Player Discussion: Martin Jones

[Sharksfan83]

Im for swapping a low end pick + dell for a backup on an expiring contract (is there one?). I'm not ok for adding someone for a good prospect or high pick (2nd).

 

[Barrie22]

Games after his shut out against minny on december 18th. 20 games.

Jones games above .930 sv %. 6 times.
Jones above .920 sv%. 3 times.
Jones above .915 sv%. 1 time.
Jones above .900 sv%. 1 time.
Jones below .900 sv%. 9 times.

Before the shut out 24 games.

Jones above .930 sv%. 5 times.
Jones above .920 sv%. 0 times.
Jones above .915 sv%. 3 times.
Jones above .900 sv%. 5 times.
Jones below .900 sv%. 11 times.

 

[Levie]

There aren't any other options in the trade market. Might be time to start praying to god.

 

[Patty Ice]

Weird. He didn’t look great against Boston and some of his 2 goals per games lately have been fluffy, but he’s gotten significantly better since the ASG. Not sure why peeps are getting ruffled over a really weird game.

Probably because it has been that way ALL YEAR LONG. With the season 3/4 completed, it's a bit more worrisome for folks now.

 

[Alaskanice]

Weird. He didn’t look great against Boston and some of his 2 goals per games lately have been fluffy, but he’s gotten significantly better since the ASG. Not sure why peeps are getting ruffled over a really weird game.

Ruffled? It’s downright maniacal.

This is why I don’t enjoy the GDT any longer. It’s as if people are lying in wait for some bad play and they can blame and go on and on. It’s depressing to me that reactions can be so brutal. It’s entertainment. It’s supposed to be fun.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Ruffled? It’s downright maniacal.

This is why I don’t enjoy the GDT any longer. It’s as if people are lying in wait for some bad play and they can blame and go on and on. It’s depressing to me that reactions can be so brutal. It’s entertainment. It’s supposed to be fun.

People treat sports differently. Some are more vested emotionally than others.

There are people showing the numbers/statistics Jones has had through the year to show the inconsistency in his performance and the reason for their concern with him being our starting goalie. Sure some people are more 'concerned' than others but your reaction simply comes off as, 'Its entertainment. If you cannot enjoy it then stop watching'.

 

[LeeIFBB]

Also, some people are sadists.

 

[Alaskanice]

People treat sports differently. Some are more vested emotionally than others.

There are people showing the numbers/statistics Jones has had through the year to show the inconsistency in his performance and the reason for their concern with him being our starting goalie. Sure some people are more 'concerned' than others but your reaction simply comes off as, 'Its entertainment. If you cannot enjoy it then stop watching'.

I won’t tell anyone not to watch or even to have their opinions posted. I’m not that important.
This is why I chose to refrain from reading and posting on the GDT. It depresses me. The scrutiny over every pass or play. Vilifying the skating or lack of whatever.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Ruffled? It’s downright maniacal.

This is why I don’t enjoy the GDT any longer. It’s as if people are lying in wait for some bad play and they can blame and go on and on. It’s depressing to me that reactions can be so brutal. It’s entertainment. It’s supposed to be fun.

This is why I love the occasional "blow it up!!" talk. Have fun watching a bottom feeder and acting like your expectations will be different in a rebuild. This place would be so depressing.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

The thing with Jones that is so frustrating is that he’s not an athletic goalie but one that relies on positioning and technique but both those have been poor this year.

He’s slow to react and seems to lack hockey iq in certain situations. Sadly this is part that you cannot teach. Niemi was great when things were chaotic but he had poor fundamentals.

People are frustrated because Jones doesn’t pass the eye test and the stats bear out that he was been one of the worst goalies in the NHL.

Sure the defense has been poor at times but had Jones been average this year the team would have at least 5-7 more points and I’m probably underselling that.

 

[Bleedred]

If there's one guy on the team that deserves to be called out, it's Jones. First of all, he plays the most important position in the game. So him having a bad game hurts a lot more and is much more costly than Melker Karlsson having a bad game. It's even more costly than the two shit heads on D having a bad game, but probably not too much more.

