Player Discussion: PLD

[Daximus]

So get him cheaper after a down year, banking on him likely returning to at least his previous form (it’s not like he suddenly forgot how to hockey), or risk having him have a bounce back season + and have it cost you plenty more.
I don’t see the risk at signing him at mid level 2C money long term. I’d take the bet I’m likely to come out ahead on that deal.

That's the angle I'm looking at this from. Could easily turn into a Schief or Ehlers type situation where we get him for what looks like market value and then he produces well above that for the remainder.

 

[10Ducky10]

[QUOTE="Daximus, post: 177838458, member: 236743"]You can probably get him for much cheaper this summer than you will next summer. A 45-55 point 2C for around $6m is probably not a bad contract long term, that's about average relative to the current cap for that position and production, maybe a little bit high. Unless you think he bombs next year too.[/QUOTE]
You'll know better what you have after next season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

That's the angle I'm looking at this from. Could easily turn into a Schief or Ehlers type situation where we get him for what looks like market value and then he produces well above that for the remainder.

Or he could be a laine situation where he doesn’t live up to expectations and we keep expecting him to be something he’s not.

 

[Daximus]

Or he could be a laine situation where he doesn’t live up to expectations and we keep expecting him to be something he’s not.

$6mil or around there is ok for that kind of player though. Not great, not good but okay. Laine starts at 7.5m

 

[10Ducky10]

$6mil or around there is ok for that kind of player though. Not great, not good but okay. Laine starts at 7.5m

He's making 6.5m this year...do you really think he signs long term for 6m???

 

[Daximus]

He's making 6.5m this year...do you really think he signs long term for 6m???

Hes making 6.65 but 5 mil AAV. If you front load it he probably signs for a reasonable amount.

 

[10Ducky10]

Hes making 6.65 but 5 mil AAV. If you front load it he probably signs for a reasonable amount.

6m is not a reasonable amount though...not even short term.

 

[ps241]

6m is not a reasonable amount though...not even short term.

Taking the long view there is a high probability PLD will be our 2nd line centre and play at a better than he has this season. As we found out the hard way (2 x 1st round picks) top 6 centers are really hard to acquire. Maybe this off season is exactly when you want to secure him long term.

I realize he has not played to the level many were hoping for yet but Chevy will want to get him locked up at some point IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There's a downside and an upside to this situation. After his season if we sign him long term this summer before next season starts he likely comes relatively cheap. The QO is $6mil I believe. So on a long term deal you might be looking at Ehlers or Scheifele money, maybe a bit more. $6.5m might get it done over 6 years.

If you wait and he has a blow up season, maybe him and Ehlers play together next year. Maybe Perfetti or Vesalainen makes it onto his left wing and they just light it up. Maybe he gets 70 points, maybe they blow up and he gets 80+. Then you are likely looking at significantly more money to lock up PLD longterm. Kids got skill and with a full training camp and some practice time and settling into Winnipeg a bit more he has the potential to really boom. If we manage to make playoffs next year and he shows up there we could be looking at well past $8mil money if he has a really solid season.

Yes, there is that possible downside. But I don't think we get him all that cheaply with an extension this summer. His salary next season is 6.65 mil, so that will also be the QO number. Is he likely to sign long term for less than the QO?

I'm optimistic for his longer term play but I haven't seen any signs of 70-80 point seasons so far. What is he worth, based on this season? If we take his career ppg, he scores at a 53 pt pace despite having played as 1C for CBJ. He is scoring at a 44 pt pace so far for Wpg. If we use his QO as a baseline and offer him .5 mil over that we are already at 7.15 mil. Is that what 45-55 pt 2C's get today? Because that is what I think we have. That is what we are paying KC to score 35 goals per year.

 

[DRW204]

I wouldn't sign Dubois long term. The QO is too high. Imo he needs to prove alot over the next year or you move (dump) him.

yikes. i still think there's a good player somewhere there, in CBJ he was V strong imo. this year he's been obviously poor for us, but at least we don't have to make any decisions so soon. hope for a better showing next year to prove he's worth the 8m or w/e ppl kept telling me.

Chevy will not sign him this off season.

he (PLD) won't sign either i bet after his showing this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can probably get him for much cheaper this summer than you will next summer. A 45-55 point 2C for around $6m is probably not a bad contract long term, that's about average relative to the current cap for that position and production, maybe a little bit high. Unless you think he bombs next year too.

The question is, could we even get him for 6 mil this off-season? He will get 6.65 next season and a QO of the same the season after. Why would he take less than that? Security? Maybe.

Is it fair to say he is bombing this year? Maybe this is what he really is. Maybe we get the same next year.

 

[Ducky10]

The question is, could we even get him for 6 mil this off-season? He will get 6.65 next season and a QO of the same the season after. Why would he take less than that? Security? Maybe.

Is it fair to say he is bombing this year? Maybe this is what he really is. Maybe we get the same next year.

That’s the risk, but is it a risk? Based on sample size it’s safer to say he’s bombing than this being who he really is.

 

[Daximus]

The question is, could we even get him for 6 mil this off-season? He will get 6.65 next season and a QO of the same the season after. Why would he take less than that? Security? Maybe.

Is it fair to say he is bombing this year? Maybe this is what he really is. Maybe we get the same next year.

Pretty sure I read his QO is $6 mil?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Taking the long view there is a high probability PLD will be our 2nd line centre and play at a better than he has this season. As we found out the hard way (2 x 1st round picks) top 6 centers are really hard to acquire. Maybe this off season is exactly when you want to secure him long term.

