Phoenix LV: is Has Left the Building

[madhi19]

If true and PKP is being agressive with Bettman it lends credence to LeBrun's* comments that the NHL isn't exactly enamoured with the potential ownership group in Quebec.

*-I'm pretty sure it was LeBrun but I'm not 100% certain. It could have been one of the other members of ESPN. The comments were during an ESPN: Hockey Today podcast.

Considering the kind of fraudsters* the NHL approved to become owners it would be a joke for PKP to not get approved. *See my thread about it.

 

[cbcwpg]

The city getting their 50 million back would go a long way in making the league look like good partners. Afterall the city didn't build the arena for the NHL, they built it for the west gate developers. The city did pay the NHL 50 million more or less.

If the NHL was going to be "nice" and give the CoG thier money back, they wouldn't have taken it in the first place, and secondly, the CoG wouldn't have had to send an envoy ( Beasley ) to ask the NHL for a payment plan on the $5M they still owe.

Sorry, but the little town of Glendale tried to play with the big boys and the price of doing so was $50M. Rightfully or wrongly the CoG was in over thier heads and they got owned by the NHL.

 

[cheswick]

Considering the kind of fraudsters* the NHL approved to become owners it would be a joke for PKP to not get approved. *See my thread about it.

i think the same argument can be made for Jim Bailsille. I personally feel they are more concerned that the owner plays their game by their rules than if he's a quality person.

 

[madhi19]

i think the same argument can be made for Jim Bailsille. I personally feel they are more concerned that the owner plays their game by their rules than if he's a quality person.

They get a pass from me on Bailsille because he ran RIM into the ground. Plus he really tried to piss them off. PKP whatever he's negotiating hard or not is doing it privately. That just business and Bettman will respect that.

 

[CasualFan]

If they wait till November and don't the result they were hoping for, I bet the losses could be 50-60 million for that year. Winnipeg averaged 11,000 in a lame duck season. Imagine Phoenix.......the NHL would be the ridicule of the sports world if they went ahead with waiting. I don't think its worth the risk.

Wouldn't the obvious risk mitigation measure be folding the team?

There's really only three options here:

1) Keep the team in Glendale
2) Move the team
3) Fold the team

Option 1 has a low probability because the market isn't viable. In order to exist in Glendale, the NHL must get the subsidy. There are some significant obstacles in getting it.

Option 2 is slightly more probable but still does not appear to be a desirable option for the league. There do not seem to be any valid relocation options beyond Quebec. The league can likely get a much better price as an expansion rather than a transfer. It also prevents setting a precedent on timing of relocation and utilizing a "non-NHL ready" venue as an interim facility.

Option 3. If the NHL cannot get the subsidy or if JIG cannot raise the money, fold the team. There is no labor agreement to worry about. So why not go all-in on the $325MM subsidy? If you get it, great. If not, fold the franchise. The NHL could contract the team as part of the CBA negotiations with little notice and almost no discussion outside of Bettman, Daly, and Zimmerman.

There was a female media member (don't recall her name, had never heard of her before) who mentioned contraction a while ago. It was scoffed at here but it makes a lot of sense for this situation.

 

[aqib]

Ok Daly told TVA Sport today that Jamison doesnt have the money yet and that they are waiting for Judge Fink to ake a decision...I guess I am missing something because I thought that Fink gave his decision about the Emergency clause....

http://www.journaldequebec.com/2012/06/26/jamison-cherche-toujours-des-investisseurs

is there an english version of the Quebec Journal?

 

[Merci*]

is there an english version of the Quebec Journal?

Google the newspaper and it will give you the option to translate the entire newspaper online edition.

 

[CBJ goalie]

Wouldn't the obvious risk mitigation measure be folding the team?

There's really only three options here:

1) Keep the team in Glendale
2) Move the team
3) Fold the team

Option 1 has a low probability because the market isn't viable. In order to exist in Glendale, the NHL must get the subsidy. There are some significant obstacles in getting it.

Option 2 is slightly more probable but still does not appear to be a desirable option for the league. There do not seem to be any valid relocation options beyond Quebec. The league can likely get a much better price as an expansion rather than a transfer. It also prevents setting a precedent on timing of relocation and utilizing a "non-NHL ready" venue as an interim facility.

Option 3. If the NHL cannot get the subsidy or if JIG cannot raise the money, fold the team. There is no labor agreement to worry about. So why not go all-in on the $325MM subsidy? If you get it, great. If not, fold the franchise. The NHL could contract the team as part of the CBA negotiations with little notice and almost no discussion outside of Bettman, Daly, and Zimmerman.

There was a female media member (don't recall her name, had never heard of her before) who mentioned contraction a while ago. It was scoffed at here but it makes a lot of sense for this situation.

Cassie Campbell.

