Player Discussion: Martin Jones

[Pinkfloyd]

That is my problem right there. The whole team needs to make adjustments around the 1 goalie who is failing to provide league-average goal tending.

If this is not what makes DW make a move for a goalie, I don't know what will. I know you have always been an advocate of D first and goalie 2nd and while I agree to a point, the goalie is still the last man in front of the net. If he fails in doing an average job, so will the team. I remember you were unhappy about us giving up a 1st for Jones. I was thrilled that we had a starting goalie. You were also unhappy at the amount of money that Jones got in his contract. I thought that was fine at that time. I still have zero issues with the draft pick given up and the contract Jones got. But I am still not going to defend him for the ****ty goaltending he has provided. I am also not confident that Jones turns it around in time for the playoffs. I have seen little to no semblance of consistency from him over the season. Outside a few games here and there, he has been fairly bad.

The goalie market is pretty slim pickings especially when the Sharks only really have a 2nd and average level prospects. So if they simply cannot get a goalie what do you do? What I said is all they have as a choice.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Sharks didnt allow a SOG for over 1/3rd of the game and still lost though.

Yup. The team has put up solid defensive efforts more consistently as of late. They’ve got games where they’re allowing no shots on goal, for long periods of time, against teams like Tampa. It’s not perfect but there’s been a notable improvement. The goaltending, outside of one stretch, hasn’t shown the same type of improvement.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is what I am talking about.

I'm not sure on the math on that one.

 

[Beethovens 10th]

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm not sure on the math on that one.

For the Sharks to see a +33 swing, they’d need an increase of 1.9% in SV%. They’re currently at 89.1% so for that to be true, league average would need to be at 91% and not 90.2%. If their save percentage was league median 90.25%, they would get a +19-20 swing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

For the Sharks to see a +33 swing, they’d need an increase of 1.9% in SV%. They’re currently at 89.1% so for that to be true, league average would need to be at 91% and not 90.2%. If their save percentage was league median 90.25%, they would get a +19-20 swing.

Yeah, I wasn't certain about the league average save percentage number there because .902 save percentage for Jones is like a seven goal difference. I don't think it's that small of a difference.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

The goalie market is pretty slim pickings especially when the Sharks only really have a 2nd and average level prospects. So if they simply cannot get a goalie what do you do? What I said is all they have as a choice.

Yeah. The goalie market is pretty thin. If Jones was playing his career average, we would not even be having a discussion of replacing him. Right now, unfortunately, league average is an upgrade over what Jones is providing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yeah. The goalie market is pretty thin. If Jones was playing his career average, we would not even be having a discussion of replacing him. Right now, unfortunately, league average is an upgrade over what Jones is providing.

He's been doing that since the All-Star Break even with two hiccups against Washington and Boston. I'm still seeing enough there to warrant continuing with Jones since they also don't have other real options.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yeah, I wasn't certain about the league average save percentage number there because .902 save percentage for Jones is like a seven goal difference. I don't think it's that small of a difference.

Remember this includes both goaltenders and Dell’s numbers are weak enough that he’s done some serious damage. It also includes empty net situations.

If you look at starting goaltenders, average was .908 last I heard. That would be a +15 swing for Jones which matches Hockey Reference’s GSAA that says Jones is at -15.08 this season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Remember this includes both goaltenders and Dell’s numbers are weak enough that he’s done some serious damage. It also includes empty net situations.

If you look at starting goaltenders, average was .908 last I heard. That would be a +15 swing for Jones which matches Hockey Reference’s GSAA that says Jones is at -15.08 this season.

And since the All-Star Break, that .908 average is basically one more save that was a goal from Jones. He's getting better but it's hard to see that after a game like yesterday's.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

And since the All-Star Break, that .908 average is basically one more save that was a goal from Jones. He's getting better but it's hard to see that after a game like yesterday's.

I think that’s fair and I think a lot of us - myself included - are getting too emotional and overreactionary after a very painful stunner loss. But I still think we could look into adding a backup in order to take some of the load off Jones and provide an insurance policy if he continues this in the playoffs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think that’s fair and I think a lot of us - myself included - are getting too emotional and overreactionary after a very painful stunner loss. But I still think we could look into adding a backup in order to take some of the load off Jones and provide an insurance policy if he continues this in the playoffs.

