Race for the Rocket Richard 2021

[LeafGrief]

The funniest part of this thread is seeing how people spell asterx asteriscks asteri ah f*** it

 

[DannyGallivan]

The NFL has teams only play a small portion of the league, should we throw out all the awards?

I guess the alternative is we go a year without hockey, but I'm not sure how many would be on board.

It should also be noted asterisk only mean something was different and further reading is needed. An asterisk is not a mark to show anything was less deserving or accomplishments aren't legitimate.

Out of curiosity, are the many McDavid threads littered with asterisk remarks?

As a Jet fan, I'm not in the McDavid or Matthews camps. I'm just stating the obvious... there are a lot of teams and a lot of defenses not being faced. Would that have made a difference in the long run? Hard to tell, perhaps a comparison of next season and this season would give a hint.

 

[Bedards Dad]

As a Jet fan, I'm not in the McDavid or Matthews camps. I'm just stating the obvious... there are a lot of teams and a lot of defenses not being faced. Would that have made a difference in the long run? Hard to tell, perhaps a comparison of next season and this season would give a hint.

That's true. It also means the defense that players like Matthews and McDavid play have a lot more time to adjust to their game and shut them down, which isn't happening.

We could also look at previous years and see if they were top players at their respective strengths. Has McDavid always been near the top in points? Has Matthews always been one of the best goal scorers in the game?

 

[The Podium]

That's true. It also means that the defense that players like Matthews and McDavid play have a lot more time to adjust to their game and shut them down, which isn't happening.

We could also look at previous years and see if they were top players at their respective strengths. Has McDavid always been near the top in points? Has Matthews always been one of the best goal scorers in the game?

Not to mention that the splits of good to bad teams in division and among the league is pretty much the same. Sure Matthews doesn’t have to try to score against Colorado Tampa, but he also doesn’t get Buffalo or Detroit. Ditto for McDavey

 

[ToDavid]

Not to mention that the splits of good to bad teams in division and among the league is pretty much the same. Sure Matthews doesn’t have to try to score against Colorado Tampa, but he also doesn’t get Buffalo or Detroit. Ditto for McDavey

For additional context, the bottom four GA teams in the league come from each of the four divisions. The bottom 10 are as evenly split as possible, 2 each from the North and East, 3 each from the West and Crental.

I can't find the tweet, but I recall someone did the analysis and found that the defense in the North was worse (higher average xGA) but they had better goaltending, so actual goals are pretty even across all four divisions.

 

[kmart]

The NFL has teams only play a small portion of the league, should we throw out all the awards?

the nfl schedule has overall less games and the max amount of games against a team is 2x. their schedule is consistent/follows similar paths. it allows year to year comparisons.

the awards and cup will be all legit no doubt about that, the problems will only arise when u want to compare the results of this season to other accomplishments from other seasons. then u will be hit with the asterisk remarks and deservedly so. in way the results mean less in the covid season... its especially sad for players who have their prime/career year.

for example, mcdavid piles up the points and gets outlining/very odd stat at the end of the season - that's a covid result, i refuse to use this season as a pinnacle of a career, however mcdavid was the best before this year so nothing really changed when we "ignore" this season. its a bit different for matthews as he never won an award before, his dominance in goal scoring will be based on a tainted trophy.

 

[abo9]

The funniest part of this thread is seeing how people spell asterx asteriscks asteri ah f*** it

I'm confused why everyone talks about Asterix but not about Obelix

I thought it was a hockey thread

 

[Bedards Dad]

the nfl schedule has overall less games and the max amount of games against a team is 2x. their schedule is consistent/follows similar paths. it allows year to year comparisons.

the awards and cup will be all legit no doubt about that, the problems will only arise when u want to compare the results of this season to other accomplishments from other seasons. then u will be hit with the asterisk remarks and deservedly so. in way the results mean less in the covid season... its especially sad for players who have their prime/career year.

for example, mcdavid piles up the points and gets outlining/very odd stat at the end of the season - that's a covid result, i refuse to use this season as a pinnacle for a career, however mcdavid was the best before this year so nothing really changed when we "ignore" this season. its a bit different for matthews as he never won an award before, his dominance in goal scoring will be based on a tainted trophy.

