Pettersson vs. Hischier

[Blender]

Like i said in my other post, does NHLe take into consideration of age? Theres a difference between putting up those numbers as a 25 year old vs a 19 year old. I took Matthews draft year numbers and it gave me an NHLe of 45 points ...which is far off from what Matthews produced and what he was projected to produce. There isnt a lot of precedence of top talents coming out of the Swiss league. If a 22 year old had those numbers and came into the NHL 61 points sounds decent, but a 19 year old is different. Im not saying hes going to get 80-90 points this year, but im just saying the sky is the limit for the kid. Yeah sure, he could hit lower than 60 points, but id say the chances are just as good for higher than 70.

Everything hes done since hes been drafted has never been done before, which is why we cannot accurately predict this kids ceiling or projection.

There is no additional factor for age, but most players who make the transition from other leagues to the NHL are younger. Obviously all players moving from the junior leagues are younger.

NHLe definitely isn't perfect, and I agree the sample size for players moving from the NLA to the NHL at 18/19 is pretty small. The sample size for American players going over to the NLA for one year and then joining the NHL is probably Matthews. The sample size of players moving from the SHL to the NHL at that age is much larger though, as it has for a long time now been a breeding ground for NHL talent. I'm also not saying NHLe mandates that Pettersson will get 61 points, but it sets a reasonable expectation for him. If he gets around 61 points, he would be right in line with what could reasonably be expected of a player moving from the SHL to the NHL based on their performance in the previous season.

I also agree that it's very difficult to accurately predict his ceiling or expected production, but that is my entire point. People are posting strong positions on this and proclaiming that he will score X amount of points this year or has potential for X amount of points in his career, and I have yet to see a good analysis of where that is even coming from. So far that leads me to believe that these predictions aren't coming from anywhere rational, but an overreaction to a player that people already like and want to see succeed.

While a completely different caliber of player with different circumstances and expectations, I see it similar to the issue with making projections for Jesper Bratt that Devils fans have been struggling with. Last year he made the jump to the NHL at 19 in his D+2 season, something no 6th round pick has done in the modern era, and possibly ever. We struggled on the Devils board all season and right through to now to come to any sort of consensus on where we think he is headed, because what he has done so far is unprecedented and we have no comparables. He's often referred to as the unicorn on the Devils board for this reason. When you have no obvious comparables for a player, it makes it difficult to make accurate predictions because they have done something that hasn't been done before.

 

[Westcoastsniper]

Wtf , EP is the highest scoring SHL player ever for a u20 player


WE all know what he meant.


You are stretching it big time.

He tried to pull this on me earlier in the thread. It's because thats the only argument he can make right now aside from the gp argument.

The only argument you can make against EP is time, because around the end of the season, everyone will know EP > Hischier.

 

[Blender]

He tried to pull this on me earlier in the thread. It's because thats the only argument he can make right now aside from the gp argument.

The only argument you can make against EP is time, because around the end of the season, everyone will know EP > Hischier.

I have made plenty of arguments in this thread, most haven't even been properly responded to or have been glossed over entirely, only to have the same people circle back a day or two later posting their same original argument as if nothing was previously discussed. By "tried to pull this on you", you mean what you posted was nonsense and you still haven't addressed it. Here's the last post from the chain that you never responded to for reference:

5'11" is small for a defenseman, and not that tall for a forward either. Pettersson was 6'2" at the draft combine, he's not at all comparable to the players you listed.

 

[Westcoastsniper]

I have made plenty of arguments in this thread, most haven't even been properly responded to or have been glossed over entirely, only to have the same people circle back a day or two later posting their same original argument as if nothing was previously discussed. By "tried to pull this on you", you mean what you posted was nonsense and you still haven't addressed it. Here's the last post from the chain that you never responded to for reference:

The main point of the chain was that if Pettersson was 20 pound's heavier he could've gone first overall. I said the word "small" and you assumed that meant height and proceeded to say that I had an "agenda". Any person can see I was talking about weight because like you said Pettersson is 6'2. If you aren't able to make those assumptions based on the information given to you, then theres no point listening to any of your analysis' because that show's a lack of attentiveness to data sets.

 

[Blender]

The main point of the chain was that if Pettersson was 20 pound's heavier he could've gone first overall. I said the word "small" and you assumed that meant height and proceeded to say that I had an "agenda". Any person can see I was talking about weight because like you said Pettersson is 6'2. If you aren't able to make those assumptions based on the information given to you, then theres no point listening to any of your analysis' because that show's a lack of attentiveness to data sets.

