Prospect Thread XXI
- Thread starter Nuckles
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The difference is I liked the progression I was seeing from Grabner ... at each stage he increased his production over the previous year. Yes his camps were underwhelming but then he'd show well in the regular seasons. Even though he was streaky, he balanced his cold streaks with his hot ones. I honestly don't know what to make of Jensen. Yes, his SEL season was strong but I feel like that is the only time he has shown the pedigree required to be an NHL scorer. His OHL numbers were fine in his draft year but disappointing in his draft +1 year. And his AHL numbers, for the most part, have been non-existent. Yes I realize I am stat scouting and I understand the inherent flaws in that, but when I did watch him at the prospects camps I came away more impressed by younger players like Horvat, Shinkaruk, and even Cassels. I am by no means "giving up" on him ... whatever that means, since my support means absolutely nothing to his development - but I don't see the signs of progression that 90% of top 6 players show by their draft +3 year. I saw much better progression with Grabner and he is - according to most posters on this board - a "marginal" NHLer who can only succeed on a marginal Islanders team and would not stick on a strong Canucks squad. I don't follow how Jensen who is tracking worse than that holds so much promise for people here. Hope I'm wrong but that's just how I see it at the moment.
This has been discussed so many times.
It's crazy to me how he can be the 3rd leading scorer of a team that was in a clear down spell (look at their entire rosters regression in points). When 100 point guys regress to 65 point guys, I'm not sure you can knock all the prospects on that team.
Either way, I'm not excusing the lack of production from Jensen, but I'm also not writing him off.
From MS' post:
Still pretty good odds to me. 1 in 5.
I look at a guy like Pat Sharp or Matt Read, they didn't get there right away, but they're there now.
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Tiranis, good pick up on the overager number for London. I really don't know where they're going to find the scoring infusion it looks like they need.
avelanch
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grabs hasn't scored since the season opener and is pointless in 12 games, he's on his coldest streak to date, i'm not going to imagine the nightmare of 2 cold players chilling each other into oblivion...
avelanch
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Bleach Clean
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Horvat and Shinkaruk looked better because many cited them as being better prospects. For that, quality comes into play more than age. Cassels came out of nowhere though...
Anyway, I suppose it is subjective because I feel Jensen has shown far better in lesser leagues than Grabner ever did. Specifically, his SEL stint. Something Grabner didn't match (or rather, wasn't afforded the opportunity to depending on how you look at it).
The 3rd year development snapshot is interesting. I value production in the OHL more than I do in the WHL because my impression is that it translates better to higher leagues. Where WHL production tends to be more hit or miss IMO. In that sense, I am pretty comfortable with Jensen being PPG in his 1st and 2nd NA years in that league, compared to Grabner being .5PPG in his first NA year, 50/67 in his 2nd year and finally PPG in his last. Jensen adapted better to NA hockey quicker than Grabner did.
Then it comes down to the SEL stint vs. Grabner's first AHL year. My assertion here is that Jensen was more impressive. Grabner was good, but Jensen, with a crappy AIK squad did some damage over there.
Now up to this point, who is better? My money is clearly on Jensen. It's only after this point when Jensen fails to re-adapt to the NA ice that this gets murky at all. So now does the recency of information regarding his 3rd year overrule what he did in the 3 years prior? If it does, then I could see the trepidation. For me, it doesn't. The longer track record still has Jensen showing good promise overall.
My god, these early OHL games are high scoring..
Belleville down 8-4 to Ottawa.
Kitchener down 6-5 to Erie.
Mississauga down 9-3 to Guelph.
All games are still in session in the third period.
Unfortunate that our prospects are the ones getting beat down.
Belleville down 8-4 to Ottawa.
Kitchener down 6-5 to Erie.
Mississauga down 9-3 to Guelph.
All games are still in session in the third period.
Unfortunate that our prospects are the ones getting beat down.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
reiterate an earlier post.
D sedin, Naslund and Jensen seem to have similar profiles, play a similar game, and Sedin and Naslund did nothing of notice in NA until they were about 26 (Naslund got off to a hot start at age 23 one year, but got traded by the end of the season in one of the most lop sided trades (determined after the fact of course)).
will VCR fans be patient enough for yet another unsure prospect get to his physical maturity? In particular, nordic players seem to take longer to step up in the NHL.