I think it's beneficial to do something like a Dell for Miller straight swap since it unloads a contract for next year for at the very least a solid backup even in limited starts this year. Get the Ducks to retain 50% since they're getting the better asset in the future. Then the team opens up more salary for the deadline while not losing a future asset to be used to make a deal.

 

[Patty Ice]

He's gone Jim Carey. End of discussion.

 

[SharksAddict]

I don't know that they have much choice at the moment other than hoping Jones shows up come playoff time. They are pretty much saddled with his contract. Good luck getting any team to take that on.

They could go after a 1B type here in the next week or so but I don't see that happening because of the acquisition cost.

 

[tiburon12]

*Long post warning*

This situation is incredibly uncomfortable. I dont think Jones has been great, however i don't think he has been as bad as his numbers show. He has let in some stinkers for sure, no doubt about that, but i'm going argue that we should continue forward with him and make defensive tweaks to overcome his deficiencies.

Taking the Boston game into consideration, I think we can absolve him on the Krug (slapper from in tight on a moving screen on the PP), Khulman (if Karlsson holds the line, a forward needs to get back), and Wagner (obviously, he made the key save there too) goals. Chara's i think he should have saved, but it was a Chara blast and a wobbly puck; i imagine that's hard to track. He 100% needs to save the DeBrusk goal and needs to be less aggressive on the OT winner (though Kane's bad change is a major factor too). Our team is good enough to win games if Jones gives up a bad goal or two, but they need to also help him out by not taking penalties and limiting high danger chances, which they havent been doing. That is not a debatable point IMO. Fault on goals against is not black/white.

I wrote in a previous thread that i thought Karlsson's return would create problems for the team, and I still believe that. Our forwards need to re-learn how to play with him and be defensively responsible when he is aggressive offensively. They need to treat it like Lacrosse almost, where someone needs to stay back when a defender plays up. Though, having said that, Jones needs to bail out the team every now and then, and he hasnt been consistently.

I dont see another option than to ride out Jones and make a defensive tweak (outlined above). Trading for a goalie is a terrible idea with a dangerous risk:reward ratio. I hope DW isn't considering trading for a goalie this season. I understand the urgency to shore up that part of the team in an all-in season, but i don't think its the right move.

There are some additional things to consider that may be attributing to the low save% that aren't necessarily Jones issues.

• Scoring is up - to me, this is a result of two things. 1) goalie equipment shrinking, and 2) players getting better at shooting (stick tech plays a role also here). As recent as last season, it was clear goalies were improving at a faster rate than shooters. This is a well documented fact. When you sum up the facts that Jones is noticeably (at least to my eyes, particularly in the shoulder area) "smaller" with the new equipment + sharks are giving up lots of high danger chances (Sharks have surrendered the most in the NHL with 82 HDGA at 5v5 ) + shooters improving, the outcome is what we see in night in and night out.
• Risky defensive system/players - Karlsson is the key culprit here and i pointed out what needs to be done to mitigate his risks above. I think that will come with time. But it's not only Karlsson. We all know, and the whole league knows that we are a team that like the create offense from the back end, but when we play a team like boston, that likes to stretch our team out and have a forward high out of the zone on a breakout, we will get beat in transition. This leads to chances against. As noted above, Jones needs to bail the team out every now and then and certainly more than he does now, but that kind of risky hockey is avoidable.
• Shots against - Sharks are giving up 28.6 shots against/game, which isn't a lot, good for 3rd fewest in the league. Yet, they are 13th worst in HDCA. Seems like they are giving up a high % of HD shots against relative to their total shots against. tough on a goalie to consistently face a high % of HD shots, especially if he has not seen any action for stretches of time.

Those points considered, i think it's pretty explainable why collectively our 2 goalies, who as recently as last year were lauded for being a solid starter and one of the best backups, are suffering this year. I dont think it's coincidence they both are having off years.

As noted above, offensively our team is good enough to overcome some goaltending issues, but come playoff time, we need to focus more on sound defensive play to limit HD chances against and help Jones out. Barring some goaltending miracle, we will be hard pressed to have struggle scoring the rest of the year and in the playoffs. We can shift a small amount offensive focus - something as simple as pinching less or holding our blueline instead of the opponent's - into less risky defensive play and give jones the best chance to succeed.

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

This about sums it up.

Build a wall??

