OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[USMC607]

It's going to be a lonnnnngggg season.

NL East is in an arms race right now.

The cards getting Goldy and Brewers and Cubs looking to make moves.

While our Brass is probably hard at work finding us that oh so sought after financial flexibility.

I honestly am just so broken at this point, that the optimism I force on myself about this team almost makes me 2nd guess my sanity.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think your selling the package short.

I probably would have taken some risk there as well but Weaver and Kelley are highly thought of in GM circles.

I dont know how to embed but look at Jeff Passans and Ken Rosenthals twitter for reference.

Yeah, I guess it's probably not the best comparison, especially Kramer with Kelley. It's hard to make a straight up comparison, in part because the Cards tend to have a deeper system, whereas whatever minimal value we can extract needs to pretty much stay with the team. It's hard to even gauge what kind of value Bell would have against that package - presumably he'd be more valuable than those pieces, but not sure by how much.

In any case, the Cardinals were already the divisional team who gives us the most trouble, and now they have an MVP candidate. On the assumption that the Brewers pick up a little bit more help, it's going to be pretty difficult to be optimistic about even winning enough divisional games to stay afloat. The ways that this team can get better quickly are always going to be internal, but even if they did (good production out of 3B with Kang and Moran, Archer returning to ace-like form), I don't think it's enough wins. Every way I look at it, the situation is very close to last year, maybe slightly rosier. I think we're a safe bet to repeat, maybe add a handful more wins, but that's still definitively a tier below the WC race.

 

[Winger for Hire]

NL Central is a 3 team bloodbath... NL East is shaping up to be a 4 Corners deathmatch... NL West is mild with LA being the top dog and Colorado being Little Mac from Punch-Out.

I just can't see the Pirates, even with most things breaking their way, breaking into the playoff mix without adding something of real substance, not hoping on upside from a project.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's a new day, and now we have to concentrate our hopes on the fact that NH is playing the long game for Machado.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Given Pollock's departure and now the Goldy trade, I guess it's reasonable to wonder how much the Diamondbacks will tear down? I don't think it would move mountains, but Ahmed could provide a decent upgrade at SS. Always been a good defender, and had an offensive breakout of sorts last year, so selling high on him might be a wise decision. Maybe Newman and his years of control aren't enough, but Craig could be of interest, with rising stock.

I saw a tweet proposing both Ahmed and Ray, though it seems obvious that if the DBacks wanted to sell, they'd see if Ray could rebound and trade him at the deadline. But a lesser deal for Ahmed might be a creative and realistic target if the DBacks will listen on various players.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

And just to balance out that ridiculously mediocre suggestion, with Thor off the market, the obvious pivot is trade Marte for Kluber + sign Dozier and say YOLO with Frazier in CF, or Reyes....

 

[Winger for Hire]

I would love to trade for Ray, but even with a down and injured season I don't think his price in the Pirates' range. A lefty K-machine with a good arsenal and some control issues that can be ironed out AND controlled until 2021... I don't think that's really someone a rebuilding team is just going to give up for middling prospects and/or salary dumps. It would also be a case of the Dbacks selling low on a promising guy they really have no rush to dump.

Ahmed is nice, but it doesn't really tickle me as anything more than pushing slightly above .500. Which isn't to say he's not an upgrade, just another one of the guys I've seen and went, "I would really like to have this guy, if the team wasn't constructed as they currently are"

MODs- Sorry about the large image. I know better than that.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I still can't understand why you trade away those pieces for Archer if your not going all in.

The Pirates needed more then just Archer if they want to contend.

Between the Archer trade at the deadline and the Cole trade last winter i'm really starting to lose a lot of faith in NH.

I don't know what direction NH is taking this team.

Its like the Pirates are kind of trying to make moves to win now, but they aren't all the way in.

It leaves you right in the middle which is the worst place to be in.

You either gotta go all in or you gotta rebuild.

 

[TNT87]

I still can't understand why you trade away those pieces for Archer if your not going all in.

The Pirates needed more then just Archer if they want to contend.

Between the Archer trade at the deadline and the Cole trade last winter i'm really starting to lose a lot of faith in NH.

I don't know what direction NH is taking this team.

Its like the Pirates are kind of trying to make moves to win now, but they aren't all the way in.

It leaves you right in the middle which is the worst place to be in.

You either gotta go all in or you gotta rebuild.

I couldn't agree more. This team has no direction at all. Tear it all down or go for it by making moves and not the backup IF variety.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I agree - my best guess is that they are banking on the usual hopes of internal improvements, etc., and being overly cautious. Realistically, I can understand that Goldschmidt is hard to target with so much invested in Bell, and maybe getting Segura would have proved tricky, with Seattle deciding to do whatever they could to slash as much of Cano's contract as possible.

