OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

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DJ Spinoza

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You hope that inning is a breakthrough for Keller. I have not loved the way that he's chucked fastballs middle middle a number of times today, but the slider location and bite has been perfect. I thought the Ruf AB was going to be a microcosm of his struggles when Keller executed the slider but Ruf kept fouling it off, and then he had that one fastball that he left too low, but he was finally able to get it right up above the zone to blow it by him for the chase.

We'll see if he can navigate the third time through now.
 

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You hope that inning is a breakthrough for Keller. I have not loved the way that he's chucked fastballs middle middle a number of times today, but the slider location and bite has been perfect. I thought the Ruf AB was going to be a microcosm of his struggles when Keller executed the slider but Ruf kept fouling it off, and then he had that one fastball that he left too low, but he was finally able to get it right up above the zone to blow it by him for the chase.

We'll see if he can navigate the third time through now.

He has such limited ability to locate the fastball. It's painful to watch. He's walked 20 batters in 32 innings.

Mason Martin 2-4 w/another HR. .333/1.041. Him becoming a legit #4 hitter would be so huge for us.

Mason Martin Stats, Fantasy & News
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think today's start was a good step forward for Keller. He absolutely needs to have the slider location dialed in because he has to be able to keep the hitters off balance due to the fastball location. In terms of Ks, I think today was the best he's looked at getting them, precisely because he was able to sequence fairly well and execute when he needed to. Things went awry in the 6th and he still walked three, but the slider and the ability to get out of a mess in the 4th were big leaps forward.

It's more of the same -- I think with Keller, it's good start, bad start, mediocre start, sometimes all jumbled up together. Until it's 4-5 really bad starts in a row, there's not much else to do but keep letting him grind and learn. He's still young and development is not linear. The Ws don't matter anyways (and thanks to Holmes, we easily could have won the game). I'm not confident by any stretch, but the mix that was on display today was by far a big advance.

Martin is a huge positive sign so far, and he and Smith-Njigba especially are both performing well at that level, with Cruz, Mitchell, and Castro not having too bad of starts themselves. Martin acclimating to the AA pitching with a strong hit tool is enormously great news.

I think the other big level jump that's still mostly good news is Swaggerty. He hasn't had the hits fall as much as you'd want, but he's walking at a good clip, not striking out very much, and showing power. Today he basically poked an opposite field HR after just nearly missing a huge bomb in the first inning. Then in the 9th, he drew a walk and scored easily from second base on a fairly hard hit single for the walkoff win. I would guess that I've been able to see a little under half of his ABs this year, and to me he looks really good at the plate. I think he'll definitely need a reasonable stay in AAA, but so far I think he's handling the big jump well.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Frazier is pretty obviously a perfect fit for them. They took a flier on Odor, but Frazier can easily hold down the 2B job or play LF, and they don't really need him to be a pure leadoff hitter, so they can move him around.

The Yankees are an interesting trade partner, but it's too early to really bat around names.... though that never stops me. The first guy who comes to mind is Clint Frazier, who has struggled his way out of a starting/prominent side of a platoon role, and essentially seems to have value for them as a guy who can inevitably step in when Judge or Stanton is hurt. He's into his arbitration years now so you would figure the Yankees can replace that depth otherwise, so maybe they've given up on him.

A more attracting and intriguing target, IMO, is Deivi Garcia, who has seemingly been leapfrogged in the rotation pecking order and has more and more doubters about whether he'll stick at SP due to being undersized.

Then the Yankees still have an incredibly deep system, all things considered, so any number of guys could be combined in a package not too unlike the Taillon deal. Hard to speculate at all here, but there are plenty of upside options who are on or near the 40-man, and then guys buried lower in rookie ball or the low minors who would do the trick.

To finish out the thoughts, my assumption would be that Garcia is off limits because he's quality MLB depth at the very least. If we did manage to wrangle that, it's well worth the "risk" of his size IMO. You could have a rotation by the middle of next year that is 3/5 made up of Yankee acquisitions. Frazier on the other hand I think might actually be more available -- they can still option him to the minors, but there might be some worry about tanking his trade value. Acquiring him would be a bolder move by BC, since he's only controllable through 2024. He would slot in immediately and if things clicked, be very useful and perhaps tradable in another year or two in his own right.

