TSN: Power Rankings...Leafs 19th. December 17, 2014

[Espher]

Sticking to the East, ordered by current ranking, and looking at teams within 10 pts of Toronto at this point, here are some more fun things to look at:

Extra Time% (% of games going to OT/SO)
Pittsburgh (16% - 9/58)
Boston (16% - 9/57)
Tampa Bay (26% - 15/68)
Montreal (22% - 13/59)
New York Rangers (12% - 7/59)
Philadelphia (17% - 10/59)
Toronto (28% - 17/60)
Detroit (31% - 18/58)
-------
Columbus (17% - 10/58)
Ottawa (27% - 16/59)
Washington (34% - 20/59)
Carolina (23% - 13/57)
New Jersey (34% - 20/59)

Overtime Extra Time% (% of games going to OT/SO that end in OT -- ending in the first 5m of 4v4)
Pittsburgh (44% - 4/9)
Boston (56% - 5/9)
Tampa Bay (40% - 6/15)
Montreal (54% - 7/13)
New York Rangers (14% - 1/7)
Philadelphia (20% - 2/10)
Toronto (24% - 4/17)
Detroit (33% - 6/18)
-------
Columbus (50% - 5/10)
Ottawa (44% - 7/16)
Washington (25% - 5/20)
Carolina (69% - 9/13)
New Jersey (60% - 12/20)

Overtime Win%
Pittsburgh (80% - 4/5)
Boston (50% - 2/2)
Tampa Bay (66% - 4/6)
Montreal (57% - 4/7)
New York Rangers (0% - 0/1)
Philadelphia (50% - 1/1)
Toronto (50% - 2/2)
Detroit (33% - 2/6)
-------
Columbus (20% - 1/5)
Ottawa (29% - 2/7)
Washington (60% - 3/5)
Carolina (33% - 3/9)
New Jersey (58% - 7/12)

Shootout Win%
Pittsburgh (80% - 4/5)
Boston (25% - 1/4)
Tampa Bay (67% - 6/9)
Montreal (50% - 3/6)
New York Rangers (67% - 4/6)
Philadelphia (38% - 3/8)
Toronto (69% - 9/13)
Detroit (33% - 4/12)
-------
Columbus (80% - 4/5)
Ottawa (33% - 3/9)
Washington (53% - 8/15)
Carolina (25% - 1/4)
New Jersey (0% - 0/8)

Extra Time Record/Win% (% won of games ending in extra time)
Pittsburgh (67% - 6/9)
Boston (56% - 5/9)
Tampa Bay (67% - 10/15)
Montreal (54% - 7/13)
New York Rangers (57% - 4/7)
Philadelphia (40% - 4/10)
Toronto (65% - 11/17)
Detroit (33% - 6/18)
-------
Columbus (50% - 5/10)
Ottawa (31% - 5/16)
Washington (55% - 11/20)
Carolina (31% - 4/13)
New Jersey (40% - 4/10)

Regulation Win% (% won of games ending in regulation)
Pittsburgh (69% - 34/49)
Boston (67% - 32/48)
Tampa Bay (53% - 23/43)
Montreal (54% - 25/46)
New York Rangers (54% - 28/52)
Philadelphia (53% - 26/49)
Toronto (49% - 21/43)
Detroit (50% - 20/40)
-------
Columbus (50% - 24/48)
Ottawa (49% - 21/43)
Washington (41% - 16/39)
Carolina (50% - 22/44)
New Jersey (44% - 17/39)

 

[Puckstuff]

While I believe we will tighten up and be good in the playoffs and can make a run the team has been inconsistent, doesn't show up against lesser teams like Buffalo and Florida, get out shot and have a negative goal differential... its not that surprising... when they show up though, there a top 10 team but its not always the case and we all know it.

 

[Alerion]

If the Leafs end up in the wild card spot, where they current reside the they will be ranked #7 or #8 entering the playoffs.

Which will mean facing Pens or Bruins the two powerhouse teams of the East ranked #1 or #2.

