Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: The Trades We'd Make Before The Play Offs

[Empoleon8771]

What is Murray's realistic value?

Probably 2 mid-2nds or a late 1st and a late 2nd. His playoff resume will put his trade value about on par with Andersen.

Goalie trade values range from as high as a top-10 pick for young elite starters and to a 2nd for a low end, short term starter. Murray's probably in the Andersen (pick #30 and pick #60) and Lehner (pick #20) range.

 

[Peat]

I know of a team that could use him. Pittsburgh.

We got a 1D and his name is Marino. Besides, I'm entirely sure how much we do use him...

And Bjugstad.

EDIT: Nah, I think however tempting it may be, you can use a Murray give away to get rid of JJ and a 2nd rounder to get rid of Bjugstad. You take the franchise altering pick.

Honestly I just want an excuse to take 3OA +5 OA. You strike right on that, and that is just as franchise altering. I can't really justify it on it's own because it's risky, but give me just enough of an addition and I'd do it. But then, I don't get the feeling Lafreniere is generational, and I don't think he's going to be regarded as the best player in this draft in 5-7 years (although he's clearly going to be up there and he's the single most likely to be so). People use Hall as a comparable - well, I feel pretty sure the equivalent of Seguin + Tarasenko will be there at 3rd + 5th if a team can just identify which ones will pop and take off and give them the right development.

Oh I could totally see something dumb like that.

I honestly don't get Sully sticking with Zucker-Malkin-Rust. The three of them just don't work together. I'll take any duo from those three guys, but not all three. It happens sometimes, and as I said you've got a score of people here saying 'oh on our shaken up and improved team, that can be our 2nd line'. It's madness.

Maybe I'm mad, but I think the only thing wrong with that line is Malkin couldn't hit a barndoor with a banjo right now. The line's had enough gimme chances that they should be heroes, and I don't think that happens with lines that just don't work. The issue there is individual performance.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

Probably 2 mid-2nds or a late 1st and a late 2nd. His playoff resume will put his trade value about on par with Andersen.

In this scenario do we go Jarry or bring in some vet potential 1A 1B situation?

I'm NOT this person but do they look at a Flower type? I feel like I read somewhere that Vegas could move him. To be clear I'M NOT THAT PERSON who injects MAF into everything

 

[Empoleon8771]

In this scenario do we go Jarry or bring in some vet potential 1A 1B situation?

I'm NOT this person but do they look at a Flower type? I feel like I read somewhere that Vegas could move him. To be clear I'M NOT THAT PERSON who injects MAF into everything

I'm not going to get mad about this suggestion because I threw it out a week or 2 ago

But yeah, I think they get a 1B to platoon with Jarry. There's a point where you're taking too much risk for minimal gain with your goaltending, and Jarry-DeSmith certainly qualifies as that in my eyes (as in you don't need the cap space enough to go with such risks in net). I think they acquire someone like Jake Allen to platoon with Jarry for the short run. If Allen is too expensive, maybe target someone like Cam Talbot.

That's basically the same exact thing Calgary did last off-season, when they signed Talbot as a platoon goalie instead of just giving Rittich the undisputed keys to the starter. And it has paid off, because Talbot out-played Rittich and is actually starting for them in the playoffs right now.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Honestly I just want an excuse to take 3OA +5 OA. You strike right on that, and that is just as franchise altering. I can't really justify it on it's own because it's risky, but give me just enough of an addition and I'd do it. But then, I don't get the feeling Lafreniere is generational, and I don't think he's going to be regarded as the best player in this draft in 5-7 years (although he's clearly going to be up there and he's the single most likely to be so). People use Hall as a comparable - well, I feel pretty sure the equivalent of Seguin + Tarasenko will be there at 3rd + 5th if a team can just identify which ones will pop and take off and give them the right development..

To be honest, I'd sooner trade #1 for more proven NHL talent over trading it for 2 picks.

Instead of trading #1 for picks #3 and #5, why not try for Tkachuk and another piece instead? Or why not talk to Detroit and try to get Seider and Zadina? I guess it depends on how high they are on Lafreniere, but I think there's a discussion to be had there.

Ottawa trading say Tkachuk and Brannstrom for #1 and then having picks #1, #3 and #5 may set their future up for decades.

 

[Peat]

In this scenario do we go Jarry or bring in some vet potential 1A 1B situation?