But at minimum, we need to be going all in relatively speaking, which means getting at least another above average position player or two. I think that the strategy of upgrading SS and solidifying the bullpen isn't the worst way to position ourselves: it will still not seem like we haven't been lapped by several other teams, but it would address some obvious weak spots and allow chips to fall where they will in terms of the internal performance from Bell, Moran, Frazier.

Offense is going to remain the glaring problem, but I think there's still something to be said for maximizing the pitching strength as much as we can. At bare minimum this needs to come through investing wisely in the bullpen, which if managed properly (...) would be one clear path towards squeezing the most out of some of the rotation spots.

 

[cheesedanish87]

The Pirates couldn't of signed him to that contract?

Schoop would of given the Pirates 20-30 home runs.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I doubt the Pirates were considering a 2B on the market.

At that price though, they really should have inquired. Fraizer as a starting 2B is OK, but Fraizer as a utility player might tickle me more with a proven player as his replacement.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Jason Rollison has connected them to Lowrie. That would definitely have been a cheap source of some good power. Still early, but given the rumors around Cervelli, signs are pointing towards financial flexibility...

Without moving anyone, we should be able to toss around 10-15 million in this market in order to pick up some marginal upgrades. If we can't do that, we should rebuild.

FWIW I like both Lowrie and Dozier more as 2B options. Dozier in particular on a rebound contract similar to Schoop's would be ideal. My guess is he had some nagging injuries last year. He can be a bit streaky but if the power bounces back, he can add both power and speed to the lineup.

 

[Brandinho]

The Pirates couldn't of signed him to that contract?

Schoop would of given the Pirates 20-30 home runs.

And absolutely nothing else. Hitting for power is the only thing he does well.

The Pirates need to spend more money, we're all in agreement there. The Pirates do not need to spend that money on the likes of Jonathan Schoop, though.

 

[Brandinho]

Jason Rollison has connected them to Lowrie. That would definitely have been a cheap source of some good power. Still early, but given the rumors around Cervelli, signs are pointing towards financial flexibility...

Without moving anyone, we should be able to toss around 10-15 million in this market in order to pick up some marginal upgrades. If we can't do that, we should rebuild.

FWIW I like both Lowrie and Dozier more as 2B options. Dozier in particular on a rebound contract similar to Schoop's would be ideal. My guess is he had some nagging injuries last year. He can be a bit streaky but if the power bounces back, he can add both power and speed to the lineup.

Lowrie seems like the best fit, but I can't shake the feeling that he's going to have one of his broken seasons if we sign him. He'll be 35 before the month of April is over and he's coming off the two best (read: healthiest) seasons of his career. Danger, Neal Huntington, danger.

 

[FlightlessBird]

An article I read referenced the other Castillo (Padres pitcher) as the one who died, but everything else seems to say it’s the former Pirate Castillo. According to the same article, Carlos Rivera survived.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Lowrie seems like the best fit, but I can't shake the feeling that he's going to have one of his broken seasons if we sign him. He'll be 35 before the month of April is over and he's coming off the two best (read: healthiest) seasons of his career. Danger, Neal Huntington, danger.

Yeah I am worried about that too. And I imagine he will command more term on his deal, and might want a final contract before retirement anyways, which puts even more risk there.

I've come around significantly on Frazier, but if we have a better second baseman and he's a utility player, then we're better off in general. My read is that he's penciled in as the everyday 2B, and has certainly earned a look there, so the connection to Lowrie could make sense as both 2B and SS, though as you say he's getting up there and hasn't played SS in a couple of years.

For that reason I like Dozier. He'll want a prove it contract, so there's not really a huge commitment, and the money won't be out of hand. Maybe we'll get lucky.

 

[OnMyOwn]

An article I read referenced the other Castillo (Padres pitcher) as the one who died, but everything else seems to say it’s the former Pirate Castillo. According to the same article, Carlos Rivera survived.

That’s sad. That country is horrendous traffic wise.

 

[Retrocity]

Just terrible.

 

[Winger for Hire]

If they're not gonna spend on a bat, make the bullpen deadly and sign Ottavino

 

[ImporterExporter]

It must be nice to a be a fan of a team that actually tries to improve their club year to year with legitimate baseball moves.

But don't worry, we got Lonnie Chisenhall.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If they're not gonna spend on a bat, make the bullpen deadly and sign Ottavino

Even though what we have to look forward to is just Jake Diekman and maybe somebody else as an intriguing camp invite, I do think that the more we can make the bullpen into a deadly weapon, the better off we'll be. We all already know this, but it's easy to forget just how unreal the shark tank era bullpen was, and it is a real key to winning a bunch of games that you maybe shouldn't have otherwise because of a poor offensive performance.

But the real plan remains: Nova for Hedges, Cervelli for two interesting Astros players, then use the savings + remaining budget for Manny. Book it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

(just to make sure we are all on the same page of nihilist irony, this is absolutely fake and i'm posting it to laugh at ourselves)