Quoted in this article:
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2012/04/five-questions-suspensions-and-coyotes-future.html

Edit;
Here's the quote, in response to a fan's question:

I think it postpones the inevitable. I know the league is happy that the playoffs are on in Phoenix and helping with the bottom line. The league will continue to look at all options that keep the team in Phoenix, but from what I am hearing it is pretty much a done deal that the team will be elsewhere next season. One option I have heard is to fold the franchise and have an expansion area take the team over for next season. This allows you to get the best price possible back for the team.

 

[madhi19]

Wouldn't the obvious risk mitigation measure be folding the team?

There's really only three options here:

1) Keep the team in Glendale
2) Move the team
3) Fold the team

Option 1 has a low probability because the market isn't viable. In order to exist in Glendale, the NHL must get the subsidy. There are some significant obstacles in getting it.

Option 2 is slightly more probable but still does not appear to be a desirable option for the league. There do not seem to be any valid relocation options beyond Quebec. The league can likely get a much better price as an expansion rather than a transfer. It also prevents setting a precedent on timing of relocation and utilizing a "non-NHL ready" venue as an interim facility.

Option 3. If the NHL cannot get the subsidy or if JIG cannot raise the money, fold the team. There is no labor agreement to worry about. So why not go all-in on the $325MM subsidy? If you get it, great. If not, fold the franchise. The NHL could contract the team as part of the CBA negotiations with little notice and almost no discussion outside of Bettman, Daly, and Zimmerman.

There was a female media member (don't recall her name, had never heard of her before) who mentioned contraction a while ago. It was scoffed at here but it makes a lot of sense for this situation.

You tell me the NHL can get more for a piece of paper and 23 reject that the rest of the league don't want anymore instead of a team who just reached the conference final. If you fold you eat the loss now and have to pay interest on whatever loan you got to finance this fiasco for at least a year. If you relocate you clean off the debt now. As for the old colisé not being NHL ready that what the renovation is for. Detroit is still playing in the Joe Louis arena, the Oilers are still in the same arena that they were using when the Nordiques left. If the league relocate it will be PKP problem to turn a profit in the old colisé or at least break even for three years.

 

[Slashers98]

Folding the team doesn't make any sense as Maloney would have received the red light regarding trades, yet he acquired Z. Michalek for picks and prospects and they drafted like the team is staying in Glendale...

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Folding the team would result in the NHL and the other 29 franchises realizing a $170+ million loss. That could possibly be recooped down the line, but tough nut to swallow today.

 

[Einstein Theory]

Wouldn't the obvious risk mitigation measure be folding the team?

There's really only three options here:

1) Keep the team in Glendale
2) Move the team
3) Fold the team

Option 1 has a low probability because the market isn't viable. In order to exist in Glendale, the NHL must get the subsidy. There are some significant obstacles in getting it.

Option 2 is slightly more probable but still does not appear to be a desirable option for the league. There do not seem to be any valid relocation options beyond Quebec. The league can likely get a much better price as an expansion rather than a transfer. It also prevents setting a precedent on timing of relocation and utilizing a "non-NHL ready" venue as an interim facility.

Option 3. If the NHL cannot get the subsidy or if JIG cannot raise the money, fold the team. There is no labor agreement to worry about. So why not go all-in on the $325MM subsidy? If you get it, great. If not, fold the franchise. The NHL could contract the team as part of the CBA negotiations with little notice and almost no discussion outside of Bettman, Daly, and Zimmerman.

There was a female media member (don't recall her name, had never heard of her before) who mentioned contraction a while ago. It was scoffed at here but it makes a lot of sense for this situation.

Agreed on your analysis of Option 3, but you miss one item. The league paid $140M for the team and has likely had to cover $10M - $20M in losses above Glendale's subsidy. So the NHL would be out somewhere around $200M.

Maybe they get that back through expansion later, but I'm thinking the BOG would have the little general's (aka Bettman's) head.

The reporter you mentioned was Cassie Campbell. Former Canadian female hockey Olympian and current CBC reporter

 

[manisback121]

Peladeau is a savvy businessman and he knows Bettman has his hands tied so he will never pay $230 for the Coyotes... that's why the two parties have been negotiating harder in the past week or so.

It takes a while to complete a sale of great magnitude. ****, even with my last house I put an offer, the other folks dropped by peanuts we negotiated, then they dropped for someone else who couldn't get a mortgage.

I settle cases where my adversaries want unreasonable figures paid to them.

It may take a while for the significant drop in price. Its negotiation like any other transaction involving large sums---I'm oversimplifying this yes, but want to be as plain as possible as to what the overall process is.

 

[objectiveposter]

folding the team makes no sense whatsoever.. quebec has a max price they are willing to pay for a franchise... if you are bettman you figure out what it is and sell the coyotes for that amount. If anything... Quebec would be willing to pay more for the Coyotes over an expansion team because you dont have to start from scratch.

nhl folds the team (170 mill loss) awards quebec expansion team (230 mill).. net gain 60 mill while maintaining 30 teams.

nhl sells coyotes to quebes for 170 mill plus 60 mill relocation fee... net gain 60 mill with 30 teams.

its the same both ways... no chance in hell they fold the team unless they dont want to sell to quebec for some reason.

