Proposal: Rangers-Ducks (Nash/Fowler)

[silverfish]

I've addressed why they do. It's role based. To elaborate, when Bieksa isn't with Fowler, he isn't put in the same situations. Of course, you wouldn't know that by just looking at those numbers. That would require you to watch the games.

And no. Girardi spent a lot of time with McDonagh and Yandle at ES, both of whom are superior defensemen. I also don't watch him enough to know how he's used, which is something I'm actually willing to say. I have no problem saying I don't have enough information on another team's players to give a proper analysis. You might learn something from that.

Fowler played over 150 minutes last season with 11 players. All 11 of them had a better CF% away from Fowler.

It doesn't satisfy me here to say that it's all situational based.

Anyway, as stated earlier, I am very happy to allow the Ducks to keep Fowler and keep him off the Rangers

 

[eco's bones]

I've addressed why they do. It's role based. To elaborate, when Bieksa isn't with Fowler, he isn't put in the same situations. Of course, you wouldn't know that by just looking at those numbers. That would require you to watch the games.

And no. Girardi spent a lot of time with McDonagh and Yandle at ES, both of whom are superior defensemen. I also don't watch him enough to know how he's used, which is something I'm actually willing to say. I have no problem saying I don't have enough information on another team's players to give a proper analysis. You might learn something from that.

Going forward I would rather have Skjei than Fowler. Fowler is fairly one dimensional. Skjei is defense first but does have offensive upside. He's big and is an excellent skater--moves the puck well and has excellent shot velocity. There's a decent chance he could turn out to be as good as McDonagh. Their styles--size, skating are very similar.

I don't think of Yandle as a superior defenseman by the way. I'm not one of those Rangers fans that's really lamenting over losing him to Florida. No way would I have given him a 7 year term at over $6 mil per. He's a train wreck when it comes to actually defending. McDonagh is far and away a better player.

 

[Sojourn]

Fowler played over 150 minutes last season with 11 players. All 11 of them had a better CF% away from Fowler.

It doesn't satisfy me here to say that it's all situational based.

Anyway, as stated earlier, I am very happy to allow the Ducks to keep Fowler and keep him off the Rangers

I don't care if it "satisfies" you. That isn't my goal. I'm telling you how he was used by Boudreau.

You already have your preconceived notions regarding Fowler, and it's pretty clear that you won't bother entertaining anything outside of those preconceptions. Go ahead, stick to them. Continue being ignorant regarding a player that you never see. That doesn't matter to me even a little. I've simply tried explaining to you how Fowler has been used, and why the shot differential numbers are misleading. If you had any interest at all in informing yourself on the player, you'd do your own research, and you'd start by accepting that player usage plays a role in shot metrics, and then you'd further want to see how the player was used.

It isn't up to other posters to educate you. If you want to believe that shot metrics tell you everything you need to know about a player, that's fine. You have fun with that. Hockey is a little bit more complicated than that.

 

[RangerGuru]

McDonagh
Staal
Skjei

The left side is fine. We need RHD. If that isn't on the table the Rangers keep Nash. Literally no need for Fowler on this team, if the Ducks don't want Nash that's fine we will keep him, odds are high that he bounces back to 25-30 goals minimum with solid to great defense, there is no need to sell low or trading goal scoring for something that isn't a position of need

 

[go4hockey]

McDonagh
Staal
Skjei

The left side is fine. We need RHD. If that isn't on the table the Rangers keep Nash. Literally no need for Fowler on this team, if the Ducks don't want Nash that's fine we will keep him, odds are high that he bounces back to 25-30 goals minimum with solid to great defense, there is no need to sell low or trading goal scoring for something that isn't a position of need

Either way the NYR will keep Nash as you would need to retain some of that hit to even be able to move him. I hope nobody helps the sinking ship that is your hockey team.

 

[silverfish]

I don't care if it "satisfies" you. That isn't my goal. I'm telling you how he was used by Boudreau.

