Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Does anyone actually trust JR?

[WheresRamziAbid]

Because what they're doing right now is obviously not working, and if you insist on keeping literally every moderately good player on this team, you're going to be making no changes from the team that hasn't gotten it done for 3 years in a row.

then why not actually focus on the problems than randomly hack the roster apart. Especially when the sample we are looking at is 8 random games.

fix the bottom pairing.

move murray.

Decide what you want to do at 3c

go about you life

 

[Empoleon8771]

So trading the guy at $3.5M a season is the issue?

I thought Rust was fine against the Canadiens. His center had 1 point. Nobody and I mean nobody looked good last year against the Islanders. He didn't have a great playoffs in 2018, but the team as a whole seemed gassed after two straight Stanley Cup runs. Read the entire post, I never said you can't move him, I'd just move someone else before him.

I know you're going to say Rust is the most movable player and Hornqvist has an NTC and will fetch a worse return. I just think if you're in win-now mode, whatever you get for Rust isn't going to be exactly as impactful as Rust himself. I get his trade value is high and I expect anyone not named Crosby to be moved, but I just think you'd be making a big mistake trading him to "freshen things up". Rust is the least of their issues right now. I understand he's easier to move, I understand he could fetch a decent return, I just think whatever that return is (barring a major overpay) would be underwhelming and make us a worse team.

I'll just repeat what I said. If you insist on keeping literally every moderately good player on this team, you're going to be making no changes from the team that hasn't gotten it done for 3 years in a row.

Rust has a great contract and is a good player. Hornqvist tries hard. Dumoulin is their top pair LD and a vocal locker room leader. They won't win any trade involving Letang. Guentzel is the best fit on Crosby's wing perhaps ever. All of these can be true, but if you're insisting on keeping all of these guys for those reasons, you're not going to have any different of a team next year as what you had this year or in the last 3 years.

then why not actually focus on the problems than randomly hack the roster apart. Especially when the sample we are looking at is 8 random games.

fix the bottom pairing.

move murray.

Decide what you want to do at 3c

go about you life

It's almost like the core itself has been a problem in each of the last 3 runs. Just because Penguins fans want to scapegoat Murray and Johnson for all of the problems in the world doesn't mean they're right.

 

[Peat]

I can't imagine being sure Rust will just be a 30-40 point player next season and not thinking selling him to the GM who thinks they can get 60 points out of him (and is willing to pay suitable price for said) being a good idea.

 

[vikingGoalie]

Because what they're doing right now is obviously not working, and if you insist on keeping literally every moderately good player on this team, you're going to be making no changes from the team that hasn't gotten it done for 3 years in a row.

Rust was 2nd on the team for points, and 1st for goals last season, granted a season where Sid was out for a bit. That and his cap hit is 3.5M I'm not trading that unless it's a really good return. We all know the two trades that need to happen. Murray for ? and JJ launched into the sun. A real x-factor is Bjugs because of the surgery and recovery there from I don't think we even can trade him yet but he's over 4M cap hit will he ever be the player he can be? Will anyone even want a guy that tall with a wonky back and coming off core surgery?

 

[Turin]

I don’t think anybody is arguing for shipping Rust out just because. We’re saying that it has to be on the table for the right return.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Let's look at the stats of the core dating back to the Washington series in 2018:

Crosby: 12 points in 14 games (8 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Malkin: 7 points in 12 games (3 points in 4 games against the Capitals, 3 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 1 point in 4 games against the Habs)
Rust: 3 points in 14 game (0 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 0 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Hornqvist: 7 points in 14 games (5 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 0 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 2 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Letang: 5 points in 14 games (4 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 0 points in 4 games against the Habs), more troubling stat is a -10
Guentzel: 12 points in 14 games (8 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Dumoulin: points don't matter, but he's a -7 in 14 games

Tell me exactly how this team is fine with just replacing Murray, their 3C and bottom pair. Guentzel and Crosby are the only core players who have played up to the caliber they should be at in their last 3 elimination series, and I think those two are both heavily carried by a great series against the Capitals. Rust is especially bad, so people clinging to regular season numbers as why they should keep Rust are basically making the "James Neal shouldn't be traded because he's a PPG winger" argument.

