Ranking NHL Teams By Forwards

[Larry Fisher]

If that's all it would cost they would already be signed. Last I heard is Connor wants around $9 million per and there is no way Laine is settling for $6 or $7 million when he is asking for atleast $10 million.

Well, all the RFAs have been holding out in hopes of cashing in. As camps get going, they will want to get back on the ice. I’d be surprised if there were more than a couple of them still unsigned come October. Those dominoes will start falling soon.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Respect for all the hard work, seriously, but as is said time and time again in sports the game is not played on paper.

If the Flyers offense finishes higher than the Capitals offense this season I will be beyond shocked. I will also come back to this thread and apologize.

That’s true, rankings and predictions are played on paper. Sometimes they prove to be factual on the ice, other times they turn out to be fiction. We shall see how it plays out. Stay tuned for the Power Rankings in the morning!

 

[tiburon12]

I don't fully understand the logic of the Sharks elite offensive-defense taking away from their forward's offense. The Sharks D had a combined 28 goals last year. They are playmakers, not goal scorers. To a degree, yes i can understand, but it doesnt fully explain why you think their forward group is worse than the Coyotes or the Wild or the Sabres.

I also think you are overvaluing the loss of Donskoi w/r/t offense. He was very much nonexistent offensively in terms of output for the majority of the season, and only played 60% of the playoff games last year. Using him and Thornton as losses to the top 9 is not a strong argument with close evaluation of the players (obviously for different reasons).

The pushback you're getting from sharks fan is not about the ranking, but rather the clear disconnect with the reality of the Sharks current roster. It reeks of the tired old misconceptions about the team and furthers the idea that people don't watch them play and cast judgements about them from a position of authority.

 

[thadd]

With Edmonton probably want to switch Chaison for Gagner and there's a respectable demographic out there thinking/hoping Benson pushes Grandlund down to the 4th line LW spot.

Other than that, they did a pretty good job. Everyone else is hard to peg because we don't really know what we've got.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Topic = best forwards
Your post = most goals

Can you comprehend the difference between forward and offense? Do you not think that guys like Karlsson and Burns had anything to do with those numbers?

Can you comprehend the fact the Sharks forwards had a lot to do with those goals, as well? Me pointing out the goal total from last year was done to highlight the fact that losing Pavelski doesn't drop the team that far in forward rankings.

5 forwards from last year with at least 50 points are currently signed, and 6 as soon as they re-sign Thornton. Help me comprehend why they should be ranked 25th here.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

I don't fully understand the logic of the Sharks elite offensive-defense taking away from their forward's offense. The Sharks D had a combined 28 goals last year. They are playmakers, not goal scorers. To a degree, yes i can understand, but it doesnt fully explain why you think their forward group is worse than the Coyotes or the Wild or the Sabres.

I also think you are overvaluing the loss of Donskoi w/r/t offense. He was very much nonexistent offensively in terms of output for the majority of the season, and only played 60% of the playoff games last year. Using him and Thornton as losses to the top 9 is not a strong argument with close evaluation of the players (obviously for different reasons).

The pushback you're getting from sharks fan is not about the ranking, but rather the clear disconnect with the reality of the Sharks current roster. It reeks of the tired old misconceptions about the team and furthers the idea that people don't watch them play and cast judgements about them from a position of authority.

Sabres have some serious firepower on the top line, added Olofsson + Johansson and will have a new Mittelstadt.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Yes, you would’ve gotten slightly different lineups. However, every lineup would’ve had some pairings of Meier/Kane and Couture/Hertl on lines 1 and 2, and every lineup would’ve had Joe Thornton at 3rd line center. Not a single one of them would’ve had Tomas Hertl on the right wing of the 2nd line, being centered by Dylan Gambrell.

After much debate here and further discussion with my editors, we have decided to update San Jose's top six to better reflect this consensus and tweaked the analysis accordingly. We do value and appreciate your feedback.

We decided to leave the bottom six alone for now since my analysis already made it clear that San Jose would rank higher once Thornton signs and if Marleau ends up returning too.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I don't fully understand the logic of the Sharks elite offensive-defense taking away from their forward's offense. The Sharks D had a combined 28 goals last year. They are playmakers, not goal scorers. To a degree, yes i can understand, but it doesnt fully explain why you think their forward group is worse than the Coyotes or the Wild or the Sabres.

