OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Down The Drain

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JimmyTwoTimes

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With Oliva tearing up AZFL, and possibility of going the Reynolds route for us...should def trade Marte while his value is very high. Was expecting Oliva to be more of a 4th OF and waiting on Swaggerty before moving Marte... but hes looking much better than that.

Another game today he fell just short of a cycle. Now with 9 doubles(league lead) , 2 Triples, 10 RBIs, 10 walks(10 Ks), and 7 SBs(leads league), with .393 avg and 1.200 OPS. Got on base 35 times now in 53 ABs lol.

Perfect leadoff type to go with Newman. 1-2 in order. Reynolds 3rd, taking over for Marte.

This isnt a hot streak anymore...hes completely dominating top pitchers . Also same age as Reynolds and Height(just much faster and better D) and supposed to start in CF at AAA next season. A solid start in AAA in he should be up quick.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I haven't done too much reading but Shelton is the main name I've heard that I like.

Oliva is definitely having an encouraging showing in the AFL and will remain a kind of sleeper prospect. I think the question with him might be somewhat in tandem with Reynolds, in terms of whether or not Reynolds can actually keep some of his game the same, or add a little bit more power. Reynolds has pretty ok speed and range, but his arm is a bit of a liability IMO, and so I'm not sure he profiles well in a corner, but Oliva has enough rise as a CF contender that I think Reynolds in a corner is one of the big questions we'll see unfold next year.

Hard to say too much definitive right now, and I know many are down on Polanco, even moreso after the lost season, but I think in all likelihood, the plan should revolve around seeing what kind of 4th OF can emerge to push guys next year and then going from there. It's totally feasible that the best time to trade Marte might be this offseason, but short of some drastic things, I don't see how you do that and do anything other than a full-blown rebuild. He's a star and we are significantly worse without him.

In any case, I remain probably the biggest backer of Polanco, but he's still far from a sure thing (obvious understatement), and having a solid 4th OF is basically a big asset these days, rather than somebody who isn't going to play.

The question of any rebound next year hinges almost entirely on the pitching, and then on getting more production out of the catcher position, offensively and defensively. I hate to beat a dead horse, but Grandal would solve so many issues that it's ridiculous: power, pitch-framing, etc. Even a pretty one-dimensional pitch framer would be a marked improvement from that position. I like Stallings as the backup now and will be interested to see if he can add another gear or two to his defensive game. d'Arnaud is my reasonable-but-still-very-high-because-it's-the-Pirates hope, and this might be controversial, but I think d'Arnaud and some success from a new pitching philosophy will make this team 85ish-win viable again, which is probably what NH is going to shoot for. Really it still needs an injection of pitching talent from outside the organization, but catcher is the most obvious weakness, if we assume that the driving strategic impetus will be around the pitching coach and a revamped pitching philosophy. They need to not just bury the two-seam, ground-ball approach and move on, but also anticipate something within the current day game that can give the group of players they have some kind of edge.
 
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JimmyTwoTimes

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Actually cant wait to see Polanco with this new ball. I def think 35+ HRs is realistic. Which is what we lacked last year. Adding his power with Bell would improve our runs scored alot. We were 4th in BA in the league but 19th in runs scored. 28th in HRs had alot to do with that.

Polanco should def be our RF going into the year. Reynolds could play CF to start the season (while we see what Oliva does in AAA), and we have guys like Frazier/Kramer who could be the other OF in the meantime. Assuming we dont sign anyone.

Its a very weak FA crop of OF. That's a big reason to consider trading Marte. We'd land a few top 100 prospects. An article a few days ago about it..Marte being the #1 sought out OF this offseason. I think we take advantage of that. We need our young players to grow anyway if we are gonna compete in 21-23....them having a bigger role without Marte here speeds up that process. If Oliva dominates AAA like hes been doing AZFL....i see no reason not to do what we did with Reynolds(on accident)....let him come up and provide that spark at the top of order to go with Newman and Reynolds. Oliva can steal as much as Marte...so wouldn't lose anything in that area. His D is solid. And an XBH machine. The HRs havent come yet...it may with the new ball. Getting 15+ like Newman and Reynolds did. And best thing about them is they are clutch hitters.

