OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

[DanielPlainview]

Which club has more devil magic, the Cards or Giants?

 

[Gallatin]

BTW, not fully confident Gammons is as plugged in as he used to be, but interesting to note nonetheless:

I am totally down with taking this catcher at 1/1 if he's ranked in that range by multiple teams. Kind of exactly what we need if you ask me. I'll take the risk, like the Giants did, which led to threeWorld Series wins.

Still have Rocker at 1/1 though.

 

[ImporterExporter]

BTW, not fully confident Gammons is as plugged in as he used to be, but interesting to note nonetheless:

And a week or so ago it was Lawler.

Classic throw darts at everyone and then be able to say "see, I told you" (enter random date).

It'll be interesting to to see the write ups on Davis' defensive improvements. Hits extremely well, both from a contact standpoint and has plus power. He's definitely got some big offensive upside. I've only seen him play 1 game so far so I can't really say much other than the highlight videos and what people have written this spring.

I hope Leiter isn't hurt seriously. It seems odd for him to be missing starts this early in the campaign, w/ such little track record/wear and tear on the arm as it were. If he does miss multiple starts/longer I think you can write him off at 1.1 which may lift Rocker a bit as the only other arm capable of going in the top spot.

I guess Davis at 1.1 and then go upside P/P in the comp/2nd rounds could work and I wouldn't rage about it, but make no mistake, I wouldn't take him over Rocker without the latter really falling apart down the stretch. Even in the last outing, when Rocker labored in the middle innings, he still punched out 13 over just 5 innings. That was the first game I saw where he looked gassed, so it'll be interesting to see how he responds tomorrow.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Also, don't forget, if your top ranked P prospect (Preister) shits the bed continually this spring/summer, it may weigh on Cherington in picking between a hitter/P. I cannot imagine anyone in their analytic department saying that position players aren't comfortably ahead of the P top to bottom within the franchise.

Unless Rocker completely fall apart, he's my pick. Davis maybe ascends to 2 depending on how he continues to fare the next 5-6 weeks and if you hear improved remarks regarding his receiving skills.

Watching a bit more on Meyer. That kid is SMOOTH.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

 

[MrBrightside]

I'd like to be optimistic, but this team is so far away. People have compared it to the 2010 Pirates that lost 105 games but made the playoffs 3 years later, but that team had Cutch, Walker, and Pedro already in the bigs. It's more like 2007 or 2008 in that progression...not even sure they'll be competitive before it's time to move Hayes before he leaves.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I'll never understand how anyone labeled his offense overrated, at least after his dominance in the wood bat CC league. His bat speed is absolutely insane. Ball explodes off the wood. Compact and no wasted movement from start to finish. Too many people wrote him off because of New Mexico without actually looking at the player himself. What does the swing look like? How did his numbers look outside New Mexico? And yet you had numerous experts essentially writing him off (Law being at the top of the list).

The idea of a Gonzo, Hayes, Reynolds, Cruz, Peguero, etc, etc type lineup down the road is enough to get a semi. Lot of what ifs in there but the potential is there for a legit contender lineup. And that isn't even including a few other potential impact bats.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like Leiter is back after all this weekend:

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'll never understand how anyone labeled his offense overrated, at least after his dominance in the wood bat CC league. His bat speed is absolutely insane. Ball explodes off the wood. Compact and no wasted movement from start to finish. Too many people wrote him off because of New Mexico without actually looking at the player himself. What does the swing look like? How did his numbers look outside New Mexico? And yet you had numerous experts essentially writing him off (Law being at the top of the list).

The idea of a Gonzo, Hayes, Reynolds, Cruz, Peguero, etc, etc type lineup down the road is enough to get a semi. Lot of what ifs in there but the potential is there for a legit contender lineup. And that isn't even including a few other potential impact bats.

