Rumor: Phaneuf About to Sign 7 Year/$50 Million Deal

[number72]

I do wonder If Dion has truly gotten better defensively or has he been lucky with his unsustainable on-ice SV%.

He has the highest 5 on 5 SV% on the team sitting at 96.2%. This number will inevitably regress at some point obviously. I just wonder if his +/- will plummet along with it when it does. Since this is what the majority of posters seem to correlate his improved +/- with improved defensive play I thought it would be interesting discussion.

http://www.extraskater.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs/2013#performance-charts

Edit: Looks like it's already been brought up...

Great point. I notice the pro-advanced stat crowd are at a loss for words when it shows just how average Phaneuf is. This is the Clarkson contract all over again.
I'm better with overpaying for Kessel who is clearly elite but Phaneuf is closer to average Clarkson then his game is to an elite Kessel.

Over pay for an average talent and you have an average team.

 

[Gallagbi]

Yes, but he did win last year, so its yet another bad contract on a contender.

Not really, not yet at least.

All of these back ended deals should be a gift for teams early, but hurt them in the final few years.

Looking at the deals from a cap management perspective, Chicago is getting a bargain with Keith right now.

 

[New Liskeard]

Great point. I notice the pro-advanced stat crowd are at a loss for words when it shows just how average Phaneuf is. This is the Clarkson contract all over again.
I'm better with overpaying for Kessel who is clearly elite but Phaneuf is closer to average Clarkson then his game is to an elite Kessel.

Over pay for an average talent and you have an average team.

Thankfully Dion is far from an average talent, and a top 15 D in the entire NHL. Not to mention, Phaneuf wanting to re-sign at less than market value is even better. Great news and lots for Leaf fans to be excited about.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Truth is if 7.1 is what Dion is going to sign for, he would probably get more on the open market.

If we go with that cap hit for the next 7-8 years.

Team is squarely pinning hopes of winning cup around:

Kessel and Phaneuf. Let's hope they still have room for growth.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Call this postulating (and maybe it's already been brought up), but is it possible the Leafs are holding into this announcement until the Winter Classic?

‏@RealKyper 7m
#Leafs Phaneuf #NHL contract announcement delayed for HBO 24/7 final episode which will be seen on @Sportsnet . Ah the power of television.

Called it?

 

[The Apologist]

Not really, not yet at least.

All of these back ended deals should be a gift for teams early, but hurt them in the final few years.

Looking at the deals from a cap management perspective, Chicago is getting a bargain with Keith right now.

As would the Phaneuf deal be for the time being. But the concern seems to be what its going to do to the team in the future. Keith could be a very bad situation.

 

[TieClark]

Could he not be influencing the quality of shot as well?

That stat doesn't seem as open and shut as you're suggesting.

Of course he could, but that would entirely go against the not so advanced stats and so they ignore it.

 

[yubbers]

You guys go on arguing about whether hes influencing quality of shot stats. His +/- looks good this year. Let's leave it at that. What about the meat and potatoe stats? -6 in the Boston series. -18 lifetime in the playoffs. Arguing aside, does this not concern you? He has zero post season success.

 

[DD03]

You guys go on arguing about whether hes influencing quality of shot stats. His +/- looks good this year. Let's leave it at that. What about the meat and potatoe stats? -6 in the Boston series. -18 lifetime in the playoffs. Arguing aside, does this not concern you? He has zero post season success.

It takes a team to have post season success. Not one player.

 

[thewave]

Truth is if 7.1 is what Dion is going to sign for, he would probably get more on the open market.

If we go with that cap hit for the next 7-8 years.

Team is squarely pinning hopes of winning cup around:

Kessel and Phaneuf. Let's hope they still have room for growth.

7m is a small raise, the worrisome thing here is the extent of NTC

 

[PokeCheck101]

Both he and Kessel are represented by Newport sports.

They do their job as well as any out there, they wring every cent they can for the player they rep. It matters not to them how it affects the teams they play for.

Well said. Hockey is all about fancy terms UFA, RFA, NTC, NMC, cap, two ways, one ways.... Market share.... Then posters can pretend to be fantasy managers and throw around the lingo. This league needs to look in the mirror and get back to reality. I thought long terms were supposed to disappear instead we're seeing more!

Could people think a bit... What the hell is wrong with signing shorter term performance heavy contracts? Now I'm not a contract wiz like some on here but is there some reason you couldn't pay him 5M base with options of making 7 with some attainable bench marks? Not just him but I throw all high paid players in there too. You have shorter contracts, stagger the lengths for your franchise players. If they don't make the bench marks who can they blame? Management for not padding their wallets as much? That's the problem the tails wagged the dog and now "open market" has become a smorgasbord. It doesn't matter about stats, PO appearances anymore. It's entitlement. Now the more skilled d men like Doughty (far more skilled) use Phaneuf's 7/7 as a start point. Show me performance and I'll show you more money.

 

[Duke Silver]

Name recognition plays a huge role in how fans rate players . It's impossible to follow the entire league and it'd be much easier to come to a consensus on what constitutes an elite player than it would be to form an informed top 20 list of defensemen imo .

Would DP play the same mins he does on a team with a better collection of D ? Mins played means little by itself .

I asked a question you avoided answering so i'll ask again .

