Phoenix CXVIII: No Promises

[Llama19]

Yeah, these are just "Potential Sites" not "deep in talks"

Read the excellent post by CasualFan on this and also this post...

 

[TheLegend]

Yeah, these are just "Potential Sites" not "deep in talks"

The Karsten site IS where they're pointing to.

I was told about this a few weeks ago by someone who works in AZ media and who got this directly from people at ASU. Boivin's article confirms what I was also told, in that ASU had asked the Coyotes to hold off on commenting about it. This was the reason why LeBlanc suddenly went quiet up until the interview with ABC 15 in Phoenix.

 

[Llama19]

The Karsten site IS where they're pointing to.

I was told about this a few weeks ago by someone who works in AZ media and who got this directly from people at ASU. Boivin's article confirms what I was also told, in that ASU had asked the Coyotes to hold off on commenting about it. This was the reason why LeBlanc suddenly went quiet up until the interview with ABC 15 in Phoenix.

Interesting...as my 'someone' was stating the exact opposite...

That ASU was not talking at all with LeBlanc...

 

[MNNumbers]

The Karsten site IS where they're pointing to.

I was told about this a few weeks ago by someone who works in AZ media and who got this directly from people at ASU. Boivin's article confirms what I was also told, in that ASU had asked the Coyotes to hold off on commenting about it. This was the reason why LeBlanc suddenly went quiet up until the interview with ABC 15 in Phoenix.

Legend,

That makes perfect sense, in that ASU would definitely not want all kinds of publicity about that kind of discussion.

I am 2000 miles away, and don't know anyone there.

But, from my limited awareness from where I sit, Casual Fan's post, quoted by Llama above, seems to pour a certain amount of cold water on the Karsten site being done quickly.

I am going to simply put a guess in here - given that the Development District has to have some infrastructure nearly up and running before ASU is going to be able to sell bonds against it, and that ASU is looking at a '20 year plan' (according to quotes in CF's post), I think a reasonable timeline there is perhaps another 18 months before ASU is in a position to fund much in the way of an arena. And, again, this is sort of totally guessing, but I am guessing that, at that timeline, they are not going to fund the whole thing, and then turn all the $$ over to IA.

So, for this to work, you have something like....

ASU: Well, Anthony, we can continue to discuss this. You might have to put up 200M yourselves to get it done.

IA: Hhhmm, like you said, we need to think more and talk more.

ASU: And, it's not going to be done until 4 years, minimum....

IA: Thanks. It's nice to know the timeline we are working with....

And, only after all those talks develop completely, and IA knows the timeline they are working with, will they go to AEG and talk temporary leases.

I think it's very complicated for IA. It seems to me that they have several years to wait out the matter. It still seems to me that they have large losses each year while they wait. I'm not sure that ASU is going to be able to finally sign off on such a deal.

And, I am not sure exactly what AEG is thinking about this. Killion thinks AEG is in bed with NHL, and will facilitate the Coyotes in any way possible, trying to burn Glendale in the process. I am not sure about that. If AEG is truly in it for themselves, and their choices are motivated purely by financial considerations, then they have a very strong hand to play, because they know that IA is going to need an arena for several more years while they wait, and that knowledge can be used to generate a good rent income for AEG/Glendale (the monies would get shared according to the Arena Management Contract), or, perhaps to simply lock the Yotes out of the market. Or, force them to rent from Sarver.

It's complicated...

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Yeah, my point was that its finally coming out in the open.

 

[TheLegend]

Legend,

That makes perfect sense, in that ASU would definitely not want all kinds of publicity about that kind of discussion.

I am 2000 miles away, and don't know anyone there.

But, from my limited awareness from where I sit, Casual Fan's post, quoted by Llama above, seems to pour a certain amount of cold water on the Karsten site being done quickly.

I am going to simply put a guess in here - given that the Development District has to have some infrastructure nearly up and running before ASU is going to be able to sell bonds against it, and that ASU is looking at a '20 year plan' (according to quotes in CF's post), I think a reasonable timeline there is perhaps another 18 months before ASU is in a position to fund much in the way of an arena. And, again, this is sort of totally guessing, but I am guessing that, at that timeline, they are not going to fund the whole thing, and then turn all the $$ over to IA.

