Race for the Rocket Richard 2021

[Demandedace]

Considering he actually missed 3 games as well it's really not close at all. He's truly on his own level as a goal scorer.

It's comments like these that cause people to disparage Leafs fans so much. To say no one is close to a guy who is likely to win his first-ever Rocket while playing at the same time as the #1 goal scorer of all time and another two insanely elite talents over in Edmonton is absurd. Especially when the season he is likely to win he's only playing against six other teams all season long, most of which are pretty inept defensively.

 

[The Podium]

It's comments like these that cause people to disparage Leafs fans so much. To say no one is close to a guy who is likely to win his first-ever Rocket while playing at the same time as the #1 goal scorer of all time and another two insanely elite talents over in Edmonton is absurd. Especially when the season he is likely to win he's only playing against six other teams all season long, most of which are pretty inept defensively.

I mean, we always need to respect Ovi, but Matthews is pretty clearly the best goal scorer of the next generation. The only one close IMO, is Pastrnak who is the only one you didn’t mention. Matthews is second to Ovi in goals scored since entering the league, so the 6 team argument doesn’t hold up to the bigger sample.

Then there’s McDavid who can be the best if he wanted too, similar to Crosby in a handful of years, but that takes away from his game and makes him a less effective player.

 

[Demandedace]

I mean, we always need to respect Ovi, but Matthews is pretty clearly the best goal scorer of the next generation. The only one close IMO, is Pastrnak who is the only one you didn’t mention. Matthews is second to Ovi in goals scored since entering the league, so the 6 team argument doesn’t hold up to the bigger sample.

Then there’s McDavid who can be the best if he wanted too, similar to Crosby in a handful of years, but that takes away from his game and makes him a less effective player.

Draisaitl and Pastrnak are both right there with AM34. Any of the three of them could win the Rocket in each season - so to say that "it isn't even close" is insane.

 

[McIce Whole]

I mean, we always need to respect Ovi, but Matthews is pretty clearly the best goal scorer of the next generation. The only one close IMO, is Pastrnak who is the only one you didn’t mention. Matthews is second to Ovi in goals scored since entering the league, so the 6 team argument doesn’t hold up to the bigger sample.

Then there’s McDavid who can be the best if he wanted too, similar to Crosby in a handful of years, but that takes away from his game and makes him a less effective player.

How would scoring more goals make Mcdavid a less effective player? We've been wanting him to shoot more for years, he always tries to pass and although he's been better at it this year, he still does not have that shooters mentality.

 

[pcruz]

It's comments like these that cause people to disparage Leafs fans so much. To say no one is close to a guy who is likely to win his first-ever Rocket while playing at the same time as the #1 goal scorer of all time and another two insanely elite talents over in Edmonton is absurd. Especially when the season he is likely to win he's only playing against six other teams all season long, most of which are pretty inept defensively.

Well, since entering the league, Matthews compares to his peers thusly:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	347	200
Matthews	318	185
Pastrnak	321	171
McDavid	345	168
Draisaitl	352	166

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window a year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	265	167
Matthews	236	145
McDavid	263	138
Draisaitl	270	137
Pastrnak	246	137

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window 2 years:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	183	118
Draisaitl	192	112
Matthews	174	111
Pastrnak	164	102
McDavid	181	97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking at strictly this current season and last year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Matthews	106	74
Ovechkin	102	67
Pastrnak	98	64
Draisaitl	110	62
Kyle Connor	110	56

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah, he's starting to take the reins away from Ovechkin, and other than Pastrnak, the gap between his goal scoring any that of the others at the top end is doing nothing but widening.

 

[Iapyi]

It's comments like these that cause people to disparage Leafs fans so much. To say no one is close to a guy who is likely to win his first-ever Rocket while playing at the same time as the #1 goal scorer of all time and another two insanely elite talents over in Edmonton is absurd. Especially when the season he is likely to win he's only playing against six other teams all season long, most of which are pretty inept defensively.

The #1 goal scorer of all time has been retired for a long long time. No wonder Capitals fans are so unpopular.

I will agree with you about the fact that there is no way Matthews could be called a player at his own level. He is ahead right now but there is no way that puts him head and shoulders above everyone else. There are some really good goal scorers out there.

