TSN: Power Rankings...Leafs 19th. December 17, 2014

[Hounsy]

Last year power rankings using advanced stats suggested the Leafs would lose in a 7 game playoff series. Actually they suggested Leafs were fortunate to even make them based on their actual play and performance.

The results played out as predicted, but that didn't prevent some Leaf fans from ignoring actual results of losing in 7 games and carrying on Leaf results beyond the 1st round in various "What if" scenarios.

So which is it?

 

[Mess]

The Leafs were ahead of the Bruins in ROW last year. So why would they base their predictions on that?


Power rankings also value recent history over early season results and the Leafs haven't won a shootout in 4 weeks. The Leafs are 8-2-1 over their last 11 with all wins coming in regulation.

However these Power rankings are accumulative over the course of the full season and not just based on the last 10-11 game results only.

Leafs went a stretch of 32-34 games with only 4 ROW and dug themselves a big hole in the YTD power rankings accordingly, unable to win in Reg or OT time.

That said using ROW as a major guideline to understanding TSN power rankings then if you took the 16 current teams in a playoff position as of today and applied the winning %.

ie. ROW / Games played = winning %.. 23 ROW/60 games = 38.3%

The Leafs would place 15th of 16 current playoff teams and exactly where TSN power rankings have them presently.

 

[Drakkor]

Last year power rankings using advanced stats suggested the Leafs would lose in a 7 game playoff series. Actually they suggested Leafs were fortunate to even make them based on their actual play and performance.

The results played out as predicted, but that didn't prevent some Leaf fans from ignoring actual results of losing in 7 games and carrying on Leaf results beyond the 1st round in various "What if" scenarios.

This seems similar here of using optimism when trying to diffuse TSN power rankings by suggesting Leafs could win beyond the actual SO results. The Leafs couldn't win in 65 minutes, so therefore they could win in +65 and beyond if you ignored the actual SO results essentially.

TSN power rankings take 23 ROW in 60 NHL games and see a .383 (38.3%) winning %. You're not likely or logically expected to win a 7 game playoff series without a winning % > .500 (50%). ie winning 4 of 7 games played.

Yet they made the playoffs, and took a team that had their number to 7 games.

I love math and all. Definitive and exact, only one right answer. But it only works when you have all the variables. That is impossible in sports.

The TSN Power Rankings are using an entire season in their logic while the teams are constantly evolving. Player roles are being altered, specialty teams are progressing and regressing. Which team is a greater threat it the playoffs, the team that starts hot and finishes warm but with a higher ROW or the team that finishes hot.

 

[cack]

Sorry. These guys have lost a lot of credibility over the last year. They slot the Leafs at 15 and have the Ranger and the Habs at 8 and 9. What a joke TSN has become.

TSN power rankings are a joke because they incorporate advanced statistics which are also a joke. The media needs something to talk about and hockey fans who do not understand hockey eat this crap up.

 

[Mess]

The TSN power rankings are basically ranking Cup contenders in order by play and performance based on advanced stats.

Leafs are ranked 15th at present and 15 of 30 teams is 50% or average middle of the pack. Are Leafs stronger Cup contenders then teams that are in front of them in the current standings sitting as a wild card team at present?

Are the same fans that are claiming TSN power rankings are wrong believing Leafs are stronger Cup contenders than been given credit for? Are these the same fans that feel Leafs are being unfairly treated here the same ones that not so long ago this very season that wanted Carlyle fired and/or the team disbanded.

So what has changed the Team and the Coach are the same from a few months back?

These power rankings are based on full season of play to date and some feel games 50-60 of Leafs current past 10 games should count more than the 50 others previously. How so when they will be evaluated on 82 games of ROW play via advanced stats?.

 

[Gallagbi]

However these Power rankings are accumulative over the course of the full season and not just based on the last 10-11 game results only.

Leafs went a stretch of 32-34 games with only 4 ROW and dug themselves a big hole in the YTD power rankings accordingly, unable to win in Reg or OT time.