He's been arguably the worst player on what should be the best team in the West, if he weren't having such a poor season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

@treefiddy

I was just looking at Moneypuck's SV% above expected statistic, and one thing that jumped out at me was that that the top-5 starting goaltenders in the stat are all starting goaltenders on teams that are top-6 in points percentage. The one goaltender whose team is in the top-6 in points percentage, but who also isn't in the top-5 in this state, is Martin Jones. 6th in the stat is Jimmy Howard, which is almost too funny of a coincidence to be true.

So, I went ahead and took a closer look at things. I looked at every starting goaltender's points percentage in decisions and tried to see if there was a correlation between their save% above expected and their winning percentage.

Indeed, there was a strong correlation; on average, for every 1% by which save percentage above expected increases, the goaltenders's winning percentage increases by 13%. I included a chart because it's easier to visualize things that way.

The x-axis is SV% above expected and the y-axis is points percentage. So, hypothetically, top-right is good goalies on good teams, bottom-left is bad goalies on bad teams, top-left is bad goalies on bad teams, and bottom-right is good goalies on bad teams. I highlighted Martin Jones.

 

[KirbyDots]

 

[Dicdonya]

Until there is a good argument for how a shit goalie can be an amazing goalie on the PK(like top 5 in the league good), that is somehow is not directly influenced be the change in defensive responsibilities of his teammates, compared to ES. Or how two goalies, and several "defensive" players all suddenly drop off around the same time, but its not the system causing it, just unlucky I guess. Or why having about 1/3rd of the limited shots(some of the least in the league) you face wind up being high danger shots, and that somehow that disparity should not affect your play.

Until anyone can come up with logical explanations of how these things not only shouldn't matter, but indicate Jones sucks balls, I am not ready to toss him to the wolves.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Until there is a good argument for how a **** goalie can be an amazing goalie on the PK(like top 5 in the league good), that is somehow is not directly influenced be the change in defensive responsibilities of his teammates, compared to ES. Or how two goalies, and several "defensive" players all suddenly drop off around the same time, but its not the system causing it, just unlucky I guess. Or why having about 1/3rd of the limited shots(some of the least in the league) you face wind up being high danger shots, and that somehow that disparity should not affect your play.

Until anyone can come up with logical explanations of how these things not only shouldn't matter, but indicate Jones sucks balls, I am not ready to toss him to the wolves.

On the PK, I think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ strengths are more suited to strong PK’ing than strong 5V5 play. He has good size and positioning and he does well with low shots, which helps on the PK. His poor lateral movement, and lack of confidence on breakaways which leads to him being deeper in his crease and frequently getting beat on the short side, are not good for 5V5 play. Having said that, I do think San Jose does a better job of defending on the PK than 5V5 and IIRC, that difference is reflected in Dell’s numbers as well. And Jones’ career 5V5 numbers roughly match his career PK numbers, so I definitely think there’s something to be said for the team defense on the PK Vs 5V5. But I still think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ skills, as of today, are better suited to the PK than they are to 5V5 play.

DeBoer’s new system didn’t ruin Vlasic, Braun, and Jones. All 3 of those players began to clearly decline in 2016-2017 when the Sharks were playing the same defensive, low event system in which Braun/Vlasic/Jones were all very successful in 2015-2016. I’m not the biggest fan of his new system and I do think it hurt those guys, but it is not the biggest reason for their decline - their decline is.

 

[Bleedred]

On the PK, I think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ strengths are more suited to strong PK’ing than strong 5V5 play. He has good size and positioning and he does well with low shots, which helps on the PK. His poor lateral movement, and lack of confidence on breakaways which leads to him being deeper in his crease and frequently getting beat on the short side, are not good for 5V5 play. Having said that, I do think San Jose does a better job of defending on the PK than 5V5 and IIRC, that difference is reflected in Dell’s numbers as well. And Jones’ career 5V5 numbers roughly match his career PK numbers, so I definitely think there’s something to be said for the team defense on the PK Vs 5V5. But I still think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ skills, as of today, are better suited to the PK than they are to 5V5 play.

DeBoer’s new system didn’t ruin Vlasic, Braun, and Jones. All 3 of those players began to clearly decline in 2016-2017 when the Sharks were playing the same defensive, low event system in which Braun/Vlasic/Jones were all very successful in 2015-2016. I’m not the biggest fan of his new system and I do think it hurt those guys, but it is not the biggest reason for their decline - their decline is.

