Race for the Rocket Richard 2021

[OB34KNH]

When Matthews is ahead in the race, then you have a lot of Matthews fans in the thread. If someone else was ahead, you would have someone else's fans here.

That's just a natural thing. I don't really see the need to bring trolls, haters and inferiority complexes into it.

Matthews has been in the lead since week 2.

You're point is invalid. Even though he was in the lead, but he was injured/slumping, people came in here to mock him and make fun of his injury, and, say that he's awful.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Curious, what model are you using for you forecast?

Goal-scoring in hockey is well-modelled by the Poisson probability distribution. We know how many goals each player already has, we know how many games are left on the schedule, and we can make a reasonable estimate of what their goal-scoring rate is. Plug that into the formula and this allows us to model the range of outcomes.

Run that 10,000 times and it gives us a sense of what the outcomes are likely to be. Injuries are the wildcard, as those are very tough to model.

 

[24 others]

Matthews has been in the lead since week 2.

You're point is invalid. Even though he was in the lead, but he was injured/slumping, people came in here to mock him and make fun of his injury, and, say that he's awful.

Oh well. Good for Auston to have people like you defending him on the internet, I guess.

 

[snag]

Goal-scoring in hockey is well-modelled by the Poisson probability distribution. We know how many goals each player already has, we know how many games are left on the schedule, and we can make a reasonable estimate of what their goal-scoring rate is. Plug that into the formula and this allows us to model the range of outcomes.

Run that 10,000 times and it gives us a sense of what the outcomes are likely to be. Injuries are the wildcard, as those are very tough to model.

EA Sports does a pretty good job of it for me. In career mode, ripping it up.....BOOM...out for like 30 games. Happens like clockwork

 

[Kezaster]

This is probably said each and every year since forever. But I think the rocket-ovi era is now past, it'll go back to being a race of multiple guys.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Well, since entering the league, Matthews compares to his peers thusly:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	347	200
Matthews	318	185
Pastrnak	321	171
McDavid	345	168
Draisaitl	352	166

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window a year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	265	167
Matthews	236	145
McDavid	263	138
Draisaitl	270	137
Pastrnak	246	137

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window 2 years:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	183	118
Draisaitl	192	112
Matthews	174	111
Pastrnak	164	102
McDavid	181	97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking at strictly this current season and last year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Matthews	106	74
Ovechkin	102	67
Pastrnak	98	64
Draisaitl	110	62
Kyle Connor	110	56

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah, he's starting to take the reins away from Ovechkin, and other than Pastrnak, the gap between his goal scoring any that of the others at the top end is doing nothing but widening.

Matthews is the only player out of that group that routinely loses poll vs the likes of Barkov, Barzal, Pettersson, Eichel, Point and Derek Grant.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Goal-scoring in hockey is well-modelled by the Poisson probability distribution. We know how many goals each player already has, we know how many games are left on the schedule, and we can make a reasonable estimate of what their goal-scoring rate is. Plug that into the formula and this allows us to model the range of outcomes.

Run that 10,000 times and it gives us a sense of what the outcomes are likely to be. Injuries are the wildcard, as those are very tough to model.

That's really cool. I'm not the most well versed in forecasting, but find it very interesting.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Well, I did it for you.

Month	2016 GP	G	2017 GP	G	2018 GP	G	2019 GP	G	2021GP	G	Total GP	Total G	G/GP
October	9	6	12	9	11	10	14	11	9	6	55	42	.764
November	14	4	11	4	1	2	14	5	11	12	51	27	.529
December	12	8	7	4	13	7	13	11	13	6	58	36	.621
January	13	5	12	6	10	2	10	9	3	3	48	25	.521
February	14	8	11	5	15	9	15	9	0	0	55	31	.564
March	14	5	6	3	14	7	4	2	0	0	38	17	.447
April	6	4	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	13	7	.538

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thanks! He does seem to have a little better scoring at the start, like most players. His first game with 4 goal also bumped that stat up a bit, and injuries seem to lower in centain months.