 

[Merc29]

I love Rust as much as the next Pens fan, but GMJR has the worst problem holding onto players 2 seasons too long. Maatta and Kessel are the big ones that come to mind. Rust is a hard worker who produces well, but he is what he is and will most likely only decline. It’s time to maximize his value while we can.

 

[Pens1566]

I'd definitely move Rust now if the offer was right. Sell high, odds are he's not going to repeat this season.

 

[Will Hunting]

Let's look at the stats of the core dating back to the Washington series in 2018:

Crosby: 12 points in 14 games (8 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Malkin: 7 points in 12 games (3 points in 4 games against the Capitals, 3 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 1 point in 4 games against the Habs)
Rust: 3 points in 14 game (0 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 0 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Hornqvist: 7 points in 14 games (5 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 0 points in 4 games against the Islanders and 2 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Letang: 5 points in 14 games (4 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 0 points in 4 games against the Habs), more troubling stat is a -10
Guentzel: 12 points in 14 games (8 points in 6 games against the Capitals, 1 point in 4 games against the Islanders and 3 points in 4 games against the Habs)
Dumoulin: points don't matter, but he's a -7 in 14 games

Tell me exactly how this team is fine with just replacing Murray, their 3C and bottom pair. Guentzel and Crosby are the only core players who have played up to the caliber they should be at in their last 3 elimination series, and I think those two are both heavily carried by a great series against the Capitals. Rust is especially bad, so people clinging to regular season numbers as why they should keep Rust are basically making the "James Neal shouldn't be traded because he's a PPG winger" argument.

Rust is only "especially bad" if you look at it this way. But he didn't play in the TOP6 vs the Caps and Isles, neither was he considered a core player before this year. In the TOP6 he just had 3 points in 4 games vs the Habs and nobody had more. Sid and Guentzel are the only reliable players in the playoffs for us and even they had a terrible Isles series. Malkin, Dumo and Letang are very disappointing to me in this picture but what can you do, other than trust them again? Letang had a historically bad Caps series, he was not a problem vs MTL but I agree that he is a question mark in the playoffs in general.

 

[Peat]

Slightly devil's advocate but -

Do we really need to change the expanded core a lot?

Washington were gaining a big reputation as playoff choke artists prior to winning. Ovechkin had a .74 ppg in the three post-seasons preceding. Kuznetsov was a .49 ppg guy.

Tampa have stuck with their core despite getting bounced in 4 last year, and not even making it three years ago.

Yes, both orgs have had substantial internal player development happen to take them there. But they also overcame (or are backing their players) to overcome mental issues - and that is the big thing here.

Are guys like Rust and Dumoulin incapable of being part of a Penguins team that regains its fire in the playoffs? And are guys like Darnell Nurse or Ondrej Palat really the missing mental pieces?
And how much effect does changing Rust for Palat or Tuch really have when the same four guys wear the letters and are the Head Coach?

I get people want to try a shake up because they don't view the core as being able to self-fix. But there's a view only shake-ups work that I'm not sure reflects the record. Are shake-ups that much more successful than self-fixes (particularly when we haven't tried the obvious part of a self-fix)? Our two most recent shake-ups were Hagelin (big backfire) and Kessel (seemingly effective but that has worn off).

 

[pistolpete11]

I could be wrong, but I don't think GM's are going to be convinced that Rust is all of a sudden a point-per-game player or even a 60 point player. I think they will consider him a L2/L3 tweener who scores 30-40 points when he's not next to Malkin. So it might be 'selling high', but I don't think it's really going to be all that high. I think it would be a swap for a 40-ish point winger or a 4/5D. I don't think it is worth it when he could actually be a point-per-game winger who meshes with Malkin and Crosby, is relatively cheap, plays the style they want to play, can play in all situations, and all the other reasons everyone likes Rust.

If I'm wrong, I'd be open to listening to offers for a legitimate L1/L2 winger who brings something different or a legitimate top 4 defenseman. I just don't think they'd actually be getting those type of offers.

