They measure performance based on a certain sample size yes. There are guys playing in the NHL right now who have had a hot half-season who will never have another one again (one-hit wonders). There are guys who are slumping this season. I would never give out a rich long-term contract to a player who hasn't proven himself over a large sample size. It doesn't make sense to me.
Btw here is 2010-13 (3 year) data for the top 72 NHL defenseman (3000+ 5v5 mins) in 5v5 TOI. Unfortunately Hockey Analysis doesn't include this season for multi-year data (there's no 2010-14 or 2011-14 option available on the site). So that 3 year sample doesn't include this season.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC
Dion Phaneuf is ranked 50th/72 in goal differential. He ranks 30th/72 in Defensive Zone Start % (DZFO%) and 63rd/72 in Offensive Zone Start % (OZFO%). You could make the argument that Dion Phaneuf is asked to take on a lot of defensive assignments. But sure let's give 50m+/7yrs to a guy whom we're going to assume is a Top 10 defenseman in the league (after all we're gonna pay him like one). Without a shred of evidence that he's actually capable of being that guy over a long-term sample...
Let him walk. I don't care if he's a UFA and if he can get a better deal with some **** team. I don't care if it's going to take some time for us to groom or acquire an adequate replacement. Dion Phaneuf is not a part of a Stanley Cup winning puzzle. So what if we make the playoffs? Half of the conference makes the playoffs. Big deal. In the playoffs, a team can always get lucky and win a Stanley Cup. 16-28 games is a small sample size compared to 82. But we want to maximize the team's chances of winning a cup.
Top-10 paid UFA defencemen, % of cap taken up when contract signed:
Player | Cap Hit | Salary Cap Upper Limit | % taken up
Suter | $7.54M | $70.2M | 10.7%
Letang | $7.25M | $71.1M | 10.2%
Campbell | $7.14M | $56.7M | 12.6%
Phaneuf | $7.0M | $71.1M | 9.8%
Chara | $6.92M | $64.3M | 10.8%
Boyle | $6.67M | $56.7M | 11.8%
Timonen | $6.0M | $64.3M | 9.3%
Enstrom | $5.75M | $64.3M | 8.9%
Markov | $5.75M | $64.3M | 8.9%
Wisniewski | $5.5M | $64.3M | 8.6%
And all but Letang signed prior to new CBA, so for the two best dmen on that list, Chara and Suter, their % taken up would be a lot higher as Suter's caphit would be around 9 I believe.
For arguement sake,
Boyce 3x7.5,8 or phaneuf deal?
I am getting tired of the "well he would get more on the opening market" argument. It's the same as Clarkson. That doesn't mean he is deserving of it. There are GM's out there who sign horrible contracts constantly, Snow and Sather to name a couple. Lest we forget what Penner signed for in Edmonton. That does not justify us doing the same.
For arguement sake,
Boyle 3x7.5,8 or phaneuf deal?
That's pretty much exactly what it means. You might not 'feel' like something is worth a certain amount of money based on some arbitrary conception of what, say, a $5 item is supposed to be, with no regard whatsoever for any external factors..... but more often than not, if that's the market value, then that's the market value. Just because you used to be able to buy a Coke for 25 cents doesn't mean you're getting ripped off having to pay $1 for one now.I am getting tired of the "well he would get more on the opening market" argument. It's the same as Clarkson. That doesn't mean he is deserving of it.
You can be tired of it all you want, but being 'overpaid' is unfortunately dependant on supply and demand, and the market.
We don't live in a bubble. If we don't sign Phaneuf, we have to replace him. Whether you want to admit it or not, that would take a whole lot more of either
A) tanking (no thank you, again, youre only hoping to someday get another Phaneuf)
B) money (if and when another hits the market, 7M will not even be in the vicinity of asking prices)
7 per for 7 is NOT a horrible contract.
That's pretty much exactly what it means. You might not 'feel' like something is worth a certain amount of money based on some arbitrary conception of what, say, a $5 item is supposed to be, with no regard whatsoever for any external factors..... but more often than not, if that's the market value, then that's the market value.
7 per 4 or 5 is not a horrible contract, 7x7 absolutely is. I think Phaneuf is our best d man, just not one of THE best. We could draft better than the output we get from Phaneuf and whether you want to admit it or not we need to rebuild/tank we are not winning a cup with this team in the next 4 years. Just because Someone like Sather is willing to offer him 7 or more doesn't mean that's fair value.
Market value is not based on the extreme outliers, sorry to say. Most GM's (especially lately) are being more fiscal with their spending on cap hits, especially ones going into the 30s (look at Jbo for reference). Just because one person is willing to spend 100 bucks a share on a Starbucks stock does not mean that automatically becomes market value.
Market value is not based on the extreme outliers, sorry to say. Most GM's (especially lately) are being more fiscal with their spending on cap hits, especially ones going into the 30s (look at Jbo for reference). Just because one person is willing to spend 100 bucks a share on a Starbucks stock does not mean that automatically becomes market value.
But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.
You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.
But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.
You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.
Do you honestly believe that Phaneuf's market value is below 7 million per?
But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.
You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.
Yes you can. That's why you can grow your own beans. The market would be irrelevant.
Datsyuk 7.5m x 3
H Sedin 7.0 x 4
D Sedin 7.0 x 4
Letang 7.2 x 8
That's a sample of the new market.
Does Dion at 7x7 fit into that crowd of newly inked stars?
or is he of the JBO ilk of 5.4m x 5 ?