There isn't a team in the east I'm scared of playing in the first round based on our play over the last 15 games.

 

[Schennanigans]

Power rankings has always been one of the most pointless rankings. It's really pointless.

 

[Erdinger]

There isn't a team in the east I'm scared of playing in the first round based on our play over the last 15 games.

What scares me about this team is it's inability to start games at even a normal pace. They have an ability to explode for 10 minutes and win games but not putting in the full 60 minutes doesn't bode well once the playoffs start.

 

[dubey]

My power rankings are here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

 

[GalacticaActual]

When you adjust for sustainability, Corsi, and Fenwick, we lose at least 10 spots in the power rankings.

 

[Holymakinaw]

My power rankings are here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

Good ranking. I like what you did there. Impossible to argue with, really.

 

[TheThrill81*]

My power rankings are here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?type=lea#&navid=nav-stn-league

What's wrong with you? It's not about winning! It's only about outshooting your opponents.

 

[Bluelines]

Sorry. These guys have lost a lot of credibility over the last year. They slot the Leafs at 15 and have the Ranger and the Habs at 8 and 9. What a joke TSN has become.

So watching their Hockey preview show they talked about how Toronto was having such a disappointing season and then in the very next segment they talked about how Montreal was having a great season. THEY HAD THE SAME NUMBER OF POINTS IN THE STANDINGS!

Then again the media bias against the Leafs on CBC and SNET is no different.

 

[Holymakinaw]

What's wrong with you? It's not about winning! It's only about outshooting your opponents.

Some people should maybe rethink that stuff. It's almost meaningless.

2013 Teams By corsi ranking vs. actual ranking

1 Los Angeles Kings +495 (12th)
2 New Jersey Devils +417 (24th)
3 Boston Bruins +412 (7th)
4 Ottawa Senators +327 (19th)
5 Chicago Blackhawks +307 (3rd)
6 Detroit Red Wings +278 (17th)
7 Montreal Canadiens +226 (9th)
8 St Louis Blues +150 (2nd)
9 New York Rangers +149 (13th)
10 Carolina Hurricanes +138 (23rd)
11 Vancouver Canucks +121 (21st)
12 San Jose Sharks +115 (5th)
13 Phoenix Coyotes +43 (16th)
14 New York Islanders 0 (26th)
15 Winnipeg Jets -42 (22nd)
16 Minnesota Wild -49 (11th)
17 Florida Panthers -71 (28th)
18 Colorado Avalanche -85 (6th)
19 Pittsburgh Penguins -88 (4th)
20 Dallas Stars -101 (15th)
21 Washington Capitals -125 (20th)
22 Anaheim Ducks -182 (1st)
23 Columbus Blue Jackets -202 (18th)
24 Tampa Bay Lightning -208 (3rd)
25 Philadelphia Flyers -210 (14th)
26 Calgary Flames -215 (27th)
27 Nashville Predators -242 (25th)
28 Buffalo Sabres -403 (30th)
29 Edmonton Oilers -433 (29th)
30 Toronto Maple Leafs -522 (10th)

 

[Mess]

When you adjust for sustainability, Corsi, and Fenwick, we lose at least 10 spots in the power rankings.

Well those stats don't include the SO and Leafs are #1 with 9 wins to date.

SO will help a team get into the playoffs, but not going to help them win playoff games once their in them.

Once they do begin regulation and OT wins are all that matter and Leafs during the regular season struggle in this area and are among the lowest of the playoff teams and even bottom 10 of all teams.

 

[TheThrill81*]

Once they do begin regulation and OT wins are all that matter and Leafs during the regular season struggle in this area and are among the lowest of the playoff teams and even bottom 10 of all teams.

Regulation wins in the regular season are nice and all, but the playoffs are completely different. And the Leafs don't struggle with OT wins as much as you think they do. People need to stop assuming that a team will play the same in both the regular and post-season.

