Player Discussion: PLD

[scelaton]

Signing PLD this off season could end up being one Chevy’s best moves as a GM. Getting him signed long term after a down year full of extenuating circumstances might save us 2-3 million in cap space over the next 6-8 years.

It might - and it might not. It could do exactly the opposite of that.
Do you expect him to sign for 5 mil this off-season? It might take 7+. Does that save us 2-3 mil? Maybe it takes 6.5 and we get a 5 mil player.
We don't know how much it will take to sign him this off-season. We don't know how much it will cost to sign him next off-season. We don't know how much he is worth, or how much he will be worth. So in a complete information vacuum, go ahead and sign him for an unknown amount over an unknown term.

Agree with Bogo here.

We don't know anything with certainty...except that in a 32-team flat capped league you can't win with an abundance of caution. The Jets have to find strengths that differentiate them from everyone else and one of those is creating a climate that encourages long-term commitment from young stars at very modest AAVs. The Jets have an excellent scouting department, a nurturing culture and know exactly what they are buying in PLD. His under-performance under these trying circumstances is rare opportunity that comes with tolerable (IMO) risk.

You don't win if you can't make calculated decisions based incomplete knowledge and play to your strengths. Now I sound like Alpha Lackey giving a tutorial on poker....

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree with Bogo here.

We don't know anything with certainty...except that in a 32-team flat capped league you can't win with an abundance of caution. The Jets have to find strengths that differentiate them from everyone else and one of those is creating a climate that encourages long-term commitment from young stars at very modest AAVs. The Jets have an excellent scouting department, a nurturing culture and know exactly what they are buying in PLD. His under-performance under these trying circumstances is rare opportunity that comes with tolerable (IMO) risk.

You don't win if you can't make calculated decisions based incomplete knowledge and play to your strengths. Now I sound like Alpha Lackey giving a tutorial on poker....

I might agree if a modest AAV was likely to be an option here. That 6.5 mil salary in the last year of his current contract sets a high starting point for negotiations - regardless of how QO's are calculated. IMO, it sets the AAV too high based on his play so far. I don't want to commit to 7-8 years at 7.5 mil for what we have seen to date.

I don't agree that they know exactly what they are buying in PLD. That's the problem. It would be different if they did. Or maybe they do. Maybe they know he is a 45-50 pt 2C and will sign for 8x5.5. I don't think he accepts that though.

 

[scelaton]

I might agree if a modest AAV was likely to be an option here. That 6.5 mil salary in the last year of his current contract sets a high starting point for negotiations - regardless of how QO's are calculated. IMO, it sets the AAV too high based on his play so far. I don't want to commit to 7-8 years at 7.5 mil for what we have seen to date.

I don't agree that they know exactly what they are buying in PLD. That's the problem. It would be different if they did. Or maybe they do. Maybe they know he is a 45-50 pt 2C and will sign for 8x5.5. I don't think he accepts that though.

I think you may have misunderstood the central message of my post. I agree about the uncertainty--managing that risk is what it's all about. When I stated the bolded I was referring to understanding the calculated range of risk, between a 0.6 PPG and 0.9 PPG big, strong, skilled 2 -way center.
At .65 PPG he is still Bryan Little, but a disappointment, considering he put up .75 PPG as a 20 year old.
At .85 PPG he projects as an elite 2-way centre and that is not much of a stretch.

Based on the above, I would offer him this summer, without hesitation, an 8 year extension at ~ Kyle Connor money. Considering where the cap is likely to be in 2030, when the deal ends, it could be a franchise-defining deal. There are player specific risks and macro-economic risks involved, but my point was that you have to take those calculated risks to differentiate yourself from the pack and win.

For comparison's sake, I would not offer a long extension to Laine--his ceiling is higher but his floor is way lower, for a number of reasons. That is more of a gamble and is way beyond my comfort zone.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think you may have misunderstood the central message of my post. I agree about the uncertainty--managing that risk is what it's all about. When I stated the bolded I was referring to understanding the calculated range of risk, between a 0.6 PPG and 0.9 PPG big, strong, skilled 2 -way center.
At .65 PPG he is still Bryan Little, but a disappointment, considering he put up .75 PPG as a 20 year old.
At .85 PPG he projects as an elite 2-way centre and that is not much of a stretch.

