OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

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Cruz just smoked a ball into deep CF but guy made the catch. Was about a 11-12 pitch AB. Fouled off 5 straight on 3-2. No hits but the last 2 ABS were nice strokes.

Edit. Cruz just booted a ball. Then they pick him off at 1B!

Another quick inning that ends with a K for Roansy. Curve ball called 3rs strike. Unreal pitch. Buckled hitter.

 

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Martin just destroyed the ball out of the stadium. Over the RF wall. Against reliever, right hander Ryan Tapani.

I mean it was CRUSHED.

 

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Contreras starts off 7th with 96 mph fastball upstairs, blowing it by another guy.

80 mph change up strike 3 on next guy. Swing and miss. He's been locating the curve/change better the last few innings. Looks very legit from up behind the Curve dugout.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Sounds like Swaggerty might have hurt his hand pretty badly tonight for Indy. Not shocking news as the Cardinals dink and dunk their way into lucky bullshit hits.

At least it sounds like Contreras really impressed, and Priester has had a solid clean outing so far for Greensboro. Hope there's video of the Martin HR.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Brubaker both got singled to death in this one and made some bad mistake pitches, but if he's able to still navigate through 6 at "only" 5-0, that's stll some good general sign about his ability to be a mid-rotation guy. Eat the innings, the Ws are pointless anyways.

Neithere here nor there but a guy I am a little bit intrigued with is Matthew Frazier at Greensboro. He's stepped into the leadoff role in Peguero's absence and seemed to perform, also stealing a couple of bags. College guy who was taken in 2019. In general the 2019 class seems kind of unknown due to the wiped out season. Gorski, Siani, and Triolo are others worth keeping an eye on, as is Jasiah Davis who has 10/10 steals already and I think was featurd in BA. And JC Flowers, looking like someone who could be developed as a leverage relief arm.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Sounds like Swaggerty might have hurt his hand pretty badly tonight for Indy. Not shocking news as the Cardinals dink and dunk their way into lucky bullshit hits.

At least it sounds like Contreras really impressed, and Priester has had a solid clean outing so far for Greensboro. Hope there's video of the Martin HR.

Pretty sure it landed in the Susquehanna River lol. But seriously, from my vantage point, it would have been way up in the seats in PNC, maybe even out of the whole place. It was nuked.

Against the lefty he looked a bit lost. Off speed stuff had him out in front a few times but then had a beautiful AB there late and put a perfect swing on it.

Cruz could have easily has a pair of hits. Did have 1 error but otherwise looked smoother than I expected at short.

I had to leave after the 7th but Contreras really impressed me. His FB lives low in the zone mostly and it's got a lot of life. Hard to tell about the spin being on the 3rd base side but it sure as hell gets on hitters quickly and he maintained the velo through the 7th. His breaking stuff definitely had great tilt and bite. Just lacked some consistency in locating through about the 4th, though he did get a few Ks on it and seemed to dial it in more as the game went along.

Nice delivery. It's not violent and he gives me more hope as a smaller starter, if we go the Leiter route.

 

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Contreras final line:

6.2 IP
2 hits
1 walk
0 runs
6 K's

Through 3 starts he's at:

17.2
7 hits
3 walks
0 runs
28 K's

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It seems like one of the questions for Contreras is separating between the curve and slider some. When I've seen him, as best as I can tell the pitch can sometimes look like either. I'm not 100% sure that's a bad thing, since there is a lot of talk about how command is most crucial for a slider, and if he can command both, even if they aren't nasty, while having a great fastball and changeup, that's almost better than if he whittles the pitch down to one true out pitch. Not sure, just a factor to mention.

You have to assume this one will firmly plant him on the map now. Ks weren't quite as overwhelming as they have been, but it looked like he was every bit as dominant, given all the routine outs and a handful of singles.

Priester's line tonight: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K on 68 pitches. Nothing mindblowing, but a very nice performance after some rockier ones in terms of control earlier. Couple of strikeouts for Gonzales but like clockwork he picked up a double (his seventh).