 

[Demandedace]

Well, since entering the league, Matthews compares to his peers thusly:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	347	200
Matthews	318	185
Pastrnak	321	171
McDavid	345	168
Draisaitl	352	166

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window a year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	265	167
Matthews	236	145
McDavid	263	138
Draisaitl	270	137
Pastrnak	246	137

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window 2 years:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	183	118
Draisaitl	192	112
Matthews	174	111
Pastrnak	164	102
McDavid	181	97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking at strictly this current season and last year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Matthews	106	74
Ovechkin	102	67
Pastrnak	98	64
Draisaitl	110	62
Kyle Connor	110	56

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah, he's starting to take the reins away from Ovechkin, and other than Pastrnak, the gap between his goal scoring any that of the others at the top end is doing nothing but widening.

All that these numbers do is prove that he is very close with multiple players.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

All that these numbers do is prove that he is very close with multiple players.

I agree, i (Bias) think hes the best of the bunch but OV, Pasta and the McDrai's are definitely contenders. Then there's always a chance a random "dark horse" guy lights it up and finds himself in the conversation.

 

[pcruz]

All that these numbers do is prove that he is very close with multiple players.

All those numbers show is that there are consistent people on it.
Of those people who show up consistently, they are all either slipping further away from Matthews, or finally dropping below him (Ovechkin).

If you were to graph these results (say in a goals/game point graph), it would show Matthews' points moving up consistently, while the others' either stagnate or slowly decline.
Except for Pastrnak.

 

[Rude Dog]

Just to clarify why Matthews is at the bottom of my personal ranking. Three things.

1) Unsustainable shooting percentage
2) Injury prone player
3) McDavid and Draisaitl duo

Do you have a fourth or fifth thing? You got one out of three though.

 

[abo9]

I agree, i (Bias) think hes the best of the bunch but OV, Pasta and the McDrai's are definitely contenders. Then there's always a chance a random "dark horse" guy lights it up and finds himself in the conversation.

I hate the Leafs, but think AM is the 2nd best goalscorer in the league behind Ovechkin. Imo he's not light years ahead of everyone ala Ovy though, that's just ridiculous things to say. But, he'll probably be the super consistent guy who's gonna have a bunch of top 5-10 finishes while other goalscorers come and go.

 

[Bedards Dad]

I mean, you can call it what you want but he's still shooting above his percentage this year. The other year he shot at 18.18% was a year with lower volume for him as well (comparable to this year's total to date) - his totals are:

279 shots 14.34%
187 shots 18.18%
251 shots 14.74%
290 shots 16.2%
148 shots 18.2%

The higher the volume the more the percentage evens out.

Ya that tends to happen in a players best scoring years. The only player in the last 10 years to win a rocket with a lower than career average shooting % was Ovi in 08/09, a year he put up 528 shots, nearly 150 more than his average. He did it again in 2015/16, but at that point in his career it was above his average.

Crosbys 2 rockets had him an above his average, same with Stamkos, Pastrnak, Perry, Lecavalier... In fact the only other player to ever in a rocket with a shooting % lower than their career average is Kovalchuk.

Call it what you want, he is putting up goals and doing it in a more constant fashion than ANY of the other top goal scorers.

 

[pcruz]

Quick graphical representation of the growth of these guys over the last 5 years.

This is of course, a visual representation of their goals per game from those charts I listed.

First if their combined goals per game for the last 5 seasons (including this one), and as you move to the right, the scope narrows down to 4 years, 3 years and then these past 2 combined into one.

Clearly shows that Ovechkin has been the most dominant goal scorer over this extended period of time, but that if you narrow the scope, he's stagnant while pastrnak and Matthews have taken real leaps forward.
Draisaitl had those 2 big years, but he's kind of regressed back more towards his mean.

 

[Bedards Dad]

All that these numbers do is prove that he is very close with multiple players.

What they show is he is easily above anyone not named Ovi. I firmly believe Ovi will be the best of all time, and is ahead of Matthews until Matthews takes the baton.

 

[The Podium]

Draisaitl and Pastrnak are both right there with AM34. Any of the three of them could win the Rocket in each season - so to say that "it isn't even close" is insane.

Draisaitl or Pastrnak could easily win. I am not saying Matthews is head and shoulders above other goalscorers in the league, or that hell run away with the Rocket for years like Ovi did. But with a sample of over 300 games we can easily say and factually support the notion that Matthews is the best of the rest after Ovi.

How would scoring more goals make Mcdavid a less effective player? We've been wanting him to shoot more for years, he always tries to pass and although he's been better at it this year, he still does not have that shooters mentality.

McDavid is most effective maintaining possession in the offensive zone drawing two defending players away from the slot and then always finds the open guy. If he started focusing more on goal scoring it would mean constantly driving the net or getting into the open ice to be set up. That just isnt McDavids game, he cant get lost in the shuffle since he always has guys tailing him and he is most effective while maintaining possession. Comparing that to Matthews or Ovi, there are times where they are hovering in the neutral zone and while their team cycles deep so they can get teed up while trailing late.