 

[JRS91]

I'll just repeat what I said. If you insist on keeping literally every moderately good player on this team, you're going to be making no changes from the team that hasn't gotten it done for 3 years in a row.

Rust has a great contract and is a good player. Hornqvist tries hard. Dumoulin is their top pair LD and a vocal locker room leader. They won't win any trade involving Letang. Guentzel is the best fit on Crosby's wing perhaps ever. All of these can be true, but if you're insisting on keeping all of these guys for those reasons, you're not going to have any different of a team next year as what you had this year or in the last 3 years.

I think you're missing the point.

They can't make significant changes with the bad contracts they have because whatever they get in return is going to be significantly less than the impact that player they're moving is going to bring. This isn't like the Neal trade where you have a top 10 winger in the NHL and move him for a guy like Hornqvist. Unpopular at the time, but paid off.

You're trading an industrious winger who had a good year after a slew of decent years. If you move him for another winger, you're going to get a worse player. If you move him for a defenseman, he's going to suffer with Jack Johnson. There's always trading Rust for a third line center, but who fit that criteria? If you move Rust for Jarnkrok (which I think is a fair deal), now you have a situation where you're getting an unknown player. Does he fit with the team? Who does he play with? Who's going to be our top-six winger?

Do I think a Zucker, Malkin and Hornqvist line could be good enough? Perhaps. I just think you have a sure thing with Rust, you know he can play with Crosby and Malkin which is such an underrated intangible. As far as Hornqvist himself goes, whatever return you get is going to be a lot less than whatever impact Hornqvist is going to make. Sure you get his salary off the books, maybe you take a stab at Granlund in free agency, a guy who was pretty quite in this year's playoffs so yeah he'd be a good fit. Can he play with Crosby or Malkin? As far as Dumoulin and Letang go, Dumoulin isn't an issue, but I have no issue with moving him for the right person. Same goes for Letang.

I'm not saying you couldn't move any of these guys, I just think when it's all said and done, what exact issues do you see with this current team? Do you think our top four defenseman were bad? I thought they were good. I thought it was the Johnson and Schultz pairing that was abysmal. So why move anyone in the top four? I mean, sure you could move Dumoulin for a wing to help with scoring, now you have Jack Johnson moving up in the depth chart. It seems you're conflating an issue that's easier to solve than you think. If you think they moved Neal because he had one bad playoff series or because Rutherford just wanted to shake things up, I think you're wrong. They moved Neal because the guy was an absolute albatross when it came to bad penalties and was apparently a problem in the lockeroom.

 

[Deport Ogie]

Washington were gaining a big reputation as playoff choke artists prior to winning. Ovechkin had a .74 ppg in the three post-seasons preceding. Kuznetsov was a .49 ppg guy.

Tampa have stuck with their core despite getting bounced in 4 last year, and not even making it three years ago.

How much of that is some abstract idea of motive and drive? Ovi knew that without a cup, his entire legacy would always be in question. Tampa has won cups but not this core.

The Pens core has 3. The question of being able to finish is gone. And while, yes, obviously 5>4>3 etc etc and they can pay all the lip service they want to that fact, there has to be some difference when you dig right down to it.

Of course, this all depends on how much you buy in to this memetic idea of motivation directly driving success.

 

[Peat]

How much of that is some abstract idea of motive and drive? Ovi knew that without a cup, his entire legacy would always be in question. Tampa has won cups but not this core.

The Pens core has 3. The question of being able to finish is gone. And while, yes, obviously 5>4>3 etc etc and they can pay all the lip service they want to that fact, there has to be some difference when you dig right down to it.

Of course, this all depends on how much you buy in to this memetic idea of motivation directly driving success.

Probably some, but with some being an unknown variable.

And there's definitely some to motivation driving success, but again some is an unknown variable.

