Player Discussion: Martin Jones

[Fistfullofbeer]

I know we give up a lot of high danger shots so wanted to look at the list of the 10 goalies who have faced the most high danger shots.

Among goalies that have faced the top-10 HDSA this season, Jones has the 6th most. But his HDSV% is brutal at .793. The next worst HDSV% in that top-10 list is Hellebuyk at .805. Even worse, if you look at the goalies above him in the HDSA list, the worst HDSV% is .824.

And then you look at the goalies in the list and compare their overall SV% and it looks even worse. Jones is dead last in the list at .896 with the next closest goalie at .917.

People keep saying that our defense gives up too many high danger chances and while I agree, Jones has been brutal this year in those situations.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I don't even know what GSAA means, but when Jones is at -29.64, and the closest on that list is at -3.78, yeah...

 

[Barrie22]

I know we give up a lot of high danger shots so wanted to look at the list of the 10 goalies who have faced the most high danger shots.

Among goalies that have faced the top-10 HDSA this season, Jones has the 6th most. But his HDSV% is brutal at .793. The next worst HDSV% in that top-10 list is Hellebuyk at .805. Even worse, if you look at the goalies above him in the HDSA list, the worst HDSV% is .824.

And then you look at the goalies in the list and compare their overall SV% and it looks even worse. Jones is dead last in the list at .896 with the next closest goalie at .917.

People keep saying that our defense gives up too many high danger chances and while I agree, Jones has been brutal this year in those situations.

View attachment 206257

Until the high danger stat shows exactly what they count as a high danger shot then i will take them with a grain of salt.

1 shot is not the same as another shot.

 

[mooncalf]

I have never seen a team give up as many breakaways as the Sharks do. DeBoer's system sucks if that is what it leads to. Jones is beyond awful this year, but IMO the problem with the system is even worse.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

It feels like we have a championship defense with a star running back great wide receivers and Jones is that quarterback who throws a bunch of interceptions and takes too many sacks

 

[ISharkted]

Can we have Nabby or Irbe grab a sweater and gear for the playoffs?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Okay so I just took a good hard look at the stats, like a really hard look, and the truth is that Martin Jones and our defensive system both suck and they have been in decline in every season since we got here.

Here are some numbers, all 5-on-5, among roughly 30-34 goaltenders that met a certain minimum time requirement.

Season

GSAA (Using Pure SV%)

Rank

SV%

Rank

HDSA/SA

Rank

xSV%

Rank

dSV%

Rank

GSAA (Using SV% and xSV%)

Rank

2015-2016

0.14

20th

0.925

20th

26.61%

20th

92.39%

17th

0.11%

18th

1.52

18th

2016-2017

-8.78

32nd

0.917

27th

29.04%

31st

91.79%

28th

-0.17%

19th

-2.17

19th

2017-2018 (first 21)

-0.36

19th

0.921

19th

27.72%

26th

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2017-2018 (last 61)

-9.96

29th

0.913

28th

27.90%

26th

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2017-2018 (Total)

-10.29

28th

0.915

28th

27.86%

27th

91.90%

23rd

-0.39%

26th

-5.25

27th

2018-2019

-29.64

33rd

0.896

33rd

29.57%

28th

91.39%

30th

-1.80%

31st

-22.45

32nd

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I specifically went out of my way to calculate the numbers before and after our "system change" after that loss to Vegas on 11/24/2017. The difference in the quality of shots got marginally worse but it was still a pretty negligible difference and the HDSA/SA was still lower than it was in 2016-2017. This makes me think that our team defense was never all that great, even to start 2017-2018, but that Jones just played better and our PK kept us afloat.

Now, here is by far the most concerning part. The following numbers are from 2016-2017 through today.

Season

GSAA (Using Pure SV%)

Rank

SV%

Rank

HDSA/SA

Rank

xSV%

Rank

dSV%

Rank

GSAA (Using SV% and xSV%)

Rank

2016-2019

-48.3

32nd

0.91

32nd

28.81%

32nd

91.70%

31st

-0.76%

31st

-29.87

31st

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Jones ranks dead last in plain GSAA and 5V5 SV%. The goaltender with the 2nd worst plain GSAA is Craig Anderson at 25.95. In other words, Jones' league worst GSAA is nearly twice as high as 2nd worst. The goaltender with the 2nd worst SV% is Cam Ward at .914 SV% - 0.004 higher than Jones.