With the prospects option, which I would assume is way more likely, it would be hard to argue against BC's recent record of acquiring 18-20 year olds who seem to pop. If he can do it again, all the better.

I would say 2 things regarding Frazier in general: 1) I actually think he'll be pretty highly sought after, given that he might be on pace for a career year and has a history of being a guy who can be very streaky, something I think a deeper, playoff-bound team would find potentially attractive. His approach to me looks like there's less floor, and while his defense has seemingly regressed, it apparently was graded very well before, so I don't think it's a big concern. He's got the ability to play multiple positions, some pop, helpful as a PH on a day where he's coming off the bench, etc., and cheap with one more year left.

2) Without getting crazy, I think it's an important trade for BC. There's no "harm" in trying to just make the system deeper, but BC has really done a lot of that work, and with a certain timing of prospects, there's a sense in which you need to balance things and be able to focus on developing the core you have without exposing too many to the Rule 5 draft, etc. We're not quite that deep, but in the 40-man decisions for the year after this one, there's some tightness and only some of that will be relieved through normal injury and attrition. All that to say that I would rather see him take a bigger swing with this deal than attempt to just get more good depth for the system. How that can happen is obviously easier said than done. Clint Frazier would be a big swing in that direction since he's not really a guy you would build around. But if he came here and popped, then you have a piece of the immediate puzzle sorted who you can eventually think about flipping again if somebody like Mitchell or Smith-Njigba is knocking on the door in another year and a half or so.

This is already overly long, but I would also say that I hope BC isn't shy about putting his eggs in one basket, so to speak. I think the Yankees and Angels especially are two teams that will be feeling a lot of pressure this year. If you can target one extremely high variance prospect as part of a deal that you combine Anderson or RichRod with Frazier, then I think you do it. Try as I might, I cannot convince myself that the Angels would be willing to deal Jo Adell, let alone for solid but so-so guys like our trade pieces (my gut feeling is that if he was available, it would be as a blockbuster for Scherzer). But if Adell kept striking out in AAA at a 35-40% rate, and you think you can shave 10% back off of that, then he's the type of boom or bust player that you cannot get in any other way.
 

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I have to imagine there will be numerous teams interested in Frazier. He's versatile, and a plus fielder at multiple positions. Plus hit tool, just lacks the in game pop though not completely void of that. Always liked him and he's doing us a favor by hitting like he is.

I'm hoping 3-4 teams really want him and the quality of return increases in our favor. Hard to imagine that not happening if he keeps up the current pace or at least remains close to it.

I'd love to see us add a top 5 (org) type C. Maybe the Dodgers are still willing to move Ruiz. There is a kid on the Mets (Francisco Alvarez) who is absolutely destroying the baseball and reads like he's a solid defensive player with strong baseball IQ. Not sure if the Mets (leading the East) would have any need for Frazier but that's someone I'd probably be keying on.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Mets have some injury issues creeping up now and that division is almost guaranteed not to slow down, so maybe they'll get some desperation. Alvarez seems like a guy who has become unavailable due to how well he's hitting, but he's still a ways off so who knows.

I do think that 3-4 teams wanting him is the ideal scenario for us and one that's fairly possible due to his positional flexibility and what he can provide. It's more of a stretch to start hypothesizing about how packaging him with someone could increase his trade value, but teams can pretty much always use leverage relievers, so you never know.

I think BC should probably keep Anderson and Frazier separate in any deal, unless he was truly bowled over. It seems like a wait and see situation right now, but we should be creeping towards when a trade window will be open. I keep saying this, but I think Anderson should be pretty aggressively shopped. No reason to risk injury or an extended slump that would decimate his trade value, and sooner or later we will have both Brault and Kuhl potentially in the mix, along with Yajure who already looks like he should be in MLB permanently (when Kuhl returns and the situation is crowded, I think we should just make him a leverage reliever and hope for success... in fact, from a trade scenario, a decent plan would be selling high on RichRod this year, seeing if Kuhl can take over as a closer, and then having Kuhl to sell in the offseason or next year in that role).
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Not sure this makes a whole lot of sense, but I guess it's a bit like shuffling chairs on the Titanic. Would have liked to run Stokes Jr. out there for some more consistent ABs, but kinda is what it is. Based on eye test, I would like to see Tom continue to get a healthy amount of ABs. I'm not sure he has a great upside (4th OF, perhaps solid OBP but not really great defense or speed), but he's looked the best of anyone. I think one of the corner OF spots is wide open precisely for a guy like Clint Frazier, but we'll see.
 