I don't particularly doubt the core's drive to get four in general though - but last two playoffs, their drive, and the team's drive, was lacking at crunch moments. I don't think it's all the problem, but it has to be part of the solution.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Rust is only "especially bad" if you look at it this way. But he didn't play in the TOP6 vs the Caps and Isles, neither was he considered a core player before this year. In the TOP6 he just had 3 points in 4 games vs the Habs and nobody had more. Sid and Guentzel are the only reliable players in the playoffs for us and even they had a terrible Isles series. Malkin, Dumo and Letang are very disappointing to me in this picture but what can you do, other than trust them again? Letang had a historically bad Caps series, he was not a problem vs MTL but I agree that he is a question mark in the playoffs in general.

No, I can also look at it with analytics, where he was also terrible against the Capitals and Islanders:

Capitals series: 43.37% xGF% and -13.13% xGF%RelTM overall while violently dragging down Malkin's numbers (47.61% xGF% for Malkin-Rust in 22 minutes, 67.6% xGF% for Malkin without Rust in 35 minutes)
Islanders series: 29.59% xGF% and -27.35% xGF%relTM while violently dragging down both Crosby's (34.07% xGF% for Crosby-Rust in 20 minutes, 62.38% xGF% for Crosby without Rust in 42.5 minutes) and Malkin's (20.2% xGF% in 13 minutes for Malkin-Rust, 63.37% xGF% for Malkin without Rust in 40 minutes) numbers

And when you mentioned that he had 3 points in 4 games against the Habs, 2 of those were powerplay points and 1 was an empty net point. Not really a glowing endorsement of his performance in the top-6.

 

[Peat]

No, I can also look at it with analytics, where he was also terrible against the Capitals and Islanders:

Capitals series: 43.37% xGF% and -13.13% xGF%RelTM overall while violently dragging down Malkin's numbers (47.61% xGF% for Malkin-Rust in 22 minutes, 67.6% xGF% for Malkin without Rust in 35 minutes)
Islanders series: 29.59% xGF% and -27.35% xGF%relTM while violently dragging down both Crosby's (34.07% xGF% for Crosby-Rust in 20 minutes, 62.38% xGF% for Crosby without Rust in 42.5 minutes) and Malkin's (20.2% xGF% in 13 minutes for Malkin-Rust, 63.37% xGF% for Malkin without Rust in 40 minutes) numbers

And when you mentioned that he had 3 points in 4 games against the Habs, 2 of those were powerplay points and 1 was an empty net point. Not really a glowing endorsement of his performance in the top-6.

And his top 6 advanced numbers this year...?

 

[Empoleon8771]

And his top 6 advanced numbers this year...?

His analytics in the top-6 against the Habs this year were good. But going 1/3, while 2 of the other 3 are horrible, isn't exactly a glowing endorsement. Not to mention his production issues in the last 3 playoffs.

If you look at his cumulative playoff performance in the last 3 series, Rust has a 43.6% xGF%, a -11.47% xGF%RelTM and 0 points at 5v5. That's not a typo, he literally doesn't have a 5v5 point in his last 3 series. If you include the Flyers series, he has 2 5v5 goals and 0 5v5 assists since the 2017 cup win.

 

[Peat]

His analytics in the top-6 against the Habs this year were good. But going 1/3, while 2 of the other 3 are horrible, isn't exactly a glowing endorsement. Not to mention his production issues in the last 3 playoffs.

If you look at his cumulative playoff performance in the last 3 series, Rust has a 43.6% xGF%, a -11.47% xGF%RelTM and 0 points at 5v5. That's not a typo, he literally doesn't have a 5v5 point in his last 3 series. If you include the Flyers series, he has 2 5v5 goals and 0 5v5 assists since the 2017 cup win.

Well no, it's not a glowing endorsement. But it's part of the overall picture - and so it the fact that those part seasons aren't equally important in trying to project what comes next, particularly when there's been a sharp upwards trajectory. Has Rust been bad in the playoffs since the Cups? Yes. Was he bad in these playoffs? A little disappointing maybe, but good advanced stats and 3 points in 4 games is difficult to file as bad for me, and the disappointment mainly comes from a line that maybe lacked a little polish and a C who had an elbow operation right after.