So, for this to work, you have something like....

ASU: Well, Anthony, we can continue to discuss this. You might have to put up 200M yourselves to get it done.

IA: Hhhmm, like you said, we need to think more and talk more.

ASU: And, it's not going to be done until 4 years, minimum....

IA: Thanks. It's nice to know the timeline we are working with....

And, only after all those talks develop completely, and IA knows the timeline they are working with, will they go to AEG and talk temporary leases.

I think it's very complicated for IA. It seems to me that they have several years to wait out the matter. It still seems to me that they have large losses each year while they wait. I'm not sure that ASU is going to be able to finally sign off on such a deal.

And, I am not sure exactly what AEG is thinking about this. Killion thinks AEG is in bed with NHL, and will facilitate the Coyotes in any way possible, trying to burn Glendale in the process. I am not sure about that. If AEG is truly in it for themselves, and their choices are motivated purely by financial considerations, then they have a very strong hand to play, because they know that IA is going to need an arena for several more years while they wait, and that knowledge can be used to generate a good rent income for AEG/Glendale (the monies would get shared according to the Arena Management Contract), or, perhaps to simply lock the Yotes out of the market. Or, force them to rent from Sarver.

It's complicated...

The ironic part of that is... Glendale had a choice of new arena managers and they chose AEG. Because.... (and this is my own theory, and) if you want to believe Ian Hugh, they couldn't trust IA any more (and they had good reason to) but brought in a friendly face to work with.

I don't think AEG came into it with any covert plan in mind to stick it to Glendale. They did insist on their own out clause in case they couldn't get the Coyotes to stay.

But you're right.... it's complicated. And there is a question that's been in the back of my mind for a while now (which CF might be able to answer). We know that IA looked into setting up a special tax district with the state. And that ASU had their own already set up. The question was would it be possible for IA to somehow making an arrangement with ASU that ties them into ASU's STD??

As an example scenario I'll use Camelback Ranch. CR Ranch is owned by the City of Glendale yet it resides in the city of Phoenix. Therefore city sales taxes collected are supposed to belong to Phoenix. However the two cities came to an agreement to split the sales tax revenues.

Was looking around to see if I could find what the break down of it was and came across the following....

http://www.glendaleaz.com/Clerk/agendasandminutes/Workshops/Agendas/021814-W01.pdf

This was minutes to a Glendale city council workshop in 2014 that outlined the history and current status of CR Ranch and it makes reference to the handling of sales taxes.

Not sure if it offers any insight to the question I have, but that's why I'm asking.

 

[Mightygoose]

The Karsten site IS where they're pointing to.

I was told about this a few weeks ago by someone who works in AZ media and who got this directly from people at ASU. Boivin's article confirms what I was also told, in that ASU had asked the Coyotes to hold off on commenting about it. This was the reason why LeBlanc suddenly went quiet up until the interview with ABC 15 in Phoenix.

Interesting...as my 'someone' was stating the exact opposite...

That ASU was not talking at all with LeBlanc...

Perhaps you're 'both right' ...in a sense.

It would make sense that IA had conversations with ASU among other possible suitors.

Out of all of the east valley locations being bantied about, ASU has the closest thing to a need for a new arena. I've thought for a while that they're open to partnering with IA

Of course I've also questioned the viability of a building that will suit both ASU and it's programs and the Coyotes, along with sharing revnues, prime dates, nanlming rights, permanted signage etc...

To add with a possible long timeline as mentioned in CF's post along with NM's thoughts along this, the longer they go without a firm plan forward, the less leverage they'll have with an extension at GRA.

So yes, going back to Shannon's tweet earlier in the week, it's best fhey announce at least the firm site as soon as possible...today would be an indeal dsy to do so to keep the market engaged.

 

[MNNumbers]

The ironic part of that is... Glendale had a choice of new arena managers and they chose AEG. Because.... (and this is my own theory, and) if you want to believe Ian Hugh, they couldn't trust IA any more (and they had good reason to) but brought in a friendly face to work with.

I don't think AEG came into it with any covert plan in mind to stick it to Glendale. They did insist on their own out clause in case they couldn't get the Coyotes to stay.