Yeah, I think swing and bat speed are two things to really key in on. We lucked out with the way things ended up breaking. I remember liking a number of the college pitchers (and Detmers has added some velo which makes him even nicer), but it was just good fortune that other teams went different directions, with Meyer's huge rise being a big factor.

The offense is so terrible right now, but with a little luck, we should have a wave of guys by early/mid-next season. I think the issue on the MLB club is accentuated by so many guys being very streaky, on top of the obvious Hayes injury. I like the looks I've gotten of Swaggerty so far this year. He has a good eye at the plate and the tweaked swing is letting him really hit the ball hard. We need to see him perform over a period of time, but he's someone who I hope we aren't especially patient with or manipulative of service time in terms of super two next year, etc. There's not as much upside to doing it with college players in the first place, and we need to start locking something in as the window begins to creep open.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Yeah, I think swing and bat speed are two things to really key in on. We lucked out with the way things ended up breaking. I remember liking a number of the college pitchers (and Detmers has added some velo which makes him even nicer), but it was just good fortune that other teams went different directions, with Meyer's huge rise being a big factor.

The offense is so terrible right now, but with a little luck, we should have a wave of guys by early/mid-next season. I think the issue on the MLB club is accentuated by so many guys being very streaky, on top of the obvious Hayes injury. I like the looks I've gotten of Swaggerty so far this year. He has a good eye at the plate and the tweaked swing is letting him really hit the ball hard. We need to see him perform over a period of time, but he's someone who I hope we aren't especially patient with or manipulative of service time in terms of super two next year, etc. There's not as much upside to doing it with college players in the first place, and we need to start locking something in as the window begins to creep open.

I just hope Frazier continues to hit. If he does, with his versatility and glove, should fetch us a solid return next month or July. I like him quite a bit but unfortunately he's going to price himself out of here if he continues to do what he's been doing. As I've said many times, you have to max returns on players who aren't in your window of potential contention. 90% of the roster as it stands should be available to the contenders. Keep building for 2023 and beyond. Hoard talent. Even if it's a boom type prospect.

With the talent we do have at most positions, you may understand why I'm really advocating college arms. We saw some of that last year and I hope we go the route again. We need to inject advanced P into the system that can coincide with a 2023-2026 window (Hayes as the centerpiece now).

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Altoona has huge power all throughout the lineup. Martin's been handling the jump to AA well so far, and I think the majority of Altoona's runs this year have been coming on HRs. They are like the polar opposite of the Pirates in that regard.

 

[DanielPlainview]

At this point the minor leagues are far more interesting than the big league club

 

[ImporterExporter]

Altoona has huge power all throughout the lineup. Martin's been handling the jump to AA well so far, and I think the majority of Altoona's runs this year have been coming on HRs. They are like the polar opposite of the Pirates in that regard.

Yeah, I'll be going to a few extra games given how much talent is on that roster.

We've got a lot of youngsters mashing right now. That's good to see.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, especially with no Hayes, the minor leagues are way more exciting and definitely a solace at this point. While not everybody is lighting the world on fire, it's been a strong start pretty much across the board, at every level. Indy is noticeably weaker, with a number of journeymen and only really a handful of prospects. Priester is the only big name guy who has started a bit slow, but the reports sound like it's just about dialing in FB command, and nothing too alarming. Definitely something to keep one eye on but you can't exactly read much into a couple of 3 IP high-A appearances.

The guys I am most excited about in the system are the big high variance guys, Cruz and Thomas. Both have started well, though the Ks are still up with Cruz early. That said, he's getting hits, and I've watched a good chunk of his ABs and to me it doesn't look like he's really pressing or chasing much. It's something to keep an eye on for sure, but it's also part of his game that you can live with if there's enough hitting. It's unfair to compare him to Judge but that's what the power tool is. He can flick his wrists and hit it a mile.

