Proposal: Rangers-Ducks (Nash/Fowler)

OCSportsfan

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Sep 30, 2011
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How did we win the jennings, relying so much on fowler, if hes so bad? Is Lindholm a god or something?

Why yes, yes he is. I hope he signs soon, and for a long time

BB liked Fowler, and played him a lot. Although he does many things well (like exiting the d-zone with the puck), and played tough minutes, he has holes in his game and they are taken advantage of by the better players.

The stats do not lie, but they do not tell the whole story. His Corsi is bad, and will always be average based on how he plays. It is the reason why many Ducks fans are okay with losing him rather than Vatanen or Lindholm (or even Manson in my case). But he is not a liability.

He is a top 2-3 defenseman that can be great and can be terrible in the same game.

That being said, there is nothing on NYR that would be of interest that you would be willing to trade, even for Fowler.
 

mytduxfan*

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Why yes, yes he is. I hope he signs soon, and for a long time

BB liked Fowler, and played him a lot. Although he does many things well (like exiting the d-zone with the puck), and played tough minutes, he has holes in his game and they are taken advantage of by the better players.

The stats do not lie, but they do not tell the whole story. His Corsi is bad, and will always be average based on how he plays. It is the reason why many Ducks fans are okay with losing him rather than Vatanen or Lindholm (or even Manson in my case). But he is not a liability.

He is a top 2-3 defenseman that can be great and can be terrible in the same game.

That being said, there is nothing on NYR that would be of interest that you would be willing to trade, even for Fowler.

Lindholm is so good that he can use his mind to make sure we still win the Jennings despite Fowler being absolutely awful whilst playing our toughest minutes. Gotta re-sign that guy fast.
 

Sojourn

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Nov 1, 2006
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Lindholm was one of those who statistically benefited from Fowler's role.

He's going to have his work cut out for him next season. I think he's up to the task(not sold yet on the rest of the blue line), but those shot metrics are going to drop.
 

go4hockey

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Oct 14, 2007
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But Fowler surely has the advantage in strength of forward teammates, which also can effect a d-man's numbers positively or negatively.

You really need to put the stat book away and just watch hockey from time to time. People that go strictly on stats just don't understand the game and those arguments are silly as the stat junk is just a portion that mean less and less without the eye test knowledge.
 

HanSolo

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This has about run its course no? It's no longer about the proposal and instead the thread has become "Rangers fans teach Ducks fans about why a Ducks player sucks more than they think he does"

or more simply "The Why Cam Fowler sucks Thread"
 

DisneyDucky

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This has about run its course no? It's no longer about the proposal and instead the thread has become "Rangers fans teach Ducks fans about why a Ducks player sucks more than they think he does"

or more simply "The Why Cam Fowler sucks Thread"

All fowler related threads become "the why cam fowler sucks thread". Lets save everyone time and just sticky that under the rules thread.
 

NateB19

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Feb 25, 2016
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Nash is better than Silferberg and Fowler is horribly overrated. Skjei will be as good as McDonagh. No need for another LHD and definitely not trading Skjei.
 

silverfish

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Fair enough. Apologies.

Some of that applies, to varying degrees, but it would be inaccurate to say they painted a complete picture. It's not really an eye-test thing, either. I don't think it's as simple as saying "watch how good he is!" It's more the philosophy and role that Boudreau seemed to emphasize with Cam.

And I'm not going to pretend that there isn't some speculation here, because there is. None of us are in the locker room, or on the bench, and we don't know what Boudreau is asking of Fowler. It was just a constant theme in the way Fowler played, and the way Boudreau used him. Fowler would hit the red line, and he'd dump it in, and then go for a change. Sometimes shortly after a puck drop, and even if he had just recently hit the ice. Opportunities were there for him to skate into lanes, or pinch in the offensive zone, and there didn't seem to be a willingness to take those opportunities, except late in a game when the team needed goals.

On one hand, you can point to Bieksa for some of this, because would you trust him to cover your ass? I wouldn't. That's one thing that Fowler has always managed to do: Make a questionable D partner look good. Still, it isn't just that. It's hard to believe it wasn't coach mandated, because it kept happening under Boudreau. Not only did it keep happening, but Boudreau seemed happy with the results. Whatever his shot metrics were, Boudreau kept using him in those situations, and the team continued to find success. Not only did the team find success, but they won the Jennings. Boudreau just seemed to want Fowler on the ice for certain situations. Those weren't the only situations that Fowler was on the ice for at even strength, but I think there was a clear and defined role that Fowler had, that involved defensive and neutral zone face-offs, to get the team out of trouble spots, and send the puck the other way. Once the team was out of that situation, the D rotated normally. If that makes sense.

And this isn't like Girardi, who gets to lean on someone like McDonagh. Bieksa is, very clearly, not a Ryan McDonagh.