Is Rust going to be bad in his next playoffs? Well, that depends on which sample you think is likely to be more accurate - the three year one as a whole? Just this year because he's taken a step? Or, hell, the whole five year.

That's the real question. Not whether he was bad (although, yes, some people are arguing that, partly because some people want to bury this year in the three year) but what comes next.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Well no, it's not a glowing endorsement. But it's part of the overall picture - and so it the fact that those part seasons aren't equally important in trying to project what comes next, particularly when there's been a sharp upwards trajectory. Has Rust been bad in the playoffs since the Cups? Yes. Was he bad in these playoffs? A little disappointing maybe, but good advanced stats and 3 points in 4 games is difficult to file as bad for me, and the disappointment mainly comes from a line that maybe lacked a little polish and a C who had an elbow operation right after.

Is Rust going to be bad in his next playoffs? Well, that depends on which sample you think is likely to be more accurate - the three year one as a whole? Just this year because he's taken a step? Or, hell, the whole five year.

That's the real question. Not whether he was bad (although, yes, some people are arguing that, partly because some people want to bury this year in the three year) but what comes next.

I think this line of thought ignores the last 3 years and how maintaining the status quo isn't going to yield different results than what the last 3 years have been.

Sure, will any individual player like Rust, Hornqvist, Letang or such perform better in the playoffs in the future than they have in the last 3 years? It's totally possible, so I can see why expecting them to bounce back makes sense. But if you do that with everyone, suddenly you have the same exact failed core that has failed for 3 years in a row. Why should we expect any different results from the core if the core isn't changing?

 

[Peat]

I think this line of thought ignores the last 3 years and how maintaining the status quo isn't going to yield different results than what the last 3 years have been.

Sure, will any individual player like Rust, Hornqvist, Letang or such perform better in the playoffs in the future than they have in the last 3 years? It's totally possible, so I can see why expecting them to bounce back makes sense. But if you do that with everyone, suddenly you have the same exact failed core that has failed for 3 years in a row. Why should we expect any different results from the core if the core isn't changing?

Washington didn't change their core and won. Tampa are sticking with the core that's only got past the 1st round once in the last three years and everyone's scared of them.

How are we sure maintaining the status quo on a number of core players won't yield results?

And if we are sure, why do we think Rust for X or Dumo for X gets results that Hagelin/Kessel/Maatta out didn't, when the same 4 guys are wearing the letters and being the head coach?

Edit: I'll be honest, I really don't get the idea that wholesale change of the assistants and fringe guys isn't enough, but that trading a Rust or Dumoulin changes it. I don't see how that tips the balance.

 

[pistolpete11]

I get people want to try a shake up because they don't view the core as being able to self-fix. But there's a view only shake-ups work that I'm not sure reflects the record. Are shake-ups that much more successful than self-fixes (particularly when we haven't tried the obvious part of a self-fix)? Our two most recent shake-ups were Hagelin (big backfire) and Kessel (seemingly effective but that has worn off).

I feel dumb asking this since it's obvious , but what are you referring to here?

In my mind, you don't blow it up until you try a new head coach. There's a couple people around here who would say I'm just scapegoating the coach. Maybe I am, but I don't think it's a coincidence that nearly every player has struggled in the playoffs 2 years in a row all at the same time. We know these are good players. A few years older, sure, but they are good players and they are certainly good enough to beat the 24th ranked team in the sorta-playoffs. They are good enough to score more than 6 goals against the Islanders. They didn't all fall off a cliff at the same time. If they looked like they had a pulse and just lost, OK, maybe they aren't good enough anymore. But I think there is a larger, more systemic issue at play IMO.

That's not to say they can't trade anyone in the expanded core. I just don't think they should be actively shopping any of them. It's also not to say there aren't changes needed to the roster. Kapanen is a start, although I wish they would have added more and got a legit top line winger. There's a few other spots and hopefully they give young guys like Poulin and POJ shots to take those spots.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I feel dumb asking this since it's obvious , but what are you referring to here?