I wouldn't say he starts red hot then slows down, he is about a .55 goal scorer in most months, and clearly isn't slowing down this year outside of an injury.

 

[tom leafers]

were on page 34

 

[authentic]

Well I gotta say thank you for sharing this. Is there an easy way to calculate goals and games per month, or did you do it manually? And you're right in that goals/game per month would make it more comparable since some months would have more games than others I imagine.

It was not a knock on him when I mentionned he had "red hot" starts. He actually still scores at an elite pace the rest of the year. But the stats also seem to suggest a similar trend every year:
2017-18: 7 goals in 8 first games. 27 goals in 54 games after (prorates to 41 goals)
2018-19: 10 goals in first 6 games. 27 goals in 62 games afterwards (prorates to 35 goals)
2019-20: 7 goals in first 7 games. 40 goals over next 63 games (prorates to 52 goals)
2020-2021: 18 goals in first 18 games. 9 in 18 to date. (prorates to 41 goals)

I mean, most goal scorers have streaks anyway.

Well, if it helps any, Matthews is literally the most consistent goal scorer in the NHL since he's been in the league, from season to season and has the most games with a goal scored relative to how many games he's played, and he's played a decent chunk far from 100%.

 

[abo9]

This is probably said each and every year since forever. But I think the rocket-ovi era is now past, it'll go back to being a race of multiple guys.

I think it started in 2010... someone is eventually gonna be right. Like if I predict that it's gonna rain tomorrow, I'll be right about 45% of the time depending on my location...

Thanks! He does seem to have a little better scoring at the start, like most players. His first game with 4 goal also bumped that stat up a bit, and injuries seem to lower in centain months.

I wouldn't say he starts red hot then slows down, he is about a .55 goal scorer in most months, and clearly isn't slowing down this year outside of an injury.

Did you even look at the table? His 4 goals might have bumped his first year, but it was still the worst "first month" he had since this year. He absolutely "slows down" during the year, it's a whole 0.2 goals/game lower in any month except December. Whether it's because of injuries he play through, or fatigue or whatever else, it's part of the package of any hockey player.

You can disagree with the terms "red hot" and "slows down", but he scores at a much higher pace in the first month of the season than any other month. Doesn't mean he's a chump the rest of the year.

Well, if it helps any, Matthews is literally the most consistent goal scorer in the NHL since he's been in the league, from season to season and has the most games with a goal scored relative to how many games he's played, and he's played a decent chunk far from 100%.

Yeah I was looking at his game logs and lots of 1 goal games. Must be pretty cool to have a guy where you almost expect him to score half the games.
Edit: Anyone has the number of Hattrick AM actually has? Seems like he has a lot of 1 and 2 goals games, but not many hat tricks considering how many goals he scores.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Did you even look at the table? His 4 goals might have bumped his first year, but it was still the worst "first month" he had since this year. He absolutely "slows down" during the year, it's a whole 0.2 goals/game lower in any month except December. Whether it's because of injuries he play through, or fatigue or whatever else, it's part of the package of any hockey player.

You can disagree with the terms "red hot" and "slows down", but he scores at a much higher pace in the first month of the season than any other month. Doesn't mean he's a chump the rest of the year.

I did, and those 4 goals put him above .7 got in Oct for his career. Like I said he does seem to score more at that start, but the reality is the NHL scores at a slightly higher rate earlier in the year.

I'm always confused as to why people think it's important that he scores a couple extra goals in one month vs another. It's not like he is Patrick Laine who gets 18 in a month then just a couple in the following months.

Ovis best month is Oct at .7 gpg, yet I have never seen a single person mention it.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I think it started in 2010... someone is eventually gonna be right. Like if I predict that it's gonna rain tomorrow, I'll be right about 45% of the time depending on my location...