That said using ROW as a major guideline to understanding TSN power rankings then if you took the 16 current teams in a playoff position as of today and applied the winning %.

ie. ROW / Games played = winning %.. 23 ROW/60 games = 38.3%

The Leafs would place 15th of 16 current playoff teams and exactly where TSN power rankings have them presently.

So if ROW is the priority, why would they have been underdogs against the Bruins last year?

Power ranking are cumulative, but not evenly weighted liked the NHL schedule. There is more of a slant towards recent history.

 

[Mess]

So if ROW is the priority, why would they have been underdogs against the Bruins last year?

Power ranking are cumulatice, but not evenly weighted liked the NHL schedule. There is more of a slant towards recent history.

ROW is only 1 stat among numerous advanced stats being tracked, by both player and teams results.

Bruins outperform the Leafs in many categories being tracked this year and last year and therefore are considered a much stronger Cup contender then the Leafs presently are, and why they would be above the Leafs in power rakings.

Bruins winning a recent Cup and last years finish alone should confirm that Boston is a better team than Toronto. They beat the Leafs when it counted most in the playoffs. The stats played out as predicted.

 

[Gallagbi]

ROW is only 1 stat among numerous advanced stats being tracked, by both player and teams results.

Bruins outperform the Leafs in many categories being tracked this year and last year and therefore are considered a much stronger Cup contender then the Leafs presently are, and why they would be above the Leafs in power rakings.

Bruins winning a recent Cup and last years finish alone should confirm that Boston is a better team than Toronto. They beat the Leafs when it counted most in the playoffs. The stats played out as predicted.

So now ROW isn't a major guideline like you said it was? Montreal and Toronto were both ahead of Boston in ROW last year and finished behind them on the power rankings, so it can't be considered a major guideline.

Looks like you're agreeing that these are subjective rankings,

 

[Slot]

Some people should maybe rethink that stuff. It's almost meaningless.

2013 Teams By corsi ranking vs. actual ranking

1 Los Angeles Kings +495 (12th)
2 New Jersey Devils +417 (24th)
3 Boston Bruins +412 (7th)
4 Ottawa Senators +327 (19th)
5 Chicago Blackhawks +307 (3rd)
6 Detroit Red Wings +278 (17th)
7 Montreal Canadiens +226 (9th)
8 St Louis Blues +150 (2nd)
9 New York Rangers +149 (13th)
10 Carolina Hurricanes +138 (23rd)
11 Vancouver Canucks +121 (21st)
12 San Jose Sharks +115 (5th)
13 Phoenix Coyotes +43 (16th)
14 New York Islanders 0 (26th)
15 Winnipeg Jets -42 (22nd)
16 Minnesota Wild -49 (11th)
17 Florida Panthers -71 (28th)
18 Colorado Avalanche -85 (6th)
19 Pittsburgh Penguins -88 (4th)
20 Dallas Stars -101 (15th)
21 Washington Capitals -125 (20th)
22 Anaheim Ducks -182 (1st)
23 Columbus Blue Jackets -202 (18th)
24 Tampa Bay Lightning -208 (3rd)
25 Philadelphia Flyers -210 (14th)
26 Calgary Flames -215 (27th)
27 Nashville Predators -242 (25th)
28 Buffalo Sabres -403 (30th)
29 Edmonton Oilers -433 (29th)
30 Toronto Maple Leafs -522 (10th)

Teams in red are significantly under-performing v/ Corsi and teams in green are significantly over performing v/ Corsi.

This seems to indicate that there is something missing in the Corsi stat. Does anyone have a similar stat line for Fenwick?

 

[Drakkor]

Teams in red are significantly under-performing v/ Corsi and teams in green are significantly over performing v/ Corsi.

This seems to indicate that there is something missing in the Corsi stat. Does anyone have a similar stat line for Fenwick?

