The reverse jinx has worked very well for me in life. I’ve won a lot of jury trials employing it, lol...I’m happy to lead a Reverse Jinx Matters protest for the Pens PO chances...or rather, maybe I should say we’ll never get lucky enough to land Lafreniere!
I took some bozo down the street to small claims court after saying "well, I mean, you're probably going to win but it's the principle of the thing". It torched him in court and won my $91 settlement and he paid my $250 court fee.
The problem is you're also gambling because picks 3 and 5 aren't anywhere close to sure bets as 1st OA tends to be. There's almost no chance Lafreniere busts. Even if he doesn't live up to his hype, he'll still be a top line player. Historically, only Yakupov and maybe RNH to some extent didn't live up to being what you want from a 1OA. Compare that to the guys taken 3rd and 5th those same years and it's night and day.
History is always 20-20. I think what you have to do is go back to past drafts with a 1OV comparable to him in recent years and then way what the 3 and 5 became vs the 1. Similars would be: Hall, RNH, Yakupov (stretch), Ekblad, Hischier, and Hughes.
Hall vs Gudbranson and Niederreiter...yikes
RNH vs Huberdeau and Ryan Strome...meh
Yakupov vs Galchenyuk and Morgan Reilly...blah
Ekblad vs Draisaitl and Dal Colle.
Hischier vs Heiskanen and Pettersson...whoa!
Hughes vs Dach and Turcotte...too early to tell.
If you look earlier to similar players, perhaps Nash and Kovalchuk?
Nash vs Bouwmeester and Whitney
Kovalchuk vs ...well I'll save it - it's two no name Russians.
So, maybe one out of the 8, you take the 3/5. Some though are a wash.