Prospect Thread XXI

[NuxFan09]

Daniel had a 20 goal season in the NHL by the time he was Jensen's age. Not even remotely comparable. Jensen is a long shot to even make the NHL, let alone be productive.

This. Come on, let's not compare Jensen to Naslund and Daniel.

Jensen is struggling mightily right now and has generally been a huge disappointment so far this season. Are people not allowed to say the facts without being jumped on?

For the people grasping at straws, save your energy and just admit he should be producing in the AHL right now. Doesn't mean he's a bust, but it doesn't change the expectations we should have of him either. MS is one of the best posters we have here at analyzing players - he evidently knows his hockey - and even he said that Jensen is starting to become a concern.

 

[StIllmatic]

This. Come on, let's not compare Jensen to Naslund and Daniel.

Jensen is struggling mightily right now and has generally been a huge disappointment so far this season. Are people not allowed to say the facts without being jumped on?

For the people grasping at straws, save your energy and just admit he should be producing in the AHL right now. Doesn't mean he's a bust, but it doesn't change the expectations we should have of him either. MS is one of the best posters we have here at analyzing players - he evidently knows his hockey - and even he said that Jensen is starting to become a concern.

I am pretty sure MS said this from a purely stats perspective. Atleast that's what I got from his post. He hasn't done his usual post game AHL posts so I don't think he has had the time to watch Utica this season. I don't like judging any players off of 8 regular season games especially when they're playing well defensively, putting in effort, and getting a lot of shots. We all know Jensen has an amazing shot, I'm not worried yet. He will come around, he just needs time.

Let's not forget who is centre is either, hopefully O'Reilly fixes that problem.

 

[NuxFan09]

I am pretty sure MS said this from a purely stats perspective. Atleast that's what I got from his post. He hasn't done his usual post game AHL posts so I don't think he has had the time to watch Utica this season. I don't like judging any players off of 8 regular season games especially when they're playing well defensively, putting in effort, and getting a lot of shots. We all know Jensen has an amazing shot, I'm not worried yet. He will come around, he just needs time.

Let's not forget who is centre is either, hopefully O'Reilly fixes that problem.

I hope he does get to play with O'Reilly. Now that would intrigue me. O'Reilly is a great producer and playmaker at the AHL level. Grenier can stick with Pelletier because those two have chemistry anyway.

 

[arsmaster*]

MS is one of the best posters we have here at analyzing players - he evidently knows his hockey - and even he said that Jensen is starting to become a concern.

MS being a good poster is all well and good, but MS likes to view things in comparison to others. He's one of my fav's too.

He always mentions players and their odds based on production. I can't say either way, as I'm not watching the games, but I've seen enough of Jensen to know he has the skills and ability to play in the NHL and contribute.

The AHL isn't peewee hockey, skilled guys don't take the puck end to end and score every shift. The Comets are barely scoring 2 goals a game, yes it'd be nice if Jensen was helping that, but one player can't do it himself.

The people watching the games are mentioning positives more than negatives right now, so I'll take that for now.

 

[NuxFan09]

MS being a good poster is all well and good, but MS likes to view things in comparison to others. He's one of my fav's too.

He always mentions players and their odds based on production. I can't say either way, as I'm not watching the games, but I've seen enough of Jensen to know he has the skills and ability to play in the NHL and contribute.

The AHL isn't peewee hockey, skilled guys don't take the puck end to end and score every shift. The Comets are barely scoring 2 goals a game, yes it'd be nice if Jensen was helping that, but one player can't do it himself.

The people watching the games are mentioning positives more than negatives right now, so I'll take that for now.

From what I've seen/listened to, there definitely are positives in Jensen's play right now. He's involved in the offense, he's getting chances and putting shots on net. That's about it though. At some point we have to move beyond giving players a pat on the back for the positives and we have to expect production. Otherwise, nobody can blame anyone for having doubts about his future impact at the NHL level.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

From what I've seen/listened to, there definitely are positives in Jensen's play right now. He's involved in the offense, he's getting chances and putting shots on net. That's about it though. At some point we have to move beyond giving players a pat on the back for the positives and we have to expect production. Otherwise, nobody can blame anyone for having doubts about his future impact at the NHL level.

As well there comes a point where you need to get past his draft position and evaluate his play based on his play. If he were picked in the third round would opinions of his performance be the same? His draft position matters, because it is information that is useful for prognostication, but it becomes less and less relevant with each game he plays. Or doesn't play, as the case may be.

I do not have an opinion on Jensen, but frankly I've been following this discussion for some time and find the arguments on the MS side to be much more convincing.

 

[CanaFan]

MS being a good poster is all well and good, but MS likes to view things in comparison to others. He's one of my fav's too.

He always mentions players and their odds based on production. I can't say either way, as I'm not watching the games, but I've seen enough of Jensen to know he has the skills and ability to play in the NHL and contribute.