If I cut 2 mins off his pp time and gave them to Gards/Reilly would you still consider him a top 20 D with his reduced mins and point production ?

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry christmas.

If Duncan Keith had his minutes cut in half and didn't play on the Blackhawks top PP, would you still consider him a top-20 d-man?

Perhaps we could discuss reality instead of hypotheticals? How dumb.

 

[PokeCheck101]

Great point. I notice the pro-advanced stat crowd are at a loss for words when it shows just how average Phaneuf is. This is the Clarkson contract all over again.
I'm better with overpaying for Kessel who is clearly elite but Phaneuf is closer to average Clarkson then his game is to an elite Kessel.

Over pay for an average talent and you have an average team.

I've provided stats as well and the conversation dries up pretty quick. Same when you try and get these comparisons named or explain Phaneuf's technical skill flaws. But alas people still consider him to be elite. Would folks rather have Doughty or Keith as opposed to Phaneuf? Let's just pretend you could, c'mon fans who would you rather have? Dion, Duncan or Drew?

 

[likeabosski]

Of course he could, but that would entirely go against the not so advanced stats and so they ignore it.

Dion Phaneuf is definitely the team's best defenseman this season. http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice?pos=D&sort=goals_pct&team=tor&min_gp=1

But Dion Phaneuf hasn't consistently put up goal-differential numbers like that in his career...

2013: http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice?sort=goals_pct&pos=D&min_gp=1&season=2012&team=tor

2011-12: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

2010-11: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

2010-13 (3yr data): http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

If you're going to give out 50m+/7yrs to a defenseman, he better have CONSISTENT goal differential stats. I am not convinced that Dion Phaneuf is legit and can maintain that form. His goal differential stats this year are an outlier. Far better than they have been in the last four seasons. You want to give him a rich 7 year contract based on his performance in half a season? Let him walk. ****ing nuts to offer this guy 50m+/7yrs based on his track record within the last few seasons.

 

[yubbers]

It takes a team to have post season success. Not one player.

A real franchise Captain has the ability to do just that.

 

[DD03]

A real franchise Captain has the ability to do just that.

Not a defender. Usually takes a goaltender to do that.

 

[PokeCheck101]

Dion Phaneuf is definitely the team's best defenseman this season. http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice?pos=D&sort=goals_pct&team=tor&min_gp=1

But Dion Phaneuf hasn't consistently put up goal-differential numbers like that in his career...

2013: http://www.extraskater.com/players/on-ice?sort=goals_pct&pos=D&min_gp=1&season=2012&team=tor

2011-12: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

2010-11: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

2010-13 (3yr data): http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=28&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

If you're going to give out 50m+/7yrs to a defenseman, he better have CONSISTENT goal differential stats. I am not convinced that Dion Phaneuf is legit and can maintain that form.

Thank you! Well said and well researched by both of you. I doubt Nonis put as much thought into stats as you've done. Funny how some on here seem to put little consideration on stats. Stats measure performance. Anyone care to disagree?

 

[The Blue Devil]

The vast majority of players with NMC/NC move when they are asked to. Campbell had a modified NTC as well.

As for Keith and Seabrook, most winning teams will have players on good deals. The Hawks also had 'Bulin backing up at a large cap hit as well.

It shows you can win overpaying some players.

Was it Bulin? I thought it was Huet? Either way you'd be right considering both had massive cap hits, just curious.

 

[Hibachi]

So apparently Phaneuf doesn't have a full NMC, he has a partial NTC where he has to list some teams where he will accept a trade to, and obviously you can't send him down to the minors.

 

[Trainspotter]

That start is being highly exaggerated due to exceptional goaltending. He better get reim and bern a car each

He plays more than 1/3 of every game against the toughest competition and by some miracle those happen to be the minutes in which both goaltenders have a better save percentage and fewer GA/20 than in the other 2/3 of the game. What a lucky boy he is, indeed!

Try a little parsimony. He's making very good goaltending better.

 

[The Apologist]

A real franchise Captain has the ability to do just that.

A captain such as?

 

[DD03]

Was it Bulin? I thought it was Huet? Either way you'd be right considering both had massive cap hits, just curious.

I think it was Huet.

 

[PokeCheck101]

Not a defender. Usually takes a goaltender to do that.

Oh so we can single out the goalie but not attribute a playoff appearance to any one skater? If you want to go down that road I'll give you names of players over the past 20 years who've done exactly that and put teams on their backs, made everyone they played with better in the process. Goaltending is crucial no doubt but surely you do not believe a player can not have the same impact. In fact by not saying Dion is that guy, you've effectively ended the debate and the expectations that should come with his 7/7 deal.

 

[The Apologist]

I've provided stats as well and the conversation dries up pretty quick. Same when you try and get these comparisons named or explain Phaneuf's technical skill flaws. But alas people still consider him to be elite. Would folks rather have Doughty or Keith as opposed to Phaneuf? Let's just pretend you could, c'mon fans who would you rather have? Dion, Duncan or Drew?

We don't have the option of either, and if we did, it would certainly cost more than 7m per.

Would you rather have the Sedins or Crosby?

Rask or Crawford?

The problem is, people pick and choose certain stats and ignore the ones that they don't agree with.

 

[The Blue Devil]

A captain such as?

Funny because Sidney Crosby himself doesn't have that kind of ability.