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

I don't know that they have much choice at the moment other than hoping Jones shows up come playoff time. They are pretty much saddled with his contract. Good luck getting any team to take that on.

They could go after a 1B type here in the next week or so but I don't see that happening because of the acquisition cost.

Maybe package Jones and Vlasic with 20% salary retention to Montreal for Price....

 

[Coily]

Call up Korenar and see what he can do. Maybe he can be our Matt Murray

Fun fact, he has the same SV% as Troy Grosenick.

 

[Bleedred]

I'd love to trade for Campbell or Miller, just to see if they can give some reliable starts down the stretch run. It's a gamble, as any goalie can look bad in a limited number of games. And at the same time, a mediocre goalie like Reimer can also look amazing over a stretch, like he did a few years ago.

This much is clear. DeBoer doesn't look like he wants to play Dell. I think Dell can get better than his current save percentage with some more games played. He has a very poor save percentage in a very limited number of games played. Jones has been bad in A LOT of games played. A good stretch moves Dell's numbers up by quite a bit, whereas I don't even think .920% goaltending the rest of the year can get Jones above .905% if he were to play 20 games. I'd have to do the math on that one.

DeBoer (who is very bad at managing goalies and has shown it over and over again at all of his NHL stops) doesn't really seem like he wants to play Dell. He even threw Jones back in there against Washington that night, one night after Florida blew him up and after a red eye flight into Washington with a game the next day.

 

[Bleedred]

If Jones played 17 more games and was a .930% goalie the rest of the way while averaging 28 shots faced per game, he'd end up with a .905% on the year when combining those numbers to what he's done so far. If he were to play 20 more games and was a .920% goalie the rest of the way while averaging 28 shots faced per game, he'd end the season as a .903% goalie when combining those numbers with what he's done so far to this point in the season.

And god help us if he plays 20 more games, as there's only 22 left this year. I don't think he'll play 20 of the last 22, but 17 of the last 22 seems like a sage bet if they don't acquire somebody else, assuming he's healthy.

 

[Paka Ono]

All of the teams have noticed his weakness is high glove side, and his stats show it.

 

[Boy Hedican]

Weird. He didn’t look great against Boston and some of his 2 goals per games lately have been fluffy, but he’s gotten significantly better since the ASG. Not sure why peeps are getting ruffled over a really weird game.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Weird. He didn’t look great against Boston and some of his 2 goals per games lately have been fluffy, but he’s gotten significantly better since the ASG. Not sure why peeps are getting ruffled over a really weird game.

This is the same crap that went on in the first half where we we're trying to predict PDB firing date. I admit I got caught up on that idiocy as I should have known he would adjust just like he has each year when there's been a problem. I have faith that the GM and catch aren't going to let bad goaltending tank a season with a team this good. We all noticed how good they would be with average goaltending? Of course the team knows these stats indies out. Lets see what happens next week. I have a certain degree of confidence that Jones will be fine when the playoffs hit. He's been noticeably better since the start of the new year IMO.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Weird. He didn’t look great against Boston and some of his 2 goals per games lately have been fluffy, but he’s gotten significantly better since the ASG. Not sure why peeps are getting ruffled over a really weird game.

Well said.

I have issues with Jones in that I don't think he's ever going to be more than an average goaltender, and you don't commit to those players long-term. On top of that, the equipment rule changes are showing us who around the league can recognize and put in the work necessary to adapt. So far, it isn't looking good for Jones.

Of course, what is particularly frustrating about Jones is that he has all the tools to be a franchise quality goaltender. He's big, tremendously athletic, and very composed in net.

 

[tiburon12]

Well said.

I have issues with Jones in that I don't think he's ever going to be more than an average goaltender, and you don't commit to those players long-term. On top of that, the equipment rule changes are showing us who around the league can recognize and put in the work necessary to adapt. So far, it isn't looking good for Jones.

Of course, what is particularly frustrating about Jones is that he has all the tools to be a franchise quality goaltender. He's big, tremendously athletic, and very composed in net.

Im biting hard now on the equipment changes having the biggest affect on his game. But you are right, its been more than a few months to get acclimated to the new gear, he should have figured it out for now.

Still, team defense is an unresolved issue and I'm ready (and did above) point fingers at Karlsson. While he shouldn't shoulder all the blame for creating scoring chances against, the team still needs to fill in for him during plays where he is roving around or holding the line etc.