Hopefully Swaggerty's alright. Haven't seen an update but word seems to be he jammed his shoulder. Bracing for very bad news.

 

[ImporterExporter]

It seems like one of the questions for Contreras is separating between the curve and slider some. When I've seen him, as best as I can tell the pitch can sometimes look like either. I'm not 100% sure that's a bad thing, since there is a lot of talk about how command is most crucial for a slider, and if he can command both, even if they aren't nasty, while having a great fastball and changeup, that's almost better than if he whittles the pitch down to one true out pitch. Not sure, just a factor to mention.

You have to assume this one will firmly plant him on the map now. Ks weren't quite as overwhelming as they have been, but it looked like he was every bit as dominant, given all the routine outs and a handful of singles.

Priester's line tonight: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K on 68 pitches. Nothing mindblowing, but a very nice performance after some rockier ones in terms of control earlier. Couple of strikeouts for Gonzales but like clockwork he picked up a double (his seventh).

Hopefully Swaggerty's alright. Haven't seen an update but word seems to be he jammed his shoulder. Bracing for very bad news.

The one K he had just looked like a combo of the 2 pitches. Slurve like. I'm positive there were some change ups mixed in and what looked like sliders. I mean, it's hard to tell when you're not seeing it down the pike as you normally do on TV, but most of those off speed pitches ended up down and away to righties. Had a decent amount in the dirt, but they were generally when he was already ahead in the count and you can understand the decision to throw a chase pitch. Had a handful of 3-2 counts and he got out of all of them except for the last batter he faced (bottom 7, when he was pulled with 2 outs at 89 pitches).

It wasn't often he was up in the zone and when he was, most were purposely put there (FB), which he got 2-3 K's on. That FB though is sick. And given his delivery style, has a nice downward plane on it but can pitch it up when he needs to. 95-97 almost exclusively.

I like seeing starters missing low when they do miss and he did that for the most part.

He got a standing O when he came out btw, by most of the fans (partial crowd due to covid obviously).

I'm waiting to see that Martin gif. Should be up on Twitter later tonight or tomorrow if the rest of the year is any indicator.

Cruz, impressed the hell out of me in his 3rd AB. Worked to a 3-2 count, then foul, foul, foul, foul, and hit a rocket to deep center that the Sens guy managed to get to. Just happened to be straight away CF. That was against Peel, the lefty as well. I thought he may struggle as Martin did, but he had good bat to ball skills showing tonight. Did get an infield single in the 9th I see.

 

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Sucks about Swag. I'm not quite as high on him as others, but you never like seeing guys get hurt badly. Hand/wrists are shitty (Hayes being a great example).

Good to see QP back on track tonight. I'd like to see Gonzo start reducing the K's a bit but he generally barrels up pitches so I can live with the higher K rate at the moment.

It'll be interesting to track Martin against left handed pitchers. I think at a minimum, he'll be like Moran w/a pretty good bit more power potential. If he CAN hit lefties at the higher levels/MLB, it's scary to think what he could provide for the Bucs. But it's still early and he does have a lot of swing and miss yet. Journey isn't over but hard to argue with the start he's had, especially as a 21 year old in AA ball.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Sounds like you do not want to morph that pitch into a slider based on how I understand the two pitches. Maybe he can develop a distinct slider, but I don't think he should be doing much more besides continuing to refine what is working.

This is going to sound a bit conservative, but I don't think there's any need to rush him to AAA. If he puts up another couple starts like this, you won't have a choice, but 1) he has barely pitched above single A; 2) we're coming off the pandemic year; and 3) amidst the genuine hype we should be feeling, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that a question about him is whether he'll maintain velocity. He's had the big spike and now with three solid strikes, seems to be maintaining it just fine, but this means he's doing well and you want to keep him doing well.