 

[ACC1224]

Well those stats don't include the SO and Leafs are #1 with 9 wins to date.

SO will help a team get into the playoffs, but not going to help them win playoff games once their in them.

Once they do begin regulation and OT wins are all that matter and Leafs during the regular season struggle in this area and are among the lowest of the playoff teams and even bottom 10 of all teams.

There is no reason to think that those shootout wins wouldn't be OT wins if they just played Sudden Death in the regular season.

 

[SprDaVE]

Why do we assume that when the Leafs win in the shootout, they won't be able to win in overtime?

Isn't winning in the shootout a fact that they were able to at least tie OT for 5 minutes? I don't get the logic? Is the other team better suited to win in the playoffs because they didn't win in the shootout?

Meh.

 

[Drakkor]

Well those stats don't include the SO and Leafs are #1 with 9 wins to date.

SO will help a team get into the playoffs, but not going to help them win playoff games once their in them.

Once they do begin regulation and OT wins are all that matter and Leafs during the regular season struggle in this area and are among the lowest of the playoff teams and even bottom 10 of all teams.

In the playoffs, it doesn't matter whether you win in regulation or overtime, a win is a win. It is presumptuous of you to assume the Leafs would automatically lose to those who could not seem to beat them within the same allotted time.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are 11th. in points percentage and play in the east.

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=294742

While the end result of the weighted individual grades provides an approximate value for each team, over the years I've incorporated small weightings for factors like divisional strength, power play and penalty killing results to help smooth statistics that are compiled against different levels of competition. These aren't huge factors in the overall rating but certainly if teams are of similar value otherwise, the team in the stronger division will most often prevail in the rankings.

The premise, then, of my NHL Power Rankings is to determine the team that would be favoured to win a seven-game series on neutral ice. The theoretical premise is based on neutral ice because home-ice advantage is a circumstance of play, not a measure of a team's actual quality.

What is the Leafs' home versus road record?

Home: 21-10-1
Road: 11-12-5

 

[Warden of the North]

That would be 5th in the east and 11th in the league

Leafs are 11th. in points percentage and play in the east.

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=294742



What is the Leafs' home versus road record?

 

[Mess]

In the playoffs, it doesn't matter whether you win in regulation or overtime, a win is a win. It is presumptuous of you to assume the Leafs would automatically lose to those who could not seem to beat them within the same allotted time.

Its not presumptuous if you rank playoff contenders by regulation ROW's as TSN power rankings do. Leafs would place in the bottom 10 NHL teams overall not the top ones, so a 15th place ranking seems to be reasonable all things considered.

Teams that earned regular season wins in regulation or OT needed just 65 minutes to decide games without the skills competition. Whereas the Leafs have struggled to secure wins during team play, but excelled at individual play.

Advanced stats only apply to 5v5 & special teams play for regulation/OT, and SO results are not factored into power rankings. Leafs have earned more points than any other team as a result of something that doesn't apply come playoff time.

ie Teams like Boston and Pittsburgh are tied for #2 overall in the overall standings with 36 ROW wins, whereas Leafs have 23 ROW (-13 ROW).

 

[Drakkor]

Its not presumptuous if you rank playoff contenders by regulation ROW's as TSN power rankings do. Leafs would place in the bottom 10 NHL teams overall not the top ones, so a 15th place ranking seems to be reasonable all things considered.

Teams that earned regular season wins in regulation or OT needed just 65 minutes to decide games without the skills competition. Whereas the Leafs have struggled to secure wins during team play, but excelled at individual play.

Advanced stats only apply to 5v5 & special teams play for regulation/OT, and SO results are not factored into power rankings. Leafs have earned more points than any other team as a result of something that doesn't apply come playoff time.

It is presumptuous to assume it as an automatic negative.

Don't care about advanced stats. They don't even come close to the actual standings and until they fix the math to become a closer resemblance of the on ice product they will remain useless.

Your right, in the playoffs, points don't matter. First team to four wins, wins the series.