 

[abo9]

What they show is he is easily above anyone not named Ovi. I firmly believe Ovi will be the best of all time, and is ahead of Matthews until Matthews takes the baton.

The original comment that started the discussion was this:

Considering he actually missed 3 games as well it's really not close at all. He's truly on his own level as a goal scorer.

Obviously those numbers show that he's not "on his own level" or even that its "not close at all".

This year at this point of the season? Yes for sure. But overall? Ovechkin is still there, and the other guys are still there, albeit a little behind (not enormously as implied by "not close at all"). AM is notorious for starting red hot and this year is no exception.

 

[beowulf]

Of Toffoli somehow ends up winning this I'll be ecstatic since no Hab has won a trophy named of a Hab. I mean he is I think 8 behind at this point but with 4 games in hand on the Leafs so who knows....would take a miracle.

 

[Bedards Dad]

The original comment that started the discussion was this:



Obviously those numbers show that he's not "on his own level" or even that its "not close at all".

This year at this point of the season? Yes for sure. But overall? Ovechkin is still there, and the other guys are still there, albeit a little behind (not enormously as implied by "not close at all"). AM is notorious for starting red hot and this year is no exception.

Agreed with everything except the bolded. The only months AM has scored at a lower pace/month are months that had injuries.

Not including this year since there was no Oct to Dec:

Oct - 7.75 goals/month
Nov - 3.75 g/mn *less games played due to an injury
Dec - 7.75 g/mn
Jan - 5.5 g/mn
Feb - 7.75 - g/mn
Mar - 4.25 g/mn *less games due to covid
Apr - 2.3 g/mn *less games are played in April every year.
​

I plan on doing a g/pg per month at some point but haven't had the time. But this myth needs to die, he is not a hot starter, he just scores a lot and has had some injuries.

 

[Zybalto]

Well, since entering the league, Matthews compares to his peers thusly:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	347	200
Matthews	318	185
Pastrnak	321	171
McDavid	345	168
Draisaitl	352	166

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window a year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	265	167
Matthews	236	145
McDavid	263	138
Draisaitl	270	137
Pastrnak	246	137

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Shortening that window 2 years:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Ovechkin	183	118
Draisaitl	192	112
Matthews	174	111
Pastrnak	164	102
McDavid	181	97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looking at strictly this current season and last year:

Name	Games Played	Goals
Matthews	106	74
Ovechkin	102	67
Pastrnak	98	64
Draisaitl	110	62
Kyle Connor	110	56

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah, he's starting to take the reins away from Ovechkin, and other than Pastrnak, the gap between his goal scoring any that of the others at the top end is doing nothing but widening.

Getting rid of Babcock finally gave Matthews some more icetime was the biggest issue.

Goals/60 isnt that much greater but getting more icetime the 83 games so far under Keefe (from Nov.20th, 2019):

GP: 83
Goals: 60
Points: 99

 

[authentic]

It's comments like these that cause people to disparage Leafs fans so much. To say no one is close to a guy who is likely to win his first-ever Rocket while playing at the same time as the #1 goal scorer of all time and another two insanely elite talents over in Edmonton is absurd. Especially when the season he is likely to win he's only playing against six other teams all season long, most of which are pretty inept defensively.

Settle down there. Everything will be okay.

 

[authentic]

All that these numbers do is prove that he is very close with multiple players.

No, they don't. Matthews has had half the powerplay time of Ovechkin since entering the league. It used to be close, it's not any longer.

 

[McIce Whole]

Draisaitl or Pastrnak could easily win. I am not saying Matthews is head and shoulders above other goalscorers in the league, or that hell run away with the Rocket for years like Ovi did. But with a sample of over 300 games we can easily say and factually support the notion that Matthews is the best of the rest after Ovi.



McDavid is most effective maintaining possession in the offensive zone drawing two defending players away from the slot and then always finds the open guy. If he started focusing more on goal scoring it would mean constantly driving the net or getting into the open ice to be set up. That just isnt McDavids game, he cant get lost in the shuffle since he always has guys tailing him and he is most effective while maintaining possession. Comparing that to Matthews or Ovi, there are times where they are hovering in the neutral zone and while their team cycles deep so they can get teed up while trailing late.