Edit: I think the best summary is that Boudreau leaned on Fowler to try to get the puck moving the other direction. He's a really good puck mover, and he has an excellent short pass. But he wasn't staying on the ice to reap the benefits. That's the most concise I can get.

I'm not sure if there is any public available dump-in vs carry-in data, but it'd be interesting to see Fowler's #s there versus the rest of the team. Either way, I'm definitely interested in the case study that seems to be Cam Fowler's 5v5 underlying numbers.

You really need to put the stat book away and just watch hockey from time to time. People that go strictly on stats just don't understand the game and those arguments are silly as the stat junk is just a portion that mean less and less without the eye test knowledge.

All I'm going to say to this is that I love hockey enough to want to explore these stats to understand the game I dedicate hours upon hours a day to. To me, when I read things like this, it just seems like people willfully ignoring a part of the game that can help explain some of the things we see (or do not see) on the ice.
 

Section32

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Nash is better than Silferberg and Fowler is horribly overrated. Skjei will be as good as McDonagh. No need for another LHD and definitely not trading Skjei.

Way too early to be thinking of Skjei even close to that, but the disregard he gets in the thread is telling how little people know about him.

His skating is awesome.

I have no idea why he is such an unknown...
 

Ducks in a row

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Nash & Skjei for Fowler and Silfverberg

Ducks get a scoring left winger that could put up big points on first or second line and an NHL ready dman to replace Fowler.

Rangers get a puck moving dman to slot in behind Mcdonagh on left side and a winger who can play on both sides that can put up 40-50 points.

Nash makes too much money has been a playoff disappointment in his career and 2 of the last 3 seasons he has had injury problems causing him to miss a nice amount of games. Skjei is a 22 year old defenseman prospect that we don't need we are strong with defenseman prospects.

Not trading Fowler and Silfverberg for that.

Yeah, no. The Rangers want futures for Nash, not a player like Fowler.

The GM has gone on record saying he wasn't going to make a deal just to make a deal. Fowler fits literally none of our needs, and he's mediocre-to-bad in nearly every facet of the game.

Nash is probably going to stay put, have a nice season, and be auctioned at the TDL. There's no point in NYR trading him right now if they have to take a crap return. Despite all his troubles last season, his ES impact was still among the best in the league. He just had a ridiculously low shot % and got injured.

To say this means you know nothing about Fowler.

nash for rakell + 3rd

Ducks are not trading Rakell and a 3rd for Nash we don't want Nash at all.

Nash is better than Silferberg and Fowler is horribly overrated. Skjei will be as good as McDonagh. No need for another LHD and definitely not trading Skjei.

Sure Nash is better then Silfverberg but Silfverberg is younger and hasn't been missing a lot of games in 2 of the last 3 seasons and isn't a playoff disappointment in his career like Nash is.

Fowler is not horribly overrated he is underrated because people love to look at warrior charts and judge him so harshly based on that instead of looking at everything.

Skjei might become as good as McDonagh but he has a long way to go to get there and he has strong chance to never become that good.
 

Dijock94

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I don't get this the Rangers are deep with LHD. Their weakness is RHD. Fowler will end up somewhere else.
 

Spazkat

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Feb 19, 2015
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All fowler related threads become "the why cam fowler sucks thread". Lets save everyone time and just sticky that under the rules thread.

Thats how it goes on HF trade boards

*someone proposes bad trade: player X for player Y

*fans of player Y's team as well as other random fans chime in "don't want X at all" "X isnt worth that" "bad value" etc

*fans of X's team flood the thread with how Y is soooo bad that anyone from the other team should be glad to bend over and beg to have X's team take that terrible player off their hands

*add in some random arguments over stats vs eye test and voila. thread complete
 

Dijock94

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Thats how it goes on HF trade boards

*someone proposes bad trade: player X for player Y

*fans of player Y's team as well as other random fans chime in "don't want X at all" "X isnt worth that" "bad value" etc

*fans of X's team flood the thread with how Y is soooo bad that anyone from the other team should be glad to bend over and beg to have X's team take that terrible player off their hands

*add in some random arguments over stats vs eye test and voila. thread complete

I don't see the value being off, it's just that the trade proposal doesn't make sense for either team really. Anaheim needs a LW, Zucc is a RW. Rangers need a RD Fowler is a LD. Something like Kreider for Montour + makes more sense
 

bernmeister

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Jun 11, 2010
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Hah, this guy again. I'd love to pull up some of your old kreider valuations. Always good for a laugh.

Feel free, your unwarranted critique of me makes YOU look foolish.
Then we can all have a good laugh.

Kreider and Skjei are superior skaters.
I said that factually true statement
Would take heavy overpayment for NY to move.
And this is in error because?....
 

silverfish

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This is an analysis I did for the Rangers earlier in the season. After discussing Fowler with some of you today, I was curious how the Anaheim Ducks D would stack up here as well. I've had some issues with the way that some of the advanced stats sites out there have measured quality of competition, using corsi for it. In theory, it makes sense (to me, at least). However, I always felt that there was more that could be done.