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Fantastic weather for tonight's game in Harrisburg. Mid 70's, mostly sunny. 1% change of rain lol.

Taking my son as well so it'll be an extra great evening, though we'll probably not stay for the entire 9 innings (told the ex we'd leave like 7th inning). Should see the regulars since they were off yesterday. Looking forward to watching Contreras. I'll be on my phone, but will give pertinent updates throughout.
 

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Fantastic weather for tonight's game in Harrisburg. Mid 70's, mostly sunny. 1% change of rain lol.

Taking my son as well so it'll be an extra great evening, though we'll probably not stay for the entire 9 innings (told the ex we'd leave like 7th inning). Should see the regulars since they were off yesterday. Looking forward to watching Contreras. I'll be on my phone, but will give pertinent updates throughout.

if contreras keeps pitching like he has they might blow through 9 innings pretty quick
 
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DJ Spinoza

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It doesn't seem like Harrisburg's roster has many real prospects because of how bad the Nationals system is, but maybe that will present more of a challenge to Contreras. No clue who any of those guys are. The last team he faced (Binghamton) was pretty clearly not that great.

Have to imagine this start could be what really catapults him into buzz prospect status, if he approximates what he has done so far. One of the youngest pitchers at the level, velo spike, new organization, etc. Hope he keeps it rolling.
 

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It doesn't seem like Harrisburg's roster has many real prospects because of how bad the Nationals system is, but maybe that will present more of a challenge to Contreras. No clue who any of those guys are. The last team he faced (Binghamton) was pretty clearly not that great.

Have to imagine this start could be what really catapults him into buzz prospect status, if he approximates what he has done so far. One of the youngest pitchers at the level, velo spike, new organization, etc. Hope he keeps it rolling.

Yeah Harrisburg is not very good. I was at a game already for something to do on a Saturday. I can remember watching Vlad Guerrero SR play in Harrisburg in 1996. Would have been about 13/14 then. Missed the Milton Bradley game 7 title winning walk off homer a few years later by 1 game. Harrisburg has had some greats come through here over the years. I started making the longer trek to Altoona when Cole was coming out through and usually go to 4-5 games a year out there.
 
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Missed top of 1st parking. Ugh.

Caught Contreras last batter of 1st. Guy lined out to hard to right on a fastball. Looks like he have up a single to previous hitter.
 

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Gave up leadoff single after falling behind 3-0.

Next guy grounds out to Cruz, who looks like an alien. Unassisted double play. Guy after that weak grounder to Cruz. Neither were tough plays but he made it look easy. Dude is crazy tall. Definitely has room to add muscle.

Cruz led off top of 4. Robbed of a single by 2B in the hole. Really nice play, spin and throw.
 
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Martin Kd looking again. Figure lefties are going to give him trouble.

Contreras 3 up, 3 down. Another quick inning. Struck out 1st guy on what looked like a damn slurve at 81 mph. Pop up and weak grounder to round out the bottom of 4th.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Thanks for the updates IE! Game should be on MiLB tv but it's an error or something, as there's no feed. Looks like he's cruising tonight and not getting tons of Ks, which is fine given that all the outs seem routine.

Priester off to a 1-2-3 start in Greensboro.
 
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Contreras is winning me over. His FB are all 95 to 97. Most are down around the knees. Lot of life on it. Gets in on the batters quick.

Another strike out to end the 5th. Blew it by hitter at 97 on 3-2. Has a 2 hitter going. Curve getting 1 hit.

Will need some refinement on the off speed location. But thats to be expected for a young guy. The stuff elicits swing and misses though which is good to see. Just needs the location consistently.
 
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