OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

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ChaosAgent

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The amount of .750-.800 OPS guys that Huntington has managed to cram into this lineup is astounding. Great at being average. Has to be some kind of record.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I was reading the other day that Melky had a pretty high avg exit velocity, but also didn't hit the ball in the air a ton. It sounds like the plan is to really focus on that, what Hurdle keeps calling "driving the ball," rather than really seeking after power. Given the lineup, that's probably not the worst strategy, but unless we get pretty consistent hitting out of all 8 spots, having no power just makes it that much harder to win. I truly think the approach is basically to aim and win every game 1-0 or 2-1.

Assuming Cabrera makes the team, I think the position players are basically settled, unless Cervelli is traded. We won't risk losing Stallings for nothing. Maybe we'll add another minor league deal or two, but I think the likelihood is more than we'll do that for pitchers. I hope I'm wrong and we bring in Iglesias, but that effectively amounts to having Newman start in AAA. And I hope we surprise and bring in Gio as well as a player like Sipp, but I think we're more likely to just bring in somebody like Koehler.
 

Empoleon8771

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Where would Cabrera even play? He seems perfect for an AL team to be a DH, but I just don't see a spot for him here. He has never played any position outside of OF, with most of his time coming at LF.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think he's going to be a part-time player as a backup for LF/RF. Chisenhall will probably get the lion's share of playing time with Polanco out, but assuming spring training goes well, I would guess that Cabrera kind of gets an extended look as the 4th OF, which becomes the 5th OF when Polanco returns. If he isn't contributing, he gets DFA'd.

Flip a coin between Newman and Gonzalez, and then the rest of the bench is Newman/Gonzalez, Diaz, Kang, Stallings, and Cabrera. If nobody is hurt, it becomes tricky when Polanco returns. But at least until then, Cabrera as a bat that can also hit right-handed is a pretty decent fit, with Dickerson and Chisenhall as lefties.

In the end I think he's a pinch hitter and occasional starter. His defense isn't anywhere near good enough to play more than part time, but he's a competent enough hitter to have on the bench. Maybe Dickerson can school him in how to become more adequate defensively. I do think that there's a perspective from which trading Cervelli makes sense, since it opens up a spot more fully, but it would be too reckless. And I think it'd be equally reckless to lose Stallings and have no backup for Diaz lined up. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we try to lure a catcher on a minor league deal that has decent incentives if they make the majors. It would be one way to take advantage of this terrible market and get some depth where you always need it.
 

DJ Spinoza

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It's not going to happen, so it's probably not worth wasting our breath about it, but with Ervin Santana still sitting out there on the free agent wire, it seems like we could address depth with a relatively low-cost, relatively high upside option. He had an injury that ruined his 2018 season, but it wasn't the type of injury that you worry about reoccurring, and even though he's 36, he had been very effective and also a workhorse. If we could bring him in on an incentive-driven contract which more or less amounted to what Nova would have made, but less guarantees, then that seems like a prudent way to cover ourselves in the event that the Lyles experiment wouldn't work and we don't rush Keller.

I think we're pretty fully committed to the Lyles experiment, and I bet Liriano is halfway an emergency depth option on top of being the de facto bullpen loogy (and in this sense, even though his slider has fallen off totally, he's a smart signing), but if we could get Santana, best case you get a guy who might bounce back for something like 3 WAR, and worse case you still have Lyles and Liriano as options to trot out, and then both Brault and Brubaker in order to not rush Keller.

I could see him trying to get a multi-year deal, but with the injury and the destroyed market, it seems unlikely. If we nab him and the team is bad, he's a decent rental option at the deadline, after which we can give Keller a full trial if he's ready. And in the "worst case" of Santana being good, the team being good, and Keller excelling and breaking down the door for a promotion, I'm sure we'd figure out how to weather such a nightmare.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Looks like John Sickels from Minor League Ball landed at the Athletic.

Does anyone subscribe? Is it worth it? They are having a February sale for MLB, of only 2.99/month.
 

dogthateats

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Looks like John Sickels from Minor League Ball landed at the Athletic.