I think in tonight's game, he had two Ks looking which were on a borderline offspeed pitch (not easy to tell from minor league camera angles). Still don't want the Ks, but those kind are much different than chasing garbage or swinging through fastballs. And he's gone HR, HR, and then tonight, go ahead/game-winning triple, so not a lot to nitpick about there. I also saw him make an above average play at SS on a low pop up to that no man's land area down the third base line - he sprinted over and was easily under it to judge the angle and make the grab.

Keep him at short until he shows otherwise. It will be a slower process, as I imagine we'll want him to get a fair number of AAA ABs and hence he won't be up until around now at the absolute earliest next year, but so far, so good. And Thomas is off to a great start. Really wish Greensboro games were televsed, though I guess maybe worth noting for anyone who has MiLB tv that they will be when we play Winston Salem in about a month.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I'd like to be optimistic, but this team is so far away. People have compared it to the 2010 Pirates that lost 105 games but made the playoffs 3 years later, but that team had Cutch, Walker, and Pedro already in the bigs. It's more like 2007 or 2008 in that progression...not even sure they'll be competitive before it's time to move Hayes before he leaves.

Well they have Reynolds Moran Hayes add Tucker in June and Swaggerty in July that’s a good start.
Cruz Martin will join Indianapolis in July and potentially up next July

 

[DJ Spinoza]

This calls for its own post, as there are three options I can see, with Anderson originally slated for tomorrow's start:

1) We are close to trading Anderson and need somebody to start in the event that it all comes together.

2) One of the starter's is hurt and we're re-arranging the rotation to cover for that, simply deciding that Yajure is ready to stick in the rotation for a while.

3) We're going to go to some kind of 6-man rotation for a while.

I don't think #2 is very likely, because if that were the case, we would be putting that player on the IL for the corresponding move rather than optioning a pitcher.

It might be slightly early for a trade, but we're closer to the point where teams might need to look at themselves and make sure they don't fall behind or else make some kind of upgrade, and right now Anderson is a guy who looks very able to give you a lot of innings and a lot of quality innings, as he's on pace for a career year. I've kept saying this, but his value is higher with more regular season innings pitched for the receiving team, as he's more the kind of guy who can get you to the playoffs than be the first or second guy to pitch for you in the playoffs.

The other option could very well be in the cards – maybe we want to skip Keller with a bunch of decent lefty hitters and veterans, and so this could enable that to happen, and then the off day could be used in order to re-arrange the rotation. That would be my guess moreso than a strict 6-man rotation or something, which I guess is still possible.

 

[Gallatin]

Also, don't forget, if your top ranked P prospect (Preister) shits the bed continually this spring/summer, it may weigh on Cherington in picking between a hitter/P. I cannot imagine anyone in their analytic department saying that position players aren't comfortably ahead of the P top to bottom within the franchise.

Unless Rocker completely fall apart, he's my pick. Davis maybe ascends to 2 depending on how he continues to fare the next 5-6 weeks and if you hear improved remarks regarding his receiving skills.

Watching a bit more on Meyer. That kid is SMOOTH.

We have a ton of high upside arms these days. They might not have high floors, but there's a lot of kids especially low in the minors that could break out in the next year IMO.

 

[cookthebooks]

maybe a dumb naive question but what markers would you look at in the minors for both hitters to signs a shift in development philosophy under gmbc?

 

[DanielPlainview]

Miguel Maddux is back!

 

[MrBrightside]

Well they have Reynolds Moran Hayes add Tucker in June and Swaggerty in July that’s a good start.
Cruz Martin will join Indianapolis in July and potentially up next July

Moran is no building block for the future. He's a reasonable stopgap 1B but guys who are 28, can't move, are bad at defense, and have below average power for CI spot aren't really helping you, plus he's starting to get expensive for what he is. Tucker has never shown any ability to hit anywhere and turns 25 next month - his prospect days are long done. I do like Swaggerty, but he's had 33 at-bats above A-ball - penciling him in as an everyday OF this July is some serious optimism.