Couldn't care less about our players totals if they cant come thru when it matters. Newman/Reynolds showed that so many times last year. Oliva seems like that type as well
 
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Empoleon8771

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I'm curious for the response I'll get to this. I know the Pirates only gave up Hearn to get Kela, but with the Dodgers bullpen imploding and already having Smith as their catcher, do you think the Pirates would be able to pull off Ruiz for Kela? If so, I'd love to see them both do that and also bring in a veteran catcher.
 

DJ Spinoza

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If we can pull of Ruiz for Kela, then certainly do it. I don't even think there's really a question, and I'm pretty high on Kela.

In fact, I think that one ~decently likely~ route of spending a modicum of money would be to extend Kela. It may be some kind of risk given the clubhouse situation, but Vazquez's money will be cleared from the books and we could make a cheaper, longer-term investment in him. Who knows what will transpire... it could certainly be in his interest to just basically wait it out, but he's old enough that some guarantee of a payday might be appealing. The risk in signing him from the Pirates POV might be the guaranteed years it would take, but (like basically every "risk" you wanna talk about relative to how bad MLB players have) that's not really much of a risk.

I don't think the Dodgers would do it, but it's not totally out of the question. I'd offer up Crick too, who is somebody with maybe some bigger question marks, but also many more years of control attached.

But for the catching position, I think we need to sign somebody. For me, the buck still stops with Grandal – it's not a matter of being able to afford him or not, or afford to give out the biggest contract for him. If we are gunshy of how high it might get (which could actually be something of an open question), then move onto d'Arnaud, but there's not much reason to go bargain shopping beyond that, barring the identification of someone who is developing better framing skills (and in that case, we already may have that kind of later-years, sorta-breakout-in-an-extremely-relativist-sense guy in Stallings).

At the end of the day it comes down to a bold decision for me. If you think you can actually win with the core, which at least ostensibly even Coonelly thinks, then give Grandal a big contract and try to win the division next year or in 2021, with Marte still anchoring things. Maybe Grandal tapers off starting in 2022 or whatever, but he would immediately impact the worst parts of this team which have ripple effects in the rest of it. It's too far to say that Grandal is the one key to things, but he would absolutely be a central player in any scenario where we can pivot back to the kind of middling-but-there ability to hang around we showed before the All-Star Break and Unreal, Almost Metaphysical Collapse this year.
 

ChaosAgent

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If the Pirates intend to try to compete (LOL) this year, they need to spend about $35M on 2 new starting pitchers and a starting catcher. 1 of the starting pitchers must be a stone-cold lock for the rotation and the other guy should be competing for a spot. Also, they need a good OF. Polanco will not stay productive/healthy; how many times have we seen this movie before? And bullpen help.

Or they can blow it up, trade Marte/Bell/Kela and save Bob a lot of money in the process. Certainly I know which route he would prefer.

As an aside, in either scenario I may try to make a value trade to ship Josh Bell out. Complain all you want but outside of May, Bell was the same player he always was: average hitter overall, bad as a righty and terrible in the field. The optics would be terrible but if you take emotion out of it Bell is an ideal "sell high" candidate.
 
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ImporterExporter

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Doc gets it.

Bell's 2 month binge was a fraud. He's a .800ish, abysmal defensive 1B. If you could actually get a haul for him, you take it and run. Get rid of Marte while he still has good value.

This team needs pitching. Period. Point blank. Our rotation is a disaster. Our pen is much weaker for reasons already known. Add C in there as well.

I screamed all May, June and July to get rid of Bell and Vasquez for massive returns....did the Pirates listen? Did most of this board listen? Nope. Being right when so many people making 6 and 7 figures a year to baseball for a living is just icing on the cake for me.

Running the Pirates, even with Nutting as an owner would not be that difficult if you're willing to make hard decisions with players. And that means selling when a players value is highest coupled with having no chance at contending which is where we were and are now. We should be selling everything off that isn't named Newman/Reynolds. Keller can stay because I think with the right manager/pitching coach he gets turned around. At least to the point where he can be a middle of the rotation pitcher.

But make no mistake, this franchise will not contend without a massive improvement to the pitching staff.
 

