don't see anybody playing at an unsustainably high level outside of Koskinen perhaps and Neal to an extent and I see players who are relatively underachieving like Nuge, Larsson and some of the bottom 6 guys so I don't see this team falling off a cliff necessarily as long as the top guys and Klefbom remain healthy. The one big X factor as is the case with most teams is goaltending. If Koskinen regresses so will the team.

With that said, I doubt they keep up this 17-9 pace the rest of the season. The games will get harder in the second half and that's where they'll need others outside of the top guys to step up when they inevitably have a rough stretch, namely Nuge who needs to push the play more at even strength. Interestingly enough, the 2nd line which seemingly was a lot better in '16-'17 really wasn't contrary to what some think. RNH and Eberle were thoroughly underwhelming most of that season at even strength.

 

[Little Fury]

I don't think their record is a reflection of their true ability, but I'm enjoying the wins while they come. Whatever will be, will be.

 

[oXo Cube]

They didn't just make the playoffs, they won a round and should have won two really.

They fell apart quickly after that because Chia kept making poor trades, the guys who had career years regressed (predictably) and probably the biggest factor, Klefbom played injured the year after and the team fell apart the moment he was injured the year after that.

The difference with this team is that I don't see anybody playing at an unsustainably high level outside of Koskinen perhaps and Neal to an extent and I see players who are relatively underachieving like Nuge, Larsson and some of the bottom 6 guys so I don't see this team falling off a cliff necessarily as long as the top guys and Klefbom remain healthy. The one big X factor as is the case with most teams is goaltending. If Koskinen regresses so will the team.

With that said, I doubt they keep up this 17-9 pace the rest of the season. The games will get harder in the second half and that's where they'll need others outside of the top guys to step up, namely Nuge who needs to push the play more at even strength.

This is what I'm trying to caution against. Management putting their feet up and spending the summer on the Yacht because of one unsustainably good season.

As for regression, both McDavid and Draisaitl(by extension also Kassian) are rocking a 105 PDO and shooting percentages multiple points above their averages. They are gonna slow down some and I'm not sure the rest of the group can pick up the slack long term. That's not even mentioning Koskinen who is easily the third most important piece on the team so far and has never in his career demonstrated an ability to play at this level for an entire season.

Look, maybe I'm just coming across as a debbie downer even though that's not what I'm trying to do. I'm enjoying the wins as much as the next guy and I definitely think we're playoff bound at this point, but this roster needs more help. Good news is some of the cavalry is coming internally, especially on defense.

EDIT:

I don't think their record is a reflection of their true ability, but I'm enjoying the wins while they come. Whatever will be, will be.

Basically this is my position in fewer words than I'm vomiting onto the screen.

 

[GOilers88]

I'm scared.

In most areas of my life, certainly, but for these purposes I'm specifically referring to the Oilers.

Every person that roots for the team must be thrilled with the Oilers current position in the standings, blown away by the production of McDrai, more than satisfied with goaltending, happy with the new coach and GM, and still shocked (like really, really... really shocked) that our new GM traded a very expensive boat anchor to our division rival for a player that is currently tied for 10th in the league in goals.

The powerplay is currently first in the league at 32.5%, and the penalty kill is second in the league at 87.1%. I've heard coaches say the goal is to have the sum of those percentages be greater than 100%. The Oilers are currently at 119.6%

The team is 17-9-3, good enough for first place in the Pacific Division, which looks to be quite easily the worst division in the league. We've also just passed US Thanksgiving, which historically is somewhat of a significant predictor of playoff teams for the season.

But.....

For some reason, maybe it's just Oilers hockey PTSD... I can't help but also be waiting for the other skate to drop, and can't help be concerned that at some point, we'll be fighting for a wild card spot.

Surely things can't go this smoothly, can they?

Even fighting for a wildcard spot is more than most people expected out of this group. Most had or have them pegged to miss again. This team was never going to go from last year to instant playoff contender in one season. The process was always going to take a few years regardless of whether or not they overachieved.

If they are wild card bound, or fall out, nothing really happened that wasn't expected anyways so what does it matter?
As it stands they're doing really well thus far and exceeding expectations, but that doesn't mean the expectations for the process should change.

 

[Wretched Oil]

What an awesome 1/3 but my brain is prepared for them to lose every game and miss the playoffs

 

[oobga]

12/13 years of suck. We even had a great year in there and then totally crapped the bed immediately after. I can't blame anyone for not believing.