I agree with most of this, but I don't believe Jones is definitely on the decline. I think he's just an average goalie (but that's all he is, just average, none of this ''Elite'' none of this ''Top-10'' or whatever crap that the media and main board tries to convince me) that's having a really bad year.

I still believe he'll bounce back next year, as a league average goalie or at least near league average. Perhaps a bit above league average (like last year) or right around or just below league average (like 16-17). I don't think there's enough to say he's declining yet like Braun and Vlasic, who have been bad for multiple years in a row now. This is Jones first really bad season, while he's had two other mediocre years. One of those years being in very limited action as the backup in LA and the other was 16-17.

I think Jones is just average and a goalie that's just average is probably more prone to this type of a season than a goalie that's really good, which Jones absolutely is not really good.

Like I've said, even before this year and I still believe it. I think there's only 5-7 teams in the NHL that don't have at least one goalie better than Jones and there's probably 25 teams with a goalie that's either equal or better than Jones. There's not 25 teams with at least one goalie better than Jones, but there are 25 teams that have a goalie that's at least as good (or at least as average) as Jones, if not better.

The only teams that don't have at least one goalie that's definitely not as good as Jones are Carolina, New Jersey, Detroit, Ottawa and Edmonton definitely. And maybe Buffalo and Calgary. I'd like to say Vancouver is another, but if Markstrom isn't really as good as Jones then it's not even marginal. I might actually say Florida as of right now does not have a goalie as good as Jones, if only because Luongo looks about cooked and Reimer isn't really as good as Jones.

 

[tiburon12]

On the PK, I think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ strengths are more suited to strong PK’ing than strong 5V5 play. He has good size and positioning and he does well with low shots, which helps on the PK. His poor lateral movement, and lack of confidence on breakaways which leads to him being deeper in his crease and frequently getting beat on the short side, are not good for 5V5 play. Having said that, I do think San Jose does a better job of defending on the PK than 5V5 and IIRC, that difference is reflected in Dell’s numbers as well. And Jones’ career 5V5 numbers roughly match his career PK numbers, so I definitely think there’s something to be said for the team defense on the PK Vs 5V5. But I still think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ skills, as of today, are better suited to the PK than they are to 5V5 play.

DeBoer’s new system didn’t ruin Vlasic, Braun, and Jones. All 3 of those players began to clearly decline in 2016-2017 when the Sharks were playing the same defensive, low event system in which Braun/Vlasic/Jones were all very successful in 2015-2016. I’m not the biggest fan of his new system and I do think it hurt those guys, but it is not the biggest reason for their decline - their decline is.

It also helps that on the PK we arent giving up breakaways or 2-1's. If we look at Jones' last few games at 5v5, he was not in the best position to make saves on a majority of the goals against.

Boston:

• Chara - Savable
• Khulman - 2-1 against
• Debrusk - Breakaway
• Wagner - No defensive coverage (two point blank shots from the crease)

Vancouver:

• Rousell - breakaway
• Boeser - Savable

Washington:

• Vrana - 3-2 and a bad bounce
• Ovechkin - Meier leaves the best scorer of all time wide open on a rush
• Oshie - breakaway

Vancouver:

• Horvat - Savable, but defense needs to be better and not leave a man open
• Pouliot - defensive lapse leads to a one timer from 5 feet out

Calgary

• Jankowski - Jones in position to make save but is tipped last minute

thats 12 5v5 goals against and 3 are one he should have. 4 breakaways or 2-1. The rest are defensive lapses that lead to goals.

Jones is not as big a problem as we are making it out to be. Having said that, he sucks at breakaways and needs to get better

 

[Nighthock]

Howard is available. Do it.

 

[Dicdonya]

On the PK, I think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ strengths are more suited to strong PK’ing than strong 5V5 play. He has good size and positioning and he does well with low shots, which helps on the PK. His poor lateral movement, and lack of confidence on breakaways which leads to him being deeper in his crease and frequently getting beat on the short side, are not good for 5V5 play. Having said that, I do think San Jose does a better job of defending on the PK than 5V5 and IIRC, that difference is reflected in Dell’s numbers as well. And Jones’ career 5V5 numbers roughly match his career PK numbers, so I definitely think there’s something to be said for the team defense on the PK Vs 5V5. But I still think it’s pretty obvious that Jones’ skills, as of today, are better suited to the PK than they are to 5V5 play.

