OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[Jaded-Fan]

We should sign Manny. Make up for not drafting him in the first place!

I bet if our payroll was only 50m right now we still wouldn't try.

I wish I would have won that billion dollar mega millions thing a few months back. I'd have walked right into HQ and said take this Nutting. Get out.

It has been tried, several times by guys who have billions and an interest in Pittsburgh, including by Burkle and Mario, and by Cuban:

Pirates tell Mavs' owner Cuban team not for sale

No thanks: Pirates tell Mavs' Cuban team not for sale

Nutting has a formula to print money and ain't giving it up until baseball actually grows a brain and institutes a cap and floor. Then he will sell in a NY minute.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I think you underselling Ahmed a bit. I dont know how accurate DRs is but Ahmed was better than Mercer by 30 runs. 30! Thats wlite defense.

His wRC+ was the same and that DRC+ is an indication he has even more in the bat.

Better by 30 runs in what?

What is indicating he has more with the bat? Every metric that put his bat against league average has it anywhere from 15% to 6% less than league average. There's nothing suggesting there's too much more in the bat to project.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Better by 30 runs in what?

What is indicating he has more with the bat? Every metric that put his bat against league average has it anywhere from 15% to 6% less than league average. There's nothing suggesting there's too much more in the bat to project.

Probably combined offensively and defensively, as in his net runs scored/runs saved is 30 runs better than Mercer. I'd bet that 95% of that comes from defense, but I don't think it's only defense.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I don't get the Ahmed love. His best year, 2018, is basically 2017 Jordy Mercer with a good glove.

16 homers but only slugged .411

Never broke .300 OBP even in limited playing time. His slash was .234/.290/.411 last year in his first season with 500+ ABs.

BP's shiney new toy (Deserved Runs Created +) has him with a DRC+ of 88 in his career and 94 last season. (DRC+ is a really fun new stat they just rolled out. Check it out, it was designed to be predictive and descriptive and take into account ballpark factors AND pitchers faced and those pitcher's tendencies and quality)

You're pretty much looking at a Clint Barmes clone with the bat and probably a hair under that with the glove.

ETA- While I agree he's probably an upgrade over what they currently have on the depth chart, he's not really an upgrade I would spend assets to acquire. Even if that asset is only Nick Kingham.

From the Pirates point of view they probably like him a lot because hes cheap.

He made 1.2 million last year, i'm sure he will get a nice raise in arbitration, but it still wouldn't be a big contract.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Over their careers, the offensive numbers for Ahmed and Mercer have been shocking similar.

Pick your favorite metric and Mercer and Ahmed are pretty much neck and neck. Granted Mercer's have been full time and Ahmed's are half full time and half part time, but the information presented paints them as pretty much similar batters.

If you're just looking for a defensive upgrade over Mercer, sign Iglesias and keep your assets. And from what I've read on Gonzalez, he's going to be glove first and hoping the bat catches up. I don't think either Iglesias or Ahmed are anything but paper upgrades. I don't think either are going to move the on-field results too much, in either direction. They're fine, but not really impact enough.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I said the same thing to DJ about signing Iglesias and keeping your assets.

I'm just saying from the Pirates point of view money is everything to them and Iglesias will make a lot more money then Ahmed will.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Better by 30 runs in what?

What is indicating he has more with the bat? Every metric that put his bat against league average has it anywhere from 15% to 6% less than league average. There's nothing suggesting there's too much more in the bat to project.

30 runs better in defensive runs saved. +21 compared to -9.

As far as the bat im looking at the 94 DRC+ the hard hit going up, and the bad BABIP. Im not aayinh he will be a good hitter but average to slightly below with that level of defense is a substantial difference over what we got out of Mercer last year.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can jive with that, but overall I still stand by it's not enough to really move the needle too much for the Pirates on-field. Especially with Newman/Gonzo then Kang/Moran and Fraizer and Bell looking to be solidly in place for every day ABs. Adding a weak bat, strong glove guy to be another SuperU guy doesn't really do much, IMO, for the team.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can jive with that, but overall I still stand by it's not enough to really move the needle too much for the Pirates on-field. Especially with Newman/Gonzo then Kang/Moran and Fraizer and Bell looking to be solidly in place for every day ABs. Adding a weak bat, strong glove guy to be another SuperU guy doesn't really do much, IMO, for the team.

