Rumor: Phaneuf About to Sign 7 Year/$50 Million Deal

[Igy]

Let Phaneuf walk and bring back Lebda for #1 D.

 

[yubbers]

Balls. I remembered them taking it that year. I'm totally wrong

 

[Faltorvo]

They measure performance based on a certain sample size yes. There are guys playing in the NHL right now who have had a hot half-season who will never have another one again (one-hit wonders). There are guys who are slumping this season. I would never give out a rich long-term contract to a player who hasn't proven himself over a large sample size. It doesn't make sense to me.

Btw here is 2010-13 (3 year) data for the top 72 NHL defenseman (3000+ 5v5 mins) in 5v5 TOI. Unfortunately Hockey Analysis doesn't include this season for multi-year data (there's no 2010-14 or 2011-14 option available on the site). So that 3 year sample doesn't include this season.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Dion Phaneuf is ranked 50th/72 in goal differential. He ranks 30th/72 in Defensive Zone Start % (DZFO%) and 63rd/72 in Offensive Zone Start % (OZFO%). You could make the argument that Dion Phaneuf is asked to take on a lot of defensive assignments. But sure let's give 50m+/7yrs to a guy whom we're going to assume is a Top 10 defenseman in the league (after all we're gonna pay him like one). Without a shred of evidence that he's actually capable of being that guy over a long-term sample...

Let him walk. I don't care if he's a UFA and if he can get a better deal with some **** team. I don't care if it's going to take some time for us to groom or acquire an adequate replacement. Dion Phaneuf is not a part of a Stanley Cup winning puzzle. So what if we make the playoffs? Half of the conference makes the playoffs. Big deal. In the playoffs, a team can always get lucky and win a Stanley Cup. 16-28 games is a small sample size compared to 82. But we want to maximize the team's chances of winning a cup.

Dion can easily be a part of a Stanley cup winning puzzle but I highly highly doubt at 7m x 7 years. 5.5m, x5,, 6.0m x 5 like JBO is what he is to a true contender.

 

[Hibachi]

Top-10 paid UFA defencemen, % of cap taken up when contract signed:

Player | Cap Hit | Salary Cap Upper Limit | % taken up
Suter | $7.54M | $70.2M | 10.7%
Letang | $7.25M | $71.1M | 10.2%
Campbell | $7.14M | $56.7M | 12.6%
Phaneuf | $7.0M | $71.1M | 9.8%
Chara | $6.92M | $64.3M | 10.8%
Boyle | $6.67M | $56.7M | 11.8%
Timonen | $6.0M | $64.3M | 9.3%
Enstrom | $5.75M | $64.3M | 8.9%
Markov | $5.75M | $64.3M | 8.9%
Wisniewski | $5.5M | $64.3M | 8.6%

And all but Letang signed prior to new CBA, so for the two best dmen on that list, Chara and Suter, their % taken up would be a lot higher as Suter's caphit would be around 9 I believe.

 

[I Believe]

It's 500k more then he's making now. Just what are we supposed to do exactly, trade the farm for Girardi in a sideways move? Tank when we're a young team on the upswing?

I can't say I like any of those options.

 

[Duke Silver]

And all but Letang signed prior to new CBA, so for the two best dmen on that list, Chara and Suter, their % taken up would be a lot higher as Suter's caphit would be around 9 I believe.

You're talking about if these deals were signed with the maximum length restrictions in place?

Agreed on Suter, but Chara couldn't have possibly signed a longer contract, considering his age.

 

[yubbers]

For arguement sake,

Boyle 3x7.5,8 or phaneuf deal?

 

[topched]

For arguement sake,

Boyce 3x7.5,8 or phaneuf deal?

Tbh could use both, although Replacing Dion with Boyle would be an awful fit... Boyle is a slick pmd, not the guy you want matched up with pwf down low.

We need more good defenseman not the same or less.

Phaneuf at 7x7 is fine, then we should be looking to get Girardi or Orpik for 5-6mil x 5 years or so. Assuming cap goes up and were not bringing back Ranger, Fraser, Reimer and are selective with forwards, this is doable

 

[Banic]

I am getting tired of the "well he would get more on the opening market" argument. It's the same as Clarkson. That doesn't mean he is deserving of it. There are GM's out there who sign horrible contracts constantly, Snow and Sather to name a couple. Lest we forget what Penner signed for in Edmonton. That does not justify us doing the same.