DJ Spinoza

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The idea that the Pirates could or even should have traded Bell is a farce. I don't actually think you are trolling, but I really wish that you were. There is not one analogous example that is even in the same stratosphere of what you seemingly want to have happened, given where Bell is in his contract cycle. (And this doesn't even begin to address what is the underlying premise of your complaint, which is that Bell completely sucks and somehow the Pirates should have keyed into this fact, and gotten a superstar return for him after 5 legendary weeks... even going full-cynical on Bell, this just isn't a realistic idea).

And then throwing Vazquez into the picture? C'mon dude, let's not f***ing re-litigate this insanity forever. Most people were open to dealing Vazquez for a big haul. None of that matters now and we probably shouldn't try and make bad faith arguments with each other over a pedophile.
 
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ChaosAgent

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The idea that the Pirates could or even should have traded Bell is a farce. I don't actually think you are trolling, but I really wish that you were. There is not one analogous example that is even in the same stratosphere of what you seemingly want to have happened, given where Bell is in his contract cycle. (And this doesn't even begin to address what is the underlying premise of your complaint, which is that Bell completely sucks and somehow the Pirates should have keyed into this fact, and gotten a superstar return for him after 5 legendary weeks... even going full-cynical on Bell, this just isn't a realistic idea).

I know you're addressing ImporterExporter here, but let me say that I don't think it was realistic to say they should have traded Bell mid-season. Now, though? Sell high. He went on an insane hot streak but otherwise is what he is - an average/below-average 1B man.

If you can get 2 top-100 prospects for him, take it and run. I'd take the Marcell Ozuna trade as a jumping off point for Bell. Bell right now is awfully similar to 2017 Ozuna at any rate - in contract status, years of control, former top prospect status coming off of an out of nowhere breakout year.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I'd still be skeptical, but I don't absolutely have a problem with the notion of trading Bell in the right move, in some measure because I am pretty high on Jose Osuna. What I take issue with is that there was somehow a trade to be had for Bell this summer.

In general I am extremely skeptical of the idea of stacking prospects, because I think that the teams who had success in doing that and winning World Series also ended up spending significantly to supplement their team, on top of having a good amount of luck. And especially when you historicize what has happened and how the game has totally transformed from when the Astros and Cubs, for example, started to stockpile talent and tank up to now, I just don't think there are obvious answers to certain questions.

The Pirates approach which emphasizes caution above all else (and probably will do so even more going forward, given how badly they failed when they threw caution out the window to get Archer) is obviously an abysmal failure. But I don't think there's a royal road to making a contender. In fact, San Diego will be a pretty good litmus test for this in the next year or two.

IMO, the most important thing that happens this offseason is what kind of pitching philosophy they implement, and how that philosophy will get more out of the talent they have in the organization. I would rank spending money on a catcher as the second most important, and bolstering the starting pitching as a close third, then the new manager and whatever else. Obviously, from just an ideal perspective, the team very much needs a better rotation anchor, doubly so with Taillon gone, and in some sense I could just quickly rattle off what I'd take as important: 1) fix pitching philosophy, 2) sign Grandal, 3) sign Wheeler. I don't really think that even with the most optimistic outlook imaginable for Archer, Musgrove, Keller... that it's the dream rotation for a playoff series.

But at the end of the day, my attitude remains that it's pretty easy to slam the Pirates given how things played out, and I'm more or less fine being cavalier and writing off the post-ASB nightmare. We'll see how much of a clean break can be made, and in think an underrated story to watch will be whether the bullpen can be turned into a weapon again. Everything to getting on some kind of track emanates out of the pitcher-catcher situation. We could get Max Scherzer and we'd still be in extreme trouble if the catching duo was Diaz and Stallings.
 

ChaosAgent

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I'd still be skeptical, but I don't absolutely have a problem with the notion of trading Bell in the right move, in some measure because I am pretty high on Jose Osuna. What I take issue with is that there was somehow a trade to be had for Bell this summer.

In general I am extremely skeptical of the idea of stacking prospects, because I think that the teams who had success in doing that and winning World Series also ended up spending significantly to supplement their team, on top of having a good amount of luck. And especially when you historicize what has happened and how the game has totally transformed from when the Astros and Cubs, for example, started to stockpile talent and tank up to now, I just don't think there are obvious answers to certain questions.