You already have your preconceived notions regarding Fowler, and it's pretty clear that you won't bother entertaining anything outside of those preconceptions. Go ahead, stick to them. Continue being ignorant regarding a player that you never see. That doesn't matter to me even a little. I've simply tried explaining to you how Fowler has been used, and why the shot differential numbers are misleading. If you had any interest at all in informing yourself on the player, you'd do your own research, and you'd start by accepting that player usage plays a role in shot metrics, and then you'd further want to see how the player was used.

It isn't up to other posters to educate you. If you want to believe that shot metrics tell you everything you need to know about a player, that's fine. You have fun with that. Hockey is a little bit more complicated than that.

I'm happy to compromise here.

Do you have a favorite usage adjustments model? If you point me to it, I'm happy to investigate Fowler a little deeper. Normally, I'd just go to corsica.hockey, but I don't want to waste my time if that's an adjustments system that won't be deemed suitable.

I'm interested. I'm in. I want to find out why the numbers don't paint the right picture for Fowler. Let's investigate together.

stats.hockeyanalysis has a zone start adjustment page that I'm not entirely too fond of, but it's a start.

Using that, Fowler's 11 players drops to 9 (because their version of adjusting for zone starts is to eliminate the first 10 seconds after a puck drop). Of those 9 players, still zone start adjusted, 8 of the 9 see an increase in CF% away from Fowler. The only player who'se CF% goes down away from Fowler is Santorelli; 49.8% together | 49.6% apart.

Sidenote: Would you be willing to go to bat on the usage concept for Girardi, as well? They look quite similar here...

 

[Beer League Sniper]

You're wasting your time, silverfish. You've just proven that Dan freakin Girardi plays tougher minutes and produces more at ES than Cam Fowler. Prepare to get **** on, becuz eye test.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You're wasting your time, silverfish. You've just proven that Dan freakin Girardi plays tougher minutes and produces more at ES than Cam Fowler. Prepare to get **** on, becuz eye test.

You're trying to make an argument that Dan Girardi is a better defenseman than Cam Fowler. You want to go with that then that's your call as you have a right to be wrong. lol

 

[Beer League Sniper]

You're trying to make an argument that Dan Girardi is a better defenseman than Cam Fowler. You want to go with that then that's your call as you have a right to be wrong. lol

The fact that those two players can even be compared is the biggest joke of all. Any decent dman will blow Girardi's chart out of the water.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The fact that those two players can even be compared is the biggest joke of all. Any decent dman will blow Girardi's chart out of the water.

It's a joke because you're making it one in believing that those stats are the be-all, end-all to comparing defensemen.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

The fact that those two players can even be compared is the biggest joke of all. Any decent dman will blow Girardi's chart out of the water.

Fowler's chart would look a lot better if he spent the majority of his time with Ryan McDonagh rather than Kevin Bieksa.

 

[silverfish]

Fowler's chart would look a lot better if he spent the majority of his time with Ryan McDonagh rather than Kevin Bieksa.

But Fowler surely has the advantage in strength of forward teammates, which also can effect a d-man's numbers positively or negatively.

 

[gorangers0525]

a meh defenseman is not the answer to this meh defense, simple as that

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Fowler's chart would look a lot better if he spent the majority of his time with Ryan McDonagh rather than Kevin Bieksa.

How many times do you need to be told the numbers have been adjusted for that?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

But Fowler surely has the advantage in strength of forward teammates, which also can effect a d-man's numbers positively or negatively.

I think that is not a good assumption to make.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

How many times do you need to be told the numbers have been adjusted for that?

There is no adjusted stat that would be able to properly explain the difference between playing with McDonagh vs Bieksa.

But Fowler surely has the advantage in strength of forward teammates, which also can effect a d-man's numbers positively or negatively.

A defenseman spends a lot more time with his partner than any toward. In Fowler's case, 23% more time spent with Bieksa than any other player. Pretty safe to say Bieksa is affecting his stats more than anyone else on the Ducks roster.

 

[Sojourn]

I'm happy to compromise here.

Do you have a favorite usage adjustments model? If you point me to it, I'm happy to investigate Fowler a little deeper. Normally, I'd just go to corsica.hockey, but I don't want to waste my time if that's an adjustments system that won't be deemed suitable.