 

[The Apologist]

I am getting tired of the "well he would get more on the opening market" argument. It's the same as Clarkson. That doesn't mean he is deserving of it. There are GM's out there who sign horrible contracts constantly, Snow and Sather to name a couple. Lest we forget what Penner signed for in Edmonton. That does not justify us doing the same.

You can be tired of it all you want, but being 'overpaid' is unfortunately dependant on supply and demand, and the market.

We don't live in a bubble. If we don't sign Phaneuf, we have to replace him. Whether you want to admit it or not, that would take a whole lot more of either
A) tanking (no thank you, again, youre only hoping to someday get another Phaneuf)
B) money (if and when another hits the market, 7M will not even be in the vicinity of asking prices)

7 per for 7 is NOT a horrible contract.

 

[The Apologist]

For arguement sake,

Boyle 3x7.5,8 or phaneuf deal?

What did it take to acquire Boyle? For argument's sake.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

I am getting tired of the "well he would get more on the opening market" argument. It's the same as Clarkson. That doesn't mean he is deserving of it.

That's pretty much exactly what it means. You might not 'feel' like something is worth a certain amount of money based on some arbitrary conception of what, say, a $5 item is supposed to be, with no regard whatsoever for any external factors..... but more often than not, if that's the market value, then that's the market value. Just because you used to be able to buy a Coke for 25 cents doesn't mean you're getting ripped off having to pay $1 for one now.

A UFA signed for $7M/year today is not the same as a UFA signed at a similar cap hit three or four years ago, nor is it remotely the same process as signing an RFA, nor is it comparable to cap-circumventing contracts signed prior to the new CBA, nor will that cap hit occupy even close the same percentage of overall cap space by the contract's end.

 

[Banic]

You can be tired of it all you want, but being 'overpaid' is unfortunately dependant on supply and demand, and the market.

We don't live in a bubble. If we don't sign Phaneuf, we have to replace him. Whether you want to admit it or not, that would take a whole lot more of either
A) tanking (no thank you, again, youre only hoping to someday get another Phaneuf)
B) money (if and when another hits the market, 7M will not even be in the vicinity of asking prices)

7 per for 7 is NOT a horrible contract.

7 per 4 or 5 is not a horrible contract, 7x7 absolutely is. I think Phaneuf is our best d man, just not one of THE best. We could draft better than the output we get from Phaneuf and whether you want to admit it or not we need to rebuild/tank we are not winning a cup with this team in the next 4 years. Just because Someone like Sather is willing to offer him 7 or more doesn't mean that's fair value.

 

[Banic]

That's pretty much exactly what it means. You might not 'feel' like something is worth a certain amount of money based on some arbitrary conception of what, say, a $5 item is supposed to be, with no regard whatsoever for any external factors..... but more often than not, if that's the market value, then that's the market value.

Market value is not based on the extreme outliers, sorry to say. Most GM's (especially lately) are being more fiscal with their spending on cap hits, especially ones going into the 30s (look at Jbo for reference). Just because one person is willing to spend 100 bucks a share on a Starbucks stock does not mean that automatically becomes market value.

 

[The Apologist]

7 per 4 or 5 is not a horrible contract, 7x7 absolutely is. I think Phaneuf is our best d man, just not one of THE best. We could draft better than the output we get from Phaneuf and whether you want to admit it or not we need to rebuild/tank we are not winning a cup with this team in the next 4 years. Just because Someone like Sather is willing to offer him 7 or more doesn't mean that's fair value.

Nobody said 'fair value'. Fair value has nothing to do with the market or reality.
We 'could' draft better than Phaneuf, but its not likely. I do not 'have to admit' nor do I believe that we need to tank to win the Cup. I believe this team is a lot closer than you and many others do.
Again 7x7 is NOT a horrible contract.

 

[Duke Silver]

Market value is not based on the extreme outliers, sorry to say. Most GM's (especially lately) are being more fiscal with their spending on cap hits, especially ones going into the 30s (look at Jbo for reference). Just because one person is willing to spend 100 bucks a share on a Starbucks stock does not mean that automatically becomes market value.

But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.

You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.

 

[The Apologist]

Market value is not based on the extreme outliers, sorry to say. Most GM's (especially lately) are being more fiscal with their spending on cap hits, especially ones going into the 30s (look at Jbo for reference). Just because one person is willing to spend 100 bucks a share on a Starbucks stock does not mean that automatically becomes market value.