I think the problem is that you're not going to get much better than a strong glove and a bad bat at SS. The problem with the Pirates is that their should be power positions don't offer any power, and the rest of their positions aren't power positions in the first place. The screw up here is having Moran, Frazier and Bell as your 3rd, 2nd and 1st basemen, not lacking power at SS. They're probably banking on Kang getting back to where he once was to improve their power, but it's a problem of the rest of their players not having power.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I can agree with that.

I guess my main overall thing is that Ahmed is a perfectly fine player, but on a team that's going to pinch every cent they spend, I don't see him being worth even the small (by MLB contract standards) investment Ahmed would likely command for, again my opinion, a very minimal upgrade at best and a clone of Gonzo at worst.

I don't have anything against Ahmed as a player, it's just in the context of the team and organizational history of spending, I'd rather divert funds elsewhere.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It's happening... we're getting Abreu!!!!! (/s)

 

[cheesedanish87]

I'm not expecting very much in return.

If we get something decent i'l be happy.

 

[Winger for Hire]

More international money to sign a shit ton of "unknown" international kids and hope something sticks for cheap. Hope the pitcher at least has some upside.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Oh wow, giving up Nova for literally nothing. Wonderful.

They better be adding Gray or another LHP if they're trading Nova. Just trading Nova because he's expensive for a #5 pitcher seems like a very poor decision.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Are we going to use Nova's 8.5 million in salary to help this years team or will that money be going into Nutting's pocket is what i want to know.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Holding out hope for Cease to come back in the Nova deal.......

 

[ImporterExporter]

It has been tried, several times by guys who have billions and an interest in Pittsburgh, including by Burkle and Mario, and by Cuban:



No thanks: Pirates tell Mavs' Cuban team not for sale

Nutting has a formula to print money and ain't giving it up until baseball actually grows a brain and institutes a cap and floor. Then he will sell in a NY minute.

Yep. And the sad thing is tens of thousands pour money into his pockets in the hope that he'll actually try to field a good baseball squad.

He will not spend money. TV deal or not. Will not happen. And baseball will never put a cap in. Not in the near future at least. The deck is stacked and teams like NY, LA, Boston hold all the power.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Are we going to use Nova's 8.5 million in salary to help this years team or will that money be going into Nutting's pocket is what i want to know.

The trade itself answers your question. We traded a guy who makes a decent chunk of change for stuff that doesn't add a dime to the payroll. We'll sign some 16 year old who has about a 1% chance of becoming anything worthwhile and people will forget about the deal by tomorrow.

Smoke and mirrors.

 

[TimmyD]

So trying to look on the bright side.... they are trading Nova for nothing to clear more room for Machado!

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

So trying to look on the bright side.... they are trading Nova for nothing to clear more room for Machado!

Isnt Nova just being gone bright enough.

 

[Winger for Hire]

We know the big names are out, so I'm getting really ansty with all this money saved shit.

They're hovering around $70m in projected payroll with all the arb numbers filled in (estimates) and seeming have starters set at every position except #5 starter, 1 or 2 pens spots, and maybe SS- depending on how literal you take NH's media speak.

Trading Cervelli takes them down close to $60m.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't even care how much money they're spending on the team, I just want better than bargain bin options that will give them a .500 season. I'm happy to keep payroll low if they're just adding good players, I have a problem with them being content with mediocrity more than them not spending money.

 

[Winger for Hire]

It's getting harder and harder to spend money frugally in the current climate of baseball because everyone is catching up to where it was a really big advantage to rummage around in the bargain bin while the big guns fought over the prizes. Now the big guns want the prizes and are filling out their rosters with the bargain bin instead of bloated contracts. You have to spend a little more now if you want to supplement your team. Teams like the A's can do it because they make it their overwhelming goal to churn out MLB level prospects of all sorts. The Pirates don't have the prospect development to do that. Their farm waves are too far apart and sparsely populated.

I'm not saying that it's spend big or go home, but finding that discarded MLB gem for a bargain $1m/1 yr or similar cheap contract is getting harder because 6 years ago that player had 1 or 2 teams offering contracts, now that same player has like 5 teams offering contracts and MLB time. So you're going to have to up your offer.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Just for s&gs im guessing pilkington.

Young, tall, Miss st. All thing Huntington pops a chub over

 

[Winger for Hire]

Yordi Rosario, 19 yr old (in three seasons he has not been promoted out of their rookie complex)

As expected, not in their Top 30 list

Looks to be a 35FV guy with projected two good pitches, FB and CV. Currently those pitches are average.