OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

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ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
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We should sign Manny. Make up for not drafting him in the first place!

I bet if our payroll was only 50m right now we still wouldn't try.

I wish I would have won that billion dollar mega millions thing a few months back. I'd have walked right into HQ and said take this Nutting. Get out.
 

DJ Spinoza

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From what I have gleaned on Pirates twitter, there are some who are genuinely deluding themselves into thinking it could be possible. I have tried to convince myself that we could do some mega, somewhat front-loaded contract with a few opt outs after a couple years, and I just can't do it, but more power to these optimists.

I guess there is potentially some vagueness around what his actual market is, but I imagine that the Phillies are going to be the ones to get him. They seem slightly more focused on a starting pitcher, but they have the money to do both.
 
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TNT87

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Ty Cobb, I mean Billy Hamilton has signed with the Royals. Thank goodness.
 

cheesedanish87

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I just saw that Harold Baines made the HOF, i can't believe that.

When you watch or listen to these shows from the winter meetings they never say anything about the Pirates.

It just makes it seem like the Pirates are so irrelevant.
 

Empoleon8771

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On one hand, a .230 hitter at SS would suck. On the other hand, he hit 16 homeruns last year and won a gold glove, so that's an upgrade over Mercer.

Edit: in the DK article:

The rebuilding Diamondbacks are looking for prospects. However, their asking price is low enough that the Pirates would not have to relinquish either one of their top two prospects, right-hander Mitch Keller and third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes.

The Pirates have been linked to a number of free agent shortstops, including Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, Alcides Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria.

I think it's safe to say that they'll come out of the winter meetings with an upgrade at SS, which is good to see.
 
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Brandinho

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Ahmed would be a good stop gap if the price isn't outrageous. His defense is legit and his home/road splits are virtually identical with a bit more power on the road. My only real concern is that he's a righty who appears to be quite pull happy when you look at his spray chart. A few of those homers are probably doubles in PNC given that our left center is about 10 feet deeper than Arizona's.
 

WheresRamziAbid

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Ahmed would be a good stop gap if the price isn't outrageous. His defense is legit and his home/road splits are virtually identical with a bit more power on the road. My only real concern is that he's a righty who appears to be quite pull happy when you look at his spray chart. A few of those homers are probably doubles in PNC given that our left center is about 10 feet deeper than Arizona's.

He might pick up a few back if he's really pull heavy and hugs the line. Dunno
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, I share the concern about Ahmed's power, but I think he'd be a really nice pickup. His defense is elite, and if he continues an upswing offensively, he'd be a nice stopgap. The kind of player who would step in and improve the current situation, maybe with some upside, and a contract that isn't going to be as inhibiting in terms of being the defensive backup if something happens and Newman/Tucker has a surge to claim the spot.

In a sense, spending some money on Iglesias would be roughly the same thing, but at least there's some power potential with Ahmed. I'd rather have Iglesias than gamble on Gonzalez, but there's a general argument to be made that the contract he would get isn't really an ideal use of limited resources (obviously, our resources shouldn't be so limited, but the situation being what it is, we have to think this way). I'd much rather see the right trade made for a controllable Ahmed, and then hopefully an additional couple of moves. The rumors of what the Yankees want for Gray are absolutely absurd (and in a sense, make the Archer trade look significantly better in terms of the control and baseline performance/talent), but if they come back to reality, the dream for me would be swapping in his upside for Nova, and using the salary difference + whatever else is left to get Marwin. That's at least a team on paper with more of a fighting chance.

However, even if we got Ahmed in a nice package, I'm fully resigned to the fact that we will need something fairly improbable, such as a huge performance out of Kang/Moran, in order to be pretty competitive this year. More teams being generally more competitive is probably better for having a fighting chance, but only if we can get the right kind of improvements. Banking on internal improvements isn't going to be enough.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I can't find it offhand, but the best recent example I can think of regarding GM-speak is NH saying that he feels good about Luplow as a fill-in for Polanco and then shipping him off a few weeks later.

I really like the Ahmed idea, and it shouldn't be too hard to find a fit with a potential player like Kingham or Martin or somebody. Maybe he'd have a slightly decent market, but I can't imagine he'd been too in demand, and a controllable backend pitcher isn't the worst pivot for continuing what seems like it will have to be more or less a rebuild.

It's after this move that I'm more pessimistic. I know there's speculation around this, but I'd be pretty surprised to go into camp with just Newman and Gonzalez as the SS options. But beyond that, there are a bunch of teams who are in on Gray, and I just can't see us paying for an additional bat. Maybe there's more potential on an incentive-driven contract for a moderate reclamation SP like Fiers, but in that case I think I'd just as soon roll with Nova and hope Keller can make a push by mid-season.

I'm still holding out some irrational hope for Dozier, but I think a trade for Ahmed and maybe a guy like Diekman are about the highest we can hope for. Ahmed and Dozier as the infield options, with whoever can fight for utility positions behind them, would be some nice upside, with Frazier as a super utility that plays often enough. Add in Chisenhall eventually on the bench, and if you get reasonable production from the corner spots, the offense could be a bit above average. At least enough to make a difference if the pitching can be a big strength.
 
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cheesedanish87

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I don't have a problem with Ahmed, but i'd prefer signing somebody like Iglesias and keeping the prospects that it would take to get Ahmed.

I don't know enough about Arizona, do they have somebody to replace Ahmed if they trade him?
 

