So I did a few min of digging and would have to generally agree and soften my stance a bit, because long term deals off an ELC don't happen very often. And the players who do sign them are more proven (at least in terms of headline production) than Chytil. Lastly for the record, I wasn't expecting him to get more than a bridge, I knew this was 99% chance the action that would be taken.
Here are a few examples of ~middle six centers (not including MacKinnon, Schiefele, etc.) who got LT deals off their bridge:
- Trocheck - $4.75 x 6. Signed at age 23, UFA at age 29. Prior to signing in his last 2 seasons he had 75 points in 126 games (0.60 p/g)
- Horvat - $5.5 x 6. Signed at age 22, UFA at age 28. Prior to signing in his last 2 seasons he had 92 points in 163 games (0.56 p/g)
- Monahan - $6.8 x 7. Signed at age 21, UFA at age 28. Prior to signing in his last 2 seasons he had 125 points in 162 games (0.77 p/g)
- Larkin - $6.1 x 5. Signed at age 22, UFA at age 27. Prior to signing in his last 2 seasons he had 95 points in 162 games (0.59 p/g)
- Dvorak - $4.5 x 6. Signed at age 23, UFA at age 29. Prior to signing in his last 2 seasons he had 44 points in 98 games (0.45 p/g)
Now clearly looking at this, Chytil at age 21 racking up 45 pts in 102 games (0.44) would be most comparable to Dvorak, of which the jury is still out. I get it. He hasn't done enough to justify the $4.5-5M over term it would have taken to sign him.
That said, while I accept the bridge, there are three reasons I would not say I am "pro-bridge" and would like to see the NYR take the chance on some longer term deals for players off their ELC:
- Even if Chytil is Dvorak...the contract will be moveable. Let's see what Dvorak gets if/when he is moved. Skjei got the NYR a 1st round pick and full contract relief. A 25 year old NHLer, even if slightly overpaid, will have value on the market especially with term.
- Over the last window, pinching pennies for bridges was IMO not ideal. It lead directly or indirectly to losing Miller, Hagelin, Hayes too soon and/or the kicker, for too little return. Plus overpaying/overterming Stepan which they fortunately got out of.
- Chytil could be more than his headline production due to usage. In the last 2 years of ELC before their second contract, here are the 5v5 pt / 60 and ranking among centers across the NHL for all the same comps:
- Trocheck – 2.12, 11th
- Horvat – 1.66, 80th
- Monahan – 1.78, 49th
- Larkin – 1.61, 93rd
- Dvorak – 1.47, 134th
- Chytil = 1.91, 57th
Interesting that if you were to poll people on the best and worst contracts of this group, Trocheck would be near the top and Dvorak near the bottom…