Now, one thing that we must consider is that Jones' numbers don't look quite as bad as when we adjust for quality of shots. It's worth noting that Jones faces the highest percentage of high danger shots of any goaltender in the NHL. His expected save percentage is 2nd worst in the NHL, behind only Cam Talbot of the Oilers. Thus, when we look at his adjusted GSAA, which takes shot quality into account, it drops his GSAA from 32nd in the league to...31st. From -48.3 to -29.87. Still absolutely terrible.

What does this tell us? THE TEAM DEFENSE AND THE GOALTENDING ARE BOTH THE PROBLEM! And they have both been a massive problem for 3 seasons now!

 

[Barrie22]

Can we have Nabby or Irbe grab a sweater and gear for the playoffs?

So instead of all the higher danger shots going in it would be the marleau classic chest shot dump in going in.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

(This applies to my post above, for those who care)

I don't even know what GSAA means, but when Jones is at -29.64, and the closest on that list is at -3.78, yeah...

GSAA is goals saved above average. It's how many more goals that a goaltender would have saved with league average save percentage.

The version from Natural Stat Trick doesn't take shot quality into account. It just considers league average goaltending as league average save percentage. The GSAA from websites like Corsica.hockey also takes expected save percentage into account, which is calculated using variables such as shot location, shooter handedness, shot type, rebound, etc.

 

[undercovernerd]

I can’t believe people are actually wasting their time with analytics. Dude, Stevie wonder could see that jones blows. Who cares about the high danger shots, blah blah blah. Jones sucks ass. Period. End of discussion /thread.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I can’t believe people are actually wasting their time with analytics. Dude, Stevie wonder could see that jones blows. Who cares about the high danger shots, blah blah blah. Jones sucks ass. Period. End of discussion /thread.

Except the defense is also terrible and by your token, Stevie Wonder could see that as well except there are still people who deny it. The analytics show that they’re a match made in hell for one another and they both have been terrible for 3 seasons.

 

[undercovernerd]

Except the defense is also terrible and by your token, Stevie Wonder could see that as well except there are still people who deny it. The analytics show that they’re a match made in hell for one another and they both have been terrible for 3 seasons.

Come on man, let me be bitter in peace.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Can we just sign someone from the KHL before the playoffs

 

[rangerssharks414]

GSAA is goals saved above average.

Derp. I should have been able to figure that out...

 

[LA Shark]

I dont see how any reasonable person could watch no more than a few Sharks games, and not come to the conclusion that team defense and terrible goaltending are both glaring problems for the team.

 

[Barrie22]

I dont see how any reasonable person could watch no more than a few Sharks games, and not come to the conclusion that team defense and terrible goaltending are both glaring problems for the team.

It is easier to blame the goalie. That is all it is.

 

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

I dont see how any reasonable person could watch no more than a few Sharks games, and not come to the conclusion that team defense and terrible goaltending are both glaring problems for the team.

The team defense can obviously be improved but goaltending is undoubtedly a more severe problem. If the Sharks even get league average goaltending, no changes to defense made, they improve significantly and are clear Cup favorites, behind only Tampa.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The team defense can obviously be improved but goaltending is undoubtedly a more severe problem. If the Sharks even get league average goaltending, no changes to defense made, they improve significantly and are clear Cup favorites, behind only Tampa.

The team defense can obviously be improved, and yet it hasn’t been; it has only gotten worse over the course of the past 3 seasons. The only other goaltender in the NHL over that time frame who faces the kind of shot quality that Martin Jones does is Cam Talbot of the Edmonton Oilers.

Did you watch the last 7 games? League average goaltending is not pulling this team out of the rut they’re in. League average goaltending probably wins them a few more games here and there but it’s not the biggest issue. Jones has also shown the ability to string together league average performances when the defense has tightened up.

 

[hohosaregood]

The team defense can obviously be improved but goaltending is undoubtedly a more severe problem. If the Sharks even get league average goaltending, no changes to defense made, they improve significantly and are clear Cup favorites, behind only Tampa.

