Pettersson vs. Hischier
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Sergei Shirokov
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Crazy that it was considered weak.
Hischier to me was a very worthy #1 pick at the time and nothing has changed that. I would have taken him over Pettersson at the time for sure.
I expect these guys offensive numbers to be about the same this year, probably next too. I think once the Canucks get better (in a few years) you could see Pettersson really take off points wise.
I could also see Hischier having PPG seasons in his prime, he is a very talented player himself. The fact he's so responsible immediately on arrival is impressive. The last guy I can think of like that would be Sean Couturier but Couturier isn't as talented offensively as Hischier.
Hischier to me was a very worthy #1 pick at the time and nothing has changed that. I would have taken him over Pettersson at the time for sure.
I expect these guys offensive numbers to be about the same this year, probably next too. I think once the Canucks get better (in a few years) you could see Pettersson really take off points wise.
I could also see Hischier having PPG seasons in his prime, he is a very talented player himself. The fact he's so responsible immediately on arrival is impressive. The last guy I can think of like that would be Sean Couturier but Couturier isn't as talented offensively as Hischier.
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Elias Pettersson and the Myth of the Two Horse Race article about their scoring potential from pre draft
Blender
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What is it that you think this article demonstrates? It's not even a good analysis or convincing in any way.
Brock Boeser
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It breaks down how lukewarm Patrick and Hischier's draft year production really were, considering it was constantly dubbed a 'two horse race' when it shouldn't have.
I wish Elias had a winger like Taylor Hall to play with, then there wouldn't even be a debate.
Yep. What he’s doing with Eriksson who looks to have come from the dead and Goldobin who has yet to be an NHL regular playing on the wings is amazing. He makes his line mates so much better. And keep in mind he didn’t play a ton of center last year. His two way game is pretty impressive. I noticed that when I watched a lot of his games last year too.
SmellOfVictory
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He has now played two games, and I am fully aboard the hype train. He's very Datsyukian.
Blender
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No it actually doesn't, and that you think it demonstrates this is telling.
The article has a conclusion (that Petterson is the best player in the draft) and crafts an analysis around that conclusion to "prove" that it's true. It's a circular argument. For one, his selection of players is entirely crafted to give him the results he wants, as he excludes plenty of top scoring draft year players from the leagues he's looking at (QMJHL, WHL, Allsvenskan just to reference for U18/U19 years), and even when his model still fails with Pettersson, he just alters it so the numbers fit his conclusion.
In order to even perform the type of points analysis that he attempts to do, you first also have to demonstrate that there is a strong correlation between scoring rates in these leagues from players in their draft year, and future NHL performance. As far as I know, the closest thing that even exists for this is NHLe, which is an attempt to predict NHL performance for players who played in another league the year before. NHLe uses far more data to come up with the factors than this article does, it's not even close. This also ignores the fact that players are not numbers on a spreadsheet, they are people who develop in different ways and at different speeds. Not all players develop in a perfectly linear path that can be easily be predicted on a spreadsheet by looking at their draft year point production. If this were the case, no teams would employ scouts or even analytics staff, they would just use a simple model to compile points by players and rank guys accordingly. Not surprisingly, no team drafts this way.
what Brock Boeser said above but add that this is before he became the highest scoring SHL player of all time as a 19 year old, beating out HOFers and future HOFers along with basically every individual award possible and q monstrous performance in the shl playoffs
Blender
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What Brock Boeser said above was just parroting the article title, and I already addressed it.
Pettersson was not "the highest scoring SHL payer of all time", I'm not sure where you got that from. There is no doubt his SHL season last year was incredibly impressive, but you still have to demonstrate that it can be used to predict his scoring potential in the NHL in a meaningful way. As I have posted in this thread a few times, NHLe would predict him to get 61 points in 82 games this season based on his SHL season, which is a great season for a rookie but not a clear indicator of the generational talent performance being expecting of him by many.
There is no doubt Pettersson has a ton of potential, he went 5th overall after all, but the over hyping of him has long since become ridiculous.
He said as a 19 year old. That is actually factual.
Elite Prospects - SHL Stats All-time season
NHLe is dumb a shit when there is no precedent of someone having Petterssons production as a 19 year old in decades.
Blender
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He didn't say "highest scoring 19 year old of all time", he said "highest scoring SHL player of all time as a 19 year old". The former means what you posted, the latter means he was the highest scoring SHL player ever at 19. I'll assume he meant the former, but it isn't what he said.
Wtf , EP is the highest scoring SHL player ever for a u20 player
WE all know what he meant.
You are stretching it big time.
Blender
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No, you are embarrassing yourself. We ALL know what he meant lmao.
No shit there are other people over 20 who have scored more than 56 points, but thats so far stretched because that was never the narrative ever in any thread ever made.
what you thought I said isnt factually correct.
the other way of interpreting it would make what I said factually correct so why was it so hard for you to come to the correct conclusion?
Blender
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I asked him specifically because his sentence was ambiguous. This is a text based forum, it's important when making arguments to structure your sentences clearly and concisely.