Did you even look at the table? His 4 goals might have bumped his first year, but it was still the worst "first month" he had since this year. He absolutely "slows down" during the year, it's a whole 0.2 goals/game lower in any month except December. Whether it's because of injuries he play through, or fatigue or whatever else, it's part of the package of any hockey player.

You can disagree with the terms "red hot" and "slows down", but he scores at a much higher pace in the first month of the season than any other month. Doesn't mean he's a chump the rest of the year.



Yeah I was looking at his game logs and lots of 1 goal games. Must be pretty cool to have a guy where you almost expect him to score half the games.
Edit: Anyone has the number of Hattrick AM actually has? Seems like he has a lot of 1 and 2 goals games, but not many hat tricks considering how many goals he scores.

I don't think he's had any actually. Just that 4 goal game against Ottawa.

Edit: Whoops my bad two games where he scored at least 3, still for a guy who scores so much it's crazy how little hattricks he's had.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Matthews has only one other hattrick that wasn’t his debut game. It occurred last year against New Jersey.

 

[authentic]

I think it started in 2010... someone is eventually gonna be right. Like if I predict that it's gonna rain tomorrow, I'll be right about 45% of the time depending on my location...



Did you even look at the table? His 4 goals might have bumped his first year, but it was still the worst "first month" he had since this year. He absolutely "slows down" during the year, it's a whole 0.2 goals/game lower in any month except December. Whether it's because of injuries he play through, or fatigue or whatever else, it's part of the package of any hockey player.

You can disagree with the terms "red hot" and "slows down", but he scores at a much higher pace in the first month of the season than any other month. Doesn't mean he's a chump the rest of the year.



Yeah I was looking at his game logs and lots of 1 goal games. Must be pretty cool to have a guy where you almost expect him to score half the games.
Edit: Anyone has the number of Hattrick AM actually has? Seems like he has a lot of 1 and 2 goals games, but not many hat tricks considering how many goals he scores.

His first game was 4 goals then he had 1 hat trick last season, so just 2 in his career so far.

 

[jasonleaffan]

Mark him down for 28, and hopefully more tonight.

 

[Skate2Stick]

Mark him down for 28, and hopefully more tonight.

Definitely his rocket to lose

 

[WillyC]

Matthews gets 3 tonight... for 30 on the season

 

[McFlyingV]

I think Matthews probably has the Richard locked down. Seems like all the awards are pretty much determined already with McDavid winning the Art Ross, Hart, and Lindsay, Vasilevskiy winning the Vezina, and Hedman winning the Norris. Not sure who will win the Selke but my guess is one of Couturier, Bergeron, O'Reilly, Stone or Danault.

 

[All Mod Cons]

It's crazy to think he's done all this, while contracting Covid in the last 8 months or so.

 

[BorntoLose]

It's crazy to think he's done all this, while contracting Covid in the last 8 months or so.

Wasnt he asymptomatic?

 

[Demandedace]

Matthews gets 3 tonight... for 30 on the season

Let’s not post lies in this thread.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Let’s not post lies in this thread.

Twas a prediction I think. A failed one, but still a prediction.

 

[OB34KNH]

I think Matthews probably has the Richard locked down. Seems like all the awards are pretty much determined already with McDavid winning the Art Ross, Hart, and Lindsay, Vasilevskiy winning the Vezina, and Hedman winning the Norris. Not sure who will win the Selke but my guess is one of Couturier, Bergeron, O'Reilly, Stone or Danault.

Phillipe Danult and Selke?

 

[McFlyingV]

Phillipe Danult and Selke?

Threw him in as a wildcard even though I know he won't win it due to his lack of offence since you usually need to be at least a 1st line level offensive producer as well to win the award. His defensive game is elite though. Got some votes last year to finish 6th in voting. Cirelli is another guy who is really good but likely not enough offence in his game to keep up with guys like Bergeron, Couturier, O'Reilly and Stone.

Anyways my point was that the Selke is really the only award right now that should have any debate. The other major awards are pretty much all locked up barring some unforeseen circumstances.