Player Discussion Rasmus Dahlin Part 3- D (1st Overall, 2018, Frölunda HC, SHL)
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tsujimoto74
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- May 28, 2012
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BuffaloGooner
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Just watched that pre-draft video posted on the last page. We get a lot of that in Dahlins game right now, as a 19 year old in the best league in the world. The deft movement on the power play, the tape to tape passes through the neutral zone on a near 100% consistent basis. Once this kid grows into his 6’3 frame I don’t see how anyone will be able to stop him.
Eichel was saying this on Chiclets last week. With his size and skill he's gonna be pretty difficult to handle when it all comes together. He's already very good now, and he's not even really close to his potential.
La Cosa Nostra
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- Jun 25, 2009
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This summer I hope whoever is at the helm has an 8 year deal ready for Dahlin. What scares me is a lot of these young stars demandin 5 year deals to hit ufa earlier and maximize $$$....so I have no problem paying Rasmus 8 x 10 like Jack got. We need 11 years minimum of Dahlin here. And honestly, 20 mil combined for a superstar 100 point 1C and a budding future superstar franchise dman is worth it.
Bendium
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I like Dahlin, but he has not yet shown me he will reach the 10 Million AAV value mark. Not really even close yet.
Dubi Doo
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It's like the Eichel contract. You're banking on him becoming elite. You may overpay for the first year or so,but then it turns into a sweetheart deal for the remainder of the term.
Bendium
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With Eichel you could see he was getting there and progressing well. Defenseman take longer, but so far the year over year progress is a bit tepid, and for 10 mil a dman should be good in both zones and a clear playoff caliber top pair dman. Dahlin has a lot of PP points helping his cause, but his game otherwise has been protected lower pairing minutes. I haven't seen the generational out of him yet. He and Joker were in the same draft, and so far there are days I think Joker might be the better of the two in the long run, so slow down with this one and unveil more of the puzzle before trying to solve it.
Dubi Doo
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Eichel's defensive game was ass and he wasn't even a PPG player when he signed his deal. He was sheltered as well. RoR took the blunt of the heavy lifting in the d zone. 10 mill/year took an even bigger chunk of the cap in 2017 as well.
Jack was a lot like Dahlin when he signed his deal. You could see he was special. Same with Dahlin. He has his warts, but he makes plays that are just absurd. Offensively, Dahlin's point totals are unheard of for his age. He's a special breed. If he doesnt become an elite top-pairing defenseman then I'll eat my shorts.
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OkimLom
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- May 3, 2010
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Joker was in the draft before Dahlin. Joker has come down to earth and has turned into a stable player but he has not shown that offensive flair for the transition game we saw earlier.
Both guys play similar amount of even strength minutes with (Joker at 15:55 and Dahlin 15:26), Dahlin earns his minutes on the PP where Joker plays on the PK. It's where each's strength is best at.
BananaSquad
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GOALOFSSON
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As soon as he shows he’s worth 10million a year, he will be worth the far more than that on a long term deal
OkimLom
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Dahlin is going to get paid A LOT more than Provorov. Dahlin has already outdone Provorov at a younger age. Dahlin would be on pace for 58 points THIS year if he played the full season. This after scoring 44 points at 18. Without seeing where he will be next year, you're looking at a contract that is probably in the $8.5-$9 million aav range if you want to factor in inflation. Depending on a comparable, you could be looking at a Karlsson type of improvement or a Doughty improvement.
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Not on a first contract post ELC. Nobody does that for defensemen. It simply doesn’t happen. Not Seth Jones not Werenski, Not McAvoy or Sergachev nor Provorov. He isn’t better than Makar, Hughes or Heiskanen at this point. Will he get there? Likely, but that is why they don’t get the big money post First ELC. He will get paid, but a lot less than people think. Doughty and Karlson didn’t get paid until their 3rd deal. I think that pattern doesn’t change.
dahlin is not even close to a 10 mil per year player yet. Jack was just outside is the top 10 in points per game when he got his deal.
OkimLom
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Dahlin: 2 years so far at a .61 ppg pace (18-19 years old so far).
Doughty 2nd Contract: 8 years @ 7 million aav in 2011 after scoring 126 points in 239 games (a .53 ppg pace) (18 - 21 years old)
Karlsson 2nd Contract: 7 years @ 6.5 million aav 2012 after scoring 154 points in 216 games (a .72 ppg pace) (19 - 22 years old)
Jones 2nd Contract: 6 years @ 5.4 million aav in 2016 after scoring 63 points in 199 games (a .32 ppg pace) (18 - 21 years old)
Sergachev still on ELC (he's at a .47 ppg pace for the moment 102 points in 220 games) (18 - 21 years old)
Provorov 2nd Contract: 6 years @ 6.75 million aav in 2019 after scoring 97 points in 246 games (a .40 ppg pace) (19 - 22 years old)
McAvoy 2nd Contract: 3 years @ 4.9 million aav in 2019 after scoring 60 points in 117 games (a .52 ppg pace (18-21 years old)
The one thing that Dahlin has going for him and hurts him, is that Buffalo is a considerably WORSE team than Colorado, Vancouver, and Dallas is. Which, if statistics are important is hurting Dahlin's chances of getting more points, but on the other hand, one could say Buffalo will NEED Dahlin a lot more than Colorado, Vancouver, and Dallas will need theirs.
It will depend on what the agent feels he should do. We could be looking at a similar contract with large cap hit for a shorter term (ala Matthews).
PatrikBerglund
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- May 29, 2017
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Second most amount of points for a teenager in the history of the NHL isn't "even close"?
Many complained about Jack's contract, which appears at this point to have been a bargain. I expect Dahlin will be similarly "overpaid", and then he'll quickly prove otherwise.
Bendium
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That's more of a stat novelty than a true estimate of his skill. As the top draft pick on a bad team he has been given prime opportunities most don't get. He has been on PP1 which often stays out for 1.5 minutes. He is favored Ozone starts with sheltered minutes and often plays behind the Eichel line 5v5. I am not saying he sucks, not even close, I am just saying that I haven't seen enough to be convinced he will be an elite top pairing two way d-man yet to commit that long right now. I would rather see a 2 year deal now and then a long term deal once we have seen little more evidence he will become what they said he would be.
not playing the system. He still tries rushing the puck himself, which is not part of Krueger's system.
Likely same reason Skinner does not get ice time. Not playing the system
In no way does this mean Dahlin is a bust. Just not able to thrive in this system, much like Michael Jordan could not thrive under Dean Smith's system
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