The one sort of recently established cliche about winning in MLB that I am pretty convinced by is the idea of a talent window, and that's why I'm stubbornly sticking with Leiter and Rocker as my 1-2 hopes, since they would probably map pretty well with Contreras, Cruz, and maybe another AA guy like Mitchell or Smith-Njigba (with both being longer shots, which is also true of Cruz and to an extent Contreras) to arrive as the wave just behind Yajure and Swaggerty. It could give you a good bridge to the lower minors with a guy like Gonzales being an x-factor in terms of rising more quickly (Vaughn went directly from high-A into MLB, though obviously the pandemic played a role in that).
I think the thing we'll need is a little bit of luck, in terms of both enough of the prospects hitting and avoiding injuries. Beyond that, I don't really think we'll follow the model of teams like the Astros and Cubs who accomplished this full tear down + rebuild, because they did it in the end by virtue of flexing financial muscle that we either don't have or won't use in any case. And I don't think the Rays model is applicable for a few reasons, but at the very least because they probably outclass the Dodgers in terms of development and that's something easier said than done. I also don't know if their roster construction is copiable, and think that it may have done them in when they had a chance, but that's a separate argument.
But back to the draft, while I do think you simply take who you think can be the best player, I also think if you aren't fully committed to someone, then other factors should enter into the picture. And with us, it's not simply something like need, but also doing the best you can to build with Hayes in mind, which means players who can arrive more quickly. And I think it should mean Leiter or Rocker, unless for some reason your scouts are really out on both of them. In that case, it could mean prep there, and overslot college fallers later on, but that complicates things.
If we're out on the pitchers and/or just going to hunt star upside, then we have to be convinced that the player will get there. Like I said, I have no way to evaluate the prep guys beyond simply reading about them, but why I like Watson the most is age + swing + bat speed.
In terms of looking forward, we do need to hunt for star talent, but I think important steps that are going to be needed to hit the window, whether it's fully surrounding Hayes or catching him a bit later and then partially being refueled by a Hayes trade, are definitely these ones: 1) develop supplementary pieces, both above average impact types (I'd put Swaggerty here, and early returns do seem to indicate we're unlocking his tools with the swing change) and solid, cheap depth to round out the roster and have some backups ready for inevitable injuries; and 2) do #1 and also hit on some impact talent via international acquisitions. Here is where I am more optimistic with BC's track record, and I hope this is the kind of thing we can do with the ok trade pieces we will have this year.
