OT: Phillies: I'm Starting To Think Our Bank Accounts Are Frozen: Offseason Part Two

[baudib1]

Did Machado choose SD because he can play SS there?

I'm still not really sure which player I'd prefer in a vacuum, but he's not a long-term answer at SS and will probably be a huge liability there within 3-4 years (if he's not already).

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Did Machado choose SD because he can play SS there?

I'm still not really sure which player I'd prefer in a vacuum, but he's not a long-term answer at SS and will probably be a huge liability there within 3-4 years (if he's not already).

Chose it cause it’s San Diego and it was the most guaranteed money.

 

[baudib1]

Yeah fair enough.

Unless you want to be seen at Lakers games and date movie stars, San Diego is infinitely better than LA, regardless if the weather is slightly better in one place or the other.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

It's a good situation for Machado in SD -- a dreamy city with a good hispanic influence and it's just remote enough of a market that he can "hide" there from serious national criticism if he blows.

Philly's kind of a scary town to play in, so I get it. Dude is weak. I don't think Harper has issues with us, but has just been waiting for the $ to be upped so he can say he's the highest paid player.

Middleton definitely should be on the hot seat though. Can't say you're going to spend "stupid" money and then months later say you didn't sign a free agent (Machado) because his price was out of your valuation of him...Apparently, he forgot what "stupid money" means.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I know the Phillies will have a much improved team w/o Harper.

But as the Phillies, you can't improve the team this much and have a generational player right there at your fingertips that could push you into World Series contention either this year or the next coming years for multiple years and waver because of cost.

The cost is irrelevant at this point, he will make that money in ten fold.

 

[CHIP72]

I know the Phillies will have a much improved team w/o Harper.

But as the Phillies, you can't improve the team this much and have a generational player right there at your fingertips that could push you into World Series contention either this year or the next coming years for multiple years and waver because of cost.

The cost is irrelevant at this point, he will make that money in ten fold.

Based on his career up to this point, I'm not sure Bryce Harper is a generational player, or even a genuinely great player. Living in the DC area and attending a handful of Nationals games every year, I can tell you Harper's defense has declined significantly since came into the majors in 2012, and he's unusually inconsistent from year to year for a really good player. Honestly, I'd rather wait two years and see the Phillies go very hard after Mike Trout than for them to sign Harper now, if they decide they only want to try to sign one of those players.

I personally wanted Machado (who I've also seen a handful of times due to seeing the Orioles at least 3-5 times in Baltimore per season and have liked since he came to the majors) because he's a more consistent player and plays better defense, arguably much better defense, at a more important/difficult to play defensive position. Having said that, Machado isn't really a generational player either, so I can understand and to some degree agree with the rationale of not paying him.

 

[Prongo]

I feel like people thinking if we sign Harper than it might impact our ability to sign trout are just wrong. When trout hits the FA market the Phillies will be the #1 reported destination. You can have two large contracts on your team. If Middleton is serious about winning, than the competitive luxury tax shouldn’t be a huge issue with him.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Based on his career up to this point, I'm not sure Bryce Harper is a generational player, or even a genuinely great player. Living in the DC area and attending a handful of Nationals games every year, I can tell you Harper's defense has declined significantly since came into the majors in 2012, and he's unusually inconsistent from year to year for a really good player. Honestly, I'd rather wait two years and see the Phillies go very hard after Mike Trout than for them to sign Harper now, if they decide they only want to try to sign one of those players.

I personally wanted Machado (who I've also seen a handful of times due to seeing the Orioles at least 3-5 times in Baltimore per season and have liked since he came to the majors) because he's a more consistent player and plays better defense, arguably much better defense, at a more important/difficult to play defensive position. Having said that, Machado isn't really a generational player either, so I can understand and to some degree agree with the rationale of not paying him.

Career OPS of .900 is pretty frigging good.

Also, was Williams a great RFer? Nope. If Harper is just as good as a defender as Williams, but a lot better hitter, that's an improvement.

 

[Branko]

ah, another day, another $300 million dollars.

 

[Rebels57]

This has been the most frustrating free agent process I can ever remember as a Philadelphia sports fan.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Career OPS of .900 is pretty frigging good.

Also, was Williams a great RFer? Nope. If Harper is just as good as a defender as Williams, but a lot better hitter, that's an improvement.

The defensive bar shouldn’t be Nick Williams. He stinks.

Harper and Williams were 2nd and 3rd worst in DRS for RFers last year fwiw. Castellanos was the worst but he’s a converted INF who played about 400 more innings at the position.

The likelihood of a DH gives them some cushion, but that’s a lot of dough to give a guy to just hit.

 

[CHIP72]

I feel like people thinking if we sign Harper than it might impact our ability to sign trout are just wrong. When trout hits the FA market the Phillies will be the #1 reported destination. You can have two large contracts on your team. If Middleton is serious about winning, than the competitive luxury tax shouldn’t be a huge issue with him.

