OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

[DJ Spinoza]

That's fair, I think there's projection there but it's more average power and not really pop. The main reason I like it is not being fully sold on the prep guys and not liking a catcher, but Mayer looks like he could be really coming on. I'm back to where I was for most of this amateur season, namely wanting to see Rocker and Leiter shove and make it a hard call between them. I think he's a reach at 1.1 but for me there are enough question marks in some of the other guys that once you start pivoting to underslot ideas, I'll glady take a guy with the upside of 40 doubles, 8-12 HRs, and good defense/speed.

I didn't include this in what I said above, but on the FanGraphs stream, Longenhagen basically seems to think that neither are quite as good as Meyer or Lacy (though not a great comparison since they've had at least some advance over bing college players), and would put Leiter with Hancock.

Goldstein said some Rocker showings would have him as a top-20 prospect whereas others would be more in the latter 1/5th of the list. At the end of the day, even if you do the nitpicking and take a more skeptical view of both, they have FOR/ace upside. No matter what argument I try to entertain or follow about other players, I can't get past the notion that it's really just preferences and other factors, and not significant gaps in talent. Maybe Mayer makes some more noise or something, or Davis really goes crazy to end the season, but given all the contextual factors of our pick, it's still a bit too much overthinkng to really overlook both of the Vandy pitchers.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Yajure is ridiculously good

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I really do not get taking him out so early. I imagine it could be a pitch count thing but we let him throw 80 pitches or something in the snow in Detroit. Whatever the story is, I've been willing to accept that he could see some weeks in AAA just to get his feet under him, but he belongs in the ML rotation.

This offense is just excruciating to watch. So many important spots all game where all we could do was whiff. No point in expecting much more given the current personel I guess. At least some good showings for prospects tonight - Burrows, Smith-Njigba, Gonzales, Siani among others.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Rocker was better tonight but not dominant. Only real blemishes over 7 innings were a pair of home runs given up. 5 hits, 3 ER over 7 IP. 8 K's to only 1 walk which is nice to see. Vandy got shut down losing 3-1. 67 of 99 for strikes shows he was pretty strong with location and that's a solid pitch count for a full 7. Still, don't like seeing multiple dingers given up though the outing qualifies as a quality start certainly and Kumar rarely gets tagged for home runs. Should be full highlights up tomorrow on YT.

Hopefully we start seeing these 2 guys get back to stringing a few dominant showings together. Leiter has had an extra week of rest so I'm hoping he can regain the earlier season brilliance.

Rough night for Cruz but Smith-Njigba continues to dominate w/ a homer and double + 4 RBI's.

TWO more doubles for Gonzo (2-4, average at .382 w/ 1.168 OPS).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Frazier continues to rake at least. Rich Rod, for as much shit as he's shown in the past has been fantastic this year. Get him on the block asap. Those 2 should be making the rounds in trade talks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Lol did the Giants really start whining about Polanco passing up Craig in the base path after he had already flied out?

Yajure looked great tonight as well, he gives me Joe Musgrove vibes in term of his upside IMO.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Hey props for Polanco putting the ball deep enough for Frazier to score! Frazier is just dialed in baby. The contenders have to be salivating at the though of adding an all around player like AF. You can play him all over the place, so he'll find a way into the lineup most nights. Great glove. Good IQ. I'm hoping there is a bidding war soon.

Still, nice comeback win even if we should be losing games for draft position!

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Thanks for the Rocker report IE -- solid line, agree about the dingers, but at least no other red flags like walks or a bunch of hits or anything like that. From what I could tell by watching twitter, it seemed like it took him a couple of innings to really dial his stuff in, which is the opposite of what you might expect if he was really tired (all the bad stuff was very early). So, another strong point in his favor.

Besides Gonzales and Smith-Njigba, another guy to highlight for Greensboro is Michael Burrows, who put up 4 scoreless with a bunch of Ks. He's a guy who may profile more as a dominant reliever - there were some good training videos and reports on him over the winter. Since he has to be added to the 40 man this winter, I hope we'll be aggressive in promoting him.

