Prospect Info: Prospect and Marlies Thread: 2017 - 2018 (continued) Part II

[Boutette]

For Korostelev, it depends on whether he's willing to come here to fight for his job on the Marlies, on an AHL deal, or will prefer to go somewhere with more certainty, like the KHL or another team. I doubt he gets an ELC from anyone, but he could get a guaranteed AHL job.

Marlies can not offer that unless they are going really young or move some guys like Timashov or Moore in deals this offseason.

Well, our St. John's ECHL team is going to need a bunch of players next year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Well, our St. John's ECHL team is going to need a bunch of players next year.

Probably will be mostly ECHL fillers like every other team.

I do wish we could get a bunch of young guys in there though, and support them with good ECHL vets.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Probably will be mostly ECHL fillers like every other team.

I do wish we could get a bunch of young guys in there though, and support them with good ECHL vets.

Wouldn't a team full of youngsters in the ECHL basically mean everyone we drafted goes bust and has no fallback educational route?

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Wouldn't a team full of youngsters in the ECHL basically mean everyone we drafted goes bust and has no fallback educational route?

Basically yes. The ECHL has a salary cap for some stupid reason so the most you can pay a guy is $30,000 a year approximately or fit under a salary cap of about $700,000... If it didn't have one we could really flex our financial might and offer a bunch of junior standouts huge salaries compared to other teams and build a dominating team with crazy depth for the Marlies.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If it didn't have one we could really flex our financial might and offer a bunch of junior standouts huge salaries compared to other teams and build a dominating team with crazy depth for the Marlies.

What junior standouts aren't getting drafted and are going to dominate the AHL? Which of our drafted stand-out prospects in the AHL are you going to replace with these ECHL junior standouts?

Leafs are already building a dominant AHL team by bringing in proven AHL vets/mentors on exceptionally high-paid AHL contracts to insulate our standout prospects.

Not sure how much more the ECHL can contribute here, but I'd prefer to keep a focus on developing young players who could actually play for the NHL club before they hit their late 20's.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Wouldn't a team full of youngsters in the ECHL basically mean everyone we drafted goes bust and has no fallback educational route?

If the ECHL does not turn out for them, they can go back to the CIS still. For any CHLer, that's the only route they have anyways. Some guys may just end up taking that route over the ECHL, so the Marlies would need to find guys willing to actually come this route (like Mason Marchment, or the other AHL contracts the Marlies picked up). A lot of these CHLers also take University courses during the last three years of their eligibility as well, so they are already well into their degree before they even leave the CHL. They would just need to take classes over the summer or something to finish it up, which is often what any young player does.

Also, the idea would be to try and get these young guys on AHL deals if possible. I do not know the limit on the number of AHL deals you can have, but there is no maximum salary cap in the AHL (only a minimum), which works well for the Marlies since they have a ton of money they can spend if the right player is available. Any AHL contract player sent to the ECHL only counts as $525 against the ECHL cap, which is really good since the average is $560 and the really good ones make as much as $800. Since the hope would be those young guys are the best players on the team, that gives a lot of wiggle room for the ECHL team to get other good ECHL players with higher salaries to supplement.

I am by no means an expert on the ECHL or AHL CBA (not even the NHL CBA), but there's probably some way you can get a good stable of young guys down there. At the very least the Marlies do not need to worry about a cap to get in good talent. The only thing is that if they do end up making more than $525 a week and are sent to the ECHL, the Marlies have to eat the difference, but that's hardly a noticeable cost given it is an investment into the development of guys who could become great players for them. The Marlies can just open up the checkbook to make it worth a prospect's while to come here. After that, they just need to worry about any AHL contract limit, but otherwise they can bring in as many AHL contracts as they wish and stash them in the ECHL, since there will be more than enough room in the ~$13,000 weekly ECHL salary cap for the talent (ECHL teams need 20 players in total, so if all 20 of them were AHL contracts, which they won't be, they'd still have $2500 extra per week to use).