I don't care where TSN has the Leafs ranked. It is becoming apparent that most reporters don't watch the games anymore. it has become a job not a passion to them.

edit to your ie: Not arguing Pittsburg and Boston but after seeing Toronto against Montreal, who in the hell in their right mind could see them winning in a seven game series.

 

[Mess]

There is no reason to think that those shootout wins wouldn't be OT wins if they just played Sudden Death in the regular season.

Except these TSN power rankings are based on actual results both team and individual that have actually occurred, are tangible and measurable.

Speculation as to what might happen beyond the 65 minutes of regulation/OT as your suggesting on, is not based on what did happen and are intangible and thus unmeasurable.

Advanced stats end, before SO and beyond begin.

 

[ACC1224]

Except these TSN power rankings are based on actual results both team and individual that have actually occurred, are tangible and measurable.

Speculation as to what might happen beyond the 65 minutes of regulation/OT as your suggesting on, is not based on what did happen and are intangible and thus unmeasurable.

Advanced stats end, before SO and beyond begin.

I guess I'm more into thinking for myself than relying on Power Rankings and Advanced Stats.

I'm an old school type of fan, I watch the games.

 

[Gallagbi]

Except these TSN power rankings are based on actual results both team and individual that have actually occurred, are tangible and measurable.

Speculation as to what might happen beyond the 65 minutes of regulation/OT as your suggesting on, is not based on what did happen and are intangible and thus unmeasurable.

Advanced stats end, before SO and beyond begin.

Not really, these power rankings are based on a number of assumptions. He states that in his write up.

The standings are based on actual results, both individual and team. Power rankings are based on recent play, many assumptions and biased interpretation.

 

[Mess]

It is presumptuous to assume it as an automatic negative.

Don't care about advanced stats. They don't even come close to the actual standings and until they fix the math to become a closer resemblance of the on ice product they will remain useless.

Your right, in the playoffs, points don't matter. First team to four wins, wins the series.

I don't care where TSN has the Leafs ranked. It is becoming apparent that most reporters don't watch the games anymore. it has become a job not a passion to them.

Last year power rankings using advanced stats suggested the Leafs would lose in a 7 game playoff series. Actually they suggested Leafs were fortunate to even make them based on their actual play and performance.

The results played out as predicted, but that didn't prevent some Leaf fans from ignoring actual results of losing in 7 games and carrying on Leaf results beyond the 1st round in various "What if" scenarios.

This seems similar here of using optimism when trying to diffuse TSN power rankings by suggesting Leafs could win beyond the actual SO results. The Leafs couldn't win in 65 minutes, so therefore they could win in +65 and beyond if you ignored the actual SO results essentially.

TSN power rankings take 23 ROW in 60 NHL games and see a .383 (38.3%) winning %. You're not likely or logically expected to win a 7 game playoff series without a winning % > .500 (50%). ie winning 4 of 7 games played.

 

[Gallagbi]

Last year power rankings using advanced stats suggested the Leafs would lose in a 7 game playoff series. Actually they suggested Leafs were fortunate to even make them based on their actual play and performance.

The results played out as predicted, but that didn't prevent some Leaf fans from ignoring actual results of losing in 7 games and carrying on Leaf results beyond the 1st round in various "What if" scenarios.

This seems similar here of using optimism when trying to diffuse TSN power rankings by suggesting Leafs could win beyond the actual SO results. The Leafs couldn't win in 65 minutes, so therefore they could win in +65 and beyond if you ignored the actual SO results essentially.

TSN power rankings take 23 ROW in 60 NHL games and see a .383 (38.3%) winning %. You're not likely or logically expected to win a 7 game playoff series without a winning % > .500 (50%). ie winning 4 of 7 games played.

The Leafs were ahead of the Bruins in ROW last year. So why would they base their predictions on that?


Power rankings also value recent history over early season results and the Leafs haven't won a shootout in 4 weeks. The Leafs are 8-2-1 over their last 11 with all wins coming in regulation.