The Pirates approach which emphasizes caution above all else (and probably will do so even more going forward, given how badly they failed when they threw caution out the window to get Archer) is obviously an abysmal failure. But I don't think there's a royal road to making a contender. In fact, San Diego will be a pretty good litmus test for this in the next year or two.

IMO, the most important thing that happens this offseason is what kind of pitching philosophy they implement, and how that philosophy will get more out of the talent they have in the organization. I would rank spending money on a catcher as the second most important, and bolstering the starting pitching as a close third, then the new manager and whatever else. Obviously, from just an ideal perspective, the team very much needs a better rotation anchor, doubly so with Taillon gone, and in some sense I could just quickly rattle off what I'd take as important: 1) fix pitching philosophy, 2) sign Grandal, 3) sign Wheeler. I don't really think that even with the most optimistic outlook imaginable for Archer, Musgrove, Keller... that it's the dream rotation for a playoff series.

But at the end of the day, my attitude remains that it's pretty easy to slam the Pirates given how things played out, and I'm more or less fine being cavalier and writing off the post-ASB nightmare. We'll see how much of a clean break can be made, and in think an underrated story to watch will be whether the bullpen can be turned into a weapon again. Everything to getting on some kind of track emanates out of the pitcher-catcher situation. We could get Max Scherzer and we'd still be in extreme trouble if the catching duo was Diaz and Stallings.

I don't disagree with you that a radical shift/hail-mary in pitching philosophy is step 1, and a catcher/SP is step 2. I'm also not about stacking prospects for stacking prospects' sake; I'm simply suggesting that they should look to sell high on Bell after a career offensive year predicated on one incredible month. If we did trade Bell, I'd bring in an outside 1B (Adam Lind floats around seemingly every off-season) while giving Moran/Osuna a shot as well.
 

Winger for Hire

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I'm finding it really hard to dig into the Pirates off-season, in terms of trying to evaluate moves and such, because I have zero faith in them ballooning the payroll to a meaningful level at this point. Any moves that are more than just window dressings need to have the financial backing that the team isn't willing to go to.
 
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pistolpete11

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I think selling high on Bell is a good idea, assuming there is some team out there that is willing to bite. I think whether that team actually exists is a valid question, though. I mean, we aren't the only ones with access to splits.

I'd also be open to trading Marte, Kela, or anyone else not named Reynolds, Newman, and maybe Taillon. I think they should start as fresh as possible with a new core, new manager, new pitching coach...and new owner.
 
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ChaosAgent

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I think selling high on Bell is a good idea, assuming there is some team out there that is willing to bite. I think whether that team actually exists is a valid question, though. I mean, we aren't the only ones with access to splits.

I'd also be open to trading Marte, Kela, or anyone else not named Reynolds, Newman, and maybe Taillon. I think they should start as fresh as possible with a new core, new manager, new pitching coach...and new owner.

In a selloff as you describe, I think Frazier would also have value. He's a slightly above-average second baseman with 3 years of control left.

However, I wouldn't trade Musgrove/Williams and I'd still bring back Archer. You'd hope with a new pitching coach 2/3 of those would be able to rehabilitate their value substantially. Only Musgrove would fetch anything material right now. Also, there'd be no value in trading Taillon now when he's not going to pitch 1 inning next year. May as well trade him next winter if the Pirates are still in rebuilding mode and he looks like he'll be ready for opening day '21.
 

pistolpete11

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In a selloff as you describe, I think Frazier would also have value. He's a slightly above-average second baseman with 3 years of control left.

However, I wouldn't trade Musgrove/Williams and I'd still bring back Archer. You'd hope with a new pitching coach 2/3 of those would be able to rehabilitate their value substantially. Only Musgrove would fetch anything material right now. Also, there'd be no value in trading Taillon now when he's not going to pitch 1 inning next year. May as well trade him next winter if the Pirates are still in rebuilding mode and he looks like he'll be ready for opening day '21.
Yeah, I don't support selling just to sell, though. They'd have to get some value in return. I don't think most of the pitchers would get much in return at the moment, so might as well see if a new pitching coach/strategy can 'fix' some of these guys. If they for some reason did, see ya.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I'm never too much averse to selling, and I don't want to sound like John Wehner or something, but I think it's also the main task to build a team, not simply to get the most value out of everything. That's obviously somewhat of a stupid, idealist wish-upon-a-star sentiment in today's game, but I'd still argue that it's a key to doing the main thing you need to do in MLB: be good enough to get a crack at the playoffs and then hope for the best.