 

[CasualFan]

Folding the team would result in the NHL and the other 29 franchises realizing a $170+ million loss. That could possibly be recooped down the line, but tough nut to swallow today.

Agree. But without knowing how much they would lose on an immediate Quebec location (assuming that PKP would even agree to purchase the franchise for the coming season) it's impossible to compare the options. If the relocation price only allows partial recovery, I would think the fold/expand strategy would have strong support among owners.

 

[Killion]

1) Keep the team in Glendale
2) Move the team
3) Fold the team

1) Even without a subsidy the NHL may have no choice at this juncture, stuck. Extract what they can while they can, buy another season.

2) If as opined they are stuck... end of speculation. Maybe they've got some kind of a deal cooking for 13-14 with Jamison/Levin-Seattle, saving QC & Markham for Expansion 2015. Who knows?. Circular endless waste of nano's trying to figure that one out.

3) Contraction; I dont see that flying CF. The league'd have to eat close to $200M in losses, losing balance in the conferences, a real nightmare optically & practically. I can appreciate the suggestion as its pure, cold & calculating Spockian Logic to consider it, however, the only way they could recoup their investment in the desert would be through unencumbered Expansion fee's; theyd still be out $200M. Better they should hang onto it, sell it now or later coming or going.

 

[CasualFan]

folding the team makes no sense whatsoever.. quebec has a max price they are willing to pay for a franchise... if you are bettman you figure out what it is and sell the coyotes for that amount. If anything... Quebec would be willing to pay more for the Coyotes over an expansion team because you dont have to start from scratch.

nhl folds the team (170 mill loss) awards quebec expansion team (230 mill).. net gain 60 mill while maintaining 30 teams.

nhl sells coyotes to quebes for 170 mill plus 60 mill relocation fee... net gain 60 mill with 30 teams.

its the same both ways... no chance in hell they fold the team unless they dont want to sell to quebec for some reason.

Your entire point is based on two unsubstantiated theories:

1- PKP is willing to buy the team for the upcoming season
2- PKP is willing to pay the NHLs asking price for the team right now

Until you realize that there is no factual basis or evidence to support either of those theories, then you will always scoff at the possibility of contracting the team.

 

[madhi19]

Your entire point is based on two unsubstantiated theories:

1- PKP is willing to buy the team for the upcoming season
2- PKP is willing to pay the NHLs asking price for the team right now

Until you realize that there is no factual basis or evidence to support either of those theories, then you will always scoff at the possibility of contracting the team.

Why is it so hard to get that PKP will not want to wait. The market won't be forever in his favour with Markham and Seattle coming to the dance soon. The league on the other hand had reasons to drag this situation. Maybe until recently they felt Jamison really had a shot at pulling it off. It not happening and PKP will not risk losing his chance now so the league will get their price. Give or take a few million.

 

[Undertakerqc]

I remember reading Daly saying that there are much more inticing option then folding the team. Folks, they are not folding the team. Case closed.

 

[Confucius]

Your entire point is based on two unsubstantiated theories:

1- PKP is willing to buy the team for the upcoming season
2- PKP is willing to pay the NHLs asking price for the team right now

Until you realize that there is no factual basis or evidence to support either of those theories, then you will always scoff at the possibility of contracting the team.

I think if the team stays or if the league contracts, we can conclude the league had no buyer for the team, at anything close to the league asking price.

 

[Kismet]

A little OT - but a tad amusing...

Casino opponents launch new website

The group’s study by Valley economist Elliot D. Pollack and Co. found the resort and casino would only generate about $172,500 annually for Glendale or less than a $1 a year per resident.
...

The Tohono O’odham Nation said the study was “largely based on information that is either implied or simply made up.â€

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/westsideinsider/165229

 

[madhi19]

A little OT - but a tad amusing...
http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/westsideinsider/165229

Glendale could solve both their empty arena problem and that Casino mess in one move. I wonder why they have not done it? On one side you got a soon to be empty but nearly new building on the other you got a native tribe who want a casino.

 

[blues10]

A little OT - but a tad amusing...



http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/westsideinsider/165229

I wonder if Hocking provided the numbers to Pollack. These guys are amazing with numbers.

The group’s study by Valley economist Elliot D. Pollack and Co. found the resort and casino would only generate about $172,500 annually for Glendale or less than a $1 a year per resident.

 

[Confucius]

A little OT - but a tad amusing...



http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/westsideinsider/165229

Only 172,000 per year for a casino. What a crock of ****. Back in the seventies in highschool we ran a crown and anchor wheel for charity. I'm talking one crown and Anchor wheel. We made about a thousand dollars a weekend. We ran it for 3 weekends (Fri and Saturday nights). So that would be 52 grand a year in 1970's money. High school kids running one wheel.

 

[Slashers98]

This plane is going to particular places!

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CGCGT