Final prospect of note tonight is Sammy Siani, 2-5 with a double and HR, as well as a stolen base (Bradenton). And, not really lighting the world on fire, but Swaggerty is 1-4 with a walk, and the hit came against a lefty. Good to see the hit after a couple 0- games. One good sign is that he's walking at a very healthy clip, so I'm optimistic in general even if I think it's a little much to expect him to get a run in MLB before August or probably September.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Btw



The EV on the HR was 110mph. This is the kind of stuff that would make me not be as kneejerk opposed to catcher, though I'm still firmly Leiter-Rocker and looking forward to the former tomorrow.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Btw



The EV on the HR was 110mph. This is the kind of stuff that would make me not be as kneejerk opposed to catcher, though I'm still firmly Leiter-Rocker and looking forward to the former tomorrow.

If you buy the plus offensive profile and plus plus arm, he really only needs to be average receiving wise to be an impact 2 way C and everything out there today says he's made big strides in that area. Apparently has a great rep as a leader/work ethic, which is another reason I loved the Gonzo pick last year. Work ethic is a very underrated trait for a youngster. I guess he's quickly becoming my alternative to the Vandy P's but I'm not off that train, or even close to it yet. Not until I see the wheels come off both or continued inability to dominate.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's kind of where I'm at, in the sense of preferring him to the prep route, especially if the prep route is part of an underslot strategy. I like Frelick just as much as an advanced college hitter, but there's no question we could use more pop and if you do hit on an impact catcher, that's a pretty big deal. I like Endy Rodriguez a lot so far, but the depth is still thin, and most MLB teams have effectively tandems, plus Rodriguez is athletic enough that he may be able to play multiple positions if he keeps hitting.



It's still the Vandy pitchers for me, but I realize there is risk there in a few ways. You can never predict this one, but I don't think either of them has injury concerns. I'm a little bit skeptical of the underslot strategy in general, especially this year where there's at least some chance a team may do goofy stuff and break the rules. There are intriguing names who could be there, but it's also plenty intriguing to take the guy who you think is the best player at 1.1 and then go for more impact talent in the comp round and round 2.

 

[Gallatin]

RHP Braxton Ashcraft (51st overall - 2018) is one of the many high-upside/high-variance pitching prospects currently developing in A-ball and the Rookie Leagues. Tall and raw with - a lot of projection still - but the kid has top of the rotation potential IMO.

Ashcraft's K/BB is 3.50, BABIP is .133, with an RS/9 way up at 7.71. Heavily overshadowed by the many top Pirate prospects on this team-you-can't-stream, Braxton appears to be off to an impressive start in the media singularity that is the Greensboro Grasshoppers....

Braxton Ashcraft Stats, Fantasy & News

 

[ImporterExporter]

Leiter rebounds with a strong start.

Saw some punchouts on Twitter. Fastball looks great.

3 walks 2 wild pitches, 2 hit batters are the blemishes through 6 innings. 13 K's w/ only 2 hits and 1 ER given up. 56 of 91 for strikes which is solid.

Will be interested to see the highlights. He's still not that tight with the command but damn does he miss bats. It's incredibly impressive as I thought Rocker wouldn't get touched in that regard.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Lol did the Giants really start whining about Polanco passing up Craig in the base path after he had already flied out?

Yajure looked great tonight as well, he gives me Joe Musgrove vibes in term of his upside IMO.

If Musgrove looked this put together at 22 he'd probably be a multi-Cy Young winner

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I caught the last inning. His command wasn't quite as sharp as it had been, starting out with a full count and then walk. He then gave up a generously scored hit that was more of a fly ball to LF that the fielder got a bad break on. Then a walk, but he dialed it in for a K, infield popup, and another K but on a breaking pitch that went for a wild pitch. For a lot of the Ks and whiffs I saw, he was just blowing the fastball by guys, but to this guy, he was working the breaking stuff. Then he finished it with another K including a good slider for a strike – that's one of the things he was trying to do earlier in the inning but couldn't quite dial it in, just missing a hair out of the upper corner of the zone.