Does anyone subscribe? Is it worth it? They are having a February sale for MLB, of only 2.99/month.
You can get a 3 month trial for $0.99. That’s what I did. I thought it was pretty good, but didn’t end up subscribing. I feel like I can find most of the same content from free sources.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Apparently the current PECOTA has the Cubs in the cellar with an 80-82 record, with us the the Reds both 81-81. Brewers winning with 88 wins, Cardinals with 87 wins.

While this is maybe overreaction and comes with all the contingencies of predictions, I do think it is indicative of the situation in the division right now. My current take is that the Cardinals are the best team all around and will win the division, but I think all the teams have a lot of variance, and you could jumble them up to end up with 88, 87, 81, 81, and 80 wins. Divisional games are going to get amplified massively, as will other little details, like the interleague matchups with the AL West teams. For example, the Brewers have to play the Astros twice, but it's two mini-series of two games, while we have a traditional series. Could the Brewers put together two solid games twice, and take a four game set, which would be less likely if they were bunched up. Or could they lost all four? Could we be white hot or ice cold when we play the Astros?

What about other teams in the division? And so forth.

Obviously, from a cold math standpoint, these are endless and don't lead anywhere, but I think these kinds of contingencies will end up being hugely important in winning the division. The Reds have made general improvements, the Cubs seem like they are resting on star power and general talent, the Brewers are all-in on out-offensing everyone, we're primarily going the pitching and small ball route, and the Cardinals are probably the best all around, as long as the bullpen is healthy. Which strategy is going to pay off the most over 162 games?
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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With our pitching(assuming no injuries) I cant see us having a 13-32(?) Stretch like we did last year.

I know alot are disappointed we didnt spend for a bat this offseason(same here) but I still see us competing for the division IF we get the pitching we got the second half of the season. Highly doubt our offense will be as bad as it was in August (which killed our playoff run).

Actually looking forward to this season. Yeah we didnt spend but doesnt mean we wont add during the season if things are going well
 

DJ Spinoza

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I agree, I think pitching is going to dictate a lot, which does echo back to previous years of success, where we made very modest offensive additions like Byrd. The only thing with in season addition is that a lot of the roster spots seem currently tied up in platoons of varying degrees of mediocrity. Honestly, I think the biggest internal improvement could be Newman really surprising, Tucker making a burst onto the scene earlier, or Kang really returning to his old form.

There are still some possibilities for deadline improvement, but they are harder to see. Still, I think a solid pitching staff is going to determine whether we feast or famine, and basically how relevant we stay until July. That's why I'm so worried about this Lyles experiment/depth; at least a guy like Nova or Santana can definitely give you some innings. Even with a good bullpen, I don't think you want a wildly varying situation in the #5 spot, with one inning of 7 IP dominance, and then another flameout in the second or third inning.

We'll see. I think it basically comes down to three tiers: how bonafide will Taillon and Archer be as potential staff aces? Will they be imposing, or merely just adequate enough for the job? I think Taillon really will, and I have no idea about Archer. Below them, what do you get from Williams and Musgrove, two pitchers who are of a Pirates style to the letter? I am pretty high on both of them, and I think they'll provide a lot of dependability. And then finally, what do you get from the fifth spot? Can Lyles hack it, or will we be praying for Keller ASAP?

I said this before, but I am open to the idea that we should leave space for Keller to claim a spot. However, depth often comes back to bite us at pitching. I think we should be investing at least another 10-12 million into grabbing Gio and Tony Sipp, which by extension should make the bullpen even more sharp. We need the pitching overall to be the weapon that keeps winning us games, and I think it already is that right now, but with less guarantees/depth/stability than I'd like.
 

pistolpete11

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I agree, I think pitching is going to dictate a lot, which does echo back to previous years of success, where we made very modest offensive additions like Byrd. The only thing with in season addition is that a lot of the roster spots seem currently tied up in platoons of varying degrees of mediocrity. Honestly, I think the biggest internal improvement could be Newman really surprising, Tucker making a burst onto the scene earlier, or Kang really returning to his old form.

There are still some possibilities for deadline improvement, but they are harder to see. Still, I think a solid pitching staff is going to determine whether we feast or famine, and basically how relevant we stay until July. That's why I'm so worried about this Lyles experiment/depth; at least a guy like Nova or Santana can definitely give you some innings. Even with a good bullpen, I don't think you want a wildly varying situation in the #5 spot, with one inning of 7 IP dominance, and then another flameout in the second or third inning.