D sedin, Naslund and Jensen seem to have similar profiles, play a similar game, and Sedin and Naslund did nothing of notice in NA until they were about 26 (Naslund got off to a hot start at age 23 one year, but got traded by the end of the season in one of the most lop sided trades (determined after the fact of course)).
will VCR fans be patient enough for yet another unsure prospect get to his physical maturity? In particular, nordic players seem to take longer to step up in the NHL.
Just A Bit Outside
Playoffs??!
- Mar 6, 2010
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Has nothing to do with the fans; will management be able to wait till he's 26?
I say no.
If it takes Jensen that long to develop it will likely be somewhere other than Vancouver.
McEneny picked up a primary assist on the PP to tie the game up.
- edit -
End result of the games:
Belleville 4 Ottawa 9
Gaunce - 1 assist
Subban - 1 goal
Kitchener 6 Erie 9
McEneny - 1assist
and for the heck of it
Guelph 9 Mississauga 3
- edit -
End result of the games:
Belleville 4 Ottawa 9
Gaunce - 1 assist
Subban - 1 goal
Kitchener 6 Erie 9
McEneny - 1assist
and for the heck of it
Guelph 9 Mississauga 3
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That's fair. It is his post-SEL performance that gives me concerns as one would expect him to build on that experience, not flounder as he has. And I tend to put more weight on recent performances since that is how I see a prospects progression - like a funnel where as they move on to higher and higher levels they either adapt or they fail. x% of junior scorers succeed as AHL scorers. x% of AHL scorers succeed as NHL scorers. Thus when I see a player who was moderately successful at the OHL level struggle at the AHL level - even early on, I have concerns. It doesn't mean I've given up on him, but it definitely shades my expectations of them. If Jensen was a wildly productive junior player like Shinkaruk I'd probably give him a longer leash, but I don't think I saw him as a blue chip prospect to begin with and nothing since has made me feel different.
BeardyCanuck03
@BeardyCanuck03
Naslund was also 5'11 and a pure skill player at a time when the NHL was descending into the height of clutch and grab hockey. His issues were physical strength and confidence (iirc he struggled mightly with his confidence early on).
Jensen has better size and strength than Naslund at that age and while the NHL is certainly not any higher scoring than in Naslund's era, there are definitely more young kids breaking in as 18-20 years olds than back in the mid-90's. If you are correct and it takes Jensen another 6 years to make it as a fully time NHLer (approx. 2019), I don't think it will be the Canucks either ...
The team is a powerhouse this year, scoring the most goals in the league by a wide margin.
If Gaunce is going to be traded to a team like that it will definitely help out his offensive game, and I'd be all for that.
BeardyCanuck03
@BeardyCanuck03
I can tell you right now if he does get traded there, I will start calling him Guance.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
No i am hoping they give him 2 years in the AHL, and if he doesn't produce they give him a league minimum when his ELC runs out. At 23 he shows signs with 12 - 15 goals and at 25 he is chipping in 20+. I expect to see a steady progression like the Sedins and Naslund had. He is not exactly the same as them, but he could be a 35 - 40 goal scorer in 6 - 7 years.
Daniel had a 20 goal season in the NHL by the time he was Jensen's age. Not even remotely comparable. Jensen is a long shot to even make the NHL, let alone be productive.
And didn't reach 20 again until 2005-2006 after the lockout (age 25).
Daniel was a much better prospect and had a lot more opportunity (poor roster) and a longer leash (top 3 pick), but it still took him 4 seasons to be a legitimate 2nd line threat in the NHL (whilst being spoon fed PP time and such).
This longshot talk is way to premature for me. I'll refrain from judgements until we have a better body of work to make the judgements (at least this seasons end).
We're still talking about a kid with under 30 games of North American pro experience, and are already willing to toss him to the scrap heap, seems a touch early for that.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
Well lets put this in persective. Yes, thats true, but he also was given full time 3rd line minutes, and he didn't have another 20 goal year for 5 years, and most of HFboards were screaming to trade the twins for a bag of pucks.
Jensen has not been given a real chance, and he is very young. I want to see him given 3 years yet, with full time in Utica to see if he progresses. I don't want to trade him for a rental. I suspect he has a much higher upside than grabner ever did.
Free Edler
Enjoy retirement, boys.
Daniel was also drafted second overall and played in (at the time) the best men's league outside the NHL. Silly to compare him and Jensen.
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