All in all a very impressive start, enough to definitely think he's back. My thinking is still basically that he's a guy with an elite fastball who will keep getting better with the breaking stuff, so it's the no brainer for me, despite all the mental gymnastics I've tried to do for other non-Rocker options. I'm glad he and Rocker re-established themselves this weekend with strong starts vs a good team.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I caught the last inning. His command wasn't quite as sharp as it had been, starting out with a full count and then walk. He then gave up a generously scored hit that was more of a fly ball to LF that the fielder got a bad break on. Then a walk, but he dialed it in for a K, infield popup, and another K but on a breaking pitch that went for a wild pitch. For a lot of the Ks and whiffs I saw, he was just blowing the fastball by guys, but to this guy, he was working the breaking stuff. Then he finished it with another K including a good slider for a strike – that's one of the things he was trying to do earlier in the inning but couldn't quite dial it in, just missing a hair out of the upper corner of the zone.

All in all a very impressive start, enough to definitely think he's back. My thinking is still basically that he's a guy with an elite fastball who will keep getting better with the breaking stuff, so it's the no brainer for me, despite all the mental gymnastics I've tried to do for other non-Rocker options. I'm glad he and Rocker re-established themselves this weekend with strong starts vs a good team.

The only real question mark/issue I have with Leiter, beyond hi size, is his command has not really impressed me. I mean it's not horrendous, but you're talking about 4+ walks per 9 and it'll tick up after today. He's also got 7 hit batters. His K/BB ratio is inferior to Rocker and I'm pretty big on command for elite pitching prospect. I'm not overly worried on him having secondary pitches that will play well, but you better be sold on his ability to improve his location and consistency in hitting his spots. The best arsenal in the world isn't worth much if you carry these sort of walk totals to the higher levels. We see it with Keller, we saw it with Glasnow (in Pittsburgh), etc. Not that I think Keller's arsenal is all that special, but his biggest issue is consistency and lack of ability to deliver where the catcher sets up.

I'm not trying to diminish Leiter, as he's worthy of 1.1 in my book but Rocker has really answered any questions I had in regards to command, striking out 13 batters/9, while walking 2.8/9.

The CWS is going to really sell me on Leiter over Rocker if he can dominate there. I/we know Rocker can pitch in the toughest spots. You don't win MVP of the playoffs by not being very good. Can Leiter? That's where he could sell me.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think that's a fair point. For me, it's an eye test thing in that I don't think Leiter will have much trouble refining it, and the breaking stuff works so perfectly off it, that I just don't think it's going to be a big problem. I need to see the CWS performance and final start next weekend (? I guess there will be an SEC tourney too?) to be fully on board, but for now I'm just too in love with the fastball.

I don't want to get into a whole thing with Keller but his issues seem to step in part from being a command/low zone guy in the minors and then trying to reinvent to work wth four-seamers at the top of the zone. Still, you don't want to see the walk rate that high, and for instance it would have been nice to see him just sail through the 6th inning tonight. In the majors, more often than not, two walks will lead to a big inning.

On the farm, Bradenton threw a combined no hitter with Brennan Malone making a brief 1 IP appearance as part of it for his debut. Omar Cruz had a fantastic 10 K, no hit start for Greensboro.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I think that's a fair point. For me, it's an eye test thing in that I don't think Leiter will have much trouble refining it, and the breaking stuff works so perfectly off it, that I just don't think it's going to be a big problem. I need to see the CWS performance and final start next weekend (? I guess there will be an SEC tourney too?) to be fully on board, but for now I'm just too in love with the fastball.

I don't want to get into a whole thing with Keller but his issues seem to step in part from being a command/low zone guy in the minors and then trying to reinvent to work wth four-seamers at the top of the zone. Still, you don't want to see the walk rate that high, and for instance it would have been nice to see him just sail through the 6th inning tonight. In the majors, more often than not, two walks will lead to a big inning.

On the farm, Bradenton threw a combined no hitter with Brennan Malone making a brief 1 IP appearance as part of it for his debut. Omar Cruz had a fantastic 10 K, no hit start for Greensboro.

Nice to see Cruz rebound after a horrendous 1st start.

Mason Martin 2-4 tonight, up to .306/.946 on the year. Altoona is absolutely stacked.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That bat drop by Stallings was satisfying.

This also confirmed to me that the Pirates play by play guys are awful. Hardly any emotion on that walk off

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Dang, Stallings really hit them with the Reggie pimpjob on a walkoff. Certified badass material.