Approach I would take though is to enjoy the good times while they last, and try to find the humour in the suck In the end, it's a hockey team we all have zero control over.

 

[CupofOil]

This is what I'm trying to caution against. Management putting their feet up and spending the summer on the Yacht because of one unsustainably good season.

As for regression, both McDavid and Draisaitl(by extension also Kassian) are rocking a 105 PDO and shooting percentages multiple points above their averages. They are gonna slow down some and I'm not sure the rest of the group can pick up the slack long term. That's not even mentioning Koskinen who is easily the third most important piece on the team so far and has never in his career demonstrated an ability to play at this level for an entire season.

Look, maybe I'm just coming across as a debbie downer even though that's not what I'm trying to do. I'm enjoying the wins as much as the next guy and I definitely think we're playoff bound at this point, but this roster needs more help. Good news is some of the cavalry is coming internally, especially on defense.

If previous management simply put their feet up and spent summers on The Yacht, they'd be in much better shape today. I'm not saying that Holland should do nothing but he needs to be careful to not do too much for the sake of making a one season run.

As far as sustainability is concerned, there's pretty much no chance that the Oilers keep up this pace which is something like a 51-52 win pace but I don't see a drastic drop off although this team tests my patience at times with this tendency to no show against "lesser" opponents.
There will be a rough stretch at some point beyond just a 2 game losing streak and the key will be how they respond to that. They didn't respond last year when they were 16-12 or something like that and hit a rough patch (although the Klefbom injury played a big factor).

 

[Soundwave]

There are plenty of teams that aren't "sexy" on paper that do well, this team is not far removed at all from the 16-17 Oilers that had 103 points.

McDavid > 16-17 McDavid
Draisaital >> 16-17 Draisaitl
Nurse >> 16-17 Nurse
Bear = Sekera
Kassian = Maroon
Neal > 16-17 Lucic
Koskinen = Talbot
RNH > 16-17 RNH
Khaira < Letestu (but really only because Letestu got PP time)
Klefbom = Klefbom
Larsson < Larsson
Benning > 16-17 Benning
Persson > Gryba
Granlund = Caggiula (Granlund is a better PK player)
Chiasson < Eberle

The main difference is the last one, and Holland can fix that by adding a winger at the trade deadline. Even there Eberle really only scored 16 goals during the season, he stat padded up to 20 goals in two meaningless games at the end of the regular season against Vancouver that wasn't even dressing their full roster.

The Oilers were also a very young team then, McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse were all going to get better and they have on top of that we've finally see some long overdue progress on some of our 2nd/3rd/4th/5th round picks with Ethan Bear breaking out at a valuable position at that. Leon Draisaitl alone has gone from a 27 goal/77 point guy to 50+ goal/120+ point pace player now, it's a huge increase.

 

[ElysiumAB]

If previous management simply put their feet up and spent summers on The Yacht, they'd be in much better shape today. I'm not saying that Holland should do nothing but he needs to be careful to not do too much for the sake of making a one season run.

KEN HOLLAND LIKES TO GOLF!

 

[ElysiumAB]

Wow.... pretty even.

 

[FlameChampion]

This is what I'm trying to caution against. Management putting their feet up and spending the summer on the Yacht because of one unsustainably good season.

As for regression, both McDavid and Draisaitl(by extension also Kassian) are rocking a 105 PDO and shooting percentages multiple points above their averages. They are gonna slow down some and I'm not sure the rest of the group can pick up the slack long term. That's not even mentioning Koskinen who is easily the third most important piece on the team so far and has never in his career demonstrated an ability to play at this level for an entire season.

Look, maybe I'm just coming across as a debbie downer even though that's not what I'm trying to do. I'm enjoying the wins as much as the next guy and I definitely think we're playoff bound at this point, but this roster needs more help. Good news is some of the cavalry is coming internally, especially on defense.

EDIT:



Basically this is my position in fewer words than I'm vomiting onto the screen.

Well to be fair, McDavid and Draisaitl are likely going to have a high PDO because they dont shoot the puck unless they think there is a good chance they are going to score for better or worse. But I agree with pretty much everything you said.

 

[FlameChampion]

They didn't just make the playoffs, they won a round and should have won two really. It just illustrates how mediocre the Pacific was and still is.