What that actually means given the circumstances and set of players we have is another question. I'd be open to selling Bell if my internal assessment was that over the course of a whole year, Osuna could give you decent production at 1B, coupled with a perspective that actually saw opening up that spot as a way to give a fuller chance to some young guys to break in. A platoon of Osuna-Moran sounds extremely unsexy on paper, but depending on the production, and what you might get immediately out of Hayes at 3B for example (I wouldn't bank on a lot of offense to start, but at the same time, we have a number of examples of players exceeding over their AAA stats given where his age is at).

A lot hinges on what you think of Bell's game. Again, I'm pretty much dismissing the post-ASB situation out of hand. I say this not to wish away problems with the team, but simply because I'm not sure where you start in terms of drawing out conclusions. Sometimes the answer is partly to make a clean break and see how things unfold in a different context.

So I guess coming back around to a point I was originally intending to make, I'm less interested in the specifics of this or that particular player going forward, and more interested in whether or not we will commit firmly to a new/revamped direction for the team. A strength of older teams was both bullpen and catcher, so I'd still start there, and we have the compounded effect that it's no longer possible to get passable regular season starters by hammering sinkers. We've broken finally from any remnants of the latter strategy, but that actually remains to be seen insofar as Searage was only one solider in an organizational approach.

I don't have concrete answers or a lot of optimism about things. I don't disagree with the need to spend money, and for me, even the "let's be slightly reasonable" mindset starts and ends with a major bid for at least one of Grandal or Wheeler. I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, but I'd be floored if we couldn't earmark winning contracts to d'Arnaud and Wheeler and still not even sniff 90M.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Don't know much about Kotsay, but I think my order of preference for manager is 1. Fuld, 2. Shelton.

IMO the hire might indicate some important things about where the team is heading, even if ultimately I don't think the manager is too important. I want to see us get the craziest most forward thinking guy out there.
 

Winger for Hire

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I'm just happy the team doesn't seem to be interested in going the old retread route.

Joe McEwing is a name I'd like to see interviewed. Worked all over the ChiSox system in different role. From everything I know about watching him in the early 2000's, he was the scrappy guy who stuck around because he had a high baseball IQ, the work effort to bring out the most in his limited skill set, and the ability to adapt. He was a classic SuperU/bench guy which I think could be valuable for a team that seems to want to make a high percentage of its players versatile. Having a guy who knows exactly what that entails and what a player needs, in terms of playing time, game reps, etc, to succeed in that kind of role/transition would be very useful.

Everyone one of his teammates, from Al Leiter to Cliff Floyd, have tagged him as a future manager. Also, having an inexperienced, younger manager might make it easier to blend in analytics in the dugout without big push backs. I'd certainly have him on my shortlist of candidates.

I also still like Kapler as a manager. I think his rocky time in Philly might help him learn to not take an extreme hardline and take all numbers as gospel. I also think that his 2019 season wasn't entirely his fault and was just a popular fall guy. He had pretty much his entire bullpen on the DL most of the season, lost a couple big lineup pieces, and I can't blame the Phils' lack of starting pitching on him. It probably won't matter because it sounds like San Francisco is pretty hot on him and I think the Padres are also sniffing around him.
 

Winger for Hire

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Also just saw that Will Craig won the 1B Gold Glove this year, so there's that to toss onto the "To deal or not to deal Bell" talk.

ETA- And in the Completely Expected category, Hayes takes the 3B Gold Glove. It's his 3rd straight MiLB GG.

Those two Pirates GG farm hands combined for 4 errors (Craig- 1; Hayes- 3)
 
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Empoleon8771

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I'm absolutely praying that Hayes can be even a .280 hitter in the majors, because that would be an extremely valuable player for the Pirates if they can manage that.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I'm an extreme skeptic about Craig – I just don't see the offense in the way that I'd like – but it could be interesting if he has a good spring training and forces his way into a bench role. Overall, I still lean against the idea of trading Bell, largely because I wonder what his value really would be, and I think there still is a gear there in terms of consistency. To put it in other terms, I'd wager he will have at least as much value in any deal at next year's deadline or next winter, so I'm in no hurry to shuffle him off.