I'm NOT this person but do they look at a Flower type? I feel like I read somewhere that Vegas could move him. To be clear I'M NOT THAT PERSON who injects MAF into everything

You plan for Jarry to take the net, but I dunno how big a back-up plan you have for maybe not being a 100% ready to be a 55 game starter.

I get why people like Empo want a Jake Allen or Talbot, but a dude like Allen has been worse than league average most years recently and barely grades out at league average over the last three combined, and will cost 4.5m. I'm not sure DeSmith is for serious legit one of the best back-ups in the league like he suggested, but it'd be a serious regression before he'd be a problem stood next to Allen.

To be honest, I'd sooner trade #1 for more proven NHL talent over trading it for 2 picks.

Instead of trading #1 for picks #3 and #5, why not try for Tkachuk and another piece instead? Or why not talk to Detroit and try to get Seider and Zadina? I guess it depends on how high they are on Lafreniere, but I think there's a discussion to be had there.

Ottawa trading say Tkachuk and Brannstrom for #1 and then having picks #1, #3 and #5 may set their future up for decades.

I'd listen, but I'm thinking Lafreniere has more impact for his cost over the next 7 years than either of those packages, and while they're probably safer than 3OA + 5OA, I don't think either has the potential impact of those picks that'd have me interested.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You plan for Jarry to take the net, but I dunno how big a back-up plan you have for maybe not being a 100% ready to be a 55 game starter.

I get why people like Empo want a Jake Allen or Talbot, but a dude like Allen has been worse than league average most years recently and barely grades out at league average over the last three combined, and will cost 4.5m. I'm not sure DeSmith is for serious legit one of the best back-ups in the league like he suggested, but it'd be a serious regression before he'd be a problem stood next to Allen.

He has a career .913 save%, which is pretty much spot on league average over the last 6 seasons. In fact, his GSAA in his career is -0.5, he's literally can't be any more average over his NHL career than he has been through nearly 300 games. He also has great playoff numbers and good quality start numbers.

Basically, you know what you're getting with Allen. He's a great 1B goalie over his career who can step in and take over a starter's role and give you completely average results without crazy variation (probably league average +/- 0.8%). Do we know that DeSmith can do that? I don't think tha'ts proven at all.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I mean, we had Kessel and the power play looked exactly like this for the last two years. Hell, last year it looked worse.

Simply not true. The Pens were 3rd in '16-'17, 1st in '17-'18 and 5th in '18-'19.

They were consistently elite on the PP. Now this year, they are mediocre at best.

 

[Gurglesons]

Simply not true. The Pens were 3rd in '16-'17, 1st in '17-'18 and 5th in '18-'19.

They were consistently elite on the PP. Now this year, they are mediocre at best.

You think last year's PP was "elite"? You still recovering from the camping trip?

 

[Peat]

He has a career .913 save%, which is pretty much spot on league average over the last 6 seasons. In fact, his GSAA in his career is -0.5, he's literally can't be any more average over his NHL career than he has been through nearly 300 games. He also has great playoff numbers and good quality start numbers.

Basically, you know what you're getting with Allen. He's a great 1B goalie over his career who can step in and take over a starter's role and give you completely average results without crazy variation (probably league average +/- 0.8%). Do we know that DeSmith can do that? I don't think that's proven at all.

That's the nub of it, aye. Allen's safer but you pay for it. Although there's still little details - is he going to struggle in a new locale, new system? If Allen has to take on a workload due to Jarry faltering, is he actually average - last three seasons, he's only been above average when firmly in a back up role? Or could he got back to 16-17ish form if needed?

And on the flip side, DeSmith isn't exactly proven but he's done about everything right in the NHL to date.

*shrugs* I guess I'm fine with either, but I'm inclined towards the gamble.

To be honest, I'd sooner trade #1 for more proven NHL talent over trading it for 2 picks.

Instead of trading #1 for picks #3 and #5, why not try for Tkachuk and another piece instead? Or why not talk to Detroit and try to get Seider and Zadina? I guess it depends on how high they are on Lafreniere, but I think there's a discussion to be had there.

Ottawa trading say Tkachuk and Brannstrom for #1 and then having picks #1, #3 and #5 may set their future up for decades.

Circling back on this one again

3OA and 5OA includes a very legitimate stab at a 1C. Neither of those mentioned packages would. That'd matter to me.