I love what we are seeing in the low minors right now, but the upper minors are about as barren as the major league roster is. I think the future is bright, but that bright future is 2025 or 2026, which was my original point. Remember that the Pirates absolutely sucked the first year or two that Cutch and Pedro and Walker were all here (they lost 195 games in 2010 and 2011) and even had a losing record in their 3rd season of 2012 - these guys will have a learning curve at this level also, so even if they start arriving in 2022 or 2023, they aren't going to be immediately competitive.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

This calls for its own post, as there are three options I can see, with Anderson originally slated for tomorrow's start:

1) We are close to trading Anderson and need somebody to start in the event that it all comes together.

2) One of the starter's is hurt and we're re-arranging the rotation to cover for that, simply deciding that Yajure is ready to stick in the rotation for a while.

3) We're going to go to some kind of 6-man rotation for a while.

I don't think #2 is very likely, because if that were the case, we would be putting that player on the IL for the corresponding move rather than optioning a pitcher.

It might be slightly early for a trade, but we're closer to the point where teams might need to look at themselves and make sure they don't fall behind or else make some kind of upgrade, and right now Anderson is a guy who looks very able to give you a lot of innings and a lot of quality innings, as he's on pace for a career year. I've kept saying this, but his value is higher with more regular season innings pitched for the receiving team, as he's more the kind of guy who can get you to the playoffs than be the first or second guy to pitch for you in the playoffs.

The other option could very well be in the cards – maybe we want to skip Keller with a bunch of decent lefty hitters and veterans, and so this could enable that to happen, and then the off day could be used in order to re-arrange the rotation. That would be my guess moreso than a strict 6-man rotation or something, which I guess is still possible.

all possible but my guess is they will spot him up and down to lengthen the rotation from time to time considering we havent heard anything about an injury

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Ended up finding some brief video of Tahnaj Thomas for those interested:



This was also confirmed by the BPro writer who was at the game, but the offspeed pitch can sometimes look like a curve and sometimes look like a slider. I've seen the take that him polishing that into more of a pure slider is a big step forward to look for this year, and it seemed like he mixed it in quite a bit and is successfully getting whiffs on it. I am more guessing for the latter, but from that brief tape and the location of pitches on Gameday (he's the one guy in the system who I will stare at Gameday to follow), he looks to be using it a lot.

His SwSt% on the season is really nice so far at 15.7%, though obviously that's the kind of stat that you contextualize with others. I don't think the control is a huge issue really, haven't seen any reports and I noticed that he wasn't getting some calls right on the edge of the zone a few times last night. Obviously, one caveat is that low minors guys are more likely to get carved up with decent offspeed stuff mixed with an overpowering fastball, but that's kind of nitpicking at this point.

It will be great to see reports from people looking at him given the lack of video. I don't think too much of Baseball Prospectus at this point, but their guy liked him and Gonzales. One of the head BA guys was there last week and I think both he (Josh Norris) and JJ Cooper live relatively close, so it will be something to monitor in the season.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

all possible but my guess is they will spot him up and down to lengthen the rotation from time to time considering we havent heard anything about an injury

Yeah, I think either this or Keller being skipped/phantom IL are the most likely. There was a plan to have some kind of 6-man rotation early on, so seeing it happen repeatedly could make sense. Not sure it's a great idea to yo yo Yajure every time we do it, though it's also not like he's a brand new rookie anymore. Could turn to Ponce next time, depending on how the rotations line up etc.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Some draft stuff, as Mackey got asked some questions in his Pirates chat and Longenhagen and Goldstein just did a long Twitch livestream updating the list.

Mackey said he thinks Lawlar would be the pick right now, but he doesn't sound overly confident, and generally seems to be in a camp with a number of others in terms of not being quite as sold on Rocker at the very top and now Leiter in limbo. The most interesting thing he said is that some scouts have speculatively floated Frelick as a possible name. I'll touch on this below but outside of the Vandy guys, I'd be very happy with that result at this point.