Please don't use green again, or at least that shade. It gave me a headache.

 

[Slot]

Please don't use green again, or at least that shade. It gave me a headache.

I'll take your advice under advisement.

 

[Havoc]

We were basically a bottom three team during that horrendous stretch. 15 is a huge jump if you put things into context. The season has not been consistent enough to be rated any higher. One bad slump again and we're suddenly out of the playoffs.

 

[Alerion]

Well those stats don't include the SO and Leafs are #1 with 9 wins to date.

SO will help a team get into the playoffs, but not going to help them win playoff games once their in them.

Once they do begin regulation and OT wins are all that matter and Leafs during the regular season struggle in this area and are among the lowest of the playoff teams and even bottom 10 of all teams.

I have no proof for this but perhaps the Leafs play to reach the shootout once a game hits OT as its one of their strengths, meaning their ROW total is slightly skewed. 4 on 4 hockey should favour a rush team with strong goaltending and that's exactly what we are.

 

[daveleaf]

However these Power rankings are accumulative over the course of the full season and not just based on the last 10-11 game results only.

Leafs went a stretch of 32-34 games with only 4 ROW and dug themselves a big hole in the YTD power rankings accordingly, unable to win in Reg or OT time.

That said using ROW as a major guideline to understanding TSN power rankings then if you took the 16 current teams in a playoff position as of today and applied the winning %.

ie. ROW / Games played = winning %.. 23 ROW/60 games = 38.3%

The Leafs would place 15th of 16 current playoff teams and exactly where TSN power rankings have them presently.

You should read your link you provided to me, namely the following.

"Consider the rankings to be a snapshot (think photography, not Ovechkin coming down the wing) of a team's value at a given time."

You should have read the link you provided to me. The Power Ranking is a 'snapshot' and not accumulated over the whole season.

What I showed is that they have contradicted themselves on several levels and yet, and you continue to do so, defend their selection process. I am dumbfounded why you would do this other than trying to antagonize Leaf fans on this board.

Ranking are updated every week, on Monday I believe as to what he stated.

 

[Espher]

What is the Leafs' home versus road record?

Comparable to or better than seven of the fourteen teams ahead of them?

You guys are bouncing around the metrics to justify the rankings almost as much as Cullen is.

Are they a snapshot (considering recent performance and injuries), or are they cumulative (considering performance in aggregate)? Is it based on a seven game playoff series in a vacuum (placing high emphasis on ROW), or normalized performance against competitors based on their performance (e.g. a team that is .500 but strong against good teams and weak against weak teams would rank different than a team that is .500 across the board)? Are advanced stats given more or less weight than raw results (and which advanced stats carry higher weight)? How important are entirely arbitrary values like divisional strength (and how are the weighted), or is the data being normalized by considering the teams' records against other teams (weighted by their performance against other teams, to give a real assessment of performance against 'strong' and 'weak' teams)? Is a team's recent opposition and schedule 'difficulty' (opponents, travel, # of games) given much consideration, or washed out?

I never really know, and if I try to explain different results week to week I have to pick different answers.

That's what frustrates me with these sorts of rankings.

 

[Fogelhund]

Really, who cares what TSN or anyone else ranks us. Enjoy the regular season games, hope we make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. Rankings are meaningless.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

We're TE=Havoc;79746389]We were basically a bottom three team during that horrendous stretch. 15 is a huge jump if you put things into context. The season has not been consistent enough to be rated any higher. One bad slump again and we're suddenly out of the playoffs.[/QUOTE]
The same can be said for practically any team in the Eastern Conference aside from the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins.

We have nearly an identical record as the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens, you know the guys who are 3rd and 4th in points in our conference.. So what makes them different? Why do we have to be perfect?

And outside of the 5 powerhouses in the Western Conference the Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Anaheim Ducks, LA Kings, San Jose Sharks, which teams are clearly better? The Colorado Avalanche have been great this season but they were bottom feeders prior to that. The Vancouver Canuck are in free fall, while the Minnesota Wild are a very comparable team to ourselves.