And the oldtimers try to tell you nobody used to flip the bat.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Obviously no replacement for watching the game or a broader set of highlights, but still...



I like how the breaking stuff alternates between being a total chase pitch and also in and around the edges of the zone. When you have to defend for that as well as the overpowering fastball which sets it all up, it makes everything work so well together. If you think he can develop the changeup he barely shows once he becomes a pro, which I think is a good bet, then it's going to be a truly lethal package.

Either way, the big question remains how both of them finish out their final appearances of the year, but this weekend has definitively put some window between Leiter and Rocker and anyone else for me, much as I like the advanced college bat of Davis or Frelick along with the power and speed tool respectively. I did see that Lawlar finished his season on a complete tear, but for me the lack of a true standout tool is a big red flag at 1.1.

Another way I'd look at the pick is by investing in athleticism and tools. Maybe Lawlar is a guy who keeps getting better or develops a standout tool, but at the top, you can decide between Leiter's FB, Rocker's SL, Mayer's defense+frame, Davis' power+makeup, etc., and I think regardless of the decision about true BPA or hedge BPA+underslot (a fair dilemma if you have them all graded similarly), you should still default towards something that jumps out.

 

[Gallatin]

Another high-upside high-variance arm lost-in-Greensboro is Michael Burrows (324th overall - 2018). Burrows impressed early, and got skipped over Bristol for a second season directly to West Virginia where he did okayish against older hitters.

He's another Pirate prospect off to a ridiculous hot start - 8ip 0er 15k 1bb 1h through 2 games. Sometimes referred to as a "spin rate monster" - Burrows had the highest spin rate in the organization last year, oproaching 2600 on the fastball...

Rum Bunter Radio: Get to Know Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Michael Burrows

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Stockwatch: Michael Burrows

Video: Alex Stumpf, Jarrod Prugar interview Michael Burrows for On Deck

Pittsburgh Pirates Minors: 2021 an Important Season for Michael Burrows

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Burrows is definitely emerging as one of my favorite "tier 2" or whatever guys in the system, i.e. outside the top-10 (just riffing, no judgment on potential, just guys who are not spotlighted as top 10 etc). Short list I think I'd put him with personally are JC Flowers, Endy Rodriguez, and Jasiah Dixon. Limiting this to single A -- it's hard to find too many other guys on Greensboro besides Burrows and Ashcraft who might be under the radar a bit. I guess the OF there could be included in this, with some guys who were college picks in 2019 and really haven't played at all yet.

I saw a stat that Burrows' CSW (called strikes+whiff) is 52.2%, though he's thrown just shy of 50 pitches so that number will certainly come down. That's beyond an elite number, though, obviously speaking to just how dominant he's been so far.

He's a really interesting guy in that he's been lauded since being drafted as a "spin rate monster", and now his velo has seemingly ticked up. There were some nasty videos of him in a training facility this winter but I can't find them now. Longenhagen's writeup says violent delivery and not an especially deep pitch mix, so maybe projected for relief, but obviously he's still barely thrown. I think you have to let it play out, but also in today's MLB, I don't think there's too much that's negative about developing a reliever. In fact, I'm somewhat surprised that teams haven't yet taken to essentially punting on someone being a starter for the sake of them being a multi-inning shutdown reliever, given how teams are increasingly set up. I guess a possible exception to that is Garret Crochet, though the White Sox say they want him to start eventually.

In any case, too early to wonder about that with him, but he's rule 5 eligible after this year, and so I wonder if you take the chance on ticking him up another level midseason to get a look as a multi-inning guy going forward. This is probably a bit too freewheeling but my gut sense is that developing a multi-inning reliever "back" into a starter is something that is easier than if you make them a true late inning, high leverage guy.

Greensboro's rotation is just stacked, though: Priester, Thomas, Mlodzinski, Burrows, and Ashcraft. Truly a shame that they don't have a TV broadcast because they are the one team worth tuning into every night. Altoona is to some extent, but their pitching isn't as exciting.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Is peguero hurt. He doesnt seem to have been playing recently

 

[DJ Spinoza]

He banged up his knee earlier in the week, and I think played one game but otherwise has been out. I don't think it's serious, probably just overly cautious since it's early in the season.