What other people presented as a narrative is irrelevant to what he said. I never claimed other people were saying he was the highest scoring SHL player ever, feel free to quote where I did.
While you're at it, perhaps actually address anything from my post discussing the topic at hand.
People claim things all the time on this forum that aren't true, which is why I asked where that was coming from. It's been answered and I'm fine conceding that you meant that he had the highest scoring 19 year old season.
[QUOTE="Blender, post: 150493745, People claim things all the time on this forum that aren't true, which is why I asked where that was coming from. It's been answered and I'm fine conceding that you meant that he had the highest scoring 19 year old season.[/QUOTE]
dont worry about it text based forums are hard especially when its sports, so many ppl are just bad
anyways, hichier is a drastically better defensive player however his company among point scoring in the SHL is a whole other level above Hichier who I see as an 80p fwd. the people pettersson surpassed in the SHL is astounding, Gradin, Sedins, Naslund, Nilsson, Backstrom and Forsberg among others historically. more recently he trounced players like Nylander, Pastrnak and Wennberg while getting 3x Filip Forsberg points who would easily go #1 in a redraft. in his draft year he got more points than Forsbergs d+1
you're correct in thinking that hichier offensive potential gets underrated around here but Pettersson is on another level as far as just offense is considered. it's like comparing Toews or Bergeron to Backstrom or early Datsyuk, the former dont get talked about in regards to their offense and the latter only get talked about their offense
dont worry about it text based forums are hard especially when its sports, so many ppl are just bad
anyways, hichier is a drastically better defensive player however his company among point scoring in the SHL is a whole other level above Hichier who I see as an 80p fwd. the people pettersson surpassed in the SHL is astounding, Gradin, Sedins, Naslund, Nilsson, Backstrom and Forsberg among others historically. more recently he trounced players like Nylander, Pastrnak and Wennberg while getting 3x Filip Forsberg points who would easily go #1 in a redraft. in his draft year he got more points than Forsbergs d+1
you're correct in thinking that hichier offensive potential gets underrated around here but Pettersson is on another level as far as just offense is considered. it's like comparing Toews or Bergeron to Backstrom or early Datsyuk, the former dont get talked about in regards to their offense and the latter only get talked about their offense
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Yeah and for a text based forum you must make the correct inferences and not take everything for it's literal meaning , especially when you know that meaning could be easily interpreted the wrong way. The incorrect statement you thought he was saying has never been stated once in this forum to be interpreted in that way. EP is the highest scoring player for a u20 player in the SHL. Thats the narrative thats been clearly painted on this forum since he has achieved that record. To interpret it any other way is just trolling unless if you have never heard of the kid before or you are new to the forum. You are just being a grammar nazi.
And like i said NHLe is really dumb to use for a player who has no comparables for decades. Theres no precedence of a player with EP's production. So how are you going to use that formula to predict anything , if it has never happened before?
For example, Auston Matthews NHLe for today would be 45 points. Thats what the NHLe of a player who has Matthews's production in the Swiss league would be projected to have. There isnt a lot of data that can accurately project a player coming out of that league with that production.
Im not sure if NHLe also takes into consideration of age? Because theres a difference if EP put up those numbers as a 25 year old.
Im not sure if NHLe also takes into consideration of age? Because theres a difference if EP put up those numbers as a 25 year old.
Elias GOATtersson
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Uh I'm a Canucks fan, doesn't really matter but I interpreted that as "Pettersson became the highest scoring SHL player of all time", and that he happened to be 19 years old when doing it. Because that's how it was written. Don't get mad at someone for interpreting something correctly, just because the person didn't write what they actually meant (presumably).
Blender
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NHLe is the best we have for that. The article that was posted is woefully inadequate to make any predictions from, and isn't even using as sound of a methodology with as many data points as NHLe does. If there isn't a reliable model to predict his production for this season, the answer doesn't become "therefore 80-90 points", it becomes "I don't know as we have nothing to base it on". This is the problem here, people are jumping to a conclusion about Pettersson and when asked how that conclusion was determined, the answers have been conjecture, very simplistic, or a complete dodge of the question. He might get a ton of points this season, he could just as easily not.
Like i said in my other post, does NHLe take into consideration of age? Theres a difference between putting up those numbers as a 25 year old vs a 19 year old. I took Matthews draft year numbers and it gave me an NHLe of 45 points ...which is far off from what Matthews produced and what he was projected to produce. There isnt a lot of precedence of top talents coming out of the Swiss league. If a 22 year old had those numbers and came into the NHL 61 points sounds decent, but a 19 year old is different. Im not saying hes going to get 80-90 points this year, but im just saying the sky is the limit for the kid. Yeah sure, he could hit lower than 60 points, but id say the chances are just as good for higher than 70.
Everything hes done since hes been drafted has never been done before, which is why we cannot accurately predict this kids ceiling or projection.
Elias GOATtersson
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Looks like NYE is when the Canucks and Devils first meet.. Hopefully we see Pettersson's line against Hischier's. Should be fun
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