I also think you are overvaluing the loss of Donskoi w/r/t offense. He was very much nonexistent offensively in terms of output for the majority of the season, and only played 60% of the playoff games last year. Using him and Thornton as losses to the top 9 is not a strong argument with close evaluation of the players (obviously for different reasons).

The pushback you're getting from sharks fan is not about the ranking, but rather the clear disconnect with the reality of the Sharks current roster. It reeks of the tired old misconceptions about the team and furthers the idea that people don't watch them play and cast judgements about them from a position of authority.

I think you kind of answered your own question by calling the Sharks' defencemen playmakers. They drive a lot of offence from the back end. If this was a ranking of team offence as a whole, obviously San Jose would be top 10. But I ranked the defence separately from the forwards and the defence ranking (No. 1) accounted for all that offence driven from the back end. As a result, the forwards ranking suffered — perhaps more than it should have. I also potentially overvalued the losses of Pavelski, Nyquist and Donskoi from the top nine, though I feel the San Jose fan base is undervaluing those losses here. The reality probably lies somewhere in between.

I think there is a shock factor to seeing San Jose at No. 25 because the Sharks have had a top-10 overall team offence for much of the past decade. But my rankings make it clear that I feel the defence is largely responsible for that team offence and also that San Jose's forward group has been depleted by those aforementioned losses.

 

[Larry Fisher]

With Edmonton probably want to switch Chaison for Gagner and there's a respectable demographic out there thinking/hoping Benson pushes Grandlund down to the 4th line LW spot.

Other than that, they did a pretty good job. Everyone else is hard to peg because we don't really know what we've got.

Yeah, Edmonton's depth chart is very hard to predict with a new coach and several new players. Tippett is going to find a spot for Gagner. He liked him in Arizona and got offensive results from him, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Tippett try Gagner higher in the lineup, at least to start.

Like you said, I don't think there is a real consensus for the Oilers' lines heading into camp. Everybody has their own ideas, including Tippett I'm sure. I do think he'll start with three pairings: Draisaitl-McDavid, Neal-Nugent-Hopkins and Granlund-Archibald. The latter aren't together in my lineup because Chiasson is bumped down to the third line and Benson isn't pencilled into a roster spot due to Holland's overripening approach. Again, everyone has their own ideas until we see what Tippett rolls out in camp, in the preseason and for opening night. Even then, things are likely going to change quite a bit over the course of the season.

 

[JeremyTB]

I think you kind of answered your own question by calling the Sharks' defencemen playmakers. They drive a lot of offence from the back end. If this was a ranking of team offence as a whole, obviously San Jose would be top 10. But I ranked the defence separately from the forwards and the defence ranking (No. 1) accounted for all that offence driven from the back end. As a result, the forwards ranking suffered — perhaps more than it should have. I also potentially overvalued the losses of Pavelski, Nyquist and Donskoi from the top nine, though I feel the San Jose fan base is undervaluing those losses here. The reality probably lies somewhere in between.

I think there is a shock factor to seeing San Jose at No. 25 because the Sharks have had a top-10 overall team offence for much of the past decade. But my rankings make it clear that I feel the defence is largely responsible for that team offence and also that San Jose's forward group has been depleted by those aforementioned losses.

Nyquist only showed up in San Jose late in the season and didn't do much, Donskoi struggled for most of the season and only scored 14 goals and 37 points. Donskoi only had 2 goals more than Melker Karlsson who plays on the 4th line. Only Pavs is a big loss. Also I think Meier and Hertl and to a lesser extent kane and Labanc getting even better will make up for that loss. Meier scored 30 last season despite going in a 6 week stretch where he couldn't buy a goal. Sharks will probally have 4 30+ goal scorers in the upcoming season and atleast 6 forwards reaching 50+ points. How could a team with those stats be 25th among forwards? I don't think Sharks fans are saying they are top 5 but atleast somewhere between 10-15. It baffles me the Oilers are 5 spots ahead of them when they have Kassian a 4th line player on their top line and Neal and Granlund on their 2nd line. They might only have 3 forwards crack 40 points. They only had 3 that did it last season and didn't really add anybody that can change that.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm confused? I'm pretty sure McDavid is the best forward in the league and he carried his team into the top 20. My bad, I thought you said "almost in the bottom three" but it says "almost in the bottom third". Correct, that speaks to how bad Edmonton's supporting cast is. If Edmonton didn't have McDavid, the Oilers would be 31st without any debate.