In the end, I came up with this sort of proxy that takes for each defenseman the ten forwards they spent the most time on ice against last season and calculating their average 5v5 points. This way, the competition metric is completely points-based.

Since each player obviously has a different time on ice against the defensemen, what I do is I weight their total time on ice against each player, and use that weighting to calculate average points.

Steps:

  1. List out top ten forwards each d-man spent the most time on ice against this past season 5v5
  2. Get an index to weight point totals by dividing each players time on ice against by the average time on ice against of the ten player sample
  3. multiply goals and assists by the weight for each player
  4. average the ten weighted goals and assists to get average goals, assists, and points

I'm terrible at explaining things. Anyway, here's what the Anaheim D looks like:

FPF50hi.png


For comparison, this is what NYR looked like:

1460418146452


(AV is not known for his subtlety)

Looks like of the top-6 D, only Stoner was the truly 'sheltered' one in terms of competition faced. I think some fans may find it interesting though that Manson faced tougher competition than Fowler; and the fact that Manson is a true stud.

One flaw in this analysis that I realized about half way through and didn't feel like going back to fix is that I didn't pace the point totals for the forwards faced over 82 games. So in Stoner's counts, I'm including 897 seconds of ice time against Prust's 8 5v5 points this season in just 35 games, rather than the 18.7 points that Prust would record on an 82 game pace.

I'm going to log off HF now :laugh:
 
Last edited:

Dijock94

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Fowler is 24 so I'm pretty sure he would be considered a futures deal. Fowler being anchored by Bieksa is mediocre in a lot of areas but a 40 point d-man is what he is when he's actually given someone that can play off of him and I think New York could actually supply that kind of partner. To say that doesn't fill any of the Rangers needs after losing Yandle with no replacement is a reach on your part.

The only way that Nash gets a legitimate futures trade is if he's held onto until the 2018 trade deadline. If the Rangers want to do that, more power to them. There will be plenty of teams interested in Fowler if the Ducks want to move him. No GM in their right mind is going to consider him a mediocre-to-bad in all facets of the game.

Skjei is Yandles replacement.
 

caliamad

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What I love is all these threads trying to tell us fowler is awful while requesting him a trade.

Ducks value him as a top 2 defenseman, pony up or move on. Ducks would like to improve their forward Core and if fowler can give us a good return we would do it, but we are more than happy to keep him until next offseason.
 

Section32

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Nash makes too much money has been a playoff disappointment in his career and 2 of the last 3 seasons he has had injury problems causing him to miss a nice amount of games. Skjei is a 22 year old defenseman prospect that we don't need we are strong with defenseman prospects.

Not trading Fowler and Silfverberg for that.



To say this means you know nothing about Fowler.



Ducks are not trading Rakell and a 3rd for Nash we don't want Nash at all.



Sure Nash is better then Silfverberg but Silfverberg is younger and hasn't been missing a lot of games in 2 of the last 3 seasons and isn't a playoff disappointment in his career like Nash is.

Fowler is not horribly overrated he is underrated because people love to look at warrior charts and judge him so harshly based on that instead of looking at everything.

Skjei might become as good as McDonagh but he has a long way to go to get there and he has strong chance to never become that good.

Man.

First off, your comments are extremely contradictory.

I fully understand how and why you wouldn't want Nash, but you go off off on rants about how Fowler is so amazing. If so, why would the Ducks be looking to move him in the first place? You just run yourself in circles.

To dismiss the "22 your old prospect" that the Ducks "don't need" is just a silly statement that makes you look as biased and uninformed as you cry out about anyone who disagrees with you.

I have not seen many of the Ducks D prospects, but clearly you haven't seen Skjei either.
 

Section32

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May 26, 2011
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What I love is all these threads trying to tell us fowler is awful while requesting him a trade.

Ducks value him as a top 2 defenseman, pony up or move on. Ducks would like to improve their forward Core and if fowler can give us a good return we would do it, but we are more than happy to keep him until next offseason.

If that is true, why would he be on the block?

Top pairing D are gold in today's League.

I think Fowler is a very, very good dman. But a number 2 on one of the best defensive teams in the NHL would immediately seem like a young, high-end star forward would be the ask.

Who?
 

dracom

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Dec 22, 2015
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If that is true, why would he be on the block?

Top pairing D are gold in today's League.

I think Fowler is a very, very good dman. But a number 2 on one of the best defensive teams in the NHL would immediately seem like a young, high-end star forward would be the ask.

Who?

because we need a good, young top 6 forward. and we know we have to give to get. a lot of fans on here don't seem to understand that (not a jab at anyone in particular, just a statement that many people try to go with quantity over quality).
 

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