I think he's the 4th youngest pitcher in the entire league, which would surely also be true in AAA. There's plenty of time to let him earn his way into a AAA rotation and I don't think we need to be excessively cautious or anything, but I'd just let him face another 2-3 teams, see how the stuff is holding, etc., before going to that extra level. There's probably no reason to let creeping thoughts happen about a cup of coffee in MLB (surely we will be patient there, for a variety of rasons), but it's very doable to have another 3-4 weeks in Altoona, and then a strong batch of AAA games. If he dominates, he dominates, and I'm also of the mind that with a window you hope is opening (with Hayes), messing around too much with service time has diminishing returns, but we can cross that bridge when we get there.

For now, his next start is appointment viewing.

 

[NewAgeOutlaw]

Tony La Russa called out Yermin Mercedes for hitting a bomb on a 3-0 pitch against a position player in a blowout.

The Twins threw behind Yermin last night, and La Russa said he had no problem with the other team throwing at his player.

What a f***ing dinosaur. Yikes.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Shoulder for swaggerty

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Probably still too much of a pipe dream given his years of control, but I'd love to use Frazier to take a crack at Trammell. Deal would need some other pieces I suspect, but getting a guy you can run out there immediately would pay some dividends. He's a weird case where he went from seemingly universally loved (I remember the Pirates liking him a lot during the draft and after) to traded in multiple deals, while being known for a great eye at the plate and then having his K% balloon like crazy in a surprise MLB start this year.

Hitting for more power, hard to tell what is noise and what is not, but we know Dipoto loves to wheel and deal and I can't see Trammell being in the upper echelon of prospects for him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Did some more poking around on Frazier destinations out of boredom, and with the Giants having a great run and losing La Stella to injury, maybe he's a good fit for them. They are a hard team to really figure out, since they are rebuilding on the fly and having current success with a pretty old roster.

It's easy to see them still doing a partial sell, depending on where they are in the race, but they could just as easily try to roll with what they've got. Probably comes down to what kind of offer they could get for Gausman.

A couple guys stand out in their system as targets who might be realistic on both sides. They have a 21-22 year old C Ricardo Genovés, who has to be added to the 40-man relatively soon, but is behind Joey Bart as well as presumably Patrick Bailey (1st round pick last year) on the depth chart. Big power, leadership and intangibles to stick at C even if the defense isn't outstanding.

Another is RF Alexander Canario, 20-21 year old who has already had to be added to the 40-man. Has huge power but hit tool questions. Definitely a risk/reward guy, but fits a profile we don't have a ton of options at in the system, and is maybe expendable for them.

The landing spot for Frazier that still makes a lot of sense to me is the Yankees, who desperately need a lefty bat. I'd love to take the change on Frazier if he was available, but that's largely because it would signal to me that the strategy is to start pressing more heading into 2022, which admittedly would be surprising. But I think that kind of aggression is what BC should be doing -- the team has a long way to go, but he should continue laying groundwork and try to anticipate the improvements instead of waiting for things to come together as best as possible and then playing catchup. In any case, I think BC should be willing to take some risks in the kinds of players he tries to get this year.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Sounds like you do not want to morph that pitch into a slider based on how I understand the two pitches. Maybe he can develop a distinct slider, but I don't think he should be doing much more besides continuing to refine what is working.

This is going to sound a bit conservative, but I don't think there's any need to rush him to AAA. If he puts up another couple starts like this, you won't have a choice, but 1) he has barely pitched above single A; 2) we're coming off the pandemic year; and 3) amidst the genuine hype we should be feeling, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that a question about him is whether he'll maintain velocity. He's had the big spike and now with three solid strikes, seems to be maintaining it just fine, but this means he's doing well and you want to keep him doing well.

I think he's the 4th youngest pitcher in the entire league, which would surely also be true in AAA. There's plenty of time to let him earn his way into a AAA rotation and I don't think we need to be excessively cautious or anything, but I'd just let him face another 2-3 teams, see how the stuff is holding, etc., before going to that extra level. There's probably no reason to let creeping thoughts happen about a cup of coffee in MLB (surely we will be patient there, for a variety of rasons), but it's very doable to have another 3-4 weeks in Altoona, and then a strong batch of AAA games. If he dominates, he dominates, and I'm also of the mind that with a window you hope is opening (with Hayes), messing around too much with service time has diminishing returns, but we can cross that bridge when we get there.