Yep. I left the original post somewhat ambiguous for that reason. It “says a lot” about the Oilers, and McDavid, and maybe the ranking itself. There’s a lot to be read into it.

 

[emptyNedder]

Larry. I admire that you 1) spend this much time on every team when you are also obviously spending tons of time on prospects; 2) realize that numerous posters will say unkind things about any analysis you offer.

Keep up the good work—it makes the offseason much more enjoyable for most of us.

 

[drktmplr12]

disagree, my team should be higher

 

[hockeeyyy]

ITT: Tears from fans who don't like having their opinion disagreed with.

 

[The Macho King]

disagree, my team should be higher

Mine too.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Nyquist only showed up in San Jose late in the season and didn't do much, Donskoi struggled for most of the season and only scored 14 goals and 37 points. Donskoi only had 2 goals more than Melker Karlsson who plays on the 4th line. Only Pavs is a big loss. Also I think Meier and Hertl and to a lesser extent kane and Labanc getting even better will make up for that loss. Meier scored 30 last season despite going in a 6 week stretch where he couldn't buy a goal. Sharks will probally have 4 30+ goal scorers in the upcoming season and atleast 6 forwards reaching 50+ points. How could a team with those stats be 25th among forwards? I don't think Sharks fans are saying they are top 5 but atleast somewhere between 10-15. It baffles me the Oilers are 5 spots ahead of them when they have Kassian a 4th line player on their top line and Neal and Granlund on their 2nd line. They might only have 3 forwards crack 40 points. They only had 3 that did it last season and didn't really add anybody that can change that.

Donskoi had 1 goal after January 10th, and that was the gwg in game 7 against Colorado. He was a black hole offensively for the last 3-4 months. Nyquist was a complimentary player who didn't have a huge impact and won't be sorely missed.

Pavelski is the huge one, but most of us have said he was going to regress before they re-signed Karlsson and let him walk. As you said. His goals will be made up between Kane, Labanc, Hertl, Meier etc.

 

[txpd]

Do the math my friend ... the power rankings are math based.

Well, hell. Smarter than all of us eh? Actually its all in the equation. I am not going to back and look again but you had the Flyers well ahead of the Caps on defense. You had the Flyers nearly elite at forward. Well better than the Caps combined. If you think think there is an equation that adds a high middle of the pack goalie to a low middle pack goalie and changes the weight of all the skaters, I don't get it. Enjoy

 

[Filthy Dangles]

This is pretty bad honestly, from top to bottom.

Outside of the top-3, which I think you got right, it's a pretty big mess.

Washington is way too low at 9. I probably put them 4. Would not take any of VGK/PHI/DAL/NSH forwards over Washingtons.

Sharks at 25 is pretty incomprehensible.

Panthers, Bruins and Blackhawks all way too low.

Plus I'm dumbfounded at some of the projections and slottings of players. Like Dylan Gambrell at 2C? (which many people have mentioned already). Ilya Mikheyev projected to be a top-6 in Toronto?

Respect the effort, but I found it pretty bad analysis.

 

[weinsink]

Laughs at no#2,must be toronto writers!

 

[Volica]

Jersey, Dallas, Nashville and Philly a bit high.
Sharks, Yotes and Kitties a bit low.

Arizona getting no love. They added a PPG winger over the summer, that game breaker is something a number of teams in front of them don't have.

I know defence isn't included in scoring, but 3/5 of the top 5 scoring teams from last year are outside of the top 5, two of them are out of the top 10. I understand having a great offensive D kind of skews one way (in the case of San Jose and Calgary); but I would expect both teams to be within the top 4 if there's a defence ranking. Especially San Jose. If you're saying their offensive group is 25th in the league, they should have the #1D in the league by a mile.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Nyquist only showed up in San Jose late in the season and didn't do much, Donskoi struggled for most of the season and only scored 14 goals and 37 points. Donskoi only had 2 goals more than Melker Karlsson who plays on the 4th line. Only Pavs is a big loss. Also I think Meier and Hertl and to a lesser extent kane and Labanc getting even better will make up for that loss. Meier scored 30 last season despite going in a 6 week stretch where he couldn't buy a goal. Sharks will probally have 4 30+ goal scorers in the upcoming season and atleast 6 forwards reaching 50+ points. How could a team with those stats be 25th among forwards? I don't think Sharks fans are saying they are top 5 but atleast somewhere between 10-15. It baffles me the Oilers are 5 spots ahead of them when they have Kassian a 4th line player on their top line and Neal and Granlund on their 2nd line. They might only have 3 forwards crack 40 points. They only had 3 that did it last season and didn't really add anybody that can change that.