I realize he has not played to the level many were hoping for yet but Chevy will want to get him locked up at some point IMO.

It just all depends on how much it takes. If he insists on something North of his QO, I'd hesitate. If he would accept 6 mil x 5-8 years, I'd lock him up.

He is another case of having been given a 2 year show-me contract and having failed to 'show-me' in that 1st year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That’s the risk, but is it a risk? Based on sample size it’s safer to say he’s bombing than this being who he really is.

He had 1 season in CBus that was significantly better and then dropped off in each of the 2 following years. If we avg his 4 seasons in the NHL, he scores at a 53 pt pace. If we drop the highest and lowest seasons, he averages a 52 pt pace. That is playing as a 1 C with 1C TOI and the best wingers CBJ had at the time.

All in all, I think that he probably is a 50-55 pt, 2 way 2C. It is what his resume indicates and what the eye-test in Wpg indicates. How much is that worth today?

 

[KingBogo]

Hmmm I remember hearing the insider's say we needed that top dman not that Chevy was actually willing to pay the price. He had no trouble pulling the trigger for Hayes and Stastny before that so what was the excuse this time?

Those 1sts were accompanied by B and C level prospects. Apparently the asks for Top D at the deadline needed an A level cream of your crop prospect to seal the deal. That is a price too high IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pretty sure I read his QO is $6 mil?

The QO is whatever his previous year's salary was, AFAIK. It is 105% for players earning < a set amount. IDK exactly what that amount is but it is in the neighbourhood of 1 mil.

 

[KingBogo]

A little early to conclude that. Might hold off on the extension until next season though.

Signing PLD this off season could end up being one Chevy’s best moves as a GM. Getting him signed long term after a down year full of extenuating circumstances might save us 2-3 million in cap space over the next 6-8 years.

 

[Daximus]

The QO is whatever his previous year's salary was, AFAIK. It is 105% for players earning < a set amount. IDK exactly what that amount is but it is in the neighbourhood of 1 mil.

I read, as per the CBA Transition Rules for 20/21, the Jets can make a one year QO offer at 120% of the current contracts AAV. Which is $6 million.

Direct Quote from THN:

Dubois can be offered just a one-year deal with a salary of $6 million (120% of the current contract’s AAV), as described in the Transition Rules signed prior to this season. (For information on the MOU, the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the 2020-21 Transition Rules, see Players Contract Implications for the 2020-21 NHL Season.)

 

[Daximus]

Those 1sts were accompanied by B and C level prospects. Apparently the asks for Top D at the deadline needed an A level cream of your crop prospect to seal the deal. That is a price too high IMO.

Yeah and it was mostly because a lot of the guys we wanted had extra years remaining. Didn't make sense to move one of Heinola or Samberg in a deal and have that player potentially walk in 2022.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Signing PLD this off season could end up being one Chevy’s best moves as a GM. Getting him signed long term after a down year full of extenuating circumstances might save us 2-3 million in cap space over the next 6-8 years.

It might - and it might not. It could do exactly the opposite of that.
Do you expect him to sign for 5 mil this off-season? It might take 7+. Does that save us 2-3 mil? Maybe it takes 6.5 and we get a 5 mil player.

We don't know how much it will take to sign him this off-season. We don't know how much it will cost to sign him next off-season. We don't know how much he is worth, or how much he will be worth. So in a complete information vacuum, go ahead and sign him for an unknown amount over an unknown term.

 

[WolfHouse]

yikes. i still think there's a good player somewhere there, in CBJ he was V strong imo. this year he's been obviously poor for us, but at least we don't have to make any decisions so soon. hope for a better showing next year to prove he's worth the 8m or w/e ppl kept telling me.

he (PLD) won't sign either i bet after his showing this year.

PLD is not far off his pace for two of his three years... extrapolated to 84 games he’s 18 goals and 24 assts

Looking like he’s a 45-50 pt guy... hopefully he develops but right now he’s a second line C that we are about to overpay

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I read, as per the CBA Transition Rules for 20/21, the Jets can make a one year QO offer at 120% of the current contracts AAV. Which is $6 million.

Direct Quote from THN:

Dubois can be offered just a one-year deal with a salary of $6 million (120% of the current contract’s AAV), as described in the Transition Rules signed prior to this season. (For information on the MOU, the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the 2020-21 Transition Rules, see Players Contract Implications for the 2020-21 NHL Season.)

That doesn't make any sense at all. He already has a contract for next year. They can't give him a QO of any amount or kind this year. CF won't calculate his QO, because he is not eligible for a QO until next year.

Edit: I will trust CF over THN.

 

[tbcwpg]

Hmmm I remember hearing the insider's say we needed that top dman not that Chevy was actually willing to pay the price. He had no trouble pulling the trigger for Hayes and Stastny before that so what was the excuse this time?

Those insiders also reported that the ask for a top dman was a 1st and Heinola, and that's top dman by trade deadline standards and not actual level of play standards.

 

[Daximus]

That doesn't make any sense at all. He already has a contract for next year. They can't give him a QO of any amount or kind this year. CF won't calculate his QO, because he is not eligible for a QO until next year.

Edit: I will trust CF over THN.

I think they are just using the transition rules as a baseline as it applies to all contracts at the end of next year as well. 120% of the AVV or the final contract years salary.