When the Flyers drafted Frost, he wasn't even considered a 1st rd pick by many, he was seen as a reach.
Then last year he steps it up, this year he steps it up another notch.
Problem is hindsight is 20/20, for every Barzal and Frost, there are a half dozen guys who never build on their pre-draft or D+1 season and flatline. Look at Ho-Sang on the same team. 85 points pre-draft, then 81, 82, went to AHL, had a good season, flopped in NY, went back to the AHL, didn't improve, this year he's stepping it up in the AHL but is now 23.
Projection is tough, problem comes when you're overly optimistic and draft "gambles' too high, if you miss in the 1st rd, major issue, if you miss in the 3rd to 5th rd, shrug shoulders, if you miss in the 6th or 7th rd, if a prospect disappears from the back of the list, does anyone notice?