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What junior standouts aren't getting drafted and are going to dominate the AHL? Which of our drafted stand-out prospects in the AHL are you going to replace with these ECHL junior standouts?

Leafs are already building a dominant AHL team by bringing in proven AHL vets/mentors on exceptionally high-paid AHL contracts to insulate our standout prospects.

Not sure how much more the ECHL can contribute here, but I'd prefer to keep a focus on developing young players who could actually play for the NHL club before they hit their late 20's.

The goal would be to target certain OAer's who may not be good enough for ELC's but could still have the potential to develop into good AHLers or even NHLers if given a chance and some developmental time. For example, Mason Marchment came in, played in the ECHL last year, is playing in the AHL this year and actually could earn an ELC. He may be part of the reason why Kerby Rychel was expendable. It may not seem significant in the long run, but you may get the odd NHLer here or there, or get a lot of good role players in the AHL who may be able to save you a few contracts and have a strong familiarity with the system to teach new, more important prospects, that journeymen coming in for a few years may not have.

Byron Froese turned from an ECHLer to our 4C for a full year. He's nothing super special, essentially a AAAA player, but he has 100 games of NHL experience under his belt now. Justin Holl was another one and has helped so many of our good young defensive prospects, including Dermott, acclimate to the AHL. Look at where Dermott is now? Some argue Holl should be in the NHL right now.

It may be a good opportunity for guys like Korostelev who has a ton of potential but lost some years due to injury. Maybe he's not worth an ELC just yet, but having him still around and essentially treated like a legit prospect could help him put things together. Then you not only get a valuable prospect out of essentially nothing, but you get a guy who can be fast-tracked more than a typical UFA since he has familiarity with the system.

In today's NHL, getting any sort of edge, whether it is finding cheap depth, valuable mentors or saving contracts, helps you in the big picture.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The goal would be to target certain OAer's who may not be good enough for ELC's but could still have the potential to develop into good AHLers or even NHLers if given a chance and some developmental time. For example, Mason Marchment came in, played in the ECHL last year, is playing in the AHL this year and actually could earn an ELC. He may be part of the reason why Kerby Rychel was expendable. It may not seem significant in the long run, but you may get the odd NHLer here or there, or get a lot of good role players in the AHL who may be able to save you a few contracts and have a strong familiarity with the system to teach new, more important prospects, that journeymen coming in for a few years may not have.

Byron Froese turned from an ECHLer to our 4C for a full year. He's nothing super special, essentially a AAAA player, but he has 100 games of NHL experience under his belt now. Justin Holl was another one and has helped so many of our good young defensive prospects, including Dermott, acclimate to the AHL. Look at where Dermott is now? Some argue Holl should be in the NHL right now.

It may be a good opportunity for guys like Korostelev who has a ton of potential but lost some years due to injury. Maybe he's not worth an ELC just yet, but having him still around and essentially treated like a legit prospect could help him put things together. Then you not only get a valuable prospect out of essentially nothing, but you get a guy who can be fast-tracked more than a typical UFA since he has familiarity with the system.

In today's NHL, getting any sort of edge, whether it is finding cheap depth, valuable mentors or saving contracts, helps you in the big picture.

Thanks for the reply. I do understand the value of having mentors in the AHL. I'm just a little confused of the need to groom them on our ECHL squad. At that level, the player is basically free to go anywhere so we're not exactly gaining any kind of rights to them. We could groom them and they go to another AHL squad, just as another squad can groom them and they come to our AHL squad. Holl and Froese were acquired this way.

I see there could be some value in system and familiarity, and maybe an overall club culture thing potentially increasing the chances that some choice ECHL standouts will sign with our AHL club and continue their journey to maybe the NHL.

 

[Duke16]

I'm interested to see how the Middleton/Mattinen situation plays out. They have both made strides, but are they really worth it? Just one year ago we let Desrocher walk (who was better than both), I think Lindgren and Gordeev are better prospects than both and there is always the possibility of signing further along Euro/NCAA D. It will be interesting to track for sure.