We'll see. I think it basically comes down to three tiers: how bonafide will Taillon and Archer be as potential staff aces? Will they be imposing, or merely just adequate enough for the job? I think Taillon really will, and I have no idea about Archer. Below them, what do you get from Williams and Musgrove, two pitchers who are of a Pirates style to the letter? I am pretty high on both of them, and I think they'll provide a lot of dependability. And then finally, what do you get from the fifth spot? Can Lyles hack it, or will we be praying for Keller ASAP?

I said this before, but I am open to the idea that we should leave space for Keller to claim a spot. However, depth often comes back to bite us at pitching. I think we should be investing at least another 10-12 million into grabbing Gio and Tony Sipp, which by extension should make the bullpen even more sharp. We need the pitching overall to be the weapon that keeps winning us games, and I think it already is that right now, but with less guarantees/depth/stability than I'd like.
As the old adage goes, you can never have too much pitching. I want Keller stepping in because either a) he's killing it in AAA and they just have to make room for him or b) injuries. I don't want to have to put him in because a reclamation project didn't work out.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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This might constitute a moderate hot take, but I'll say that relative to what you get out of a #5 starter, Lyles probably isn't going to be that bad. We have no idea what this means in terms of reclamation, but even just glancing at some of the bad Coors Field numbers, if you get 1.2 WAR out of him, that's not the end of the world as a fifth starter.

That said, it just seems so obvious that we could make a further investment in Gio, or even less so, in Santana, and have some more security as well as upside. Santana is a year removed from a pretty solid 3 WAR pace. He's still something of a reclamation and unknown with his age/injury, but it seems like the upshot with Lyles is hoping we get 1.8-2.0 WAR, i.e., the kind of performances we got from Nova prior to last season. But we're risking at least the dependability of Nova's innings to do it. We lose Taillon or Archer to an extended injury and we're in obvious trouble no matter what happens, but all that has to happen is Williams or Musgrove to go down for a month or so and pitching all of a sudden becomes a liability for that time period - which sinks any chance of clawing around the top of the division.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but Lyles and Liriano both showed signs of excellence in the bullpen in specific roles, and couple be weaponized on top of an already formidable group, while also being emergency starters in the event of an injury. And all we need to do is spend a small amount of money on a veteran pitcher who is probably desperate for a shot (though in fairness, the rumor I saw is that Gio wants 4 years, which is absolutely dumb).
 

DJ Spinoza

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Here's the first of internal puff pieces on Newman (although no disrespect to Adam Berry, who writes it well and is generally great IMO): Kevin Newman hopes to crack Pirates' lineup

It is interesting to hear that he was not in the best physical shape, whereas now of course he's in the best shape of his life... he did look smaller and weaker than I expected last year. To me, the key thing for him is if he's going to be able to maintain both the hit tool and the speed, as well as if he can field the position well enough. None of those things seemed like they would happen last year, but I'm also about 95% willing to entirely throw out his debut given when it was in the season. The same basically goes for Pablo Reyes, who I like.

Longer term, the tools he potentially has could shift over to 2B, so I do think it's sort of a good idea to have him playing under a spotlight in 2019, because that could be a valuable option in 2020 (with Dickerson gone, Frazier moving mostly to LF, and Newman at 2B when Tucker is ready). To be really viable as a starter, I think he's going to need to at least have pretty great speed and steal some bases. Otherwise, he seems more like a depth option than even someone who could play a bench role, but maybe his defense is better than I'm giving him credit for.

In any case, I'm in the acceptance stage of this foolish SS platoon. I think what we should have done is just acquired a veteran to have Newman play alongside, and not worried about this Gonzalez experiment on top of things. It muddies the water too much - there's enough to experiment with for Newman, and potentially Kramer as well, who Gonzalez would seem to crowd out if there's an injury to Kang/Moran. I also worry that Gonzalez has great 3B defense, but not impactful enough defense. He just seems like a cheap emergency option, and there were so many decent enough proven MLB options that I don't know if I buy the party line.