We'd probably have a solid hold on 1st in the west if we even got .900 goaltending.

 

[DG93]

The team defense can obviously be improved, and yet it hasn’t been; it has only gotten worse over the course of the past 3 seasons. The only other goaltender in the NHL over that time frame who faces the kind of shot quality that Martin Jones does is Cam Talbot of the Edmonton Oilers.

Did you watch the last 7 games? League average goaltending is not pulling this team out of the rut they’re in. League average goaltending probably wins them a few more games here and there but it’s not the biggest issue. Jones has also shown the ability to string together league average performances when the defense has tightened up.

So what aspects of team defense can be improved? Positioning, deployment, etc.?

 

[treefiddy]

We'd probably have a solid hold on 1st in the west if we even got .900 goaltending.

It would take a .940 goalie to hit .900 behind this defense...

 

[Dicdonya]

It feels like we have a championship defense with a star running back great wide receivers and Jones is that quarterback who throws a bunch of interceptions and takes too many sacks

We may have all those things, but what you left out is that we also have a shit offensive line that is causing that quarterback to have to scramble all over, and out of the pocket and makes throws under duress very often. That might not be a problem for a different QB who is more mobile, but our QB struggles when forced out of the pocket. The worst part is, our coach seems unable to recognize our QB's clear weakness when scrambling, and has done nothing to adjust the schemes to get him more protection so he can stay in the pocket and play his game.

Okay so I just took a good hard look at the stats, like a really hard look, and the truth is that Martin Jones and our defensive system both suck and they have been in decline in every season since we got here.

Here are some numbers, all 5-on-5, among roughly 30-34 goaltenders that met a certain minimum time requirement.

Season

GSAA (Using Pure SV%)

Rank

SV%

Rank

HDSA/SA

Rank

xSV%

Rank

dSV%

Rank

GSAA (Using SV% and xSV%)

Rank

2015-2016

0.14

20th

0.925

20th

26.61%

20th

92.39%

17th

0.11%

18th

1.52

18th

2016-2017

-8.78

32nd

0.917

27th

29.04%

31st

91.79%

28th

-0.17%

19th

-2.17

19th

2017-2018 (first 21)

-0.36

19th

0.921

19th

27.72%

26th

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2017-2018 (last 61)

-9.96

29th

0.913

28th

27.90%

26th

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

2017-2018 (Total)

-10.29

28th

0.915

28th

27.86%

27th

91.90%

23rd

-0.39%

26th

-5.25

27th

2018-2019

-29.64

33rd

0.896

33rd

29.57%

28th

91.39%

30th

-1.80%

31st

-22.45

32nd

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I specifically went out of my way to calculate the numbers before and after our "system change" after that loss to Vegas on 11/24/2017. The difference in the quality of shots got marginally worse but it was still a pretty negligible difference and the HDSA/SA was still lower than it was in 2016-2017. This makes me think that our team defense was never all that great, even to start 2017-2018, but that Jones just played better and our PK kept us afloat.

Now, here is by far the most concerning part. The following numbers are from 2016-2017 through today.

Season

GSAA (Using Pure SV%)

Rank

SV%

Rank

HDSA/SA

Rank

xSV%

Rank

dSV%

Rank

GSAA (Using SV% and xSV%)

Rank

2016-2019

-48.3

32nd

0.91

32nd

28.81%

32nd

91.70%

31st

-0.76%

31st

-29.87

31st

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Jones ranks dead last in plain GSAA and 5V5 SV%. The goaltender with the 2nd worst plain GSAA is Craig Anderson at 25.95. In other words, Jones' league worst GSAA is nearly twice as high as 2nd worst. The goaltender with the 2nd worst SV% is Cam Ward at .914 SV% - 0.004 higher than Jones.

Now, one thing that we must consider is that Jones' numbers don't look quite as bad as when we adjust for quality of shots. It's worth noting that Jones faces the highest percentage of high danger shots of any goaltender in the NHL. His expected save percentage is 2nd worst in the NHL, behind only Cam Talbot of the Oilers. Thus, when we look at his adjusted GSAA, which takes shot quality into account, it drops his GSAA from 32nd in the league to...31st. From -48.3 to -29.87. Still absolutely terrible.