I'm interested. I'm in. I want to find out why the numbers don't paint the right picture for Fowler. Let's investigate together.

stats.hockeyanalysis has a zone start adjustment page that I'm not entirely too fond of, but it's a start.

Using that, Fowler's 11 players drops to 9 (because their version of adjusting for zone starts is to eliminate the first 10 seconds after a puck drop). Of those 9 players, still zone start adjusted, 8 of the 9 see an increase in CF% away from Fowler. The only player who'se CF% goes down away from Fowler is Santorelli; 49.8% together | 49.6% apart.

No, I don't, because player usage goes beyond adjusting for zone starts. You're still trying to use the numbers to do the work for you.

Look, if you want to watch how Fowler is used, go watch some of the Anaheim games in November or December. Watch how he was used. That's it. That's the compromise. You'll see a trend in how Boudreau used him at even strength, and the situations he was put in. Watch the poor D partner who is made to look halfway decent in Bieksa.

Statistics aren't going to tell you this. I'm not trying to sell you on trading for Fowler. I'm not trying to convince you he's some great defenseman, and you just can't see it. Not once in this thread have I said that. Please note that. This is entirely about how he was used, and how it impacts the statistics. You seem like an intelligent person. Surely you can understand how the way a coach uses a player can have a significant impact on his numbers. Roles are a big part of the NHL. The Ducks were one of the better teams in the NHL with Fowler averaging the most minutes on the team, and used in a very specific way by Boudreau. I think most would agree Boudreau is a good coach. This despite his poor shot metrics. Fowler was very successful in his role(his breakout numbers support this), but that role was not conducive to good shot metrics.

That's basically it. If you want to investigate, that's where you need to start. Fowler is going to end up on another team, with another coach, and suddenly those shot differentials will look better, and people are going to ask what the turnaround was. There isn't going to be one. He'll be the same player.

 

[lwvs84]

I think Ducks fans are looking at this wrong. Bieksa carried that pairing and thinks he's a PMD. We'll give him to the Rangers for free. Solves everyone's problems

And if Bieksa looks better away from Fowler, NY is about as far as you can get. He'll win the Norris.

 

[silverfish]

I think that is not a good assumption to make.

Girardi's top-5 forward teammates:

Zuccarello, Brassard, Miller, Kreider, Fast

Fowler's top-5 forward teammates:

Silfverberg, Kesler, Getzlaf, Cogliano, Perry

Let's see who hates their team more between us

No, I don't, because player usage goes beyond adjusting for zone starts. You're still trying to use the numbers to do the work for you.

Look, if you want to watch how Fowler is used, go watch some of the Anaheim games in November or December. Watch how he was used. That's it. That's the compromise. You'll see a trend in how Boudreau used him at even strength, and the situations he was put in. Watch the poor D partner who is made to look halfway decent in Bieksa.

Statistics aren't going to tell you this. I'm not trying to sell you on trading for Fowler. I'm not trying to convince you he's some great defenseman, and you just can't see it. Not once in this thread have I said that. Please note that. This is entirely about how he was used, and how it impacts the statistics. You seem like an intelligent person. Surely you can understand how the way a coach uses a player can have a significant impact on his numbers. Roles are a big part of the NHL. The Ducks were one of the better teams in the NHL with Fowler averaging the most minutes on the team, and used in a very specific way by Boudreau. This despite his poor shot metrics. Fowler was very successful in his role(his breakout numbers support this), but that role was not conducive to good shot metrics.

That's basically it. If you want to investigate, that's where you need to start. Fowler is going to end up on another team, with another coach, and suddenly those shot differentials will look better, and people are going to ask what the turnaround was. There isn't going to be one. He'll be the same player.

So despite the fact that adjustments for everything that you've said here exist, you are not satisfied with them it sounds like.

That's totally cool.

 

[Sojourn]

So despite the fact that adjustments for everything that you've said here exist, you are not satisfied with them it sounds like.

That's totally cool.

So, despite the fact I tried to explain why you should watch how Boudreau used him, you're not satisfied it sounds like.

That's totally cool.

 

[silverfish]

So, despite the fact I tried to explain why you should watch how Boudreau used him, you're not satisfied it sounds like.

That's totally cool.