The issue isn't having two large contracts, or even having two large contracts for two corner outfielders (though Trout usually plays CF and would probably play CF for the Phillies early in his hypothetical contract with the Phillies before moving to RF or LF later in his career), the issue is whether Harper is worth a massive contract based on his career up to this point and what would the implications be if he failed to live up to a long term contract for a significant portion of the contract.

 

[wankstifier]

Harper’s fielding metrics last season outlie his career as a RFer. He’s at least average, maybe slightly above average.

On the other hand, Williams is well below average—ie Pat Burrell-like—in the field. For me, Williams is the 4th or 5th OFer on the depth chart right now

 

[CHIP72]

Career OPS of .900 is pretty frigging good.

Also, was Williams a great RFer? Nope. If Harper is just as good as a defender as Williams, but a lot better hitter, that's an improvement.

Harper's career OPS is the average of a couple of spectacular/great seasons, a few good seasons, and a couple of mediocre seasons. He's actually only exceeded that .900 number in two seasons of his career. Offensively-speaking relative to his defensive position, Harper probably could only be classified as a great hitter in two seasons and a very good hitter in two other seasons. He's been roughly average or slightly above average offensively for a corner outfielder in his other three seasons. And as was already noted, he appears to be declining defensively.

Sure, Harper would be an improvement over Nick Williams, but the issue is whether the Phillies could get someone as good or almost as good for a significantly lower price and then use that savings to sign 1-2 other good players to moderately large contracts, or save some of it for a better star/superstar player that they sign 1-2 years from now (while still going after other good, more economically efficient players).

 

[CHIP72]

One more thing I'll add about Bryce Harper and my concerns about him - I came across the following article posted this past Sunday on Bill James Online yesterday from regular contributor Dave Fleming:

How Old Is Bryce Harper?

 

[Hiesenberg]

Harper's career OPS is the average of a couple of spectacular/great seasons, a few good seasons, and a couple of mediocre seasons. He's actually only exceeded that .900 number in two seasons of his career. Offensively-speaking relative to his defensive position, Harper probably could only be classified as a great hitter in two seasons and a very good hitter in two other seasons. He's been roughly average or slightly above average offensively for a corner outfielder in his other three seasons. And as was already noted, he appears to be declining defensively.

Sure, Harper would be an improvement over Nick Williams, but the issue is whether the Phillies could get someone as good or almost as good for a significantly lower price and then use that savings to sign 1-2 other good players to moderately large contracts, or save some of it for a better star/superstar player that they sign 1-2 years from now (while still going after other good, more economically efficient players).

Like seriously? Your argument is that he was only great a few seasons?

 

[CHIP72]

Like seriously? Your argument is that he was only great a few seasons?

Like seriously? Your argument is the Phillies should pay $300+ million over 10 seasons to a player who is only sometimes great and the rest of the time is merely good to very good?

 

[FLYguy3911]

There is definitely risk involved and I don’t think Bryce is quite the superstar this fanbase seems to think he is, but the Phillies are a better team with him than without him. Big market club, in an uncapped sport, with no real significant long term commitments at the moment...you kinda have to go for it.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Like seriously? Your argument is the Phillies should pay $300+ million over 10 seasons to a player who is only sometimes great and the rest of the time is merely good to very good?

Look, if you want to pinch pennies because the guy hasn't won multiple MVPs at 26. That's your prerogative.

 

[Rebels57]

Like seriously? Your argument is the Phillies should pay $300+ million over 10 seasons to a player who is only sometimes great and the rest of the time is merely good to very good?

Does he move them closer to a Championship? Yes.

That's all I care about. It's not my money.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Like seriously? Your argument is the Phillies should pay $300+ million over 10 seasons to a player who is only sometimes great and the rest of the time is merely good to very good?

Yep, and twice on Sunday.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Does he move them closer to a Championship? Yes.

That's all I care about. It's not my money.

Exactly, a Harper bat would push them to probably be a Top 5-8 team in the MLB and if certain things fall right maybe get close to the show. That should be the end game.

 

[Svechhammer]

Its odd, but looking back, something changed when they met with Harper. Before then, they were all in on Machado, but since, it has literally been all about Bryce.

I just hope they don't screw it up. His marketing potential alone could be worth the additional $25m-$50m they're probably talking about now.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Its odd, but looking back, something changed when they met with Harper. Before then, they were all in on Machado, but since, it has literally been all about Bryce.

I just hope they don't screw it up. His marketing potential alone could be worth the additional $25m-$50m they're probably talking about now.

The rumor has always been that the Front Office preferred Machado but Middleton prefers Harper.

 

[Hiesenberg]

The rumor has always been that the Front Office preferred Machado but Middleton prefers Harper.

Salisbury was really the only guy that was all about Machado and I'm sure that was fed to him from guys within the organization.

Personally I wanted Harper for the star recognition alone. He is a superior hitter, also a lefty.