And that's it.

So what's that then.. 4 from the East and arguably 6 from the West?

We deserve to sit 10-12th in a power ranking just like where we rank in points. We were a 5th place team last season, and have been performing well even through injuries this season as well. Now considering we're 11-2-1 in the last big stretch of games having us sitting in the middle of the league - - behind the Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Phoenix Coyotes no less (ie. non-playoff teams) is just nonsensical.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are 11th. in points percentage and play in the east.

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=294742

While the end result of the weighted individual grades provides an approximate value for each team, over the years I've incorporated small weightings for factors like divisional strength, power play and penalty killing results to help smooth statistics that are compiled against different levels of competition. These aren't huge factors in the overall rating but certainly if teams are of similar value otherwise, the team in the stronger division will most often prevail in the rankings.

The premise, then, of my NHL Power Rankings is to determine the team that would be favoured to win a seven-game series on neutral ice. The theoretical premise is based on neutral ice because home-ice advantage is a circumstance of play, not a measure of a team's actual quality.

What is the Leafs' home versus road record?

Home: 21-10-1
Road: 11-12-5

If home ice versus road is a consideration, you can understand not being higher than 15th.

Home ice advantage would be neutralized for this discussion.

Really, it is entertainment and actual results will be determined. Last year the Leafs were eliminated in the first round.

 

[Mess]

I have no proof for this but perhaps the Leafs play to reach the shootout once a game hits OT as its one of their strengths, meaning their ROW total is slightly skewed. 4 on 4 hockey should favour a rush team with strong goaltending and that's exactly what we are.

You may be right, but that certainly isn't helping Leafs in a power ranking based on playoff strength of play. If the Leafs are playing for a shootout and the shootout doesn't exist in the playoffs then Leafs are simply using it to get into the playoffs, but its of no use to be successful in them. A strong shootout ability is useless in the playoffs.

4 on 4 play is also rare and doesn't exist in the playoffs other then offsetting penalties as the rules for OT in the playoffs don't include automatically playing 4 on 4 like OT in the regular season. So again Leafs trying to get the game to OT where they might gain an advantage during the regular season is not a weapon available come playoff time.

The majority of all games are played at 5v5 and this is where ROW and strong puck possession teams would come out ahead come playoff time. Leafs rank poorly 5v5 and ROW, time of possession and as such it hurts them in TSN power rankings designed to determine playoff strength.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Really, who cares what TSN or anyone else ranks us. Enjoy the regular season games, hope we make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. Rankings are meaningless.

That's the 2nd best post in here

 

[Clark4Ever]

Really, who cares what TSN or anyone else ranks us. Enjoy the regular season games, hope we make the playoffs, and see what happens from there. Rankings are meaningless.

Especially when one considers how many points separate the majority of teams in each conference.

 

[Mess]

You should read your link you provided to me, namely the following.

"Consider the rankings to be a snapshot (think photography, not Ovechkin coming down the wing) of a team's value at a given time."

You should have read the link you provided to me. The Power Ranking is a 'snapshot' and not accumulated over the whole season.

What I showed is that they have contradicted themselves on several levels and yet, and you continue to do so, defend their selection process. I am dumbfounded why you would do this other than trying to antagonize Leaf fans on this board.

Ranking are updated every week, on Monday I believe as to what he stated.

I think you're misinterpreting the meaning of snap shot.. The power rankings begin with game 1 and are evaluated each week as more data comes in..

The listing you posted shows the Leafs moving up 2 spots from 17 to 15 based on play from the current last week of play.. That means the rankings are not based on just the current snap shot but changing as more data comes in.

This Week 15 -- Last Week 17 -- Toronto Maple Leafs 32-22-6

Hit the break with an 11-2-1 record in the past 14 games, and those results are fighting back against underlying numbers that wouldn't typically put the Leafs in the playoff picture. As is, however, they hold a wildcard spot, ahead of four teams that have at least as many regulation/OT wins.