Sorry, wasn't trying to be a jerk with that message.

So what about Boudreau and how he used him can't be adjusted for?

Teammates? There are adjustments for that.
Competition? That too.
Zone starts? Yes.
Score? Yep.

I'm not sure what I'm missing here, and again, apologies if this comes off as me being some sort of ***hole or something. If someone says that a player's "eye-test" can differ as much as it seems to from his stats, I'm genuinely interested.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Girardi's top-5 forward teammates:

Zuccarello, Brassard, Miller, Kreider, Fast

Fowler's top-5 forward teammates:

Silfverberg, Kesler, Getzlaf, Cogliano, Perry

Let's see who hates their team more between us

Silfverberg - 34 ESP
Kesler - 37 ESP
Getzlaf - 40 ESP
Cogliano - 29 ESP
Perry - 38 ESP

Total: 178 ESP

Zuccarello - 43 ESP
Brassard - 36 ESP
Miller - 39 ESP
Kreider - 35 ESP
Fast - 30 ESP

Total: 183 ESP

Yeah, I wouldn't say that the advantage in forwards is in the Ducks' favor.

 

[DisneyDucky]

Sorry, wasn't trying to be a jerk with that message.

So what about Boudreau and how he used him can't be adjusted for?

Teammates? There are adjustments for that.
Competition? That too.
Zone starts? Yes.
Score? Yep.

I'm not sure what I'm missing here, and again, apologies if this comes off as me being some sort of ***hole or something. If someone says that a player's "eye-test" can differ as much as it seems to from his stats, I'm genuinely interested.

How did we win the jennings, relying so much on fowler, if hes so bad? Is Lindholm a god or something?

 

[Sojourn]

Sorry, wasn't trying to be a jerk with that message.

So what about Boudreau and how he used him can't be adjusted for?

Teammates? There are adjustments for that.
Competition? That too.
Zone starts? Yes.
Score? Yep.

I'm not sure what I'm missing here, and again, apologies if this comes off as me being some sort of ***hole or something. If someone says that a player's "eye-test" can differ as much as it seems to from his stats, I'm genuinely interested.

Fair enough. Apologies.

Some of that applies, to varying degrees, but it would be inaccurate to say they painted a complete picture. It's not really an eye-test thing, either. I don't think it's as simple as saying "watch how good he is!" It's more the philosophy and role that Boudreau seemed to emphasize with Cam.

And I'm not going to pretend that there isn't some speculation here, because there is. None of us are in the locker room, or on the bench, and we don't know what Boudreau is asking of Fowler. It was just a constant theme in the way Fowler played, and the way Boudreau used him. Fowler would hit the red line, and he'd dump it in, and then go for a change. Sometimes shortly after a puck drop, and even if he had just recently hit the ice. Opportunities were there for him to skate into lanes, or pinch in the offensive zone, and there didn't seem to be a willingness to take those opportunities, except late in a game when the team needed goals.

On one hand, you can point to Bieksa for some of this, because would you trust him to cover your ass? I wouldn't. That's one thing that Fowler has always managed to do: Make a questionable D partner look good. Still, it isn't just that. It's hard to believe it wasn't coach mandated, because it kept happening under Boudreau. Not only did it keep happening, but Boudreau seemed happy with the results. Whatever his shot metrics were, Boudreau kept using him in those situations, and the team continued to find success. Not only did the team find success, but they won the Jennings. Boudreau just seemed to want Fowler on the ice for certain situations. Those weren't the only situations that Fowler was on the ice for at even strength, but I think there was a clear and defined role that Fowler had, that involved defensive and neutral zone face-offs, to get the team out of trouble spots, and send the puck the other way. Once the team was out of that situation, the D rotated normally. If that makes sense.

And this isn't like Girardi, who gets to lean on someone like McDonagh. Bieksa is, very clearly, not a Ryan McDonagh.

Edit: I think the best summary is that Boudreau leaned on Fowler to try to get the puck moving the other direction. He's a really good puck mover, and he has an excellent short pass. But he wasn't staying on the ice to reap the benefits. That's the most concise I can get.

 

[Rorschach]

Dux get rekt.