 

[SEALBound]

To be honest, I'd sooner trade #1 for more proven NHL talent over trading it for 2 picks.

Instead of trading #1 for picks #3 and #5, why not try for Tkachuk and another piece instead? Or why not talk to Detroit and try to get Seider and Zadina? I guess it depends on how high they are on Lafreniere, but I think there's a discussion to be had there.

Ottawa trading say Tkachuk and Brannstrom for #1 and then having picks #1, #3 and #5 may set their future up for decades.

I think Zadina fell off a little bit. Not sure he's a guy that's gonna give up to his draft position. I'd rather have LaFraniere. Tkachuk though would be an interesting ask. To be honest, a Matt Tkachuk is something we need more than a Taylor Hall. I know it's Brady but I get more exposure to Matt so that's what I'm basing that on.

I think the premise of trading 1 for 3 and 5 or something around that, is to also unload a contract and get an extra asset back. I can't imagine a guy like JJ or Bjugstad wouldn't be included in the deal.

@SEALBound

From what I’ve read LaFraniere is above Huges/Hischier/RNH below McJesus, Matthews, Eichel. He’s Hall or better. Definitely not Yakupov haha.

If JR could have made that initial trade we’d have Addison, our first this year and next, and be better off!

It's hard to quantify because he's a winger and wingers generally don't impact the game as much as centers, but in terms of upside/skillset he's pretty much on par with an Eichel. He's got tonnes more hockey IQ than Hall and also possesses a better shot. He's also more physical and better defensively.

In terms of projections, he's the type of winger who'll probably get around 30-35 goals and around 90 points in a lot of his prime years, with some outliers either way in peak/down seasons.

Thanks guys, so I'm pretty well on in suggesting that while he would be a fantastic talent, this isn't your next franchise player that you can't let go.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You think last year's PP was "elite"? You still recovering from the camping trip?

It was 5th in a league of 31 teams. So yes.

I'd kill for that kind of conversion rate next year.

 

[EVGENIMERLIN]

So because of our end of the season point total I just read if we don’t get #1 overall we get #15 the last pick of the non playoff teams. Is that right?

There will be talent at 15, but getting 1OVA changes everything

 

[Peat]

So because of our end of the season point total I just read if we don’t get #1 overall we get #15 the last pick of the non playoff teams. Is that right?

There will be talent at 15, but getting 1OVA changes everything

Affirmative.

Basically once the playins are done there's a lottery for those 8 teams, winner gets 9OA, losers get picks based on where they finished the season, which puts us at 15OA.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

We got a 1D and his name is Marino. Besides, I'm entirely sure how much we do use him...

I'd wait to call Marino a 1D until at some point in his sophomore season. But I can certainly see it happening.

Honestly I just want an excuse to take 3OA +5 OA. You strike right on that, and that is just as franchise altering. I can't really justify it on it's own because it's risky, but give me just enough of an addition and I'd do it. But then, I don't get the feeling Lafreniere is generational, and I don't think he's going to be regarded as the best player in this draft in 5-7 years (although he's clearly going to be up there and he's the single most likely to be so). People use Hall as a comparable - well, I feel pretty sure the equivalent of Seguin + Tarasenko will be there at 3rd + 5th if a team can just identify which ones will pop and take off and give them the right development.

Yeah, the possibility of Lafreniere turning into "a Hall" concerns me. Hall certainly isn't bad, but what if both 3 and 5, like you said, turn into "Halls" or better? But I'm not nearly as well versed in prospects as others so I'll have to take their word on Lafreniere.

 

[Andy99]

Affirmative.

Basically once the playins are done there's a lottery for those 8 teams, winner gets 9OA, losers get picks based on where they finished the season, which puts us at 15OA.

But still, why not pick 15th and get a good player that will help you sooner than next year’s pick would? ....unless you think the Pens are going to be a lottery team next year, then I guess they should give Minn this year’s pick

 

[Gurglesons]

It was 5th in a league of 31 teams. So yes.

I'd kill for that kind of conversion rate next year.

Do you remember being # 1 in SH goals against and the PP falling off a cliff for the last four or so months?

 

[EVGENIMERLIN]

But still, why not pick 15th and get a good player that will help you sooner than next year’s pick would? ....unless you think the Pens are going to be a lottery team next year, then I guess they should give Minn this year’s pick

I’d keep this years pick. I highly doubt we are a lottery team next season so 15th is the highest we’d pick over the next two years most likely.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Do you remember being # 1 in SH goals against and the PP falling off a cliff for the last four or so months?