Returning to Newman, if he's able to be a stolen base threat, that might be a key to unlocking some things on the Pirates offense. Obviously, going from deliberating over whether he's MLB material to penciling him near the top of the order is a big leap, but speed is generally down across baseball, and so having two guys who can steal a good number of bases could set us apart a bit. We have to even see who wins the job, but starting out, I suppose we could see Newman at #8, which could give him the occasional chance to steal a base with a couple outs and the leadoff hitter up anyways. And if he can hit fairly well, we have a conversation about moving him further up, but that's far down the line and involving lots of ifs (the thought in the back of my mind is Newman and Marte as SB options 1-2, with Frazier once again showing elite hitting in the three spot).
 

pistolpete11

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This might constitute a moderate hot take, but I'll say that relative to what you get out of a #5 starter, Lyles probably isn't going to be that bad. We have no idea what this means in terms of reclamation, but even just glancing at some of the bad Coors Field numbers, if you get 1.2 WAR out of him, that's not the end of the world as a fifth starter.
The problem I have is there are too many of these 'Well, it would cost X amount to only get 1-2 more WAR out of the position, so we're just going to go with the guys we have" already. #5 spot is up for grabs. SS is a complete question mark. We're hoping a guy that hasn't played in essentially 2 years is the answer at 3B. A first time starter at 2B. A guy with only 84 ABs last year as the starting RF for a few months and then a guy coming off major shoulder surgery.

All of these individually aren't the end of the world, but they start adding up at some point.

I'm not suggesting to spend money just to spend money, but as you've mentioned, there are starters out there that could be had to fill out the rotation. There are (or at least were) a couple of stop gap SS out there, not to mention Machado. More OF options than guys that could only get minor league deals. There's just more they could do and not doing it is unacceptable IMO. They still have some time. I mean they got Dickerson pretty late last year, but I also don't have a ton of faith they are going to even try.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I agree absolutely, which is why I've circled back around to Marwin Gonzalez so many times this winter. I think we can sort of split the overall offensive situation facing us into two halves: depth/stopgap for Polanco, and then the infield situation.

At first glance, Chisenhall could be just fine if he stays healthy, but it becomes a lot dicier if you think Polanco will be out longer than they are suggesting, not to mention if Polanco is totally out of sorts when he's back.

This compounds an even worse situation in the infield, where we have jettisoned expensive, underperforming veterans and replaced them with nothing, outside of perhaps Frazier. To be clear, I have converted to being a fervent believer in Frazier, but it's fair to question it at least a bit. But to me, the other spots in the infield are equally questionable: SS is the most flagrant, but you have the basic questions about Moran and Bell, and presumably a lot of reliance on Kang off the bench or playing a lot (so much so that we jettisoned a very useful David Freese, who lets not forget was one of the most important offensive cogs even if he didn't always play every day).

I also don't think they are going to try to do more. I do actually like the Cabrera deal, even though he's nothing special at this point, because he gives a nice failsafe if Chisenhall doesn't work out and/or if there are more injuries. But Gonzalez seems like he could be the ultimate sort of failsafe, given his flexibility, and although there's a chance he only wants to go to certain teams or something, it isn't going to break the bank to get him here.

I think the "optimistic" read on the situation is that Huntington thinks he can sort of replay the 2013-2015 sequence and maybe change some things this time, but that sounds pretty f***ing dumb to me. For starters, he really doesn't have the pieces to aggressively make trades, and while we could see what we have in some guys like Newman and so forth, and then spend next winter or after, we'll have higher arbitration payments to start "worrying" about, and I'm sure it will never happen. So the "pessimistic" read on the situation is that Huntington thinks he can sort of replay the 2013-2015 sequence and get luckier this time. Ultimately getting to the playoffs and getting a fighting chance within it rests heavily on luck, but at some point you make your own luck.
 
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WickedWrister

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I'd love Marwin Gonzalez. I think he literally played like 6 positions last year, so flexible.

Regarding Newman, his career high in stolen bases last year was 28 in ~100 games. That's pretty good, although I don't know what his percentage was
 

td_ice

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BRADENTON, Fla. (AP) — Garth Brooks has come out of baseball retirement.
The country music legend will spend just over a week participating in spring training with the Pittsburgh Pirates, reporting Monday with the pitchers and catchers.
 
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