If somebody like Craig or Osuna, or eventually even Cruz, starts to force the issue, then I think you explore the option more fully, but the main attention right now on the team needs to be adding pitchers and adding a catcher, not subtracting or manipulating other positions. This is incredibly cliche, but things tend to work themselves out in terms of playing time, etc., so I'd just be continuing to evaluate where players are and what the assessment of the players coming up behind them is. You ideally want to be dealing from positions of strength, not positions of, "well, this team can't immediately win the division for sure, so we should tinker." I don't think anyone here is saying that, but that's my worry with getting too speculative about moving Bell (or Marte, or Archer, etc).

I'm still insanely high on Hayes. I think the bat will continue to come, and I'd like to see us give him the opportunity to break camp with the team, although I would assume his timeframe is going to be more like early June. Again, maybe a good spring training forces the issue somewhat. Lord knows we still need better infield defense besides Newman.
 

ChaosAgent

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I'm an extreme skeptic about Craig – I just don't see the offense in the way that I'd like – but it could be interesting if he has a good spring training and forces his way into a bench role. Overall, I still lean against the idea of trading Bell, largely because I wonder what his value really would be, and I think there still is a gear there in terms of consistency. To put it in other terms, I'd wager he will have at least as much value in any deal at next year's deadline or next winter, so I'm in no hurry to shuffle him off.

If somebody like Craig or Osuna, or eventually even Cruz, starts to force the issue, then I think you explore the option more fully, but the main attention right now on the team needs to be adding pitchers and adding a catcher, not subtracting or manipulating other positions. This is incredibly cliche, but things tend to work themselves out in terms of playing time, etc., so I'd just be continuing to evaluate where players are and what the assessment of the players coming up behind them is. You ideally want to be dealing from positions of strength, not positions of, "well, this team can't immediately win the division for sure, so we should tinker." I don't think anyone here is saying that, but that's my worry with getting too speculative about moving Bell (or Marte, or Archer, etc).

I'm still insanely high on Hayes. I think the bat will continue to come, and I'd like to see us give him the opportunity to break camp with the team, although I would assume his timeframe is going to be more like early June. Again, maybe a good spring training forces the issue somewhat. Lord knows we still need better infield defense besides Newman.

Agreed that Craig offers nothing whatsoever to me. If we did move Bell you'd sign some fungible lefty hitter (honestly I could just see them bringing back Neil Walker at this point...) and platoon him with Osuna. When Hayes is ready, move Moran over. Though he's immobile I see Moran being a substantial upgrade at 1B defensively over Bell.

Again I'm not moving Bell just to move Bell. I'm about maximizing value on a player; I see Bell's value being lower in July when he's OPSing .791 with atrocious defense again than it is right now.
And there's not much "team building" around him at that point; he'd clearly be a ? again.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Pirates To Interview Ryan Christenson For Managerial Opening

I don't know a ton about him, but he has a very strong resume. I also like the rumor of Kotsay more and more as well – Zaidi interviewing him seals the deal, and obviously Oakland is something of a small-market machine organization, so culling from their talent makes a whole lot of sense.

Christenson in particular was the main manager for a ton of the great young talent Oakland has for a number of years in the minors – Olson, Chapman, Healy, etc. I haven't found too much of substance about his style, but he does seem to be viewed as a future managing candidate, so that either bodes well for wanting him to be the guy for us, or badly if you take the extreme cynical view of most fans, amount to "why would you want a job with the Pirates?"

I think that line of thinking is obviously a bit of sports fan stupidity (the reason you want the job is that there are only 30 of those jobs in the whole world), but it's definitely the case that prospective candidates would have a view that ranks the Pirates lower on the list of jobs, if they have a choice. But it seems like short of guys who can effectively name their price and term like Girardi, that doesn't end up happening too much.

Christenson seems like the most commonly assumed successor to Bob Melvin, whose contract runs through 2021.

I don't hate the idea of Banister other than as someone who isn't a fresh soldier. Whether or not he is a full-on analytics guy, etc., getting someone with such a good record in player development like Christenson would be a step in the right direction of addressing a core area where we need improvement.
 
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