But you're right.... it's complicated. And there is a question that's been in the back of my mind for a while now (which CF might be able to answer). We know that IA looked into setting up a special tax district with the state. And that ASU had their own already set up. The question was would it be possible for IA to somehow making an arrangement with ASU that ties them into ASU's STD??

As an example scenario I'll use Camelback Ranch. CR Ranch is owned by the City of Glendale yet it resides in the city of Phoenix. Therefore city sales taxes collected are supposed to belong to Phoenix. However the two cities came to an agreement to split the sales tax revenues.

Was looking around to see if I could find what the break down of it was and came across the following....

http://www.glendaleaz.com/Clerk/agendasandminutes/Workshops/Agendas/021814-W01.pdf

This was minutes to a Glendale city council workshop in 2014 that outlined the history and current status of CR Ranch and it makes reference to the handling of sales taxes.

Not sure if it offers any insight to the question I have, but that's why I'm asking.

That's interesting about piggy-backing a tax district.

One comment about AEG, and then a question, TL.

About AEG, if they are truly playing straight in wanting to manage GRA for Glendale, then that means that under no circumstances would they want another facility in the Valley. That is probably the reason for their out-clause. So, if I am AEG, and I learn the arena plans of IA, I simply negotiate a very high rent for them while they wait the new stadium. Something like...2M/yr to use the facility, and IA gets only half of game-night revenues. And, no naming rights. Etc. As long as IA intends to put me out of business, I am going to make it difficult for them to do so. Negotiating like that would, or course, give IA a serious case of indigestion. They would be faced with 3 choices: Swallow and pay AEG at GRA. Negotiate with the Suns and Phoenix to play at Talking Stick (which is problematic because the rink doesn't fit, etc, etc, etc). Look into a way to use Vets (which has its own set of costs and problems as far as we have learned here, not least of which may be a non-functioning ice plant - and I am sorry if I remember that wrong). Faced with those choices, IA might decide to look into a relo (not that I am advocating that - I am just trying to follow how AEG might look at the situation). And, for AEG, if the Yotes move out-of-market, that might be as good a result as any...

Now, the question: Do you really think that has any serious $$ to bring in an offer for a new arena? And, do you agree with many here that they will require the sweetheart lease in order to make it financially, and that will have to be part of the negotiations?

Thanks

 

[Slashers98]

^^

AEG has nothing to gain by providing a home for the Coyotes during a couple of seasons if they know they are building a new arena in the vicinity that will hurt AEG's capacity to draw large events at GRA in the future...

 

[MNNumbers]

AEG has nothing to gain by providing a home for the Coyotes during a couple of seasons if they know they are building a new arena in the vicinity that will hurt AEG's capacity to draw large events at GRA in the future...

That's what I said. Or, meant to say. If they are straight players, and not shills for the NHL, that's exactly right. And, it's the reason they should offer IA a ridiculously high rent for a temporary lease.

 

[Mightygoose]

That's what I said. Or, meant to say. If they are straight players, and not shills for the NHL, that's exactly right. And, it's the reason they should offer IA a ridiculously high rent for a temporary lease.

In addition, if AEG are NHL schills, then I think they would have been in serious negotiations or even have one reached for long terms arrangements at GRA.

I still believe Glendale picked them because they have the best chance of keeping the Coyotes long term.

If the Coyotes leave, AEG and renegotiate their lease or leave GRA completely - they don't have to make a bad deal.

If AEG leaves, Glendale can start a RFP for a new arena manager as there were two other bidders last time. They don't need to make a bad deal either.

This only blows up on Glendale if there is a new arena built in the valley. I agree with the thought that the Coyotes exiting the valley could actually be a win for both parties.

 

[cutchemist42]

If you're ASU why would you want the bad arena optics that 5000ish basketball games have in an NHL arena? No one likes sitting in an arena that doesnt seem full. The atmosphere would be dreadful. Unless ASU actually gets 12,000ish a game?

 

[MNNumbers]

In addition, if AEG are NHL schills, then I think they would have been in serious negotiations or even have one reached for long terms arrangements at GRA.

I still believe Glendale picked them because they have the best chance of keeping the Coyotes long term.

If the Coyotes leave, AEG and renegotiate their lease or leave GRA completely - they don't have to make a bad deal.