Again, I’m ranking each position more so on pure talent. A big reason for San Jose having four 30-plus goal scorers and six 50-plus point producers is the defencemen feeding them the puck, generating rebounds for them, maintaining possession and tilting the ice towards the offensive zone.

Put the Sharks forwards in front of Edmonton’s defence, do they still produce to those levels? I separated the positions and judged the forwards as if they were dropped onto any team, which groups would perform the best based on their talent? That is where the Sharks landed for me. They don’t have elite top-end talent, they don’t have great depth right now (that improves if/when Thornton and Marleau sign), they lost three of their top nine from the playoff roster without replacing them, and they benefit with inflated totals thanks to the defence.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Well, hell. Smarter than all of us eh? Actually its all in the equation. I am not going to back and look again but you had the Flyers well ahead of the Caps on defense. You had the Flyers nearly elite at forward. Well better than the Caps combined. If you think think there is an equation that adds a high middle of the pack goalie to a low middle pack goalie and changes the weight of all the skaters, I don't get it. Enjoy

The power rankings are now published and posted here. I think you’ll see that you were mistaken. The only position where one of those two teams was “well ahead” in my rankings was the goaltenders and that favoured Washington.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Wayyyy too many question marks to have NJ that high.

You do also realize that Benn only had 53pts last season and has been trending down, and that’s Perry hasn’t scored 20 goals in 3 seasons now, with a whopping 10pts last season? Pavelski is what, 38?

Those two are WAY too high.

Meanwhile Florida has two 90+ pt players, as 35G player, a 70pt player, a 25G player, another 20G player, and another 75pt C and they’re not even top 10?

Looks like a quickly put together list

 

[Larry Fisher]

Jersey, Dallas, Nashville and Philly a bit high.
Sharks, Yotes and Kitties a bit low.

Arizona getting no love. They added a PPG winger over the summer, that game breaker is something a number of teams in front of them don't have.

I know defence isn't included in scoring, but 3/5 of the top 5 scoring teams from last year are outside of the top 5, two of them are out of the top 10. I understand having a great offensive D kind of skews one way (in the case of San Jose and Calgary); but I would expect both teams to be within the top 4 if there's a defence ranking. Especially San Jose. If you're saying their offensive group is 25th in the league, they should have the #1D in the league by a mile.

The defence rankings were published the day before and, yes, San Jose was No. 1. All the links are at the top of each article to navigate between the positions and also the power rankings.

 

[JeremyTB]

Again, I’m ranking each position more so on pure talent. A big reason for San Jose having four 30-plus goal scorers and six 50-plus point producers is the defencemen feeding them the puck, generating rebounds for them, maintaining possession and tilting the ice towards the offensive zone.

Put the Sharks forwards in front of Edmonton’s defence, do they still produce to those levels? I separated the positions and judged the forwards as if they were dropped onto any team, which groups would perform the best based on their talent? That is where the Sharks landed for me. They don’t have elite top-end talent, they don’t have great depth right now (that improves if/when Thornton and Marleau sign), they lost three of their top nine from the playoff roster without replacing them, and they benefit with inflated totals thanks to the defence.

So Meier,Hertl,Couture, Kane, Labanc, Thornton, are all just products of the Sharks Dmen? Are you trying to say players like Kassian,Granlund, Neal, Khaira, Chiasson are better talents than them? And Sharks aren't the only team that gets alot of offense from their Dmen. I am pretty sure if you put those Sharks forwards infront of the Oilers D they would still produce much more than those borderline 3rd and 4th line players the Oilers have behind McDavid,Draisaitl, and RNH. Outside of the Oilers top 3 forwards there is not a single player that would crack the Sharks top 9. And the Oilers will have 3 of them playing in their top 6. And ironically if you want to talk about players that benefited the most from Burns and EK65 it was Pavelski since he scored most of his goals on tips and rebounds.