Mcdavid's game is about driving to the net. Look at the injury he sustained that put him out long term. Both times he drove the net. Watch most of his goals, he is usually taking dmen on one on two or blowing right by them and going hard to the net every time. His game isn't based off cycling and hitting the open guy every time. That suits more of Drai's game. Mcdavid's game is about gaining the zone with speed, pushing defenders back (unless he blows right by them). He just doesn't have a tendency to always shoot, that's his issue. He can beat one defender, be on a two on one and force the pass rather than just take the shot.

Shooting more would not take away from Mcdavid's game whatsoever. It would add to it, make him harder to read and he's done a much better job this year. Hopefully he starts doing it more consistently.

 

[The Podium]

Mcdavid's game is about driving to the net. Look at the injury he sustained that put him out long term. Both times he drove the net. Watch most of his goals, he is usually taking dmen on one on two or blowing right by them and going hard to the net every time. His game isn't based off cycling and hitting the open guy every time. That suits more of Drai's game. Mcdavid's game is about gaining the zone with speed, pushing defenders back (unless he blows right by them). He just doesn't have a tendency to always shoot, that's his issue. He can beat one defender, be on a two on one and force the pass rather than just take the shot.

Shooting more would not take away from Mcdavid's game whatsoever. It would add to it, make him harder to read and he's done a much better job this year. Hopefully he starts doing it more consistently.

I didn’t say he doesn’t drive the net, I said he would have to do it constantly. I agree McDavid could shoot more, but for him to become a pure goal scorer and annual rocket winner, he would have to make some radical changes to his game that I don’t think would make him a better player.

He just plays the game a lot different than Ovi, Matthews, Stamkos, etc.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be the best goal scorer if he wanted to be, just I don’t think being the best goal scorer would make him a better player. I imagine his career to be similar to Crosby banking a couple rockets but overall choosing to be an all around offensive force.



This is what I’m talking about, 3 guys chase McDavid low leaving Draisaitl all alone high slot

 

[pcruz]

Agreed with everything except the bolded. The only months AM has scored at a lower pace/month are months that had injuries.

Not including this year since there was no Oct to Dec:

Oct - 7.75 goals/month
Nov - 3.75 g/mn *less games played due to an injury
Dec - 7.75 g/mn
Jan - 5.5 g/mn
Feb - 7.75 - g/mn
Mar - 4.25 g/mn *less games due to covid
Apr - 2.3 g/mn *less games are played in April every year.
​

I plan on doing a g/pg per month at some point but haven't had the time. But this myth needs to die, he is not a hot starter, he just scores a lot and has had some injuries.

Well, I did it for you.

Month	2016 GP	G	2017 GP	G	2018 GP	G	2019 GP	G	2021GP	G	Total GP	Total G	G/GP
October	9	6	12	9	11	10	14	11	9	6	55	42	.764
November	14	4	11	4	1	2	14	5	11	12	51	27	.529
December	12	8	7	4	13	7	13	11	13	6	58	36	.621
January	13	5	12	6	10	2	10	9	3	3	48	25	.521
February	14	8	11	5	15	9	15	9	0	0	55	31	.564
March	14	5	6	3	14	7	4	2	0	0	38	17	.447
April	6	4	3	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	13	7	.538

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[abo9]

Agreed with everything except the bolded. The only months AM has scored at a lower pace/month are months that had injuries.

Not including this year since there was no Oct to Dec:

Oct - 7.75 goals/month
Nov - 3.75 g/mn *less games played due to an injury
Dec - 7.75 g/mn
Jan - 5.5 g/mn
Feb - 7.75 - g/mn
Mar - 4.25 g/mn *less games due to covid
Apr - 2.3 g/mn *less games are played in April every year.
​

I plan on doing a g/pg per month at some point but haven't had the time. But this myth needs to die, he is not a hot starter, he just scores a lot and has had some injuries.

Well I gotta say thank you for sharing this. Is there an easy way to calculate goals and games per month, or did you do it manually? And you're right in that goals/game per month would make it more comparable since some months would have more games than others I imagine.

It was not a knock on him when I mentionned he had "red hot" starts. He actually still scores at an elite pace the rest of the year. But the stats also seem to suggest a similar trend every year:
2017-18: 7 goals in 8 first games. 27 goals in 54 games after (prorates to 41 goals)
2018-19: 10 goals in first 6 games. 27 goals in 62 games afterwards (prorates to 35 goals)
2019-20: 7 goals in first 7 games. 40 goals over next 63 games (prorates to 52 goals)
2020-2021: 18 goals in first 18 games. 9 in 18 to date. (prorates to 41 goals)

I mean, most goal scorers have streaks anyway.