The AHL isn't peewee hockey, skilled guys don't take the puck end to end and score every shift. The Comets are barely scoring 2 goals a game, yes it'd be nice if Jensen was helping that, but one player can't do it himself.

The people watching the games are mentioning positives more than negatives right now, so I'll take that for now.

The fact that the Comets are struggling to score is certainly a factor to consider, but I also consider that scoring at the NHL level is even harder to do. Ultimately if Jensen isn't able to help the scoring problem in Utica - such as with his supposedly pro-level shot - I don't see what it is that is going to translate so well at the even-higher NHL level. Now to be totally fair, it has only been 8 games so I'm not going to say he has clearly shown one way or the other in the AHL. I am willing to give him the entire season to rebound from his injury and find some chemistry on one of the lines. But my feeling is if he doesn't find some scoring success by the end of this season, then his odds of being an NHL scorer at any point in the future are quite low (and they may have been low to begin with). This is his year to show SOMETHING at the AHL level. Grabner scored 22 goals at 20, Kassian had 15 in 29 games at 20, and neither guy is a top 6 lock yet either. I can't think of too many players that don't show _some_ success early on that still go on to be a top 6 player in the NHL. Role players and bottom 6 guys are different; their offense comes slower and they generally provide other benefits. But as much as Jensen may play decent defensively and work hard, if he can't translate that into pucks in the net - his raison d'etre - then he isn't going to make it.

In short: Give the guy the rest of the season, and if he produces then he's on track. But I'm not willing to buy the idea that he can take 2-3 years to find his game at the AHL level and still be considered a legit top 6 prospect. The NHL isn't that forgiving and other players - Shinkaruk, Cassels - will have possibly passed him on the depth charts by that time.

 

[StIllmatic]

From what I've seen/listened to, there definitely are positives in Jensen's play right now. He's involved in the offense, he's getting chances and putting shots on net. That's about it though. At some point we have to move beyond giving players a pat on the back for the positives and we have to expect production. Otherwise, nobody can blame anyone for having doubts about his future impact at the NHL level.

People have also commented on his backchecking and him playing a two way game which while battling hard which should put down any concerns about effort.

 

[Waveburner]

I'm surprised people are so completely rosy on Jensen's SEL season last year. I'm aware of Jensen's 17 goals and how they stack against other 19 y/o forward prospects. But is it really that wise to be completely ignoring the 6 piddly assists he managed in 50 games? I mean those are stay-at-home d-man type assist numbers. I know context matters, but really, that is inexcusable for a forward getting regular top six minutes and powerplay time.

To me right now it looks like this maybe should have been a red flag about Jensen's ability to co-exist in a team structured offense. I'm not pretending to have been able to predict this, just looking at it from a hindsight perspective. Who knows though at this point. Hopefully Jensen starts to heat up soon and all this discussion looks silly, but I'd be lying if I said I was optimistic.

 

[opendoor]

I'm surprised people are so completely rosy on Jensen's SEL season last year. I'm aware of Jensen's 17 goals and how they stack against other 19 y/o forward prospects. But is it really that wise to be completely ignoring the 6 piddly assists he managed in 50 games? I mean those are stay-at-home d-man type assist numbers. I know context matters, but really, that is inexcusable for a forward getting regular top six minutes and powerplay time.

To me right now it looks like this maybe should have been a red flag about Jensen's ability to co-exist in a team structured offense. I'm not pretending to have been able to predict this, just looking at it from a hindsight perspective. Who knows though at this point. Hopefully Jensen starts to heat up soon and all this discussion looks silly, but I'd be lying if I said I was optimistic.

I don't know if it's that big of an issue in and of itself. Hornqvist had similar numbers (though not quite to the same degree) and he turned out OK. In fact, Hornqvist's career trajectory is one of the reasons why I'm not entirely pessimistic about Jensen right now:

Age 18-19: 5 goals, 7 pts in 47 SEL games
Age 19-20: 23 goals, 34 pts in 49 SEL games
Age 20-21: 18 goals, 30 pts in 53 SEL games

Only at age 21 did he get any AHL/NHL time at which point he put up pretty good AHL numbers:

Age 21-22: 59 pt pace in the AHL and 21 pt pace in the NHL

And since then he's been a pretty consistent 25 goal scorer in the NHL.

That's not to say Jensen will ever become Hornqvist (or even an NHLer), but I'm not too worried just yet given that he's only 20 years old still.

 

[vanuck]

People have also commented on his backchecking and him playing a two way game which while battling hard which should put down any concerns about effort.

If there's one reason I could see him sticking in the NHL until he starts producing (at a rate people expect of him), it's this. Didn't look out of place last year in the games he played with the Canucks either, I thought, which was encouraging.

 

[fancouver]

Cole Cassels was off to a hot start, but production has slowed down to 28 pts in 24 GP.