Of course they are different leagues that are ran differently, but not having an even schedule (which doesnt happen in any NHL season) doesn't discredit any accomplishments.

The issue isn't the astrisk, the issue is using it as a crutch to discredit accomplishments. Of course it has to be mentioned the seaosn was different, but that doesn't mean the players who win are less deserving.

Matthews has been in the top 3 goal scoring since he entered the league. His ability to score has never been in question.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

the nfl schedule has overall less games and the max amount of games against a team is 2x. their schedule is consistent/follows similar paths. it allows year to year comparisons.

the awards and cup will be all legit no doubt about that, the problems will only arise when u want to compare the results of this season to other accomplishments from other seasons. then u will be hit with the asterisk remarks and deservedly so. in way the results mean less in the covid season... its especially sad for players who have their prime/career year.

for example, mcdavid piles up the points and gets outlining/very odd stat at the end of the season - that's a covid result, i refuse to use this season as a pinnacle of a career, however mcdavid was the best before this year so nothing really changed when we "ignore" this season. its a bit different for matthews as he never won an award before, his dominance in goal scoring will be based on a tainted trophy.

Matthews: most goals in first 5 seasons by an American born player. That’s with missing a fair amount of games.

Tainted trophy my ass!

 

[Crabapple]

It was fun when McDavid was close, but I think Matthews is running away with it. Great goal scorer, one of many for him I'm sure.

 

[SirQuacksALot]

I remember talk of the 2020 cup winner having an asterisk.

Well, there's one on the Wikipedia

The awards will be handed out just like last season, which was shortened, or 2013, which was shortened, or 1995, which was shortened.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

the nfl schedule has overall less games and the max amount of games against a team is 2x. their schedule is consistent/follows similar paths. it allows year to year comparisons.

the awards and cup will be all legit no doubt about that, the problems will only arise when u want to compare the results of this season to other accomplishments from other seasons. then u will be hit with the asterisk remarks and deservedly so. in way the results mean less in the covid season... its especially sad for players who have their prime/career year.

for example, mcdavid piles up the points and gets outlining/very odd stat at the end of the season - that's a covid result, i refuse to use this season as a pinnacle of a career, however mcdavid was the best before this year so nothing really changed when we "ignore" this season. its a bit different for matthews as he never won an award before, his dominance in goal scoring will be based on a tainted trophy.

I mean yes he has won an award before lol

 

[X66]

the nfl schedule has overall less games and the max amount of games against a team is 2x. their schedule is consistent/follows similar paths. it allows year to year comparisons.

the awards and cup will be all legit no doubt about that, the problems will only arise when u want to compare the results of this season to other accomplishments from other seasons. then u will be hit with the asterisk remarks and deservedly so. in way the results mean less in the covid season... its especially sad for players who have their prime/career year.

for example, mcdavid piles up the points and gets outlining/very odd stat at the end of the season - that's a covid result, i refuse to use this season as a pinnacle of a career, however mcdavid was the best before this year so nothing really changed when we "ignore" this season. its a bit different for matthews as he never won an award before, his dominance in goal scoring will be based on a tainted trophy.

This makes zero sense, because since coming into the league he's been the(excluding this year) he has:

2nd most goals overall
1st in even strength goals
2nd in goals per game(BARELY behind Ovechkin)

But here's the difference...

Matthews has had WAY less PP time than all the top goal scorers in that time because Mike Babcock was an idiot.

Ovechkin for example got 4:17 of PP time a game in that 4 year span, where as Matthews only got 2:36 seconds, that's a ton of time difference.

Matthews has been the best goal scorer since he entered the league, and doesn't need the rocket to prove it.

 

[Mez]

Funny how all the Leaf haters/trolls disappear when Matthews is doing well.

Think about it, they only come here when he's injured/slumping to discredit Matthews.


Absolutely hilarious, inferiority complex on full display.

That can be said for literally every troll of every player...Not sure why you feel the need to point the obvious out?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Prior to yesterday's games, I estimated Matthews to have a 63% chance of winning the Richard trophy (tying for the lead, or an outright win). Two goals at this stage is huge. I now forecast him to have an 80% chance of winning.

The only other players with >5% chance are McDavid (15%) and Rantanen (9%). Percentages add up to more than 100% due to the possibility of a tie.