Do you honestly believe that Phaneuf's market value is below 7 million per?

 

[likeabosski]

When I filter (copy and pasted into Excel) that sample of 72 NHL defenseman with 3000+ 5v5 mins 2010-13 (3yrs) to just the top 30 in TOI, Dion Phaneuf ranks 22nd/30 in goal differential.

When I pull up the 2011-13 (2yr) sample and filter to the top 30 NHL D-Men in TOI, Phaneuf ranks 23rd/30 in goal differential.

If you look at 2013-14 alone, Dion Phaneuf ranks 4th/68 in goal differential among the top 68 5v5 TOI D-Men. While Phaneuf is on the top pair, Carlyle cut his 5v5 TOI this season (Jake Gardiner leads the team in 5v5 TOI/G and ESTOI/G) to give Phaneuf more a breather for special teams. So I filtered the data to Dion Phaneuf and defenseman who have more 5v5 TOI than Phaneuf.

As you can clearly see, Phaneuf's play has been outstanding this half-season. This is an outlier. He hasn't been playing like this for the Leafs in previous seasons.

Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

I haven't uploaded my Excel tables but if you copy and pasted the data from hockeyanalysis, sort by TOI and then delete the repeated headings and the defenseman after the 31st row (the 1st row is the heading) and then filter by GF%, you can see that Dion Phaneuf is 22nd and 23rd respectively in 2010-13 and 2011-13. For the 2013-14 data, delete all but the first 69 rows (keep header + 68 players).

Considering that some teams rest their star players on the 5v5 to conserve their energy for special teams, it is wrong to assume that the top 30 guys in 5v5 TOI are the #1 D-Men. Some guys have been plagued by injuries as well (though if you're looking at a 3 year sample and you find that a player is injured quite a bit, it's time to start re-evaluating whether that player is worth their contract). Some of those guys in the top 30 5v5 TOI this season (ie. Jake Gardiner) are "big minutes" 2nd pair D-Men. But the source does include larger sample sizes. And Phaneuf doesn't do too hot in those larger samples either (aside from 2013-14 where his 5v5 play is pretty solid.)

 

[Banic]

But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.

You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.

Wrong, anyone can submit a price 100 dollars over to try and increase share price in the market. Except for insiders it's illegal to do.

 

[Faltorvo]

But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.

You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.

Datsyuk 7.5m x 3
H Sedin 7.0 x 4
D Sedin 7.0 x 4
Letang 7.2 x 8

That's a sample of the new market.

Does Dion at 7x7 fit into that crowd of newly inked stars?

or is he of the JBO ilk of 5.4m x 5 ?

 

[Banic]

Do you honestly believe that Phaneuf's market value is below 7 million per?

As I have mentioned a dozen times in this thread. No, I believe his value is likely that, for right now, my argument is on the term of the contract. In 3 years it won't be. It's funny how everyone says my perspective is wrong, but never takes the effort to read what I (and the others who do not support the contract) write.

 

[ECanuck]

But that's precisely what it is. If Starbucks stock is at $100, that is the market value.

You can't subvert the market because you don't like it.

Yes you can. That's why you can grow your own beans. The market would be irrelevant.

 

[stakesishigh]

I'm a little sick of this being a rumour for a few weeks now, kinda want to see something get done.

I'm not a huge Phaneuf fan but I recognize his value and importance to this team. I'll be content as long as it's not over 7m/yr.

 

[Banic]

Yes you can. That's why you can grow your own beans. The market would be irrelevant.

Exactly. It's the same as saying someone offers 4 1st round picks for Cody Franson. That doesn't mean that is currently the going price / setting the market for that level of player. That is simply saying someone out there is dumb enough to do it.

 

[topched]

Datsyuk 7.5m x 3
H Sedin 7.0 x 4
D Sedin 7.0 x 4
Letang 7.2 x 8

That's a sample of the new market.

Does Dion at 7x7 fit into that crowd of newly inked stars?

or is he of the JBO ilk of 5.4m x 5 ?

Couple things about the JBo deal...

1. He's 2 years older than Phaneuf, so that's why the term is shorter
2. This is the first very good year he's had in a while. He was not a better defenseman than Dion during his time in Calgary, you can ask the large chunk of flames fans clambering they traded the wrong guy.
3. Bouwmeester has been known to be extremely temperamental, he's not a big market guy openly admitting that, no doubt he took a discount to stay in St Louis and easily could have gotten better offers in UFA