Meanwhile, Bo Horvat continues to impress why he is a top 10 pick with 28 pts in 19 GP when he was previously behind Cassels.

Both doing great, Horvat should make the team next year. Cassels still has a good chance to make the Canucks in 3-4 years as a scappy 3rd liner.

 

[ChilliBilly]

But as much as Jensen may play decent defensively and work hard, if he can't translate that into pucks in the net - his raison d'etre - then he isn't going to make it.

In short: Give the guy the rest of the season, and if he produces then he's on track. But I'm not willing to buy the idea that he can take 2-3 years to find his game at the AHL level and still be considered a legit top 6 prospect. The NHL isn't that forgiving and other players - Shinkaruk, Cassels - will have possibly passed him on the depth charts by that time.

I am the one advocating the hardest on here for Jensen. But I have already dropped him way below Shinkaruk and prob Cassels as well.What I don't want to do is give up on him, or throw him in as an extra in trade aka White.

 

[CanaFan]

I am the one advocating the hardest on here for Jensen. But I have already dropped him way below Shinkaruk and prob Cassels as well.What I don't want to do is give up on him, or throw him in as an extra in trade aka White.

Ya I'm not in favour of trading him either - IMO we've given up on prospects too early in the past - I'm more stating why I'm not as high on him as others. At this point he doesn't have much trade value anyway so might as well keep him and hope for the best.

 

[Hansen]

Jensen is head and shoulders above Cassels at this point, he has the potential to become a very good 2nd line winger, he's had a slow start but by all accounts he should be getting way more points than he has and he's snakebitten. Once he gets a couple goals the rest will come along.

 

[denkiteki]

Jensen is head and shoulders above Cassels at this point, he has the potential to become a very good 2nd line winger, he's had a slow start but by all accounts he should be getting way more points than he has and he's snakebitten. Once he gets a couple goals the rest will come along.

I agree that Jensen is ahead of Cassels right now and he should put it together sooner or later. He brings a unique ability (or at least he should) that 'nucks lack and that's finishing. Of course he's missing a golden chance right now because if he was actually finishing in the AHL, he would be getting a call up right now as we need someone who can finish!!! Problem with Jensen might be the numbers game... he's taking too long to put it together and HS looked much better than him in the pre-season and sooner or later HS looks poised to make the team. Our team only has limited number of spot for pure offensive players and it looks like HS is ahead of him for one of those spots. Add the fact our wing position (at least on paper) seem to be pretty full the next few years, Jensen needs to improve a lot more to make the team.

On the flip side, we are a bit weaker at center (at least beyond this year until BG/Horvat comes along... also both can be moved to the wing too) and that gives Cassel a positional advantage. Only H. Sedin and Kesler (who is actually playing the wing too) are locked up long term where as on the wing, Burrows, Hansen, Higgins, D. Sedin... and ZK appears to still in the top 9 plans. That leaves 1 possible spot (assuming Booth gets bought out) next season for a top 9 winger but 2 possible spot for centers.

 

[Lonny Bohonos]

Jensen is head and shoulders above Cassels at this point, he has the potential to become a very good 2nd line winger, he's had a slow start but by all accounts he should be getting way more points than he has and he's snakebitten. Once he gets a couple goals the rest will come along.

Head and shoulder? Really?

 

[Wilch]

Head and shoulder? Really?

He is three inches taller.

 

[avelanch]

so, about half a head then... maybe a quarter of a head?

 

[arsmaster*]

Cole Cassels?

I don't think Cole's ultimate upside is even a top 6 player. No chance he's ahead of Jensen for me.

Decent 2-way prospect, whose offensive has been a pleasant surprise.

 

[Golden Boy]

I want Schredder back

 

[PhilMick]

Cole Cassels?

I don't think Cole's ultimate upside is even a top 6 player. No chance he's ahead of Jensen for me.

Decent 2-way prospect, whose offensive has been a pleasant surprise.

Yeah but Cassels is 1.17 points per game atm, Jensen only got 1 point per game with Oshawa, so Cassels = surefire pro, Jensen = guy working at skate shop 3 months from now.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Yeah but Cassels is 1.17 points per game atm, Jensen only got 1 point per game with Oshawa, so Cassels = surefire pro, Jensen = guy working at skate shop 3 months from now.

Maybe Jensen can get into acting and play Hans' grandson from The Mighty Ducks in an upcoming movie where Joshua Jackson takes over a lowly team of hockey misfits from Vancouver's lower east side and turns them into champions.

 

[PhilMick]

Maybe Jensen can get into acting and play Hans' grandson from The Mighty Ducks in an upcoming movie where Joshua Jackson takes over a lowly team of hockey misfits from Vancouver's lower east side and turns them into champions.

Nice.

Fluff piece on Liberati: http://www.nugget.ca/2013/11/19/battalion-pick-up-versatile-blueliner At least gives the impression he'll get some ice time there.

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

bleh...delete this