What does this tell us? THE TEAM DEFENSE AND THE GOALTENDING ARE BOTH THE PROBLEM! And they have both been a massive problem for 3 seasons now!

This has been my defense all season of Jones. Yes he is sucking this year, anyone who wants to claim otherwise is dumb, however its equally stupid to pretend that our defense is not helping him suck ass. Deboer is the problem, he was at the beginning of the year before our stacked roster just started outscoring our problems, and he still is now but our offense has dried up so its visible. Luckily DW and anyone else that matters decided to take the Kurz approach and just pretend Deboer has been a super wonderful coach, and anything short of complete and utter disaster will allow him to continue being our coach.

This is also why I do not jump down Vlasic or Braun's throat like so many here have, I really think Deboer has a system in place that is antithetical to defensive players. Just ask yourself, what player on the team has actually gotten better defensively under Deboer? I cannot think of one, yet I can think of several who have gotten worse, and when all of our goalies, and our two best defensive defenders, plus a few others, start declining like clockwork every year since Deboer has been here, culminating in one of, if not the worst defensive teams we have had in the last decade or more, despite having one of, if not the most, stacked defensive cores/team we have ever had, I just cannot see that as anything but a failure in coaching.

Maybe its all just coincidence, and Jones, Dell, Vlasic, Braun, Cooch etc all just started getting worse right after Deboer got here, and he is the victim of an aging and declining team falling off all at the same time, but geez that is a hard thing for me to believe, especially when many of the same players are simultaneously doing better or equal offensively at the same time.

 

[hohosaregood]

So what aspects of team defense can be improved? Positioning, deployment, etc.?

Uhh so when I went to the game recently, it seemed like there was some man coverage going on in the defensive zone. There were at least a few time one of our guys ended up skating around the whole zone to follow the puck carrier. idk if that's a typical choice in most defensive systems but maybe more of a zone coverage could take care of the scrambling issue we have.

 

[DG93]

Uhh so when I went to the game recently, it seemed like there was some man coverage going on in the defensive zone. There were at least a few time one of our guys ended up skating around the whole zone to follow the puck carrier. idk if that's a typical choice in most defensive systems but maybe more of a zone coverage could take care of the scrambling issue we have.

Interesting, yeah I've noticed that too. Maybe they're worried that zone coverage would lead to specific players losing those matchups? In that case that's on PDB for deploying players incorrectly.

 

[hohosaregood]

We may have all those things, but what you left out is that we also have a **** offensive line that is causing that quarterback to have to scramble all over, and out of the pocket and makes throws under duress very often. That might not be a problem for a different QB who is more mobile, but our QB struggles when forced out of the pocket. The worst part is, our coach seems unable to recognize our QB's clear weakness when scrambling, and has done nothing to adjust the schemes to get him more protection so he can stay in the pocket and play his game.



This has been my defense all season of Jones. Yes he is sucking this year, anyone who wants to claim otherwise is dumb, however its equally stupid to pretend that our defense is not helping him suck ass. Deboer is the problem, he was at the beginning of the year before our stacked roster just started outscoring our problems, and he still is now but our offense has dried up so its visible. Luckily DW and anyone else that matters decided to take the Kurz approach and just pretend Deboer has been a super wonderful coach, and anything short of complete and utter disaster will allow him to continue being our coach.

This is also why I do not jump down Vlasic or Braun's throat like so many here have, I really think Deboer has a system in place that is antithetical to defensive players. Just ask yourself, what player on the team has actually gotten better defensively under Deboer? I cannot think of one, yet I can think of several who have gotten worse, and when all of our goalies, and our two best defensive defenders, plus a few others, start declining like clockwork every year since Deboer has been here, culminating in one of, if not the worst defensive teams we have had in the last decade or more, despite having one of, if not the most, stacked defensive cores/team we have ever had, I just cannot see that as anything but a failure in coaching.

Maybe its all just coincidence, and Jones, Dell, Vlasic, Braun, Cooch etc all just started getting worse right after Deboer got here, and he is the victim of an aging and declining team falling off all at the same time, but geez that is a hard thing for me to believe, especially when many of the same players are simultaneously doing better or equal offensively at the same time.

Burns and Dillon got better defensively imo.