You posted a list of shorter players to backup your claim that smaller players drop in drafts. I assumed you meant height because the players you listed dropped due to height. What you did was an equivocation fallacy and you have yet to properly respond to my criticism of it. You have yet to post any comparable examples to Pettersson being tall and thin who have dropped in the past like you claim.

 

[Westcoastsniper]

You posted a list of shorter players to backup your claim that smaller players drop in drafts. I assumed you meant height because the players you listed dropped due to height. What you did was an equivocation fallacy and you have yet to properly respond to my criticism of it. You have yet to post any comparable examples to Pettersson being tall and thin who have dropped in the past like you claim.

Again, you fail to make a simple analysis of why I chose those players. Your inability to think more critically is why I will not respond to any of your posts. You can disagree with my posts, but for you to act all dumb and not see the correlation between the players I have chosen and the topic of the thread, then theres no hope for you.

 

[Critical13]

I've heard that Hischier was more NHL ready then Pettersson in their draft year. I also heard Pettersson could have went 1st overall if he was 20 pounds heavier, which was rumored to have been said by executives at the draft.

Sounds made up

 

[Westcoastsniper]

Sounds made up

Very well could be, we'll find out in a couple years.

 

[DDRhockey]

Sounds made up

Elias Petterson- a team, not the Canucks, had EP as 1st overall on their draftboard. Rangers?
An executive also told Friedman that if EP had decided to come to North America on his draft year then he would have gone 1st overall above Hischier. A different Executive disagreed stating that EP was too slight and thin but had no doubt that EP was the most talented.

31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

 

[haulinbass]

Pettersson looks great, but he has a lot to prove in this league. Hischier played 1C an entire season during his rookie year and looked pretty good doing it. Not many players outside of names like Matthews, McDavid, Eichel etc do that. So I'll give it to Hischier but Pettersson certainly has the potential to become the better player.

I think Hischier has a lot of offensive ability to go along with that great defensive play that he has already shown at this level. Only time can tell what he can do with it.

I feel like Hischier gets really underrated.

 

[mouz135]

Sounds made up

Elias Petterson- a team, not the Canucks, had EP as 1st overall on their draftboard. Rangers?
An executive also told Friedman that if EP had decided to come to North America on his draft year then he would have gone 1st overall above Hischier. A different Executive disagreed stating that EP was too slight and thin but had no doubt that EP was the most talented.

31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

Definitely is made up. EP going first OA is not that far fetched.

 

[HOPE]

Pettersson 10 times out of 10.

Never been a Hischier fan, Nothing against him i think he will end up a decent player but not a game changer.

had the same reasoning half way last season... pettersson is just insane, has his body will mature the kid will just be more and more dominant, it's scary!

He'll of a pick by vancouver, the kind of pick that turns a franchise around!

 

[Westcoastsniper]

Elias Petterson- a team, not the Canucks, had EP as 1st overall on their draftboard. Rangers?
An executive also told Friedman that if EP had decided to come to North America on his draft year then he would have gone 1st overall above Hischier. A different Executive disagreed stating that EP was too slight and thin but had no doubt that EP was the most talented.

31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

Now that a more credible source has posted the same information, we can put that to rest.

 

[Blender]

Again, you fail to make a simple analysis of why I chose those players. Your inability to think more critically is why I will not respond to any of your posts. You can disagree with my posts, but for you to act all dumb and not see the correlation between the players I have chosen and the topic of the thread, then theres no hope for you.

So you made a claim and failed to craft a logically consistent argument to support that claim, and it's somehow my fault for just not accepting your claim? This is not how this works.

You claimed Pettersson would have went 1st overall if he was 20 lbs heavier. To support this you said "smaller skill/talented players always get passed up in the draft" (which I agree with), and listed "Karlsson, Gaudreau, Nylander, etc.." (which I also agree dropped for being small), but the Pettersson isn't comparable to these players. This is an equivocation fallacy because you used "smaller" which has multiple correct meanings in a vague way, posted a list of players who dropped due to height, and equated that to Pettersson who is taller and thin. Erik Karlsson was 5'11" 165 lbs in his draft year, William Nylander was 5'11" 169 lbs in his draft year, and Johnny Gaudreau was 5'6" 137 lbs in his draft year. Karlsson also dropped because his combine results were terrible and there were concerns over his skating ability. Pettersson was 6'2" 161 lbs, not exactly the same as the three players you listed. I have asked you repeatedly to provide a list of players who are comparable (tall and thin, rather than shorter), and you have preceded to attack me instead of addressing the flaws in your argument.