Notice the last line I bolded.. Those numbers being quoted are based on YTD figures not just this last week of play. Therefore the list is season based accumulated results. The snapshot (point in time analysis) is simply a cutoff point (as of date) to evaluate YTD results because the full season is not complete. The standings each night is a snapshot of the YTD standings as of a certain date. The weekly cutoff snapshot results likely Sunday at midnight, to allow for new updated YTD rankings to take place.

This is not a ranking list based only on the last weeks play otherwise the teams would simply be ordered with the best record that week and ranked accordingly. Notice the Kings being ranked 12th with a record of only 2 wins in the last 11 mentioned, verses Leafs 15th that have won 11 of their last 13. How would that be logical if only this weeks results counted?

Perhaps this is the reason you feel the Leafs are being slighted because you believe the analysis is only based on the last couple weeks (week-to-date) of play only and not year-to-date accumulated results.

 

[Espher]

What is the Leafs' home versus road record?

Home: 21-10-1
Road: 11-12-5

If home ice versus road is a consideration, you can understand not being higher than 15th.

Home ice advantage would be neutralized for this discussion.

If home ice is neutralized, the Leafs 'neutral ice' record (if normalized to an equal number of games for both records, using their current home/away records) would still be about 32-22-6 (31.5-22.2-6.3). Realistically, we would need to be assessing the home/away records for every team they played against to see what kind of 'advantage' those teams enjoyed playing home/away games, and then do some tidying up of the data there, but I think that goes too far into it for this discussion.

Or are we assuming that home ice advantage for the other teams would still be present?

The standings each night is a snapshot of the YTD standings as of a certain date. The weekly cutoff snapshot results likely Sunday at midnight, to allow for new updated YTD rankings to take place.

This would be a great argument to make if there weren't often wild swings for certain teams week to week based on recent injuries and performance.

And then you've got the big log jam from 8-15, especially with things like NYR, who get a blurb that paints them as similar to the Leafs (on a tear the last fifteen, hot goaltending, batting .500 at home and better on the road [the opposite of the Leafs]) and yet sit above comparable teams like the Leafs or Philadelphia by 6-12 rankings... or situations Montreal, whose blurb reads an awful lot like Toronto at the start of Toronto's hot streak (except with declining possession), yet saw them (arguably inexplicably) leapfrog Columbus and also sees them sit well above TML/Philly.

 

[Eb]

It's not that off.

Toronto has the 10th most points in the league. If teams win their games in hand they could be 12th.

The rangers, who would still be below the leafs (but are still really close) in this case are 7-3-0 in their last 10 while the leafs are 7-2-1, very comparable so at that point you could look at the margin of victories and how convincing they are.

Montreal is on a 3 game winning streak while being ahead of Toronto in the standings.

I think the leafs may be a little low at 15, but if I was to do it myself they would still probably only be at 12-14.

It's not just judged strictly off points, if I remember correctly.

 

[Mess]

Some people should maybe rethink that stuff. It's almost meaningless.

2013 Teams By corsi ranking vs. actual ranking

1 Los Angeles Kings +495 (12th)
2 New Jersey Devils +417 (24th)
3 Boston Bruins +412 (7th)
4 Ottawa Senators +327 (19th)
5 Chicago Blackhawks +307 (3rd)

Meaningless?

In last years playoffs teams 1, 3 ,and 5 which had the best Corsi regular season numbers comprised 3 of the final 4 in last years playoffs and included the Stanley Cup winning Hawks. Can't get much better than that. In fact those 3 teams comprise the last 4 Stanley Cup winners.

The other team was the powerhouse Pittsburgh Pens but were swept in 4 games by the Bruins who had the much better Corsi figures.

If TSN power rankings are trying to establish Cup competitiveness in winning playoff rounds then Team Corsi results would be a great place to start based on last years figures.