Yes. I also know that I'd change this PP for that one in a heartbeat, because overall it was a lot better than this abomination.

Ideally, we get an RH shot with something like Kessel's offensive savvy but more responsible defensive play. And those players are out there if we're willing to pay.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yes. I also know that I'd change this PP for that one in a heartbeat, because overall it was a lot better than this abomination.

Ideally, we get an RH shot with something like Kessel's offensive savvy but more responsible defensive play. And those players are out there if we're willing to pay.

That PP literally lost us games. This PP has yet to be an issue outside of G1 and is hitting at 20% which is good enough to win a series.

For reference our PP went 9% last post season.

 

[Peat]

I'd wait to call Marino a 1D until at some point in his sophomore season. But I can certainly see it happening.

This kinda is his sophomore season tbf. But yeah. Needs a bit more proof. But damn he's close.

Yeah, the possibility of Lafreniere turning into "a Hall" concerns me. Hall certainly isn't bad, but what if both 3 and 5, like you said, turn into "Halls" or better? But I'm not nearly as well versed in prospects as others so I'll have to take their word on Lafreniere.

Basically it's certainty vs high boom. Every draft year that you don't get a Crosby or McDavid, the best picks available at 3OA + 5OA would have a better combined impact - and I think even tere, Marner + Marino Chabot or Kopitar + Letang at least creates a discussion, but a lot of the time those guyx aren't picked there. Matthews vs Tkachuk major and McAvoy? I'll take the latter thanks. Matthews vs Dubois and Julovei? Ooops!

The fact Lafreniere isn't generational and is a W, the least valuable position - I see Hossa as a comparison, I might use ready formed Mark Stone, obviously Taylor Hall is the 1OA wing comparison - and the fact this draft is loaded with potential linedrivers makes it more enticing than usual. But it'd still be a risk.

But still, why not pick 15th and get a good player that will help you sooner than next year’s pick would? ....unless you think the Pens are going to be a lottery team next year, then I guess they should give Minn this year’s pick

I guess all it takes is missing the playoffs by a point and a very lucky bounce of the ball and we're a lottery team. Bit reckless to assume that doesn't happen. Originally I wanted the player but think I probably lean towards being cautious.

Besides, lets be honest, unless the plan is to try a real quick reload for one/two years time, we're probably trading whichever pick/prospect we keep out of this year and next's for help anyway - unless it's a lottery pick. And if that's happening, I guess it doesn't matter in which order you trade the 1sts that much

 

[Ryder71]

I’d keep this years pick. I highly doubt we are a lottery team next season so 15th is the highest we’d pick over the next two years most likely.

You keep the pick no matter what, well, if we lose Friday or Saturday.

 

[dogthateats]

Let’s get Filip Hronek. Detroit doesn’t need their good young Dman.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That PP literally lost us games. This PP has yet to be an issue outside of G1 and is hitting at 20% which is good enough to win a series.

For reference our PP went 9% last post season.

That PP did not lose us games. It was a much bigger net positive than the present one.

And for small sample size reference, last playoffs Crosby, Guentzel, and Letang combined for 3 points total.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Basically it's certainty vs high boom. Every draft year that you don't get a Crosby or McDavid, the best picks available at 3OA + 5OA would have a better combined impact - and I think even tere, Marner + Marino Chabot or Kopitar + Letang at least creates a discussion, but a lot of the time those guyx aren't picked there. Matthews vs Tkachuk major and McAvoy? I'll take the latter thanks. Matthews vs Dubois and Julovei? Ooops!

The fact Lafreniere isn't generational and is a W, the least valuable position - I see Hossa as a comparison, I might use ready formed Mark Stone, obviously Taylor Hall is the 1OA wing comparison - and the fact this draft is loaded with potential linedrivers makes it more enticing than usual. But it'd still be a risk.

The problem is you're also gambling because picks 3 and 5 aren't anywhere close to sure bets as 1st OA tends to be. There's almost no chance Lafreniere busts. Even if he doesn't live up to his hype, he'll still be a top line player. Historically, only Yakupov and maybe RNH to some extent didn't live up to being what you want from a 1OA. Compare that to the guys taken 3rd and 5th those same years and it's night and day.