The FG update is too much to try and summarize, but in terms of the very top, the noteworthy things are that they think Davis is viably in the mix with the two prep SS and two Vandy SPs, and they have Mayer over Lawlar now, with it going Leiter, Mayer, Rocker, Lawlar, Davis. Doesn't sound like there's a ton of separation for them. They have Frelick just outside of this but think he's really a reach as a 1.1 option.

They did also mention Watson's electricity and tools as possible 1.1 stuff but it seems like the consensus on him is that the slightly slow start pumped the brakes on that. He's in the mix in the next tier after their top-5. For my part, we need to just see how the rest of things play out, but here's where I stand in terms of my personal preferences based on reading around and following what I can:

1. Hope that Leiter bounces right back to dominate in the next two starts and tournament play.
2. Failing that, hope to just say f*** it in terms of the variance, velo swings, etc., and draft Rocker with the idea that he'll bring it together as a pro.
3. If we're definitively out on the Vandy pitchers, then go for a real shocker with Frelick as the advanced college bat, repurposing whatever is saved in slot to swing for the fences in the comp round.
4. Similar logic to #3, but go with Mayer as the more firmly within top tier and just be patient with him.

I will not go as far as to say I'm "out" on Lawlar or anything, but combo of older, prep, some swing and miss worries me a lot. For me the thought process is essentially whether you think one of the Vandy dudes can be a FOR starter for you, and then the decision-making process branches off from there. I like Mayer rising (I think he just hit 3 HRs the other day) more than Lawlar -- the no plus tools is worrying, and the FG guys made a point of saying that the projection with him is not really the same as it was for a guy like Correa. Given all the other options, I just don't see how it fits, so with prep I lean Mayer over Lawlar from what I am reading.

Frelick is undersized and at this point would be a bit of a surprise at 1.1 for sure, but he's got a great swing, top end speed, and is a multi-sport guy, cold weather background, etc. I think he keeps making strides forward and is not that dissimilar from Gonzales, with the big exception being that he has the defense to stick in CF, or be in PNC's LF which is essentially the same difference (I think Swaggerty has the better defense). Guys who hit really well in college are good floor bets, and even if Frelick never develops plus power, if you have a 40 double guy with a little bit of pop, then to me that is a better strategic play than a longer-term development guy at SS where there's some hype but plenty of attrition, especially in terms of impact.

I look at it like this: if we aren't going to shoot for the ace, then give me the advanced college bat who should probably follow Gonzales in being pretty quick to the majors, thereby further bolstering your batting core around Hayes and Reynolds. You get Swaggerty, maybe Cruz and/or some of the boppers in AA to click, then even granting that there will be a transition period (this is a good point Mr Brightside made), the lineup will show a lot of promise in short order. I like that over the typical prep type options, especially given liking Peguero and also still liking Cruz to have a chance to stick at SS.

With Davis, I think where I'm at is pretty similar to that Frelick play, in that I do love the bat, but attrition for catchers is really high. I think you really have to be sold on him in terms of makeup and big plus power. I can't talk myself into wanting a catcher first overall who is not universally raved about, but it at least seems viable (and based on consensus, moreso than Frelick) and I could probably see preferring it over the prep tango. At the end of the day on that front, Mayer seems like a very nice pick, but if he's the guy, it has to be because we also think he'll be a superstar. Same for Lawlar. If we aren't sold on that and are going Mayer to save slot for the comp round, then we should just take the advanced college bat and do the same thing.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I just can't see Frelick being any better a prospect than Swaggerty was a few years back. If you don't have plus power already or at least projected (usually for HS bats) + pop, you really shouldn't be in the running for 1.1. Unless you're ending up with a Tony Gwynn for example and those are once in a decade type players. I just don't see the upside you'd want in a 1.1 type player. Give me Rocker, Leiter, Mayer, Davis, and maybe Lawler. Anyone else would seem like a really cheap move IMO.