For now, his next start is appointment viewing.

That's what I saw yesterday. His change up was pretty noticeable, sitting 80-82 and it looked fantastic from my vantage point off the 3B side. The "curve/slider" was the 3rd pitch I saw and it definitely seemed to have nice break right to left. Honestly it looked like a combo slurve as I said last night. Seeing the spin rate mentioned is a great sign. It certainly seemed to have a good bit of tilt to it.

I think a fairly conservative approach is the right move, given he's young and as you said doesn't have much experience at the higher levels. But if he keeps this pace, I wouldn't hold him AA past mid to late July. I'd love to see him get some action in AAA and be ready for either a late season call up or given a strong opportunity to win a spot next year with the big club. All depending on how he continues to pitch this year of course.

I'd be more cautious if his control was coming and going but he really seems to have the ability to throw strikes consistently. We'll see. I'm certainly intrigued and excited to see where he goes moving forward.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I agree. If he continues to cruise in the next couple of starts, I don't think there's much else to do but promote him to AAA. I've seen some stuff that says effectively, "if we have ML pitch grades on a guy, why waste him in the minors?", which holds true more for teams immediately trying to compete, but I think also holds for promotions. I think a lot of the old regime stuff in terms of having a guy pitch X number of innings was part of the one-size-fits-all approach.

That said, obviously he's still young, still very green, and there's no need to get crazy. If he has 2-4 more completely dominant starts, then that seems like plenty of time in AA, and you can challenge him at the AAA level, with still the possibility of a September cup of coffee if things continue to just flow.

I truly do not understand how the Yankees gave up both him and Yajure in the same deal. Smith-Njigba is a nice enough player but I can easily see that, and Escotto is toolsy but very far away. One of the two pitchers would have made it a nice trade regardless of what Taillon did/will do (IMO he will continue getting better, but the injury risk is obviously through the roof). Both of them is just robbery, there's no other way to look at it right now. Yajure in particular just seems like the kind of great immediate depth/back-end competence that a contending team would covet. I can see Contreras being a little on the smaller end and still having questions about consistency and upside.

 

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Yeah, I agree. If he continues to cruise in the next couple of starts, I don't think there's much else to do but promote him to AAA. I've seen some stuff that says effectively, "if we have ML pitch grades on a guy, why waste him in the minors?", which holds true more for teams immediately trying to compete, but I think also holds for promotions. I think a lot of the old regime stuff in terms of having a guy pitch X number of innings was part of the one-size-fits-all approach.

That said, obviously he's still young, still very green, and there's no need to get crazy. If he has 2-4 more completely dominant starts, then that seems like plenty of time in AA, and you can challenge him at the AAA level, with still the possibility of a September cup of coffee if things continue to just flow.

I truly do not understand how the Yankees gave up both him and Yajure in the same deal. Smith-Njigba is a nice enough player but I can easily see that, and Escotto is toolsy but very far away. One of the two pitchers would have made it a nice trade regardless of what Taillon did/will do (IMO he will continue getting better, but the injury risk is obviously through the roof). Both of them is just robbery, there's no other way to look at it right now. Yajure in particular just seems like the kind of great immediate depth/back-end competence that a contending team would covet. I can see Contreras being a little on the smaller end and still having questions about consistency and upside.

I think the old regime looks worse and worse the further out you go. Their inability to develop STUD pitchers is the ultimate death knell IMO. I've been wrong on some guys but Glasnow pisses me off more than just about anyone I've watched coming up through the minors, mainly because he wasn't a premium draft pick. I saw him in Altoona and remember thinking instantly he was going to be a dominant #1. And he really was for a lot of his ML career, just had no confidence or direction from the people who should have been providing him with that. Control problems, no effort to rectify that. Shipped out in one of the worst trades in history and almost immediately becomes a good pitcher, and is now one of the 4-5 best starters in baseball IMO. Absolutely dominant.