If AEG leaves, Glendale can start a RFP for a new arena manager as there were two other bidders last time. They don't need to make a bad deal either.

This only blows up on Glendale if there is a new arena built in the valley. I agree with the thought that the Coyotes exiting the valley could actually be a win for both parties.

Actually, this discussion points up another difficult situation for IA. It doesn't really matter who they are working with right now. Only Glendale/AEG, City of Phoenix (Talking Stick), and whoever is responsible for Vets Memorial (and I think that's a state agency, but not sure) are able to supply a temp home for the team, and they need a temp home for at least 2 more years, and maybe more than that.

All of those agencies who can provide a temp home have no incentive to do so, because the new arena infringes on their business.

So, if you are IA, how are you going to negotiate that one??

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

If you're ASU why would you want the bad arena optics that 5000ish basketball games have in an NHL arena? No one likes sitting in an arena that doesnt seem full. The atmosphere would be dreadful. Unless ASU actually gets 12,000ish a game?

Pretty easy thing to google, they averaged about 5-6 thousand per game in 13/14

 

[Killion]

About AEG, if they are truly playing straight in wanting to manage GRA for Glendale, then that means that under no circumstances would they want another facility in the Valley. That is probably the reason for their out-clause. So, if I am AEG, and I learn the arena plans of IA, I simply negotiate a very high rent for them while they wait the new stadium. Something like...2M/yr to use the facility, and IA gets only half of game-night revenues. And, no naming rights. Etc. As long as IA intends to put me out of business, I am going to make it difficult for them to do so. Negotiating like that would, or course, give IA a serious case of indigestion.

Right, and I dont believe they are (playing it straight). The out-clause a huge red-flag to me, dead giveaway. So how about this theory; in concert with the NHL itself, AEG cut's a sweetheart of an extension dealeo with IA for the next 3 seasons provided LeBlanc delivers with the site, with financing & concrete partners with some serious bona-fides... and heres the real kicker... AEG itself one of the primary investors & main developers of this new facility in fronting money & intelligence to LeBlanc... all of this under the cover of darkness, silence of night... unknown entirely of course to the COG... who of course will be notified when this new facility opens that AEG will indeed be terminating their agreement... moving east a few clicks, taking over the management of this new facility in conjunction with Leblanc & Co.... Ha?. See, Im not so much a Conspiracy Theorist as Im a Conspiracy Analyst MNN... and this one makes sense... and as author Gore Vidal once said, "conspiracy theory is now shorthand for unspeakable truths" (because lets face it, pretty diabolical if you think through the ramifications of such, follow that thread) and so maybe, just maybe Im right yes? The dots absolutely connect. We'll see.

That's what I said. Or, meant to say. If they are straight players, and not shills for the NHL, that's exactly right. And, it's the reason they should offer IA a ridiculously high rent for a temporary lease.

Indivisible with the NHL... about as straight & smooth as a Moonshiners track through the hills of West Virginia.... Copperhead Road, Midnight, Big Black Dodge, Armed to the Teef... so no, thats not (rent gouging) happening. See above.

Actually, this discussion points up another difficult situation for IA. It doesn't really matter who they are working with right now. Only Glendale/AEG, City of Phoenix (Talking Stick), and whoever is responsible for Vets Memorial (and I think that's a state agency, but not sure) are able to supply a temp home for the team, and they need a temp home for at least 2 more years, and maybe more than that.

All of those agencies who can provide a temp home have no incentive to do so, because the new arena infringes on their business.

So, if you are IA, how are you going to negotiate that one??

War Vets would welcome the club Im sure as theyd have to invest tens of millions in upgrades, and as its operated as a Not For Profit that'd be a nice boon, windfall for them....

As for Talking Stick & Sarver, temporary home, I dont think he'd have a problem taking their money at all, dont think he'd gouge. He too in pursuit of a new facility of course, in some respects a competitor to IA's ambitions, will be a direct competitor for concert & event business however, old saying, keep your friends close, your enemies even closer. So... what could be better than to have these upstarts playing under your roof temporarily? All kinds of opportunities to stick the knife in & twist it.