DeBoer’s new system didn’t ruin Vlasic, Braun, and Jones. All 3 of those players began to clearly decline in 2016-2017 when the Sharks were playing the same defensive, low event system in which Braun/Vlasic/Jones were all very successful in 2015-2016. I’m not the biggest fan of his new system and I do think it hurt those guys, but it is not the biggest reason for their decline - their decline is.

Darn it I typed up a whole big thing and the page crashed yay.

So the abridged version is, Jones has better stats on the PK than at ES, that is highly, highly unusual for a goaltender to post stats like that, and to me that screams, if not outright proves, that our defensive system at ES is doing something antithetical to Jones strengths and we need to change that. Its not that Jones is bad, or horrible like so many are proclaiming, but he is being put constantly in situations he is not suited for and he is failing to perform well in those scenarios. That part is not Jones fault, that is the coaches fault, or the GM's fault for not getting an appropriate goalie for his coach, or vice versa.

Jones currently is facing 30% of shots as HDSA this year at ES, that is the highest percentage of his career with us, and this is his worst year for us. Maybe that is purely a coincidence, I think it is not. The top 11 SV% goalies this year(all .920 or above), who have played at least 1500 mins, have an average of 26% for comparison. No goalie so far(of any who have played a reasonable amount of minutes) that I have found, has 30% of shots faced be HD. Some are close though like Rinne and Lehner, who are having good years. Jones best year for us he was at 26%, and he was facing nearly the same amount of shots that year. So yeah, I think Jones needs to face more shots, but less quality shots, and the coach needs to identify that before its too late, assuming he has not already. Just limiting shots is not gunna help Jones. Jones can handle more shots, its too many high quality shots that is burying him.

Jones is having a terrible year, I have never said otherwise, but my issue is not with his play specifically, but with the system around him, which is giving him way too many quality chances to stop. He needs to save more too, but eventually its just too many, and I have no doubt that it is affecting his play overall as his confidence, and mindset can not be good right now when nearly 1 of 3 shots is gunna be a toughy, and he faces so little shots to begin with, keeping him out of the rhythm of the game.

As for your last paragraph, I do not think the system is 100% the factor in their decline, but its has IMO clearly been an accelerant, and only time will tell if that was a worthwhile gamble.

 

[Sharksfan83]

Darn it I typed up a whole big thing and the page crashed yay.

So the abridged version is, Jones has better stats on the PK than at ES, that is highly, highly unusual for a goaltender to post stats like that, and to me that screams, if not outright proves, that our defensive system at ES is doing something antithetical to Jones strengths and we need to change that. Its not that Jones is bad, or horrible like so many are proclaiming, but he is being put constantly in situations he is not suited for and he is failing to perform well in those scenarios. That part is not Jones fault, that is the coaches fault, or the GM's fault for not getting an appropriate goalie for his coach, or vice versa.

Jones currently is facing 30% of shots as HDSA this year at ES, that is the highest percentage of his career with us, and this is his worst year for us. Maybe that is purely a coincidence, I think it is not. The top 11 SV% goalies this year(all .920 or above), who have played at least 1500 mins, have an average of 26% for comparison. No goalie so far(of any who have played a reasonable amount of minutes) that I have found, has 30% of shots faced be HD. Some are close though like Rinne and Lehner, who are having good years. Jones best year for us he was at 26%, and he was facing nearly the same amount of shots that year. So yeah, I think Jones needs to face more shots, but less quality shots, and the coach needs to identify that before its too late, assuming he has not already. Just limiting shots is not gunna help Jones. Jones can handle more shots, its too many high quality shots that is burying him.

Jones is having a terrible year, I have never said otherwise, but my issue is not with his play specifically, but with the system around him, which is giving him way too many quality chances to stop. He needs to save more too, but eventually its just too many, and I have no doubt that it is affecting his play overall as his confidence, and mindset can not be good right now when nearly 1 of 3 shots is gunna be a toughy, and he faces so little shots to begin with, keeping him out of the rhythm of the game.