In my mind, you don't blow it up until you try a new head coach. There's a couple people around here who would say I'm just scapegoating the coach. Maybe I am, but I don't think it's a coincidence that nearly every player has struggled in the playoffs 2 years in a row all at the same time. We know these are good players. A few years older, sure, but they are good players and they are certainly good enough to beat the 24th ranked team in the sorta-playoffs. They are good enough to score more than 6 goals against the Islanders. They didn't all fall off a cliff at the same time. If they looked like they had a pulse and just lost, OK, maybe they aren't good enough anymore. But I think there is a larger, more systemic issue at play IMO.

That's not to say they can't trade anyone in the expanded core. I just don't think they should be actively shopping any of them. It's also not to say there aren't changes needed to the roster. Kapanen is a start, although I wish they would have added more and got a legit top line winger. There's a few other spots and hopefully they give young guys like Poulin and POJ shots to take those spots.

I am completely all about trading basically anyone right now if there is a deal that comes along that makes sense. But then again I've never thought terribly much of this supporting cast, really. Some great names... fit together about as well as 3 partial sets of different sized puzzle pieces all jumbled together.

Having said that you are absolutely on the money that it's all irrelevant anyway so long as Sullivan is still sorta just... doing his best Disco Dan impression out there. His decisions have become poor enough at this point that it is absolutely effecting the product and you can't have that kind of self-sabotage going on in a playoff series when teams play super tight.

I don't see it as scapegoating at all. You've just been paying attention. We saw this exact same thing not that many years ago.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Washington didn't change their core and won. Tampa are sticking with the core that's only got past the 1st round once in the last three years and everyone's scared of them.

How are we sure maintaining the status quo on a number of core players won't yield results?

And if we are sure, why do we think Rust for X or Dumo for X gets results that Hagelin/Kessel/Maatta out didn't, when the same 4 guys are wearing the letters and being the head coach?

Edit: I'll be honest, I really don't get the idea that wholesale change of the assistants and fringe guys isn't enough, but that trading a Rust or Dumoulin changes it. I don't see how that tips the balance.

Yes, Washington didn't change their core and they won once. Then they proceeded to get eliminated in the 1st round in each of the next 2 years in pretty embarrassing way, and they proceeded to fire their coach because of how bad the last series was.

The Lightning are not comparable. They had 1 embarrassing series against the Jackets, but that's about it. They made the ECF in 2015, 2016, 2018 and are leading their 2nd round series now to an insanely good Bruins team. They haven't won, but that's a hell of a lot different than "lose in 4 games to a 24 ranked seed".

 

[Empoleon8771]

I feel dumb asking this since it's obvious , but what are you referring to here?

In my mind, you don't blow it up until you try a new head coach. There's a couple people around here who would say I'm just scapegoating the coach. Maybe I am, but I don't think it's a coincidence that nearly every player has struggled in the playoffs 2 years in a row all at the same time. We know these are good players. A few years older, sure, but they are good players and they are certainly good enough to beat the 24th ranked team in the sorta-playoffs. They are good enough to score more than 6 goals against the Islanders. They didn't all fall off a cliff at the same time. If they looked like they had a pulse and just lost, OK, maybe they aren't good enough anymore. But I think there is a larger, more systemic issue at play IMO.

That's not to say they can't trade anyone in the expanded core. I just don't think they should be actively shopping any of them. It's also not to say there aren't changes needed to the roster. Kapanen is a start, although I wish they would have added more and got a legit top line winger. There's a few other spots and hopefully they give young guys like Poulin and POJ shots to take those spots.

Trading Rust or Hornqvist isn't "blowing it up". Sullivan is a dramatically better coach than Rust or Hornqvist are players, you don't fire a coach over trying to trade a solid supporting piece first.

I'd agree with you if we were talking Letang or Guentzel, but Rust and Hornqvist aren't Letang and Guentzel.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

How are we sure maintaining the status quo on a number of core players won't yield results?

We don't, which is why there seems to be two camps at the moment. Neither way is guaranteed to work.

It's a gamble against empiri to stay with current core and supporting cast and there's obviously a gamble to trade known players as Rust and Dumoulin and Hörnqvist.

Two different roads ahead and it's hard to say that any can claim 100% to be the sane one.