Regardless, one or a few anonymous scouts saying if he weighed 20 lbs more he would have went first overall also don't make it so. Teams all have different lists at the draft. I have no problem conceding that there would have been teams that had him ranked #1 had he been 20 lbs heavier, but that isn't a guarantee that he actually goes #1 in the draft. I also think he's probably the most dynamic offensive player from the draft, but that doesn't always mean the best player.

 

[Rempe73]

Here's my unbiased opinion. Last year's draft seemed weak at the time. I never thought Hischier or Patrick were going to be as good as the players usually drafted #1 and #2, but I liked Hischier more than Patrick. When it came to Pettersson, up until a few weeks ago, I thought he was a bit overhyped after his SHL season, but I was wrong. He's a special player. Not too long ago, my opinion was that Hischier would end up being the better player, but I changed my mind after seeing Pettersson play. Also, at least some of Hischier's production was influenced by Hall's monster season. I don't know. I think that Pettersson will end up being the better player, even though Hischier is a beast defensively. Pettersson just has so much upside. I'm kind of like Pronman when I rate players, as I see more value in an offensively gifted player, than a two-way player who produces very good (but not great) offense.

 

[Luminiferous]

Give me Hischier.

 

[lawrence]

Sounds made up

it's actually not made up, we heard rumblings of this being fact shortly after Pettersson got drafted. This is not news to Canucks fans.

 

[135ace]

Both EP and Nico have a ton of potential. I could easily see both becoming top 10 forwards in the league. Nico gets severely underrated because he came after McDavid and Matthews, but he has a ton of upside. He already looks so much stronger and harder to knock off the puck this season and still has a lot to grow. People here just stat-watch though and don't realize that their board favorites like Barzal, Boeser and Nylander came into the league at a much older age with lots more experience. Those 3 guys might have already peaked and have far less upside than guys like Nico or EP.

 

[mattydamon]

Both EP and Nico have a ton of potential. I could easily see both becoming top 10 forwards in the league. Nico gets severely underrated because he came after McDavid and Matthews, but he has a ton of upside. He already looks so much stronger and harder to knock off the puck this season and still has a lot to grow. People here just stat-watch though and don't realize that their board favorites like Barzal, Boeser and Nylander came into the league at a much older age with lots more experience. Those 3 guys might have already peaked and have far less upside than guys like Nico or EP.

You are implying that Barzal/Boeser/Nylander peaked at 21 yrs old???

 

[member 105785]

Here's my unbiased opinion. Last year's draft seemed weak at the time. I never thought Hischier or Patrick were going to be as good as the players usually drafted #1 and #2, but I liked Hischier more than Patrick. When it came to Pettersson, up until a few weeks ago, I thought he was a bit overhyped after his SHL season, but I was wrong. He's a special player. Not too long ago, my opinion was that Hischier would end up being the better player, but I changed my mind after seeing Pettersson play. Also, at least some of Hischier's production was influenced by Hall's monster season. I don't know. I think that Pettersson will end up being the better player, even though Hischier is a beast defensively. Pettersson just has so much upside. I'm kind of like Pronman when I rate players, as I see more value in an offensively gifted player, than a two-way player who produces very good (but not great) offense.

Biggest irony is that Pronman had Pettersson at 17

 

[Icebreakers]

Pronman displays biases against players that makes him less credible. Sure you could have Pettersson at 17, but your negative views should change as time goes on. He listed him behind Kotkaniemi as a prospect like Jesus.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Pronman displays biases against players that makes him less credible. Sure you could have Pettersson at 17, but your negative views should change as time goes on. He listed him behind Kotkaniemi as a prospect like Jesus.

Didn't have Boeser in the first round in '15 either. That one's a little more forgivable than Pettersson but either way Pronman's lost some shine for me.

 

[member 105785]

Didn't have Boeser in the first round in '15 either. That one's a little more forgivable than Pettersson but either way Pronman's lost some shine for me.

Craig Button had B.B. at 9 though

 

[Morgs]

I had Pettersson #1 on draft day, and i didn't even have Hischier #2.

Not changing my mind now.

 

[Strait2thecup]

Both EP and Nico have a ton of potential. I could easily see both becoming top 10 forwards in the league. Nico gets severely underrated because he came after McDavid and Matthews, but he has a ton of upside. He already looks so much stronger and harder to knock off the puck this season and still has a lot to grow. People here just stat-watch though and don't realize that their board favorites like Barzal, Boeser and Nylander came into the league at a much older age with lots more experience. Those 3 guys might have already peaked and have far less upside than guys like Nico or EP.

You just said 2 sophomores may have peaked... take a seat champ