Based on the above, I would offer him this summer, without hesitation, an 8 year extension at ~ Kyle Connor money. Considering where the cap is likely to be in 2030, when the deal ends, it could be a franchise-defining deal. There are player specific risks and macro-economic risks involved, but my point was that you have to take those calculated risks to differentiate yourself from the pack and win.

For comparison's sake, I would not offer a long extension to Laine--his ceiling is higher but his floor is way lower, for a number of reasons. That is more of a gamble and is way beyond my comfort zone.

I'm usually the one here pushing risk taking. But they need to be the right risks. I'm more inclined to gamble on players/prospects/picks/etc than on contracts.

Based on what we have seen of PLD so far? I would not do that. IMO, you sign players at the right amount by the standard of the day when they are signed. Cap inflation is already built in so paying above market on the assumption that it will look OK in x years is doubling the allowance for cap inflation.

I would have no problem offering Dubois 8 years but 6 mil AAV would be enough gamble for me. I don't think he would accept that.

The comparison to Laine is that both were given 2 year bridge deals - under different circumstances. One year in, both failed to demonstrate that they should get long term big money.

The day after the trade, I probably would have done the deal you are talking about. But he has been underwhelming so far. I like him, and he is an adequate 2C. His physicality is welcome. But that is all. No franchise defining star. No future 1C either.

 

[HHel]

When Gallant is coaching...

Or Tortorella...

 

[Jet]

He was great with the Jackets. It’s clearly a Jets system issue. He’s either not comfortable with how it’s being run and not playing to his skill set. I’d fully expect him to be back to his old self next year.

But wasnt the reason he was on the outs with torts a lot of what were seeing?

Kinda supports Whileee s theory

 

[WolfHouse]

But wasnt the reason he was on the outs with torts a lot of what were seeing?

Kinda supports Whileee s theory

PLD had really good fancy stats in CBJ... probably better than he has on the Jets.

One season of Copp-PLD-Ehlers would bump him back up to 50-60 points imo

 

[JetsUK]

PLD had really good fancy stats in CBJ... probably better than he has on the Jets.

One season of Copp-PLD-Ehlers would bump him back up to 50-60 points imo

Yep, I agree.

He's a quick-skating playmaker, who can also score. He isn't a prototypical power forward, IMO, despite his size and strength. If you home in on him during games he's making really good smart, deft passes all the time -- weirdly, he'd have made a heckuva partner for Laine, IMO.

I have zero concerns that he'll continue developing into a very valuable player, and a true 1C. Don't see him accepting Copp/KC money given that possible trajectory.

 

[TheGovernment]

But wasnt the reason he was on the outs with torts a lot of what were seeing?

Kinda supports Whileee s theory

we really have no idea. It was said he was getting the gears from Torts and the staff. I don’t think it’s the same situation. It’s not like he’s quit playing. PoMo’s idiotic system isn’t working.... for anyone. The entire team sucks, not just him.

 

[WolfHouse]

For sure we know that Statsny is not the right LW for PLD... he's a finesse set up man - but PLD is also kind of a set up guy - now without Ehlers, there's no trigger man on that line at all

 

[10Ducky10]

For sure we know that Statsny is not the right LW for PLD... he's a finesse set up man - but PLD is also kind of a set up guy - now without Ehlers, there's no trigger man on that line at all

He's on pace for a 39 point season in an 82 game schedule. PLD needs to step up his game, plain and simple.

 

[sipowicz]

Pierre Luc Du'Bust

 

[Jet]

For sure we know that Statsny is not the right LW for PLD... he's a finesse set up man - but PLD is also kind of a set up guy - now without Ehlers, there's no trigger man on that line at all

It's probably trying to get Dubois to shoot more. He has a good shot and being the trigger man and having the puck on his stick more is probably a good thing. He's handling the puck a lot better in traffic the past few games, using his size a lot better. He's getting some prime looks and those are going to start going in.