As for your last paragraph, I do not think the system is 100% the factor in their decline, but its has IMO clearly been an accelerant, and only time will tell if that was a worthwhile gamble.

I think in the first half of the season, when another 2 on 1 or breakaway happened, he just gave up on the play. He stood there like a mullet and they shot it around him. I think part of that was frustration of what he was watching up the ice. Now it seems he has played himself into a funk, especially on odd man rushes or break aways.

 

[Dicdonya]

I think in the first half of the season, when another 2 on 1 or breakaway happened, he just gave up on the play. He stood there like a mullet and they shot it around him. I think part of that was frustration of what he was watching up the ice. Now it seems he has played himself into a funk, especially on odd man rushes or break aways.

Yeah at this point I have zero doubt that Jones mental state is shaken. Of all the things Jones was or was not in years past, composed was always one of them, and even though he would have bad games, he seemed able to just let them slide off his back. This year it seems to be really affecting him, and he looks shell shocked quite often.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Darn it I typed up a whole big thing and the page crashed yay.

So the abridged version is, Jones has better stats on the PK than at ES, that is highly, highly unusual for a goaltender to post stats like that, and to me that screams, if not outright proves, that our defensive system at ES is doing something antithetical to Jones strengths and we need to change that. Its not that Jones is bad, or horrible like so many are proclaiming, but he is being put constantly in situations he is not suited for and he is failing to perform well in those scenarios. That part is not Jones fault, that is the coaches fault, or the GM's fault for not getting an appropriate goalie for his coach, or vice versa.

Jones currently is facing 30% of shots as HDSA this year at ES, that is the highest percentage of his career with us, and this is his worst year for us. Maybe that is purely a coincidence, I think it is not. The top 11 SV% goalies this year(all .920 or above), who have played at least 1500 mins, have an average of 26% for comparison. No goalie so far(of any who have played a reasonable amount of minutes) that I have found, has 30% of shots faced be HD. Some are close though like Rinne and Lehner, who are having good years. Jones best year for us he was at 26%, and he was facing nearly the same amount of shots that year. So yeah, I think Jones needs to face more shots, but less quality shots, and the coach needs to identify that before its too late, assuming he has not already. Just limiting shots is not gunna help Jones. Jones can handle more shots, its too many high quality shots that is burying him.

Jones is having a terrible year, I have never said otherwise, but my issue is not with his play specifically, but with the system around him, which is giving him way too many quality chances to stop. He needs to save more too, but eventually its just too many, and I have no doubt that it is affecting his play overall as his confidence, and mindset can not be good right now when nearly 1 of 3 shots is gunna be a toughy, and he faces so little shots to begin with, keeping him out of the rhythm of the game.

As for your last paragraph, I do not think the system is 100% the factor in their decline, but its has IMO clearly been an accelerant, and only time will tell if that was a worthwhile gamble.

I've always said that there were two sides to the story. One of them being poor team defense, which does a fantastic job of suppressing shots, but a terrible job of suppressing grade A, high-end chances. The other of them being Martin Jones, who has just been a bad goaltender this season.

I completely agree that the team does a good job of playing team defense in front of Jones on the PK. And the metrics that I'm looking at - specifically this save% above expected from Moneypuck - doesn't seem to accurately adjust for the level of team defense that is being played. Because it says that Martin Jones is the 3rd best PK starter in the NHL and by far the worst starter at 5V5. (And 6th worst when you put it all together) But last season, he was only slightly better on the PK (though thoroughly mediocre on both) and the season before that, he was slightly better at 5V5. So, clearly these metrics don't do a perfect job of quantifying the team defense and the difficulty of shots that a goaltender faces. I don't even know if they're better than each of HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV%.

But, even just HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV% all say that Jones has been very bad. And SV% above expected says that Jones has been very bad. And somebody like Bleedred, who studies goaltenders and has watched every single goal that has been scored on a manned net this season, says Jones has been very bad. Based on a binary analysis of whether each goal was stoppable or not, Jones performs very poorly in his "stoppable goals" stat as well. IIRC, he said that only one goaltender had allowed more stoppable goals than Jones this season.