Well, AEG is now the buffer between IA & the COG, employed by the latter to effectively look out for their interests, fill the barn.... and of course the City Fathers once again... in their infinite wisdom... what do they do?..... They hire a Fox to mind the HenHouse.... A Fox btw who is I believe more than likely in cahoots with Wile E. Coyote.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Even if they play out of Glendale while waiting for ASU to build them their dream home, I wouldn't cry foul.

Might as well take advantage of it, and make some free money, considering they really don't have another option in the valley. They should charge pretty high though.

 

[Mightygoose]

Right, and I dont believe they are (playing it straight). The out-clause a huge red-flag to me, dead giveaway. So how about this theory; in concert with the NHL itself, AEG cut's a sweetheart of an extension dealeo with IA for the next 3 seasons provided LeBlanc delivers with the site, with financing & concrete partners with some serious bona-fides... and heres the real kicker... AEG itself one of the primary investors & main developers of this new facility in fronting money & intelligence to LeBlanc... all of this under the cover of darkness, silence of night... unknown entirely of course to the COG... who of course will be notified when this new facility opens that AEG will indeed be terminating their agreement... moving east a few clicks, taking over the management of this new facility in conjunction with Leblanc & Co.... Ha?. See, Im not so much a Conspiracy Theorist as Im a Conspiracy Analyst MNN... and this one makes sense... and as author Gore Vidal once said, "conspiracy theory is now shorthand for unspeakable truths" (because lets face it, pretty diabolical if you think through the ramifications of such, follow that thread) and so maybe, just maybe Im right yes? The dots absolutely connect. We'll see



Indivisible with the NHL... about as straight & smooth as a Moonshiners track through the hills of West Virginia.... Copperhead Road or whatever... so no, thats not (rent gouging) happening. See above.



War Vets would welcome the club Im sure as theyd have to invest tens of millions in upgrades, and as its operated as a Not For Profit that'd be a nice boon, windfall for them....

As for Talking Stick & Sarver, temporary home, I dont think he'd have a problem taking their money at all, dont think he'd gouge. He too in pursuit of a new facility of course, in some respects a competitor to IA's ambitions, will be a direct competitor for concert & event business however, old saying, keep your friends close, your enemies even closer. So... what could be better than to have these upstarts playing under your roof temporarily? All kinds of opportunities to stick the knife in & twist it.

Well, AEG is now the buffer between IA & the COG, employed by the latter to effectively look out for their interests, fill the barn.... and of course the City Fathers once again... in their infinite wisdom... what do they do?..... They hire a Fox to mind the HenHouse.... A Fox btw who is I believe more than likely in cahoots with Wile E. Coyote.

That's quite the conspiracy theory and can go side by side with the theories pointing them out of town too. Too many variables

The ultimate inside job for sure and with the veil so thick on this, no reason to dismiss it.

We shall see for sure and if this does happen...then frame your post forever and well done in advance

 

[Killion]

Even if they play out of Glendale while waiting for ASU to build them their dream home, I wouldn't cry foul.

Might as well take advantage of it, and make some free money, considering they really don't have another option in the valley. They should charge pretty high though.

They wont. Wouldnt make sense, not in their interests to do so. These are the owners of the Kings for one thing, keeping that team in Arizona (along with the addition of Vegas, pre-existence of Dallas, Colorado to a lesser extent) is good for the league, good for the game throughout the SW & SoCal. How would they explain to Bettman & Daly, the BOG's that they decided to get greedy (and it would be the NHL having to subsidize some onerous rental fee so...) & in doing so forced the team out of State? They manage a number of NHL facilities, repercussions would be swift & costly. Their not about to go Rogue on the NHL, hands that feed them.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

They wont. Wouldnt make sense, not in their interests to do so. These are the owners of the Kings for one thing, keeping that team in Arizona (along with the addition of Vegas, pre-existence of Dallas, Colorado to a lesser extent) is good for the league, good for the game throughout the SW & SoCal. How would they explain to Bettman & Daly, the BOG's that they decided to get greedy (and it would be the NHL having to subsidize some onerous rental fee so...) & in doing so forced the team out of State? They manage a number of NHL facilities, repercussions would be swift & costly. Their not about to go Rogue on the NHL, hands that feed them.