There were just so many org. issues, despite us having a few seasons of being competitive and even then we never WENT IN. It was one half measure after the other, and I do blame at least some of that on Nutting being a cheap f***.

Anyway, I think Roansy is definitely moving way up the prospect list and while I'm not quite as impressed as when I saw Glasnow, the former has better control already and nearly as good a 1-2 pitch combo. If the command holds, it'll be hard for him not be be a top 2-3 starter at a minimum.

Also, found a vid of the Martin home run. Shot from a phone but don't see an actual game feed yet. You don't even need to see the flight path. Listen to that crack!

Edit: If they had kept video taping Martin going past third, you probably could have heard me yell "Way to be Martin!!!"

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like the ML team is bottoming out, with the only question being how long the slide is going to continue. No surprise with Moran out on top of Hayes. Hopefully when Hayes comes back we get a little bit of mojo and things get more interesting at least.

Solid start out of Thomas tonight: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 65 pitches. The runs did come on a homer, but after the HR he retired 11 in a row and was very efficient. From what I could tell on twitter, he didn't have a lot of life on the FB early (it was flat) and couldn't locate the curve, but it sounded like he sharpened up from the 2nd inning on. With a nice pitch count and him cruising, I was hoping he might go 6, but I think the pitch limits are pretty strict for the lower minors guys and am of the mindset that there's no reason to push things.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Tip of the cap to Polanco for his efforts the past few games. Looked as good as I've seen him in 2 years. The key is holding serve. Otherwise it's just wash, rinse, repeat.

Frazier continues to rake. I'd be working the phones, generating some competition with teams. Take advantage of this lethal stretch. We've seen key players go down with injuries, for contenders, others are scuttling.

I think the return would rival Marte, possibly exceed it (should).

BTW, Will Craig was quite literally a swing and a miss of a draft pick. Guy looks completely over matched.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Agree on Craig. The defense is a nice surprise but I'm not seeing anything that says he won't be DFA'd again, and it's not like Evans was doing much of anything. Right now I'm just treating everything like a mess until hopefully you get Moran back and then Hayes smoothly comes back in a couple more weeks, finally giving a consistently nightly reason to turn in. Not going to complain about this one, at least it's gotten somewhat interesting.

Polanco looks like he's much simpler in his approach, and the general good eye + hard contact he's been showing have stuck. I'm still worried he can be attacked low in the zone, but for the most part he's done a good job of laying off it. IMO he can still work himself into possible trade situations - the salary is a big negative (and cap for some teams), but OPS is tanking leaguewide (I'm reasonably sure he was above average before tonight, if you can even believe it). I think he has to show consistency in the next several weeks, and though I am the staunchest holdout here, I am not holding my breath that this is possible. Still, at least for us, there aren't really a ton of options.

And I think we should try to trade Frazier and Anderson ASAP. Mitigate the risk, maximize the return, and set an even clearer vibe that the remainder of the season will continue to focus on Hayes, Reynolds, Keller, Brubaker, and a handful of other young guys. The only question is whether teams are anxious enough to pull the trigger yet – honestly, with the way things are trending in the league, I can see teams that have faded like the Angels just throwing in the towel completely (though easy to say with them considering they lost their most important player).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[cookthebooks]

'95 down in the zone' lmao also incredible i thought that was like a fan commentary but i guess thats actually the paid announcing team?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Every time I tune into a youtube game it's almost impossible to comprehend how bad the announcing is. Truly an idea befitting of Manfred's MLB.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I caught most of his appearance and he looked pretty sharp to me. Book on him seems to be that command will force a move to the bullpen eventually, and like Oviedo he will kind of be stashed there this year in all likelihood, but the dude throws a heavy fastball with a nice slider.