I'm excited to see what he can do in the playoffs. I'm hoping it's a bit of a mental reset for him.

 

[BatVader]

As I’ve said elsewhere, I’m not judging any player on this year and am happy to wait and give PLD another season to get into gear and up his game.
I’m still very happy with the trade and hoping Chevy gets him signed long term.

 

[Hunter368]

As I’ve said elsewhere, I’m not judging any player on this year and am happy to wait and give PLD another season to get into gear and up his game.
I’m still very happy with the trade and hoping Chevy gets him signed long term.

50ish games doesn’t diminish his career performances previously, very few players on our team has had a good year, plus had lots of issues happen this year that would negatively effect many players.

I’m not judging his performance until after next season is over.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I have to say that I sympathize with Torts the way Dubois has played the past several games before the last two games versus Ottawa and Vancouver. He actually was visibly working hard and generating some good chances in the last couple of games. However, before that he was constantly giving up on the play, not pursuing the puck with any kind of effort, making half-butted attempts at passes, and generally looking like he was dogging it.

I really hope that his latest effort becomes consistent, and that he's not a player who get frustrated and pouty easily. When he's working hard, he is a very difficult guy to contain. His recent whiffs at open nets will solve itself... the important thing is that he's getting the opportunities. He has also had a habit of being in the wrong place at the right time. That too will correct itself. The bottom line is that he has to play with urgency, intensity, physicality and he has to not overthink the game. Leave the fancy plays to Scheifele, Wheeler and Connor. Dubois should drive to the net.

 

[GumbyCan2]

I might agree if a modest AAV was likely to be an option here. That 6.5 mil salary in the last year of his current contract sets a high starting point for negotiations - regardless of how QO's are calculated. IMO, it sets the AAV too high based on his play so far. I don't want to commit to 7-8 years at 7.5 mil for what we have seen to date.

I don't agree that they know exactly what they are buying in PLD. That's the problem. It would be different if they did. Or maybe they do. Maybe they know he is a 45-50 pt 2C and will sign for 8x5.5. I don't think he accepts that though.

Tough to predict in PLD as per this years performance or production outcome. An outlier situation unless this is what we see out of this Jets core, management, leadership and coaching, going forward.
Quarantining before 1/2 way into a shortened season, being traded but not getting to jump right in with trying to fit on-the-fly, heat-of-the-battle. Then being banged up shortly after quarantine finished. Then joining the potentually sinking ship the coaching, leadership were/ are providing.
PLD has had different linemates every couple games and differing role, icetime. Tough for younger guy coming to new organization and not wanting to rock the boat, disrespect new bosses. No fans in the stands can be a motivational grey-cloud for some players. It shouldn't to us blue-collar pentants pay average people but thus is a 1xst for these guys and can't be ignored as to effect.
PLD is signed 1 more year isn't he? No need to rush speculation on his next contract. I have never understood this expectation that an NHL player needs to be resigned a year ahead of contract end date??
Or the message gets sent out that player/ team rift is evident and the relationship is soured. Time to trade him or resign tomorrow, otherwise the situation is in disrepair?

 

[GumbyCan2]

I have to say that I sympathize with Torts the way Dubois has played the past several games before the last two games versus Ottawa and Vancouver. He actually was visibly working hard and generating some good chances in the last couple of games. However, before that he was constantly giving up on the play, not pursuing the puck with any kind of effort, making half-butted attempts at passes, and generally looking like he was dogging it.

I really hope that his latest effort becomes consistent, and that he's not a player who get frustrated and pouty easily. When he's working hard, he is a very difficult guy to contain. His recent whiffs at open nets will solve itself... the important thing is that he's getting the opportunities. He has also had a habit of being in the wrong place at the right time. That too will correct itself. The bottom line is that he has to play with urgency, intensity, physicality and he has to not overthink the game. Leave the fancy plays to Scheifele, Wheeler and Connor. Dubois should drive to the net.