 

[authentic]

Matthews really wants it this year. Kid is shooting the puck ridiculously well - he picked a good year to shoot above his average.

I don’t think there’s much of a chance of AM34 losing the Richard now, only if he were to miss some serious time in the final stretch.

He actually couldn't really shoot the puck for like 13 straight games but otherwise yeah he picked a good year.

 

[authentic]

Always some excuses. Im sure he was doing fine if he was still playing. Dude is good at shooting but thats about it

Haha yep, you got it.

 

[authentic]

The funniest part of this thread is seeing how people spell asterx asteriscks asteri ah f*** it

It's not astrophysics.

 

[IPS]

Spends almost an entire month of a season (a shortened season at that) working through a wrist injury where he couldn't shoot at all and he's still going to win the Rocket and probably by a good margin.

Hands down the best goal scorer in the league and there's nobody close.

 

[pcruz]

Funny how all the Leaf haters/trolls disappear when Matthews is doing well.

Think about it, they only come here when he's injured/slumping to discredit Matthews.


Absolutely hilarious, inferiority complex on full display.

If by slumping, you mean 13 points in 12 games, yeah he was slumping for a while after getting a wrist injury.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Prior to yesterday's games, I estimated Matthews to have a 63% chance of winning the Richard trophy (tying for the lead, or an outright win). Two goals at this stage is huge. I now forecast him to have an 80% chance of winning.

The only other players with >5% chance are McDavid (15%) and Rantanen (9%). Percentages add up to more than 100% due to the possibility of a tie.

Curious, what model are you using for you forecast?

 

[authentic]

Spends almost an entire month of a season (a shortened season at that) working through a wrist injury where he couldn't shoot at all and he's still going to win the Rocket and probably by a good margin.

Hands down the best goal scorer in the league and there's nobody close.

Considering he actually missed 3 games as well it's really not close at all. He's truly on his own level as a goal scorer.

 

[TopChedder]

It was fun when McDavid was close, but I think Matthews is running away with it. Great goal scorer, one of many for him I'm sure.

Matthews wrist is getting healthy again so I can also see him turning it up. He was basically playing with one hand for a while (why they let him play is beyond me)

McDavid is incredible and if anyone could have won it over Matty it's him. He is an absolute treat to watch.

 

[TopChedder]

Spends almost an entire month of a season (a shortened season at that) working through a wrist injury where he couldn't shoot at all and he's still going to win the Rocket and probably by a good margin.

Hands down the best goal scorer in the league and there's nobody close.

I agree he is the best and considering his injury it's pretty awesome.

But McDavid is close as a goal scorer lol nobody in the league is doing anything that is "AINEC" better than him.

 

[Demandedace]

This isn't an outlier year. In 2017/18 he also shot at 18.2%. While above his 16% average it's within his normal range.


Edit: I thought Matthews had a pretty big gap in shooting %, so I took a look at a few other top scoring players.

Player	Low %	High %	% Gap	High % above career average
Matthews	14.7%	18.2%	3.5%	2.2% or a 13.75% increase
Ovechkin	8.7%	15.4%	6.7%	2.6% or a 20.3% increase
Pastrnak	10.8%	17.2%	6.4%	2.6% or a 17.8% increase
Stamkos	12.7%	20.2%	7.5%	3.2% or a 18.8% increase
Draisaitl	12.9%	21.6%	8.7%	4.2% or a 24.1% increase
McDavid	12%	17.1%	5.1%	2.1% or a 14% increase
Crosby	10.7%	19.9%	9.2%	4.7% or a 32.4% increase

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Notes:
- Ovechkin has a 4.9% gap if you remove his one outlier year of 8.6%
- Draisaitl has a 17.5% gap if you include his first year at 4.1%

So it seems Matthews outlier year isn't really an outlier year at all, atleast compared to other top scorers.

I mean, you can call it what you want but he's still shooting above his percentage this year. The other year he shot at 18.18% was a year with lower volume for him as well (comparable to this year's total to date) - his totals are:

279 shots 14.34%
187 shots 18.18%
251 shots 14.74%
290 shots 16.2%
148 shots 18.2%

The higher the volume the more the percentage evens out.