They fell apart quickly after that because Chia kept making poor trades, the guys who had career years regressed (predictably) and probably the biggest factor, Klefbom played injured the year after and the team fell apart the moment he was injured the year after that.

The difference with this team is that I don't see anybody playing at an unsustainably high level outside of Koskinen perhaps and Neal to an extent and I see players who are relatively underachieving like Nuge, Larsson and some of the bottom 6 guys so I don't see this team falling off a cliff necessarily as long as the top guys and Klefbom remain healthy. The one big X factor as is the case with most teams is goaltending. If Koskinen regresses so will the team.

With that said, I doubt they keep up this 17-9 pace the rest of the season. The games will get harder in the second half and that's where they'll need others outside of the top guys to step up when they inevitably have a rough stretch, namely Nuge who needs to push the play more at even strength. Interestingly enough, the 2nd line which seemingly was a lot better in '16-'17 really wasn't contrary to what some think. RNH and Eberle were thoroughly underwhelming most of that season at even strength.

Pretty much agree with all of this. They were very close to going to round 3 that year, and likely would of without help from the refs. But you're right the pacific is pretty weak. Chiarelli failed to build on this, (I think he thought the team was better than it was) and Talbot crashed hard. Its hard to win without competent goaltending.

I know we all think that things are going perfect at the moment and the only way is down but as you mention, everyones pretty much on a sustainable level other than perhaps Koskinen. Even Neal whos putting up goals isnt a world beater 5 on 5. I still dont really feel like Neals been lucky or anything. Theres still a lot of players who can improve and we have seen gradual levels of improvement from the bottom 6 over the last bit.

As others have said, I think for myself, I am partially on edge because the team is so inconsistent with their effort and start of the games. The team plays too much to its level of competition. I think they actually play better against stronger teams. This week for example, Ottawa, Kings and Buffalo should be an expected 2-3 wins (especially the first two). The Oilers might end up winning 2 games but I doubt its going to be a relaxing watch.

 

[KlefDown]

The team still loses to bottom 5 teams.
If they were actually good, they wouldn't have so many losses against them. Very inconsistent effort.

I'll be scared the whole season until the playoffs are clinched.

can't wait till we get in the late season and get that "magic number" needed
always loved that countdown in 16/17

 

[Da McBomb]

I had pretty low expectations coming into this season... so this is all gravy baby. No need to be scared... just enjoy it.

 

[Faelko]

One game at a time....

And yes, I’m worried, they’ve curb stomped my heart more than once in the last decade...

 

[Ck1]

The team still loses to bottom 5 teams.
If they were actually good, they wouldn't have so many losses against them. Very inconsistent effort.

I'll be scared the whole season until the playoffs are clinched.

Out of the 12 losses we have and only 4 are against non playoff teams. Any team on any givin night can lose a game to a bottom team but this year there not going on long losing streaks

 

[MaxR11]

You are right to be afraid. This team is not as good as their record suggests. Schedule, luck, and just finding ways to win has been the story as much as all the good things you mention.

No things can't go this smoothly and I will be shocked if they do.

Oilers need to capitalize on a very weak schedule in 2019 and be prepared for bumpy roads in 2020.

Just look at similiar teams in Vancouver, Montreal, and Buffalo. We are one extended losing streak away from being in the same boat.

Ya the team better not get complacent. There's a hard road ahead in 2020. They need to continue to improve and not rest on their laurels. it bit them in the butt at the start of the 2017-18 season.... they better learn from it.
I didn't think the team looked like a 103 pt team in 2016-17 either and it came around to bite them the following season.

 

[Coffey]

Out of the 12 losses we have and only 4 are against non playoff teams. Any team on any givin night can lose a game to a bottom team but this year there not going on long losing streaks

That's actually been a very bright point this season.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

I'm in the scared column, mostly because of past trauma. Doesn't take much to throw us off.
We are only 3 points ahead of where we were last year at this point. Yes I'm worried because nothing can be taken for granted.
Several things are going our way better (goaltending, special teams).
Our GA is still concerning, our 5-on-5 play is yet to be overly threatening, our shot production is low. Reliance on McDrai is still heavy.
We've struggled to get on a roll here, which yes will take time, but the last dozen or so games have been very back and forth in the W-L column.
It feels different, but I'll be more assured when the math says we make it for sure.
30 out of 82 games is not even half the battle.
I have both apprehension and faith in a bit of a swirl.
The team has done well, keep it up, more importantly keep improving.