 

[highslot]

weird that we haven't been able to get a goalie out of the system, but that we have that sort of AHL success even if GAA has a lot to do with how good your team is

wasn't a fan of letting bibeau go. had a solid game in the show and amazing agility. the problem was only in his head imo, which might have been cured with age. i would have thrown him in the echl. better tracking than sparks though.

 

[AppsSyl]

I would love to buy low on Alex Nylander from Buffalo, whose stock has fallen. People forget he is just turned 20 and is in AHL. I think with our player development, and him seeing the work Willy is putting in to continually improve, would help him reach his potential. The kid has a ton of talent.

What do you think it would take at this point to get him from Buffalo?

 

[Pyromaniac]

Grundstrom with another goal. This is what his last 8 games looks like...

1G
1G
1G
1A
1A
1 GWG shootout (iirc this is credited as a goal in the SHL)
2G
2G

Another gem of a pick. Sweden is like a well we can keep going back to for talent, a big kudos to Thommie Bergman who is a pretty big part of our success there.

 

[saltming]

I would love to buy low on Alex Nylander from Buffalo, whose stock has fallen. People forget he is just turned 20 and is in AHL. I think with our player development, and him seeing the work Willy is putting in to continually improve, would help him reach his potential. The kid has a ton of talent.

What do you think it would take at this point to get him from Buffalo?

I wouldn't do it unless it was really cheap as I see his issue as that he doesn't want to play a team game. Is that a development thing or a mental thing?
I agree the talent is there but I would not want to sacrifice much to take the risk

 

[AppsSyl]

I wouldn't do it unless it was really cheap as I see his issue as that he doesn't want to play a team game. Is that a development thing or a mental thing?
I agree the talent is there but I would not want to sacrifice much to take the risk

...or a Buffalo thing...lol.

 

[saltming]

...or a Buffalo thing...lol.

Lol it could be.
Maybe being with his big brother could help?

 

[AppsSyl]

Lol it could be.
Maybe being with his big brother could help?

Possibly having Willy in the organization could be motivator. There is a lot of talent there, and we seem to hold players a lot more accountable in our organization. More structure and accountability could be what he needs.

 

[saltming]

Possibly having Willy in the organization could be motivator. There is a lot of talent there, and we seem to hold players a lot more accountable in our organization. More structure and accountability could be what he needs.

In the beginning the brothers did play similar though I've always thought Willie was better as he distributed the puck much much better. Alex has a shoot first mentality and likes to make the play to find the shot and he hasn't been able to translate that to the pro game yet so unless he figures out how to find the open space without the puck more often I'm not big on his future.
Can that be taught? Yes but he needs to be willing to learn.
This is all just my opinion though

 

[LeafChief]

Grundstrom is absolutely killing it.

 

[Jeypic]

I don't see the Leivo comparison at all:
- Leivo's biggest knock is skating & Bracco's a very good skater
- Leivo's big & Bracco's small
- Leivo is a terrific possession player who thrives in dirty areas & Bracco is more of a perimeter player that gets inside with drag moves or passes
- Leivo's best usage is offensive zone, but doesn't need sheltering (can play against good players and is good at hemming the puck in the forward zone, isn't quite as good when it's in all 3 zones because he's not fast), Bracco had some serious defensive question marks as to whether he'd make it in pro hockey at all but seems to be at least getting by
- Leivo is sort of shoot first with a great release, Bracco is more of a passer who scores from below the dots when he toe drags inside

Marner is a much better stylistic comparison for Bracco - both are undersized pass-first wingers with terrific edges, good vision/hands/creativity

and I will disagree that we don't have room to be able to shelter guys that need it, JVR & Bozak get that usage today. That's one of the benefits of having great depth, you can let guys play to their strengths

i was trying to keep it simple. They are both offensive wingers less elite then the ones we currently roster... and are likely to endure similar struggles making the team because of that.