DJ Spinoza

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They have Ketel Marte who is younger and has better upside, though I'm not sure to what extent he plays SS because I don't want them other than when we play us. But they may want to get him some extended looks at SS. One of their better prospects is an SS who is still pretty far away. I'd imagine from their perspective that they might want to just sell as high as they can on Owens, since he might maintain value as an elite defender, but right now he had a bit of an offensive breakout with some decent underlying numbers, so there might be no better time to deal him.

I am all for it on the assumption that it won't take much of significance. Kingham or Martin, or even Newman or Kramer, are solid young depth pieces to have around, but if we can use one of them, or one and a lottery ticket prospect (excluding Cruz) for a moderate upgrade with some years of control and maybe untapped offensive upside, then I think it's not much risk.

It sounds like there are some bigger rumors starting to rumble, especially around the Mets and Realmuto, including a situation where Thor would go to the Yankees. They seem unlikely at this point, but maybe there's more room for a big Mets splash than they are letting on. Apparently the Marlins are still asking for the moon for Realmuto, i.e. they asked for Bellinger+ from LA. That makes sense from their perspective, since they basically have the market cornered. However, I don't get why the Mets wouldn't just pony up the money to sign Grandal.

Maybe NH can still sneak in with something creative, but it's hard to see a solution. They obviously want the upgrade at C, but Cervelli for just one year doesn't do a whole lot, especially when you add in his injury risk. Perhaps Cervelli with some marquee, closer to ready prospects (I'd imagine Keller and Hayes, maybe Keller and Tucker if we're luckier), but hard to see that being the top package. But maybe if Grandal signs elsewhere, and the Marlins remain stubborn or some other team ponies up a huge amount, there's room for a bigger play there.

All told, I like Ahmed as at least a genuine upgrade, with either a bigger move for pitching potential, or at least a small investment in a bat with some pop. It might not be too sexy on paper, but at least something like Ahmed + Dozier + Diekman or Loup has the potential to address some problems, and position us to hopefully be more consistent with the potential of having some impact contributions close to ready from some farm players ready to graduate. I prefer mortgaging them for a super rotation, but that kind of moderate aggressiveness is at least a play. I don't buy wholesale into the pursuit of Ahmed (Perrotto's reputation isn't amazing on this front), but I will be pretty surprised if the main SS options in camp are Newman and Gonzalez.
 
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cheesedanish87

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I have a hard time seeing the Mets and Yanks making any kind of a big trade.

Those franchises don't get along, i would think the last thing the Mets would want to do is give them Thor to help the Yanks win the world series.
 

Winger for Hire

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I don't get the Ahmed love. His best year, 2018, is basically 2017 Jordy Mercer with a good glove.

16 homers but only slugged .411

Never broke .300 OBP even in limited playing time. His slash was .234/.290/.411 last year in his first season with 500+ ABs.

BP's shiney new toy (Deserved Runs Created +) has him with a DRC+ of 88 in his career and 94 last season. (DRC+ is a really fun new stat they just rolled out. Check it out, it was designed to be predictive and descriptive and take into account ballpark factors AND pitchers faced and those pitcher's tendencies and quality)

You're pretty much looking at a Clint Barmes clone with the bat and probably a hair under that with the glove.

ETA- While I agree he's probably an upgrade over what they currently have on the depth chart, he's not really an upgrade I would spend assets to acquire. Even if that asset is only Nick Kingham.
 
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Winger for Hire

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Did he fall off that much? Because I know I wouldn’t mind him here unless he really really fell off

Yeah, he took a nose dive off a cliff about 2 1/2 years ago. Last year he couldn't beat out an empty 1B depth chart for the Mets. I think there was a back injury or something a couple years ago that really hampered him, but the really weird thing was that his batting eye and bat skills really left him. He might be a minor league contract, camp invite kind of guy and hope for found money, but he's not a guy to sign and expect him to give you MLB value currently.
 

TimmyD

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Yeah, he took a nose dive off a cliff about 2 1/2 years ago. Last year he couldn't beat out an empty 1B depth chart for the Mets. I think there was a back injury or something a couple years ago that really hampered him, but the really weird thing was that his batting eye and bat skills really left him. He might be a minor league contract, camp invite kind of guy and hope for found money, but he's not a guy to sign and expect him to give you MLB value currently.

That’s a shame because I would love him here as a power bat. Then again I guess if he was still that guy he would be out of the Pirates budget
 

WheresRamziAbid

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I don't get the Ahmed love. His best year, 2018, is basically 2017 Jordy Mercer with a good glove.

16 homers but only slugged .411

Never broke .300 OBP even in limited playing time. His slash was .234/.290/.411 last year in his first season with 500+ ABs.

BP's shiney new toy (Deserved Runs Created +) has him with a DRC+ of 88 in his career and 94 last season. (DRC+ is a really fun new stat they just rolled out. Check it out, it was designed to be predictive and descriptive and take into account ballpark factors AND pitchers faced and those pitcher's tendencies and quality)

You're pretty much looking at a Clint Barmes clone with the bat and probably a hair under that with the glove.

ETA- While I agree he's probably an upgrade over what they currently have on the depth chart, he's not really an upgrade I would spend assets to acquire. Even if that asset is only Nick Kingham.


I think you underselling Ahmed a bit. I dont know how accurate DRs is but Ahmed was better than Mercer by 30 runs. 30! Thats wlite defense.

His wRC+ was the same and that DRC+ is an indication he has even more in the bat.
 
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