Pretty sure any contract would have to be approved by the COG, but im not about to go digging through council minutes to try and figure that out, and its probably not even available without a FOIA request.

 

[MNNumbers]

Pretty sure any contract would have to be approved by the COG, but im not about to go digging through council minutes to try and figure that out, and its probably not even available without a FOIA request.

Actually, it is clearly available. AEG is responsible for any changes or further negotiations with the team, but need to consult COG and keep them abreast of what is happening. That's in the AEG/COG contract.

What that exactly means is up for interpretation. And, how it would be implemented is as well.

I don't want to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon, but I will say this:

COG did a good thing by voiding the prior lease, when they had legal cause to do so.
COG did a good thing by putting arena management out for bids.
COG did a foolish thing by signing with AEG. SMG would have been a better choice.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Actually, it is clearly available. AEG is responsible for any changes or further negotiations with the team, but need to consult COG and keep them abreast of what is happening. That's in the AEG/COG contract.

What that exactly means is up for interpretation. And, how it would be implemented is as well.

I don't want to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon, but I will say this:

COG did a good thing by voiding the prior lease, when they had legal cause to do so.
COG did a good thing by putting arena management out for bids.
COG did a foolish thing by signing with AEG. SMG would have been a better choice.

Thanks Numbers.

That's a lot of fluffy language in such a contract

If something goes really bad for Glendale, they do have a little bit of recourse to stop it at least.

 

[Mightygoose]

Thanks Numbers.

That's a lot of fluffy language in such a contract

If something goes really bad for Glendale, they do have a little bit of recourse to stop it at least.

If I remember correctly, the agreement with AEG is only valid for 5 years. Which would expire in 2021.

Depending on how long it will really take to get an arena up an running at ASU, the longest extension the Coyotes can get is 4 years. After that, for sure CoG would have to approve just to get AEG on board for longer....or reopen it to others but that's me spitballing.

Thinking over Killion's theory some more, it think it would make more sense at another East Valley location if ASU's timeline may be too long to play out. Also with IA already saying no thanks to the Pavillion location, they'll be running out of optinns soon.

 

[Killion]

Thinking over Killion's theory some more, it think it would make more sense at another East Valley location if ASU's timeline may be too long to play out. Also with IA already saying no thanks to the Pavillion location, they'll be running out of optinns soon.

Yeah, the timing on this is not good to put it mildly. IA has an advanced schedule & time-line, ASU and certainly Sarver one that is far more relaxed. One also has to factor in the D-Backs situation, contemplating just how much largess even exists and what might or might not be available from any given municipality & or the State itself; institutionally from ASU.... Whats also very curious, 2nd link below courtesy of Llama & CasualFan...

Read the excellent post by CasualFan on this and also this post...

... ASU subject to transparency guidelines, so far as we know no "official talk", proof-positive in the form of recorded minutes of meetings amongst the Board of Regents etc?... so how does one take reports that IA is working towards a deal with ASU when they refuse to comment and theres nothing on the record to suggest that their in anyway "advanced", on the same timeline, schedule; SuperBullet Locomotive as that purportedly being piloted by IceArizona?. Doesnt add-up. ASU, any university really, like Supertankers, taking forever to turn, get from point A to point B. All kinds of i's to dot & t's to cross. Their schedule completely incompatible to that of IA's & never mind size of facility, whats really required etc etc etc? And "no comment"? Nothing on the record? What gives here? Very peculiar yet no one from ASU is actually denying any of this. Youd think they would if it was all nothing more than a load of Bollocks huh?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

I would assume leblanks definition of super advanced is a lot different then our definition

 

[The Feckless Puck]

If you're ASU why would you want the bad arena optics that 5000ish basketball games have in an NHL arena? No one likes sitting in an arena that doesnt seem full. The atmosphere would be dreadful. Unless ASU actually gets 12,000ish a game?

Of all the issues surrounding this situation, this one is probably the least worrisome. It's essentially a design issue that they could solve with the architect. In fact, if ASU is indeed involved then the facility is going to be built from the first block to be multipurpose and multi-configuration.

If anyone's worried about optics, the thing to worry about would be whether the configuration for NHL games would result in obstructed views and awkward angles like Barclay's Center in Brooklyn.