Stylistically yes, marner is a better comparison to bracco. But skill level, leivo is the better comparison. Marner is the reason why players like bracco and leivo will struggle to make the team.

 

[Randy Randerson]

i was trying to keep it simple. They are both offensive wingers less elite then the ones we currently roster... and are likely to endure similar struggles making the team because of that.

Stylistically yes, marner is a better comparison to bracco. But skill level, leivo is the better comparison. Marner is the reason why players like bracco and leivo will struggle to make the team.

I don't think you're giving either Leivo or Bracco credit for their upside. Bracco was ranked as a 1st rounder in lots of places even considering his size & defensive concerns because of how high his perceived ceiling is - he's a risky prospect who will make it on his offense if he does (which brings us back to the original point, he doesn't need to be a PK specialist type defensive player to make the NHL) and his offense could carry him to allstar games in the best case scenario, big big ceiling

Leivo I'll also disagree on - he's looking like a possession machine that will help whether his offense is going or not. I have a hard time seeing him being less than a 20/20 player with good linemates and offensive usage, and don't think that JVR type offensive numbers are out of the question - his offensive rates per 60 are in that range, just gets less TOI and worse QoT than the JVR echelon

I'd reserve judgement on both until they have a chance to shot what they are

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm interested to see how the Middleton/Mattinen situation plays out. They have both made strides, but are they really worth it? Just one year ago we let Desrocher walk (who was better than both), I think Lindgren and Gordeev are better prospects than both and there is always the possibility of signing further along Euro/NCAA D. It will be interesting to track for sure.

Middleton>Desrocher>Mattinen I think.

But then again who knows... I just want to know what the team is thinking when they draft these guys and do not sign them, because it is not like they are not developing as expected. Do these guys need to go a PPG like Nielsen to get any consideration? Then really why make any of these fridge picks because it's pretty damn clear that Middleton, Mattinen, Desrocher and Gordeev were (or will not) likely never going to come close to those numbers but would become high end shut down defensemen in the OHL... So far, all but Gordeev have failed to disappoint in that area.

We will see. The OHL playoffs may change management's minds on some, but I think Middleton gets signed and Mattinen does not, but we'd give him a rookie camp invite if he wants it.

 

[Menzinger]

What junior standouts aren't getting drafted and are going to dominate the AHL? Which of our drafted stand-out prospects in the AHL are you going to replace with these ECHL junior standouts?

Leafs are already building a dominant AHL team by bringing in proven AHL vets/mentors on exceptionally high-paid AHL contracts to insulate our standout prospects.

Not sure how much more the ECHL can contribute here, but I'd prefer to keep a focus on developing young players who could actually play for the NHL club before they hit their late 20's.

By it’s not really an either-or situation though.

Leafs have the resources to use multiple Pathways. Even if this Echl stuff does nothing but produce a few depth players for the team, it’s worth it.

 

[FreeBird]

I'm interested to see how the Middleton/Mattinen situation plays out. They have both made strides, but are they really worth it? Just one year ago we let Desrocher walk (who was better than both), I think Lindgren and Gordeev are better prospects than both and there is always the possibility of signing further along Euro/NCAA D. It will be interesting to track for sure.

So would our Bigs match up with N Hague as far as prospects go.

 

[Randy Randerson]

So would our Bigs match up with N Hague as far as prospects go.

no, Hague fell to the early 2nd and has taken a big step forward. Good skater, has both offensive and defensive acumen. Hague would be in our top 3-4 prospects

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

By it’s not really an either-or situation though.

Leafs have the resources to use multiple Pathways. Even if this Echl stuff does nothing but produce a few depth players for the team, it’s worth it.

The point is that even if you produce one, they’re still going to just sign wherever there is room for them in the AHL. And likewise, Leafs will just sign the best players available who fill the role with as big a contract as they can like they did with Holl and Froese. There’s no value in producing them in the ECHL v.s. Signing them because they’re cheap, capless and abundant at that level.