Race for the Rocket Richard 2021

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Edmoney, Mar 13, 2021.

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  1. OB34KNH Registered User

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    Matthews has been in the lead since week 2.

    You're point is invalid. Even though he was in the lead, but he was injured/slumping, people came in here to mock him and make fun of his injury, and, say that he's awful.
     
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  2. Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Goal-scoring in hockey is well-modelled by the Poisson probability distribution. We know how many goals each player already has, we know how many games are left on the schedule, and we can make a reasonable estimate of what their goal-scoring rate is. Plug that into the formula and this allows us to model the range of outcomes.

    Run that 10,000 times and it gives us a sense of what the outcomes are likely to be. Injuries are the wildcard, as those are very tough to model.
     
  3. 24 others Registered User

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    Oh well. Good for Auston to have people like you defending him on the internet, I guess.
     
  4. snag Registered User

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    EA Sports does a pretty good job of it for me. In career mode, ripping it up.....BOOM...out for like 30 games. Happens like clockwork ;)
     
  5. Kezaster Registered User

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    This is probably said each and every year since forever. But I think the rocket-ovi era is now past, it'll go back to being a race of multiple guys.
     
  6. All Mod Cons Registered User

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    Matthews is the only player out of that group that routinely loses poll vs the likes of Barkov, Barzal, Pettersson, Eichel, Point and Derek Grant.
     
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  7. Tavares the Noble I was in the pool!!

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    That's really cool. I'm not the most well versed in forecasting, but find it very interesting.
     
  8. Tavares the Noble I was in the pool!!

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    Thanks! He does seem to have a little better scoring at the start, like most players. His first game with 4 goal also bumped that stat up a bit, and injuries seem to lower in centain months.

    I wouldn't say he starts red hot then slows down, he is about a .55 goal scorer in most months, and clearly isn't slowing down this year outside of an injury.
     
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  9. tom leafers Registered User

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    were on page 34
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. authentic Registered User

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    Well, if it helps any, Matthews is literally the most consistent goal scorer in the NHL since he's been in the league, from season to season and has the most games with a goal scored relative to how many games he's played, and he's played a decent chunk far from 100%.
     
  11. abo9 Registered User

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    I think it started in 2010... someone is eventually gonna be right. Like if I predict that it's gonna rain tomorrow, I'll be right about 45% of the time depending on my location...

    Did you even look at the table? His 4 goals might have bumped his first year, but it was still the worst "first month" he had since this year. He absolutely "slows down" during the year, it's a whole 0.2 goals/game lower in any month except December. Whether it's because of injuries he play through, or fatigue or whatever else, it's part of the package of any hockey player.

    You can disagree with the terms "red hot" and "slows down", but he scores at a much higher pace in the first month of the season than any other month. Doesn't mean he's a chump the rest of the year.

    Yeah I was looking at his game logs and lots of 1 goal games. Must be pretty cool to have a guy where you almost expect him to score half the games.
    Edit: Anyone has the number of Hattrick AM actually has? Seems like he has a lot of 1 and 2 goals games, but not many hat tricks considering how many goals he scores.
     
  12. Tavares the Noble I was in the pool!!

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    I did, and those 4 goals put him above .7 got in Oct for his career. Like I said he does seem to score more at that start, but the reality is the NHL scores at a slightly higher rate earlier in the year.

    I'm always confused as to why people think it's important that he scores a couple extra goals in one month vs another. It's not like he is Patrick Laine who gets 18 in a month then just a couple in the following months.

    Ovis best month is Oct at .7 gpg, yet I have never seen a single person mention it.
     
  13. leaffaninvancouver formerly in Victoria

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    I don't think he's had any actually. Just that 4 goal game against Ottawa.

    Edit: Whoops my bad two games where he scored at least 3, still for a guy who scores so much it's crazy how little hattricks he's had.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2021
  14. Jimmy Firecracker Reporting from this Tree!

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    Matthews has only one other hattrick that wasn’t his debut game. It occurred last year against New Jersey.

     
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  15. authentic Registered User

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    His first game was 4 goals then he had 1 hat trick last season, so just 2 in his career so far.
     
  16. jasonleaffan Registered User

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    Mark him down for 28, and hopefully more tonight.
     
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  17. Skate2Stick Registered User

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    Definitely his rocket to lose
     
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  18. WillyC Registered User

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    Matthews gets 3 tonight... for 30 on the season
     
  19. McFlyingV Registered User

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    I think Matthews probably has the Richard locked down. Seems like all the awards are pretty much determined already with McDavid winning the Art Ross, Hart, and Lindsay, Vasilevskiy winning the Vezina, and Hedman winning the Norris. Not sure who will win the Selke but my guess is one of Couturier, Bergeron, O'Reilly, Stone or Danault.
     
  20. All Mod Cons Registered User

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    It's crazy to think he's done all this, while contracting Covid in the last 8 months or so.
     
  21. BorntoLose Registered User

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    Wasnt he asymptomatic?
     
  22. Demandedace Registered User

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    Let’s not post lies in this thread.
     
  23. Jimmy Firecracker Reporting from this Tree!

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    Twas a prediction I think. A failed one, but still a prediction.
     
  24. OB34KNH Registered User

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    Phillipe Danult and Selke?
     
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  25. McFlyingV Registered User

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    Threw him in as a wildcard even though I know he won't win it due to his lack of offence since you usually need to be at least a 1st line level offensive producer as well to win the award. His defensive game is elite though. Got some votes last year to finish 6th in voting. Cirelli is another guy who is really good but likely not enough offence in his game to keep up with guys like Bergeron, Couturier, O'Reilly and Stone.

    Anyways my point was that the Selke is really the only award right now that should have any debate. The other major awards are pretty much all locked up barring some unforeseen circumstances.
     
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