And coaches should identify this, pump him up to bring his qualities to forefront, not trying to change a players whole natural style, habits to suit some mangled coaching structure expectations and a not working team wide system employed.
Us fans need to recognize a players natural bests, play style and tamper expectations of a dazzling puck carrying, Gretzky-like scoring game changer.
You have correctly identified PLD's strengths to being hard on the opposition in forecheck, neutral zone coverage and deep in our own zone. Then to get pucks to slick skating, driving teammates and to crash hard on opposition scoring zones and net-front and along the deep boards. Drawing Dmen attention to him and pushing the play.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Tough to predict in PLD as per this years performance or production outcome. An outlier situation unless this is what we see out of this Jets core, management, leadership and coaching, going forward.
Quarantining before 1/2 way into a shortened season, being traded but not getting to jump right in with trying to fit on-the-fly, heat-of-the-battle. Then being banged up shortly after quarantine finished. Then joining the potentually sinking ship the coaching, leadership were/ are providing.
PLD has had different linemates every couple games and differing role, icetime. Tough for younger guy coming to new organization and not wanting to rock the boat, disrespect new bosses. No fans in the stands can be a motivational grey-cloud for some players. It shouldn't to us blue-collar pentants pay average people but thus is a 1xst for these guys and can't be ignored as to effect.
PLD is signed 1 more year isn't he? No need to rush speculation on his next contract. I have never understood this expectation that an NHL player needs to be resigned a year ahead of contract end date??
Or the message gets sent out that player/ team rift is evident and the relationship is soured. Time to trade him or resign tomorrow, otherwise the situation is in disrepair?

I agree. The problem with extending PLD now is that we just don't know what we have. There can be lots of explanations for him having an off year. He could explode next year and cost us a bundle. Or he could be just like has been so far this year and we save a bundle by not overpaying him now.

It is a gamble if we sign him and if we don't. That is unless he signs long term for a reasonable AAV given his recent play. I think that is unlikely. I don't think a big money contract is a responsible option at this time. Maybe he shows up big time in the PO and removes some of the doubt. Maybe he does not.

 

[PhilJets]

First he needs more ice time.

Hard to sign someone at 7M+ playing 15mins a game. Jets need to work that problem out.
Not many players can score 60+ points with that minutes let alone 70+ points. Unless he gets paired on a line with points creator. He is not a staple PP1 and Pk1 also. Hopefully those changes.

Next year will be more telling Maurice is not using him as the main (C) guy. But Scheifele is the main guy so i am not sure if much will change. Now that Lowry is signed so he will take some of those minutes away.

 

[10Ducky10]

It'd not really a good time to extend on PLD's behalf.
He's had a poor season and he knows it.
He will be determined to get better next for his next deal and I think some pride.

I am so pumped to see him in the playoffs. After Gravol bounced off of him the Nucks fans were saying PLD turtled and how much better Gravol is than PLD. I guess they didn't see that it was PLD that went after Gravol, not the other way around.

If I were him, I wouldn't extend after this season unless Chevy offered me a deal I couldn't refuse and we know he isn't going to do that.

Best case senario, he is paired with Ehlers and KC next year but I see Stastny extending and playing on his wing.

As much as I like PLD, I'd offer him up with a 1st this year, a 2nd in 2022 and Copper for Eichel with 1.5m retained.
We'd have the best one-two punch in the league.

 

[GaryPoppins]

I think the guy is a gamer, maybe still dealing with a lingering injury that hasn’t really resolved itself? Combine that with inconsistent line mates, a horrific system with little to no practice time?

I’m not worried tbh and I expect him to go beast mode in the playoffs.

 

[kanadalainen]

PLD has game. Lets see how he does in these playoffs... I suspect some here will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[DRW204]

playoffs here, time for the guy to step-up. expecting ppg+

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

His game has been progressively getting better and I have hope that will continue through into playoffs. Playoff hockey can be a grind which I think benefits PLDs style of game.