It's hard for me not to have an issue with Jones' play specifically, though. I'm not expecting him to be Frederik Andersen and bail out a bad defense on a nightly basis. But the fact is that he does very poorly on medium danger shots and low danger shots, and he is visibly struggling. Just by the eye test, it looks like the book is out on him. Every single breakaway where the shooter goes short side top corner, he gets beat. He usually makes the save if they go 5-hole or low side but he gets beat every time they go short side top corner. Watching him do that so often, I almost wonder if I could beat him with one of those short side top corner flicks.

Regarding the system change, I think the more recent adjustments that were made actually make the system worth it. Since December 2, our 5V5 GF/60 is 3.55 and 2nd place Tampa is at 3.2, while our GA/60 is only 19th at 2.67, and our GF% is 4th at 57.06%. All still rocking the league's worst 5V5 SV%, at an improved 90.05%. (It was 89.27% in the 27 games before that.)

And if you're going to blame the system for the drop-off of Vlasic/Braun/Jones, then you have to give it credit for what it has done for the other players - especially the forwards. Kane/Hertl/Burns/Pavelski/Karlsson are all above a point per game, and Kane/Meier/Hertl/Burns/Pavelski/Couture are all top-30 in 5V5 points with at least 20. So, the more recent system change on December 2nd has done more good than bad. Even if it totally ruined the careers of guys like Vlasic/Braun/Jones, it has pushed guys like Kane, Hertl, and Pavelski way above what they would be without it. And other defensemen like Simek have stepped in and played comfortably in PDB's new system, while Burns and Karlsson are debatably playing the best hockey of their career. So it's not killing all of the defensemen either. It's just killing two defensemen and one goaltender that already showed signs of decline before the system was implemented.

They could still stand to tighten up defensively and I hope they do but the improvement is clear. And when you've got a system in place that is scoring 3.55 GF/60 at 5V5 and winning most games, you can't change that system in order to protect your goaltender.

The bottom line is that if your goaltender is so vulnerable that you have to cancel out the best offense in the NHL in order to shelter him, then you need a new goaltender.

 

[tiburon12]

The bottom line is that if your goaltender is so vulnerable that you have to cancel out the best offense in the NHL in order to shelter him, then you need a new goaltender.

(I deleted the first part because it was so long, but good analysis)

This statement to me is a black/white approach when there is more nuance needed, though i understand your point fully.

At this stage in the seasons, and considering we are a top-5 team, I would argue that changing goalies now would be a terrible idea. It would require spending assets, of which we are limited, for a bandaid fix. Jones is in year one of a long deal, and if the intent is to trade him, then we are playing the wrong game by getting a replacement goalie for the playoffs. That tanks his value. Additionally, the goalies that are out there are marginally better at best, or if objectively better, they will cost more.

On the surface, no doubt, if a goalie is a major liability and costing the team wins consistently, then he needs to be replaced. But that isnt the situation in San Jose right now. Jones has been noticeably better of late, and i pointed out in a post above that of the last 12 goals against at 5v5, Jones was to blame for 3 of them at most. Our team is good enough offensively to overcome that and they have all season.

 

[Dicdonya]

I've always said that there were two sides to the story. One of them being poor team defense, which does a fantastic job of suppressing shots, but a terrible job of suppressing grade A, high-end chances. The other of them being Martin Jones, who has just been a bad goaltender this season.

I completely agree that the team does a good job of playing team defense in front of Jones on the PK. And the metrics that I'm looking at - specifically this save% above expected from Moneypuck - doesn't seem to accurately adjust for the level of team defense that is being played. Because it says that Martin Jones is the 3rd best PK starter in the NHL and by far the worst starter at 5V5. (And 6th worst when you put it all together) But last season, he was only slightly better on the PK (though thoroughly mediocre on both) and the season before that, he was slightly better at 5V5. So, clearly these metrics don't do a perfect job of quantifying the team defense and the difficulty of shots that a goaltender faces. I don't even know if they're better than each of HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV%.

But, even just HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV% all say that Jones has been very bad. And SV% above expected says that Jones has been very bad. And somebody like Bleedred, who studies goaltenders and has watched every single goal that has been scored on a manned net this season, says Jones has been very bad. Based on a binary analysis of whether each goal was stoppable or not, Jones performs very poorly in his "stoppable goals" stat as well. IIRC, he said that only one goaltender had allowed more stoppable goals than Jones this season.

It's hard for me not to have an issue with Jones' play specifically, though. I'm not expecting him to be Frederik Andersen and bail out a bad defense on a nightly basis. But the fact is that he does very poorly on medium danger shots and low danger shots, and he is visibly struggling. Just by the eye test, it looks like the book is out on him. Every single breakaway where the shooter goes short side top corner, he gets beat. He usually makes the save if they go 5-hole or low side but he gets beat every time they go short side top corner. Watching him do that so often, I almost wonder if I could beat him with one of those short side top corner flicks.

Regarding the system change, I think the more recent adjustments that were made actually make the system worth it. Since December 2, our 5V5 GF/60 is 3.55 and 2nd place Tampa is at 3.2, while our GA/60 is only 19th at 2.67, and our GF% is 4th at 57.06%. All still rocking the league's worst 5V5 SV%, at an improved 90.05%. (It was 89.27% in the 27 games before that.)

And if you're going to blame the system for the drop-off of Vlasic/Braun/Jones, then you have to give it credit for what it has done for the other players - especially the forwards. Kane/Hertl/Burns/Pavelski/Karlsson are all above a point per game, and Kane/Meier/Hertl/Burns/Pavelski/Couture are all top-30 in 5V5 points with at least 20. So, the more recent system change on December 2nd has done more good than bad. Even if it totally ruined the careers of guys like Vlasic/Braun/Jones, it has pushed guys like Kane, Hertl, and Pavelski way above what they would be without it. And other defensemen like Simek have stepped in and played comfortably in PDB's new system, while Burns and Karlsson are debatably playing the best hockey of their career. So it's not killing all of the defensemen either. It's just killing two defensemen and one goaltender that already showed signs of decline before the system was implemented.

They could still stand to tighten up defensively and I hope they do but the improvement is clear. And when you've got a system in place that is scoring 3.55 GF/60 at 5V5 and winning most games, you can't change that system in order to protect your goaltender.

The bottom line is that if your goaltender is so vulnerable that you have to cancel out the best offense in the NHL in order to shelter him, then you need a new goaltender.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, and having a conversation about Jones is far better then whatever has been happening in the GDT's lately, where its black or white, and nothing but rage. So even though we are not 100% agreeing, I respect and appreciate you not being hyperbolic.

Here is what I know, Jones HDSA/60 have gone up every single year he has been here. Every single year his HDGAA, GAA and SV% have gotten worse along with it. It is the quantity of HD shots that is really burying him. This tells me we need to limit those high danger chances if we want .925 SV% Jones back. As long as we are getting fisted, proportion wise, in the high danger chances category, Jones is probably going to suck. We need him to not suck, so we need to change the system, or expend assets to get a different goalie who we hope can fair well in our current system where Jones cannot. With Dell going from great backup, to not great backup, I am very dubious of assuming these issues will not manifest on what ever other goalie we bring in. I just do not think low shot totals, mixed with a high percentage of those shots being high danger, is a good environment for a goalie, but maybe we will find out by the trade deadline and beyond.

I absolutely give his system credit for helping other players. That is why I said time will tell if its a gamble worth taking. Can we win with a team seemingly more focused on the offensive side of the ice, or players, or is that working now in the regular season, but will get shut down in the playoffs and leave us f***ed. I don't know.

edit- Took out a sentence because I read my notes wrong. Not his second best hdsv% year.

 

[tiburon12]

Can we win with a team seemingly more focused on the offensive side of the ice, or players, or is that working now in the regular season, but will get shut down in the playoffs and leave us ****ed. I don't know.

I think we can. When players "elevate their game" in the playoffs, one of the chiefly noticeable aspects is skating to get up/back into the play. A player in the regular season may stop backchecking at 100% effort because it's not a critical part of a non-critical game. But in the playoffs, every moment is critical and players react accordingly.

It's a cliché, but a true one, that "things tighten up in the playoffs". I expect our team to follow suit, not open up more and play fire wagon hockey. I'm of the belief it will happen naturally and we will be ok.